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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shape‐Dependent Multi‐Weight Magnetic Artificial Synapses for Neuromorphic Computing

Abstract In neuromorphic computing, artificial synapses provide a multi‐weight (MW) conductance state that is set based on inputs from neurons, analogous to the brain. Herein, artificial synapses based on magnetic materials that use a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ) and a magnetic domain wall (DW) are explored. By fabricating lithographic notches in a DW track underneath a single MTJ, 3–5 stable resistance states that can be repeatably controlled electrically using spin‐orbit torque are achieved. The effect of geometry on the synapse behavior is explored, showing that a trapezoidal device has asymmetric weight updates with high controllability, while a rectangular device has higher stochasticity, but with stable resistance levels. The device data is input into neuromorphic computing simulators to show the usefulness of application‐specific synaptic functions. Implementing an artificial neural network (NN) applied to streamed Fashion‐MNIST data, the trapezoidal magnetic synapse can be used as a metaplastic function for efficient online learning. Implementing a convolutional NN for CIFAR‐100 image recognition, the rectangular magnetic synapse achieves near‐ideal inference accuracy, due to the stability of its resistance levels. This work shows MW magnetic synapses are a feasible technology for neuromorphic computing and provides design guidelines for emerging artificial synapse technologies.

Leonard, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and calculational investigation of laser-heated additive manufactured foams

Foam materials are starting to find application in laser-heated Hohlraums used to drive inertial confinement fusion implosions. Foams made using additive manufacturing (AM) techniques are now available and may have advantages over traditional chemical (aerogel) foams. Here, we present new experimental data on laser-heated AM foams. Samples of four different types of printed AM foams were heated using a single 527 nm laser beam at the Jupiter Laser Facility. The laser pulse was ∼180 J square pulse with an FWHM of 1.6 ns and a peak intensity of 3–4 × 1014 W/cm2. The foam densities ranged from 12 to 93 mg/cc (all supercritical for 527 nm light). We measured the backscattered light (power and spectrum), the transmitted light, side-on x-ray images, and the Ti K-shell emission that was used to infer the time-integrated temperature. The fraction of backscattered light was 6%–15% of the input laser energy. The pure carbon foam sample had less backscatter than a C8H9O3 foam of similar density, which was consistent with multi-fluid calculations that predicted less ion heating for the C8H9O3 foam. The level of backscatter and the thermal front speeds for the AM foams were similar to values measured for stochastic (aerogel) foams under similar conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural network-based model of galaxy power spectrum: fast full-shape galaxy power spectrum analysis

ABSTRACT We present a neural network-based emulator for the galaxy redshift-space power spectrum that enables several orders of magnitude acceleration in the galaxy clustering parameter inference, while preserving 3$\sigma$ accuracy better than 0.5 per cent up to $k_{\mathrm{max}}$ = 0.25 $\, h\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ within Lambda-cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) and around 0.5 per cent $w_0$–$w_a$CDM. Our surrogate model only emulates the galaxy bias-invariant terms of one-loop perturbation theory predictions, these terms are then combined analytically with galaxy bias terms, counter-terms, and stochastic terms in order to obtain the non-linear redshift-space galaxy power spectrum. This allows us to avoid any galaxy bias prescription in the training of the emulator, which makes it more flexible. Moreover, we include the redshift $z \in [0,1.4]$ in the training which further avoids the need for re-training the emulator. We showcase the performance of the emulator in recovering the cosmological parameters of $\Lambda$CDM by analysing the suite of 25 AbacusSummit simulations that mimic the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument luminous red galaxies at $z=0.5$ and 0.8, together as the emission line galaxies at $z=0.8$. We obtain similar performance in all cases, demonstrating the reliability of the emulator for any galaxy sample at any redshift in $0 \lt z \lt 1.4$. We will make our emulator public at github repository.

Trusov, Svyatoslav (ORCID:0000000224146720)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Competition between roughness and strength for scale-dependent surfaces

Rocks famously have scale-dependent strength, yet the actual dependence is notoriously hard to measure or incorporate into any theoretical framework. Natural rough surfaces present an opportunity to solve the problem. Surfaces sliding in shear evolve as protrusions collide. These asperities can deform or break, thus creating a new surface shape. In particular, natural surfaces have roughness at all scales as well as scale-dependent strength. Based on a scaling analysis, we have previously suggested that the scale-dependent aspect ratio of steady-state surfaces should be proportional to the scale-dependent shear strain at yield. If true, scale-dependent strength could easily be inferred from natural surfaces. Thus, moving beyond the scaling argument to a rigorous treatment of scale-dependent strength for multiscale rough surfaces in shear is important. However, analytic frameworks for analyzing multiscale problems are challenging, as conventional continuum mechanics typically involves a single value for a material property across scales. Here, in this work, we build on the formalism of Persson (2001) that presents a method to compute contact area for rough surfaces with a prescribed topographic spectrum using a stochastic differential equation. The Persson formalism allows for plastic yield under normal loading of otherwise elastic materials and leaves open the possibility of scale-dependent yield stress. In this study, we pursue this route to develop a theory and numerical results for the yielding of a rough, elastoplastic surface with scale-dependent yield stress. Here, we examine surfaces for which the power spectrum of the topography 𝐶 and yield stress 𝑌 follow power laws as a function of scale 𝜆, such that 𝐶∼𝜆 −𝑚 and 𝑌∼𝜆 −𝑛 , respectively. In this formal treatment of the problem, we focus on surfaces in contact and the resulting yield and do not impose shear. Numerical solutions show that the deviation from the elastic scaling solution is bounded as expected by the prior 1D heuristic scaling argument that anticipates the Hurst exponent as 1−𝑛. We also show that the plasticity is expected to erode the contacts if 𝑚 is lower than 𝑛−3, which corresponds to a Hurst exponent lower than 1−𝑛/2. This result is rigorously sound for 2D, i.e., realistic surfaces, and quantitatively different than the prior scaling argument. The theory now permits a correspondingly quantitative approach to interpreting natural surfaces.

elasticity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Edge supercurrent reveals competition between condensates in a Weyl superconductor

In topological materials, the edge states are readily distinguished from the bulk states. The situation where a topological semimetal becomes superconducting so that Cooper pairs occupy both the bulk and the edge states is not well understood. In particular, we do not know if we can force their pairing symmetries to be different. Here we show that, when supercurrent is injected into the superconducting Weyl semimetal MoTe 2 from Nb contacts, the invasive s-wave pairing potential from Nb is incompatible with the intrinsic Cooper pair condensate in MoTe 2 . This incompatibility leads to strong stochasticity in the switching current and an unusual anti-hysteretic behaviour in the current–voltage loops. There is also an asymmetry in the edge oscillations where, as the magnetic field crosses zero, the phase noise switches from one with a noisy spectrum to one that is noise free. Furthermore, using the noise spectrum as a guide, we track the anomalous features to field-induced switching of the device gap function between s-wave symmetry and the unconventional symmetry intrinsic to MoTe 2 . We infer that the behaviour of the gap function along the edges is different from that in the bulk.

Superconducting properties and materials↗
DOE OSTI2020

Filament-induced breakdown spectroscopy with structured beams

Filament-induced ablation represents an attractive scheme for long-range material identification via optical spectroscopy. However, the delivery of laser energy to the target can be severely hindered by the stochastic nature of multiple-filamentation, ionization of ambient gas, and atmospheric turbulence. In order to mitigate some of these adverse effects, we examine the utility of beam shaping for femtosecond filament-induced breakdown spectroscopy with Gaussian and structured (Laguerre-Gaussian, Airy, and Bessel-Gaussian) beams in the nonlinear regime. Interaction of filaments with copper, zinc, and brass targets was studied by recording axially-resolved broadband emission from the filament-induced plasma. The laser-solid coupling efficacy was assessed by inferring thermodynamic parameters such as excitation temperature and electron density. While under our experimental conditions the ablation rate with Gaussian- and Laguerre-Gaussian beams is found to be similar, the Airy and Bessel-Gaussian beams offer the advantage of longitudinally extended working zones. These results provide insights into potential benefits of structuring ultrafast laser beams for standoff sensing applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Treatment of Inverse Problems Constrained by Differential Equations-based Models with Stochastic Terms

This paper introduces a statistical treatment of inverse problems constrained by models with stochastic terms. The solution of the forward problem is given by a distribution represented numerically by an ensemble of simulations. The goal is to formulate the inverse problem, in particular the objective function, to find the closest forward distribution (i.e., the output of the stochastic forward problem) that best explains the distribution of the observations in a certain metric. We use proper scoring rules, a concept employed in statistical forecast verification, namely energy, variogram, and hybrid (i.e., combination of the two) scores. We study the performance of the proposed formulation in the context of two applications: a coefficient field inversion for subsurface flow governed by an elliptic partial differential equation with a stochastic source and a parameter inversion for power grid governed by differential-algebraic equations. In both cases we show that the variogram and the hybrid scores produce better parameter inversion results than does the energy score, whereas the energy score leads to better probabilistic predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scaling kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations of grain growth with combined convolutional and graph neural networks

Graph neural networks (GNN) have emerged as a promising machine learning method for microstructure simulations such as grain growth. However, accurate modeling of realistic grain boundary networks requires large simulation cells, which GNN has difficulty scaling up to. To alleviate the computational costs and memory footprint of GNN, we suggest a hybrid architecture combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) based bijective autoencoder to compress the spatial dimensions, and a GNN that evolves the microstructure in the latent space of reduced spatial sizes. Our results demonstrate that the new design significantly reduces computational costs with using fewer message passing layer (from 12 down to 3) compared with GNN alone. The reduction in computational cost becomes more pronounced as the spatial size increases, indicating strong computational scalability. For the largest mesh evaluated (160 3 ), our method reduces memory usage and runtime in inference by 117× and 115×, respectively, compared with GNN-only baseline. More importantly, it shows higher accuracy and stronger spatiotemporal capability than the GNN-only baseline, especially in long-term testing. Such combination of scalability and accuracy is essential for simulating realistic material microstructures over extended time scales. The improvements can be attributed to the bijective autoencoder’s ability to compress information losslessly from spatial domain into a high dimensional feature space, thereby producing more expressive latent features for the GNN to learn from, while also contributing its own spatiotemporal modeling capability. Training data are generated from stochastic grain growth simulations, providing realistic variability for learning robust microstructure evolution. Comprehensive system validation confirms that the model is accurate, robust, and scalable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

General-Purpose Bayesian Tensor Learning With Automatic Rank Determination and Uncertainty Quantification

A major challenge in many machine learning tasks is that the model expressive power depends on model size. Low-rank tensor methods are an efficient tool for handling the curse of dimensionality in many large-scale machine learning models. The major challenges in training a tensor learning model include how to process the high-volume data, how to determine the tensor rank automatically, and how to estimate the uncertainty of the results. While existing tensor learning focuses on a specific task, this paper proposes a generic Bayesian framework that can be employed to solve a broad class of tensor learning problems such as tensor completion, tensor regression, and tensorized neural networks. We develop a low-rank tensor prior for automatic rank determination in nonlinear problems. Our method is implemented with both stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD). We compare the automatic rank determination and uncertainty quantification of these two solvers. We demonstrate that our proposed method can determine the tensor rank automatically and can quantify the uncertainty of the obtained results. We validate our framework on tensor completion tasks and tensorized neural network training tasks.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Magnetized Strongly Turbulent Corona as the Source of Neutrinos from NGC 1068

Abstract The cores of active galactic nuclei are potential accelerators of 10–100 TeV cosmic rays, in turn producing high-energy neutrinos. This picture was confirmed by the compelling evidence of a TeV neutrino signal from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068, leaving open the question of what is the site and mechanism of cosmic-ray acceleration. One candidate is the magnetized turbulence surrounding the central supermassive black hole. Recent particle-in-cell simulations of magnetized turbulence indicate that stochastic cosmic-ray acceleration is nonresonant, in contrast to the assumptions of previous studies. We show that this has important consequences on a self-consistent theory of neutrino production in the corona, leading to a more rapid cosmic-ray acceleration than previously considered. The turbulent magnetic-field fluctuations needed to explain the neutrino signal are consistent with a magnetically powered corona. We find that strong turbulence, with turbulent magnetic energy density higher than 1% of the rest-mass energy density, naturally explains the normalization of the IceCube neutrino flux, in addition to the neutrino spectral shape. Only a fraction of the protons in the corona, which can be directly inferred from the neutrino signal, are accelerated to high energies. Thus, in this framework, the neutrino signal from NGC 1068 provides a testbed for particle acceleration in magnetized turbulence.

Fiorillo, Damiano F. G. (ORCID:0000000349279850)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Runaway electron seed formation at reactor-relevant temperature

Systematic variation of the pre-disruption core electron temperature (T e ) from 1 to 12 keV using an internal transport barrier scenario reveals a dramatic increase in the production of ‘seed’ runaway electrons (REs), ultimately accessing near-complete conversion of the pre-disruption current into sub-MeV RE current. Injected Ar pellets are observed to ablate more intensely and promptly as T e rises. At high T e , the observed ablation exceeds predictions from published thermal ablation models. Simultaneously, the thermal quench (TQ) is observed to significantly shorten with increasing T e —a surprising result. While the reason for the shorter TQ is not yet understood, candidate mechanisms include: insufficiently accurate thermal ablation models, enhanced ablation driven by the seed RE population, or significant parallel heat transport along stochastic fields. Kinetic modeling that self-consistently treats the plasma cooling via radiation, the induced electric field, and the formation of the seed RE is performed. Including the combined effect of the inherent dependence of hot-tail RE seeding on T e together with the shortened TQ, modeling recovers the progression towards near-complete conversion of the pre-disruption current to RE current as T e rises. Measurement of the HXR spectrum during the early current quench (CQ) reveals a trend of decreasing energy with pre-disruption T e . At the very highest T e (≈ 12 keV), ≈ 100% conversion of the thermal current to runaway current is found. The energy of this peculiar RE beam is inferred to be sub-MeV as it emits vanishingly few MeV hard x-rays (HXRs). These measurements demonstrate novel TQ dynamics as Te is varied and illustrate the limitations of treating the RE seed formation problem without considering the inter-related dependencies of the pellet ablation, radiative energy loss, and resultant variations of the TQ duration. Finally, if the observed shortening of the TQ with increasing T e extends to fusion-grade plasmas, than their propensity to form large quantities of RE seeds at high T e may be far worse than previously thought. Positively, the high T e scenario in DIII-D produces REs so prodigiously that it can serve as a meaningful new platform for demonstrating RE avoidance techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-resolution radiation detection using Ni/SiO 2 /n-4H-SiC vertical metal-oxide-semiconductor capacitor

In this article, we demonstrate the radiation detection performance of vertical metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) capacitors fabricated on 20 μm thick n-4H-SiC epitaxial layers with the highest energy resolution ever reported. The 100 nm SiO2 layer was achieved on the Si face of n-4H-SiC epilayers using dry oxidation in air. The Ni/SiO2/n-4H-SiC MOS detectors not only demonstrated an excellent energy resolution of 0.42% (ΔE/E 100) for 5.48 MeV alpha particles but also caused a lower enhancement in the electronic noise components of the spectrometer compared with that observed for the best high-resolution Schottky barrier detectors. The MOS detectors also exhibited a high charge collection efficiency (CCE) of 96% at the optimized operating bias despite the presence of the oxide layer. A drift-diffusion model applied to the CCE vs gate bias voltage data revealed a minority (hole) carrier diffusion length of 24 μm. Capacitance mode deep level transient spectroscopy (C-DLTS) scans in the temperature range 84–800 K were carried out to identify the resolution limiting electrically active defects. Interestingly, the C-DLTS spectra revealed both positive and negative peaks, indicating the simultaneous presence of electron (majority) and hole (minority) trap centers. It has been inferred that at the steady-state bias for the C-DLTS measurement, the MOS detector operates in the inversion mode at certain device temperatures, causing holes to populate the minority trap centers and, hence, manifests minority carrier peaks as well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic picture for particle number densities in stretched tips of the branching Brownian motion

Abstract In the framework of a stochastic picture for the one-dimensional branching Brownian motion, we compute the probability density of the number of particles near the rightmost one at a time T , that we take very large, when this extreme particle is conditioned to arrive at a predefined position x T chosen far ahead of its expected position m T . We recover the previously conjectured fact that the typical number density of particles at a distance Δ to the left of the lead particle, when both Δ and are large, is smaller than the mean number density by a factor proportional to , where ζ is a constant that was so far undetermined. Our picture leads to an expression for the probability density of the particle number, from which a value for ζ may be inferred.

Physics↗