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At least 109 records · Page 6

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven optimization of mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower integrated planning and scheduling problems under demand uncertainty

The coordination of interconnected elements across the different layers of the supply chain is essential for all industrial processes and the key to optimal decision-making. Yet, the modeling and optimization of such interdependent systems are still burdensome. Here we address the simultaneous modeling and optimization of medium-term planning and short-term scheduling problems under demand uncertainty using mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower programming and data-driven optimization. Bi-level multi-follower programs model the natural hierarchy between different layers of supply chain management holistically, while scenario analysis and data-driven optimization allow us to retrieve the guaranteed feasible solutions of the integrated formulation under various demand considerations. We address the data-driven optimization of this challenging class of problems using the DOMINO framework, which was initially developed to solve single-leader single-follower bi-level optimization problems to guaranteed feasibility. This framework is extended to solve single-leader multi-follower stochastic formulations and its performance is characterized by well-known single and multi-product process scheduling case studies. Through our data-driven algorithmic approach, we present guaranteed feasible solutions to linear and nonlinear mixed-integer bi-level formulations of simultaneous planning and scheduling problems and further characterize the effects of the scheduling level complexity on the solution performance, which spans over several hundred continuous and binary variables, and thousands of constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Evaluation of the Economic and Resilience Benefits of a Microgrid in Northampton, Massachusetts

Recent developments and advances in distributed energy resource (DER) technologies make them valuable assets in microgrids. This paper presents an innovative evaluation framework for microgrid assets to capture economic benefits from various grid and behind-the-meter services in grid-connecting mode and resilience benefits in islanding mode. In particular, a linear programming formulation is used to model different services and DER operational constraints to determine the optimal DER dispatch to maximize economic benefits. For the resiliency analysis, a stochastic evaluation procedure is proposed to explicitly quantify the microgrid survivability against a random outage, considering uncertainties associated with photovoltaic (PV) generation, system load, and distributed generator failures. Optimal coordination strategies are developed to minimize unserved energy and improve system survivability, considering different levels of system connectedness. The proposed framework has been applied to evaluate a proposed microgrid in Northampton, Massachusetts that would link the Northampton Department of Public Works, Cooley Dickenson Hospital, and Smith Vocational Area High School. The findings of this analysis indicate that over a 20-year economic life, a 441 kW/441 kWh battery energy storage system, and 386 kW PV solar array can generate $2.5 million in present value benefits, yielding a 1.16 return on investment ratio. Results of this study also show that forming a microgrid generally improves system survivability, but the resilience performance of individual facilities varies depending on power-sharing strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Stochastic robustness

To carry out stochastic robustness analysis, an expected probability distribution is assigned to each uncertain parameter in the system. The Monte Carlo analysis proceeds by repeatedly assigning shaped random values to each plant parameter, evaluating the stability of performance metric, and performing the binary classification (stable/unstable, etc.). If the system is stable, the state response to a unit disturbance impulse can be propagated to establish whether the response would violate settling time envelopes and whether peak actuator use would violate predetermined maximums. The final estimates of the probability of each form of unacceptable behavior are found by dividing the number of cases in which the overall system had that form of unacceptability by the number of cases run. Stability robustness can be portrayed graphically using the stochastic root locus and by using histograms of parameter values found in the unacceptable cases.

Marrison, C.↗

NESC GN&C TDT Workshop on 2D Image Motion Optical Transfer Functions, Pointing Performance Analysis, and Requirements

What You Will Learn: The focus is on payload imaging performance due to pointing motion. Some historical background on pointing performance analysis is given. The Optical Transfer Function (OTF) and Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) are defined. The imaging performance due to pointing motion is measured by image motion optical transfer functions (IM OTF). IM OTFs are defined for displacement, smear, and jitter motions, which are all rigorously defined. Deterministic and Statistical IM OTFs are briefly derived and graphically illustrated and compared. The IM OTFs are parameterized by pointing error metrics(PEM), which are means and covariances of displacement, smear, and jitter. Emphasis is on procedures and algorithms to evaluate the image motion optical transfer functions and pointing error metrics. Three procedures are covered, which depend on whether the pointing error data is from time-domain simulation, frequency-domain analysis, or stochastic modeling. A method to evaluate the relative contribution of disturbance sources and to identify the most significant contributors is presented. The presentation includes pertinent discussion of flexible structures and control-structure interaction. No single book can adequately cover this subject, so a book is not required for the course. A list of selected articles, reports, documents, and books is provided for reference and further study. Mathis kept to the minimum necessary to convey principles; lengthy derivations are left to the reference material. Graphics are used to illustrate concepts. As with any such learning endeavor, the knowledge gained will be retained and strengthened through actual practice.c©2019–2021 Mark E. Pittelkau— 5

NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC)↗

Theory of x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy for multiscale flows

Complex multiscale flows associated with instabilities and turbulence are commonly induced under high-energy density (HED) conditions, but accurate measurement of their transport properties has been challenging. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) with coherent x-ray sources can, in principle, probe material dynamics to infer transport properties using time autocorrelation of density fluctuations. Here we develop a theoretical framework for utilizing XPCS to study material diffusivity in multiscale flows. We extend single-scale shear flow theories to broadband flows using a multiscale analysis that captures shear and diffusion dynamics. Our theory is validated with simulated XPCS for Brownian particles advected in multiscale flows. We demonstrate the versatility of the method over several orders of magnitude in timescale using sequential-pulse XPCS, single-pulse x-ray speckle visibility spectroscopy (XSVS), and double-pulse XSVS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities (Revision 1)

This project will demonstrate a multi-hazard time-dependent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach for nuclear facilities considering aging-related deterioration of structures. A generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor subjected to seismic mainshock-aftershock sequences considering the aging of the containment structure will be used as a case study to demonstrate the multi-hazard PRA approach. Using advanced modeling and simulation, seismic mainshock-aftershock fragility functions will be simulated for the containment structure considering aging effects. A multi-hazard PRA model for a generic PWR reactor will be built to quantify the multi-hazard core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) with explicit time-dependent modeling of event sequences. To date, the cascading impacts of multi-hazards are not adequately accounted for in the PRA models for nuclear facilities. In addition, for both initial and periodic evaluation of facilities to withstand natural phenomena hazards (NPH), deterioration of the SSCs due to aging and other effects is not adequately considered. By advancing multi-hazard considerations accounting for aging effects, this project will contribute to improved understanding of the safety of aging nuclear facilities. Project outcomes such as the multi-hazard CDF and LERF will also allow facility owners to optimize upgrade and retrofit protocols. This project is divided into two components: (1) advanced modeling and simulations; and (2) multi-hazard PRA. For the first component, Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) and BlackBear codes will be used to simulate the seismic response and damage of a containment structure under cascading mainshock-aftershock sequences with aging effects. Uncertainties related to the seismic inputs, material parameters, and environmental factors such as temperature and humidity will be identified and propagated to the fragility functions. These fragility functions, which consider aging effects, will be time dependent. The second component will take the fragility information from the first component to build a multi-hazard time-dependent PRA model starting from a generic PWR model to evaluate the multi-hazard CDF and LERF and characterize the associated consequences. For this component, OpenPRA Web Application and SAPHIRE code will be used. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of considering the cascading impacts of multi-hazards for PRA. Moreover, many of the reactors in the current nuclear fleet in the United States (US) are already operating well beyond their initially planned design life, and applications for further extensions to operating licenses are being considered. Therefore, considering multi-hazard effects and aging deterioration in the NPH risk assessment process will contribute to the safety of both existing and future nuclear facilities. Outcomes of this project will thus directly benefit the standards DOE-STD-1020-16 and DOE-HDBK-1224-18.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Surface fluctuating hydrodynamics methods for the drift-diffusion dynamics of particles and microstructures within curved fluid interfaces

Here we introduce fluctuating hydrodynamics approaches on surfaces for capturing the drift-diffusion dynamics of particles and microstructures immersed within curved fluid interfaces of spherical shape. We take into account the interfacial hydrodynamic coupling, traction coupling with the surrounding bulk fluid, and thermal fluctuations. For fluid-structure interactions, we introduce Immersed Boundary Methods (IBM) and related Stochastic Eulerian-Lagrangian Methods (SELM) for curved surfaces. We use these approaches to investigate the statistics of surface fluctuating hydrodynamics and microstructures. For velocity autocorrelations, we find characteristic power-law scalings $τ^{-1}, τ^{-2}$, and plateaus can emerge. This depends on the physical regime associated with the geometry, surface viscosity, and bulk viscosity. This differs from the characteristic $τ^{-3/2}$ scaling for bulk three dimensional fluids. We develop theory explaining these observed power-laws associated with time-scales for dissipation within the fluid interface and coupling to the surrounding fluid. We then use our introduced methods to investigate a few example systems and roles of hydrodynamic coupling and thermal fluctuations including for the kinetics of passive particles and active microswimmers in curved fluid interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Identification of Solid-Electrolyte Interphase Species by Joint Characterization of Li-Ion Battery Chemistry by Mass Spectrometry and Electrochemical Reaction Networks

The formation and stability of the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) play central roles in determining the long-term performance and safety of modern electrochemical energy storage systems. Despite decades of research, the SEI’s heterogeneous, dynamic, and multiphase nature has defied comprehensive molecular-level characterization, creating a critical knowledge gap that limits rational battery design. In this work, we introduce a computational−experimental framework that integrates high-throughput quantum chemistry calculations, data-driven electrochemical reaction networks (eCRNs), stochastic algorithms, and laser desorption/ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (LDI-FTICR-MS) to unravel SEI formation in carbonatebased electrolytes without imposing predefined mechanisms. We constructed the most comprehensive eCRN to date, spanning over 10,000 species and 209 million reactions. Through stochastic network analysis, we successfully recovered 27 species that were previously reported in the literature and predicted 28 novel SEI species nearly doubling our scientific knowledge in this area. Each new species was rigorously confirmed through advanced mass spectral analysis of its distinct molecular and isotopic signatures. We kinetically refined the formation pathways for a select set of both previously reported and novel SEI products, revealing kinetically feasible elementary reaction mechanisms with activation barriers below 1 eV. This computational−experimental approach deepens our molecular-level understanding of SEI chemistry by resolving which species form and through which decomposition mechanisms they emerge. Such knowledge provides the foundation necessary to connect electrolyte composition to the resulting SEI components, a critical step toward a more informed electrolyte development in next-generation lithium-based batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thermal fluctuations in the Landau-Lifshitz-Bloch model

A formulation for thermal noise in the stochastic form of the Landau-Lifshitz-Bloch equation used for modeling the magnetization dynamics at elevated temperatures is presented here. The diffusion coefficients for thermal fluctuations are obtained via the Fokker-Plank equation using the mean-field approximation of the field in defining the free energy. The presented model leads to a mean magnetization consistent with the equilibrium magnetization for small and large particles. The distribution of the magnetization magnitude is of the Maxwell-Boltzmann type. The presented model was tested by studying the equilibrium magnetization in macrospin particles at high temperatures. The model is appealing for multiscale modeling, such as modeling heat assisted magnetic recording systems and all-optical magnetization reversal.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Velocity-space compression from Fermi acceleration with Lorentz scattering

The Fermi acceleration model describes how cosmic ray particles accelerate to great speeds by interacting with moving magnetic fields. In this work, we identify a variation of the model where light ions interact with a moving wall while undergoing pitch angle scattering through Coulomb collisions due to the presence of a heavier ionic species. The collisions introduce a stochastic component which adds complexity to the particle acceleration profile and sets it apart from collisionless Fermi acceleration models. The unusual effect captured by this simplified variation of Fermi acceleration is the nonconservation of phase space, with the possibility for a distribution of particles initially monotonically decreasing in energy to exhibit an energy peak upon compression. A peaked energy distribution might have interesting applications, such as to optimize fusion reactivity or to characterize astrophysical phenomena that exhibit nonthermal features.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling and Analysis of DC Microgrids as Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This study proposes a method of predicting the influence of random load behavior on the dynamics of dc microgrids and distribution systems. This is accomplished by combining stochastic load models and deterministic microgrid models. Together, these elements constitute a stochastic hybrid system. The resulting model enables straightforward calculation of dynamic state moments, which are used to assess the probability of desirable operating conditions. Specific consideration is given to systems based on the dual active bridge (DAB) topology. Bounds are derived for the probability of zero voltage switching (ZVS) in DAB converters. A simple example is presented to demonstrate how these bounds may be used to improve ZVS performance as an optimization problem. In conclusion, predictions of state moment dynamics and ZVS probability assessments are verified through comparisons to Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ExaGO v2

ExaGO is a high-performance computing power systems modeling suite providing models for different power flow analyses. It supports forward AC power flow, multiperiod AC and DC optimal power flow analyses, contingency analysis, as well as stochastic optimal power flow analysis. ExaGO can use HiOp and Ipopt optimization engines. It supports Matpower and PSS/E input file formats. ExaGO v2 includes code from ExaGO 1.6.0.

Peles, Slaven [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predictive Complexity of Quantum Subsystems

We define predictive states and predictive complexity for quantum systems composed of distinct subsystems. This complexity is a generalization of entanglement entropy. It is inspired by the statistical or forecasting complexity of predictive state analysis of stochastic and complex systems theory but is intrinsically quantum. Predictive states of a subsystem are formed by equivalence classes of state vectors in the exterior Hilbert space that effectively predict the same future behavior of that subsystem for some time. As an illustrative example, we present calculations in the dynamics of an isotropic Heisenberg model spin chain and show that, in comparison to the entanglement entropy, the predictive complexity better signifies dynamically important events, such as magnon collisions. It can also serve as a local order parameter that can distinguish long and short range entanglement.

Asplund, Curtis T. (ORCID:0000000305575850)↗

Application of the GERTS II simulator in the industrial environment.

GERT was originally developed to aid in the analysis of stochastic networks. GERT can be used to graphically model and analyze complex systems. Recently a simulator model, GERTS II, has been developed to solve GERT Networks. The simulator language used in the development of this model was GASP II A. This paper discusses the possible application of GERTS II to model and analyze (1) assembly line operations, (2) project management networks, (3) conveyor systems and (4) inventory systems. Finally, an actual application dealing with a job shop loading problem is presented.

Whitehouse, G. E.↗