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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Complex patterns of abnormal heartbeats

Individuals having frequent abnormal heartbeats interspersed with normal heartbeats may be at an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. However, mechanistic understanding of such cardiac arrhythmias is limited. We present a visual and qualitative method to display statistical properties of abnormal heartbeats. We introduce dynamical "heartprints" which reveal characteristic patterns in long clinical records encompassing approximately 10(5) heartbeats and may provide information about underlying mechanisms. We test if these dynamics can be reproduced by model simulations in which abnormal heartbeats are generated (i) randomly, (ii) at a fixed time interval following a preceding normal heartbeat, or (iii) by an independent oscillator that may or may not interact with the normal heartbeat. We compare the results of these three models and test their limitations to comprehensively simulate the statistical features of selected clinical records. This work introduces methods that can be used to test mathematical models of arrhythmogenesis and to develop a new understanding of underlying electrophysiologic mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmia.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1992

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

Chao, Luen-Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum mechanical closure of partial differential equations with symmetries

We develop a statistical framework for the dynamical closure of spatiotemporal dynamics governed by partial differential equations. Employing the mathematical framework of quantum mechanics to embed the original classical dynamics into a quantum mechanical representation, we use the space of quantum density operators to model the unresolved degrees of freedom of the original dynamics in a statistical sense, and the framework of quantum measurement to predict their contributions to the resolved dynamics. The embedded dynamics is discretized by a positivity preserving process, leading to a compressed representation that is invariant under the dynamical symmetries of the resolved dynamics. We present a data based formulation of the closure scheme and apply it to a closure problem for the shallow water equations. The numerical results demonstrate that our closure model can accurately predict the main features of the true dynamics, including for out of sample initial conditions.

Delay embedding↗
NASA NTRS1984

Martian crater dark streak lengths - Explanation from wind tunnel experiments

The mechanism determining the length of dark erosional (type-Id) streaks near craters and hills on the surface of Mars is investigated using Mariner-9 images and the results of wind-tunnel studies (Greeley et al., 1974; Iversen et al., 1975 and 1976). An empirical model of time-dependent growth of crater-wake streaks in the downwind direction involving deflation by sand-grain saltation is developed and shown to give relatively good agreement with streak growth rates observed over a 38-day period of Mariner observations and with the streak-length/crater-diameter and streak-length/crater-height ratios analyzed statistically by Lee (1984). This time-dependent mechanism is thus considered a reasonable alternative (for dark streaks) to the blocking model proposed by Lee for both bright and dark streaks. Preliminary analysis of further wind-tunnel experiments (Iversen et al., 1982) supports the blocking model of bright-streak formation.

Iversen, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Causal Approach to Model Validation and Calibration

This poster presents a novel method for validation and verification that focuses on identifying causal relationships between data elements, moving beyond traditional statistical and machine learning approaches. These methods employ causal discovery techniques to reveal the underlying mechanisms of data generation. The research utilizes structural causal models and directed acyclic graphs to depict causal relationships. This approach assists in achieving alignment between simulation models and reality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for new physics in high-mass diphoton events from proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{\textrm{s}} $ = 13 TeV

Results are presented from a search for new physics in high-mass diphoton events from proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV. The data set was collected in 2016–2018 with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. Events with a diphoton invariant mass greater than 500 GeV are considered. Two different techniques are used to predict the standard model backgrounds: parametric fits to the smoothly-falling background and a first-principles calculation of the standard model diphoton spectrum at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics calculations. The first technique is sensitive to resonant excesses while the second technique can identify broad differences in the invariant mass shape. The data are used to constrain the production of heavy Higgs bosons, Randall-Sundrum gravitons, the large extra dimensions model of Arkani-Hamed, Dimopoulos, and Dvali (ADD), and the continuum clockwork mechanism. No statistically significant excess is observed. The present results are the strongest limits to date on ADD extra dimensions and RS gravitons with a coupling parameter greater than 0.1.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strong Hilbert space fragmentation and fractons from subsystem and higher-form symmetries

Here, we introduce a route to Hilbert space fragmentation in high dimensions leveraging the group-word formalism. We show that taking strongly fragmented models in one dimension and “lifting” to higher dimensions using subsystem symmetries can yield strongly fragmented dynamics in higher dimensions, with subdimensional (e.g., lineonic) excitations. This provides a route to higher-dimensional strong fragmentation, and also a route to fractonic behavior. Meanwhile, lifting one-dimensional fragmented models to higher dimensions using higher-form symmetries yields models with topologically robust fragmentation. In three or more spatial dimensions, one can also “mix and match” subsystem and higher-form symmetries, leading to canonical fracton models such as X cube. We speculate that this approach could also yield a route to non-Abelian fractons. These constructions unify a number of phenomena that have been discussed in the literature, as well as furnishing models with unique properties.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Hierarchical Approach to Fracture Mechanics

Recent research conducted under NASA LaRC's Creativity and Innovation Program has led to the development of an initial approach for a hierarchical fracture mechanics. This methodology unites failure mechanisms occurring at different length scales and provides a framework for a physics-based theory of fracture. At the nanoscale, parametric molecular dynamic simulations are used to compute the energy associated with atomic level failure mechanisms. This information is used in a mesoscale percolation model of defect coalescence to obtain statistics of fracture paths and energies through Monte Carlo simulations. The mathematical structure of predicted crack paths is described using concepts of fractal geometry. The non-integer fractal dimension relates geometric and energy measures between meso- and macroscales. For illustration, a fractal-based continuum strain energy release rate is derived for inter- and transgranular fracture in polycrystalline metals.

Saether, Erik↗
NASA NTRS2012

Pulsar Emission Geometry and Accelerating Field Strength

The high-quality Fermi LAT observations of gamma-ray pulsars have opened a new window to understanding the generation mechanisms of high-energy emission from these systems, The high statistics allow for careful modeling of the light curve features as well as for phase resolved spectral modeling. We modeled the LAT light curves of the Vela and CTA I pulsars with simulated high-energy light curves generated from geometrical representations of the outer gap and slot gap emission models. within the vacuum retarded dipole and force-free fields. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method was used to explore the phase space of the magnetic inclination angle, viewing angle. maximum emission radius, and gap width. We also used the measured spectral cutoff energies to estimate the accelerating parallel electric field dependence on radius. under the assumptions that the high-energy emission is dominated by curvature radiation and the geometry (radius of emission and minimum radius of curvature of the magnetic field lines) is determined by the best fitting light curves for each model. We find that light curves from the vacuum field more closely match the observed light curves and multiwavelength constraints, and that the calculated parallel electric field can place additional constraints on the emission geometry

DeCesar, Megan E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
NASA NTRS1983

A case study of the energy dissipation of the gravity wave field based on satellite altimeter measurements

Wave breaking is proposed as the primary energy dissipation mechanism for the gravity wave field. The energy dissipation rate is calculated based on the statistical model proposed by Longuet-Higgins (1969) with a modification of the breaking criterion incorporating the surface stress according to Phillips and Banner (1974). From this modified model, an analytic expression is found for the wave attenuation rate and the half-life time of the wave field which depend only on the significant slope of the wave field and the ratio of friction velocity to initial wave phase velocity. These expressions explain why the freshly generated wave field does not last long, but why swells are capable of propagating long distances without substantial change in energy density. It is shown that breaking is many orders of magnitude more effective in dissipating wave energy than the molecular viscosity, if the significant slope is higher than 0.01. Limited observational data from satellite and laboratory are used to compare with the analytic results, and show good agreement.

Huang, N. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Computational simulation of the creep-rupture process in filamentary composite materials

A computational simulation of the internal damage accumulation which causes the creep-rupture phenomenon in filamentary composite materials is developed. The creep-rupture process involves complex interactions between several damage mechanisms. A statistically-based computational simulation using a time-differencing approach is employed to model these progressive interactions. The finite element method is used to calculate the internal stresses. The fibers are modeled as a series of bar elements which are connected transversely by matrix elements. Flaws are distributed randomly throughout the elements in the model. Load is applied, and the properties of the individual elements are updated at the end of each time step as a function of the stress history. The simulation is continued until failure occurs. Several cases, with different initial flaw dispersions, are run to establish a statistical distribution of the time-to-failure. The calculations are performed on a supercomputer. The simulation results compare favorably with the results of creep-rupture experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Slattery, Kerry T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Development and Application of Computational/In Vitro Toxicological Methods for Chemical Hazard Risk Reduction of New Materials for Advanced Weapon Systems

The development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) is essential for reducing the chemical hazards of new weapon systems. The current collaboration between HEST (toxicology research and testing), MLPJ (computational chemistry) and PRS (computational chemistry, new propellant synthesis) is focusing R&D efforts on basic research goals that will rapidly transition to useful products for propellant development. Computational methods are being investigated that will assist in forecasting cellular toxicological end-points. Models developed from these chemical structure-toxicity relationships are useful for the prediction of the toxicological endpoints of new related compounds. Research is focusing on the evaluation tools to be used for the discovery of such relationships and the development of models of the mechanisms of action. Combinations of computational chemistry techniques, in vitro toxicity methods, and statistical correlations, will be employed to develop and explore potential predictive relationships; results for series of molecular systems that demonstrate the viability of this approach are reported. A number of hydrazine salts have been synthesized for evaluation. Computational chemistry methods are being used to elucidate the mechanism of action of these salts. Toxicity endpoints such as viability (LDH) and changes in enzyme activity (glutahoione peroxidase and catalase) are being experimentally measured as indicators of cellular damage. Extrapolation from computational/in vitro studies to human toxicity, is the ultimate goal. The product of this program will be a predictive tool to assist in the development of new, less toxic propellants.

Frazier, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian prior construction for uncertainty quantification in first-principles statistical mechanics

First-principles statistical mechanics enables the prediction of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of materials, but is computationally expensive. Many approaches require surrogate models to calculate energies within Monte Carlo or molecular dynamics simulations. Inexpensive surrogates such as cluster expansions enable otherwise intractable calculations by interpolating data from higher accuracy methods, such as Density Functional Theory (DFT). Surrogate models introduce uncertainty into downstream calculations, in addition to any uncertainty inherent to DFT calculations. Bayesian frameworks address this by quantifying uncertainty and incorporating expert knowledge through priors. However, constructing effective priors remains challenging. This work introduces and describes practical strategies for building Bayesian cluster expansions, focusing on basis truncation, hyperparameter selection, and ground state replication. We analyze multiple basis truncation schemes, compare cross-validation to the evidence-approximation for hyperparameter optimization, and provide methods to find and enforce ground-state-preserving models through priors. Additionally, we compare the uncertainties between different approximations to DFT (LDA, PBE, SCAN) against the uncertainty introduced with the use of cluster expansion surrogate models. These approaches are demonstrated on the BCC Li x Mg 1-x and Li x Al 1-x alloys, which are both of interest for solid-state Li batteries. Our results provide guidelines for constructing and utilizing Bayesian cluster expansions, thereby improving the transparency of materials modeling. Furthermore, the approaches and insights developed in this work can be transferred to a wide range of cluster expansion surrogate models, including the atomic cluster expansion and related machine-learned interatomic potential architectures.

Alloy theory↗