SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1978

A study of digital holographic filters generation. Phase 2: Digital data communication system, volume 1

An empirical study of the performance of the Viterbi decoders in bursty channels was carried out and an improved algebraic decoder for nonsystematic codes was developed. The hybrid algorithm was simulated for the (2,1), k = 7 code on a computer using 20 channels having various error statistics, ranging from pure random error to pure bursty channels. The hybrid system outperformed both the algebraic and the Viterbi decoders in every case, except the 1% random error channel where the Viterbi decoder had one bit less decoding error.

Ingels, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Measuring galaxy cluster masses with CMB lensing using a Maximum Likelihood estimator: statistical and systematic error budgets for future experiments

We develop a Maximum Likelihood estimator (MLE) to measure the masses of galaxy clusters through the impact of gravitational lensing on the temperature and polarization anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We show that, at low noise levels in temperature, this optimal estimator outperforms the standard quadratic estimator by a factor of two. For polarization, we show that the Stokes Q/U maps can be used instead of the traditional E- and B-mode maps without losing information. We test and quantify the bias in the recovered lensing mass for a comprehensive list of potential systematic errors. Using realistic simulations, we examine the cluster mass uncertainties from CMB-cluster lensing as a function of an experiment’s beam size and noise level. We predict the cluster mass uncertainties will be 3 - 6% for SPT-3G, AdvACT, and Simons Array experiments with 10,000 clusters and less than 1% for the CMB-S4 experiment with a sample containing 100,000 clusters. The mass constraints from CMB polarization are very sensitive to the experimental beam size and map noise level: for a factor of three reduction in either the beam size or noise level, the lensing signal-to-noise improves by roughly a factor of two.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Statistical and computational uncertainties in atmospheric profiles from radio occultation - Mariner 10 at Venus

Statistical error in Mariner 10 occultation profiles is traced from initial observations to reduced temperature, pressure, and absorption profiles. It is shown that for the Mariner 10 profile with a height of resolution of 0.1 km, statistical measurement errors lead to uncertainties in temperature that are less than 2 K at all altitudes considered and are typically less than 0.5 K. Attention is also given to uncertainties in pressure and atmospheric absorption. In addition it is found that there is also a systematic error in the reduction of two-way data that arises from the parallax between the uplink and downlink ray paths. Finally, it is concluded that if the systematic error can be reduced to the level of the statistical noise in Mariner 10, then long term studies of thick atmospheres by occultation techniques will be feasible in the future at good levels of accuracy.

Lipa, B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of the tide gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiements were performed as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiements. Statistical objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes. The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in all three assimilation experiments. With few exceptions the error estimated generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary, we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that the time series of differences between the filter ouput and the actual observations were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimaes. We found that the best filter we could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial independence of the errors. Formation of such detailed noise models will require longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets.

Miller, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Complementary Note to 'A Lag-1 Smoother Approach to System-Error Estimation': The Intrinsic Limitations of Residual Diagnostics

Recently, this author studied an approach to the estimation of system error based on combining observation residuals derived from a sequential filter and fixed lag-1 smoother. While extending the methodology to a variational formulation, experimenting with simple models and making sure consistency was found between the sequential and variational formulations, the limitations of the residual-based approach came clearly to the surface. This note uses the sequential assimilation application to simple nonlinear dynamics to highlight the issue. Only when some of the underlying error statistics are assumed known is it possible to estimate the unknown component. In general, when considerable uncertainties exist in the underlying statistics as a whole, attempts to obtain separate estimates of the various error covariances are bound to lead to misrepresentation of errors. The conclusions are particularly relevant to present-day attempts to estimate observation-error correlations from observation residual statistics. A brief illustration of the issue is also provided by comparing estimates of error correlations derived from a quasi-operational assimilation system and a corresponding Observing System Simulation Experiments framework.

Fixed-lag smoothing↗

DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: BAO and RSD measurements from the anisotropic power spectrum of the quasar sample between redshift 0.8 and 2.2

ABSTRACT We measure the clustering of quasars of the final data release (DR16) of eBOSS. The sample contains $343\, 708$ quasars between redshifts 0.8 ≤ z ≤ 2.2 over $4699\, \mathrm{deg}^2$. We calculate the Legendre multipoles (0,2,4) of the anisotropic power spectrum and perform a BAO and a Full-Shape (FS) analysis at the effective redshift zeff = 1.480. The errors include systematic errors that amount to 1/3 of the statistical error. The systematic errors comprise a modelling part studied using a blind N-body mock challenge and observational effects studied with approximate mocks to account for various types of redshift smearing and fibre collisions. For the BAO analysis, we measure the transverse comoving distance DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.60 ± 0.90 and the Hubble distance DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.34 ± 0.60. This agrees with the configuration space analysis, and the consensus yields: DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.69 ± 0.80 and DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.26 ± 0.55. In the FS analysis, we fit the power spectrum using a model based on Regularised Perturbation Theory, which includes redshift space distortions and the Alcock–Paczynski effect. The results are DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.68 ± 0.90 and DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.52 ± 0.51 and we constrain the linear growth rate of structure f(zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.476 ± 0.047. Our results agree with the configuration space analysis. The consensus analysis of the eBOSS quasar sample yields: DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.21 ± 0.79, DH(zeff)/rdrag = 3.23 ± 0.47, and f(zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.462 ± 0.045 and is consistent with a flat ΛCDM cosmological model using Planck results.

Neveux, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2016

TH-AB-202-04: Auto-Adaptive Margin Generation for MLC-Tracked Radiotherapy

Purpose: To develop an auto-adaptive margin generator for MLC tracking. The generator is able to estimate errors arising in image guided radiotherapy, particularly on an MR-Linac, which depend on the latencies of machine and image processing, as well as on patient motion characteristics. From the estimated error distribution, a segment margin is generated, able to compensate errors up to a user-defined confidence. Method: In every tracking control cycle (TCC, 40ms), the desired aperture D(t) is compared to the actual aperture A(t), a delayed and imperfect representation of D(t). Thus an error e(t)=A(T)-D(T) is measured every TCC. Applying kernel-density-estimation (KDE), the cumulative distribution (CDF) of e(t) is estimated. With CDF-confidence limits, upper and lower error limits are extracted for motion axes along and perpendicular leaf-travel direction and applied as margins. To test the dosimetric impact, two representative motion traces were extracted from fast liver-MRI (10Hz). The traces were applied onto a 4D-motion platform and continuously tracked by an Elekta Agility 160 MLC using an artificially imposed tracking delay. Gafchromic film was used to detect dose exposition for static, tracked, and error-compensated tracking cases. The margin generator was parameterized to cover 90% of all tracking errors. Dosimetric impact was rated by calculating the ratio between underexposed points (>5% underdosage) to the total number of points inside FWHM of static exposure. Results: Without imposing adaptive margins, tracking experiments showed a ratio of underexposed points of 17.5% and 14.3% for two motion cases with imaging delays of 200ms and 300ms, respectively. Activating the margin generated yielded total suppression (<1%) of underdosed points. Conclusion: We showed that auto-adaptive error compensation using machine error statistics is possible for MLC tracking. The error compensation margins are calculated on-line, without the need of assuming motion or machine models. Further strategies to reduce consequential overdosages are currently under investigation. This work was funded by the SoRTS consortium, which includes the industry partners Elekta, Philips and Technolution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Poster - 49: Assessment of Synchrony respiratory compensation error for CyberKnife liver treatment

The goal of this work is to quantify respiratory motion compensation errors for liver tumor patients treated by the CyberKnife system with Synchrony tracking, to identify patients with the smallest tracking errors and to eventually help coach patient’s breathing patterns to minimize dose delivery errors. The accuracy of CyberKnife Synchrony respiratory motion compensation was assessed for 37 patients treated for liver lesions by analyzing data from system logfiles. A predictive model is used to modulate the direction of individual beams during dose delivery based on the positions of internally implanted fiducials determined using an orthogonal x-ray imaging system and the current location of LED external markers. For each x-ray pair acquired, system logfiles report the prediction error, the difference between the measured and predicted fiducial positions, and the delivery error, which is an estimate of the statistical error in the model overcoming the latency between x-ray acquisition and robotic repositioning. The total error was calculated at the time of each x-ray pair, for the number of treatment fractions and the number of patients, giving the average respiratory motion compensation error in three dimensions. The 99{sup th} percentile for the total radial error is 3.85 mm, with the highest contribution of 2.79 mm in superior/inferior (S/I) direction. The absolute mean compensation error is 1.78 mm radially with a 1.27 mm contribution in the S/I direction. Regions of high total error may provide insight into features predicting groups of patients with larger or smaller total errors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Geodetic positioning using a global positioning system of satellites

Geodetic positioning using range, integrated Doppler, and interferometric observations from a constellation of twenty-four Global Positioning System satellites is analyzed. A summary of the proposals for geodetic positioning and baseline determination is given which includes a description of measurement techniques and comments on rank deficiency and error sources. An analysis of variance comparison of range, Doppler, and interferometric time delay to determine their relative geometric strength for baseline determination is included. An analytic examination to the effect of a priori constraints on positioning using simultaneous observations from two stations is presented. Dynamic point positioning and baseline determination using range and Doppler is examined in detail. Models for the error sources influencing dynamic positioning are developed. Included is a discussion of atomic clock stability, and range and Doppler observation error statistics based on random correlated atomic clock error are derived.

Fell, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential, velocity, and density fields from sparse and noisy redshift-distance samples - Method

A method for recovering the three-dimensional potential, velocity, and density fields from large-scale redshift-distance samples is described. Galaxies are taken as tracers of the velocity field, not of the mass. The density field and the initial conditions are calculated using an iterative procedure that applies the no-vorticity assumption at an initial time and uses the Zel'dovich approximation to relate initial and final positions of particles on a grid. The method is tested using a cosmological N-body simulation 'observed' at the positions of real galaxies in a redshift-distance sample, taking into account their distance measurement errors. Malmquist bias and other systematic and statistical errors are extensively explored using both analytical techniques and Monte Carlo simulations.

Dekel, Avishai↗

DOE OSTI2014

Statistical and systematic errors in the measurement of weak-lensing Minkowski functionals: Application to the Canada-France-Hawaii Lensing Survey

The measurement of cosmic shear using weak gravitational lensing is a challenging task that involves a number of complicated procedures. We study in detail the systematic errors in the measurement of weak-lensing Minkowski Functionals (MFs). Specifically, we focus on systematics associated with galaxy shape measurements, photometric redshift errors, and shear calibration correction. We first generate mock weak-lensing catalogs that directly incorporate the actual observational characteristics of the Canada-France-Hawaii Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). We then perform a Fisher analysis using the large set of mock catalogs for various cosmological models. We find that the statistical error associated with the observational effects degrades the cosmological parameter constraints by a factor of a few. The Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey with a sky coverage of ∼1400 deg{sup 2} will constrain the dark energy equation of the state parameter with an error of Δw {sub 0} ∼ 0.25 by the lensing MFs alone, but biases induced by the systematics can be comparable to the 1σ error. We conclude that the lensing MFs are powerful statistics beyond the two-point statistics only if well-calibrated measurement of both the redshifts and the shapes of source galaxies is performed. Finally, we analyze the CFHTLenS data to explore the ability of the MFs to break degeneracies between a few cosmological parameters. Using a combined analysis of the MFs and the shear correlation function, we derive the matter density Ω{sub m0}=0.256±{sub 0.046}{sup 0.054}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

A statistical study of the surface accuracy of a planar truss beam

Surface error statistics for single-layer and double-layer planar truss beams with random member-length errors were calculated using a Monte-Carlo technique in conjunction with finite-element analysis. Surface error was calculated in terms of the normal distance from a regression line to the surface nodes of the distorted beam. Results for both single-layer and double-layer beams indicate that a minimum root-mean-square surface error can be achieved by optimizing the depth-to-length ratio of a truss beam. The statically indeterminate double-layer beams can provide greater surface accuracy, though at the expense of significantly greater complexity.

Kenner, W. Scott↗

NASA NTRS1980

Delta V errors due to attitude correction maneuvers of a spinning spacecraft

A statistical error analysis has been performed to evaluate the change in velocity of a spin stabilized spacecraft due to thruster induced attitude correction maneuvers. Analytical expressions were developed to determine the mean and variance of the velocity in terms of the nominal values and uncertainties of key spacecraft parameters. These parameters include thrust, thruster timing, thruster alignment, plume impingement force and estimated spacecraft mass. Typical values of these parameters and their uncertainties for NASA's Galileo spacecraft were used to evaluate these expressions. The results of the analysis allow the effect of attitude correction maneuvers to be evaluated with respect to the functional requirements on nongravitational acceleration. Other results include the identification of major sources of delta V error and studies of the sensitivity of delta V to variations in the error sources.

Zipursky, H. J.↗

DOE OSTI2016

SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLES AND THEIR HOST SPHEROIDS. I. DISASSEMBLING GALAXIES

Several recent studies have performed galaxy decompositions to investigate correlations between the black hole mass and various properties of the host spheroid, but they have not converged on the same conclusions. This is because their models for the same galaxy were often significantly different and not consistent with each other in terms of fitted components. Using 3.6 μm Spitzer imagery, which is a superb tracer of the stellar mass (superior to the K band), we have performed state-of-the-art multicomponent decompositions for 66 galaxies with directly measured black hole masses. Our sample is the largest to date and, unlike previous studies, contains a large number (17) of spiral galaxies with low black hole masses. We paid careful attention to the image mosaicking, sky subtraction, and masking of contaminating sources. After a scrupulous inspection of the galaxy photometry (through isophotal analysis and unsharp masking) and—for the first time—2D kinematics, we were able to account for spheroids; large-scale, intermediate-scale, and nuclear disks; bars; rings; spiral arms; halos; extended or unresolved nuclear sources; and partially depleted cores. For each individual galaxy, we compared our best-fit model with previous studies, explained the discrepancies, and identified the optimal decomposition. Moreover, we have independently performed one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) decompositions and concluded that, at least when modeling large, nearby galaxies, 1D techniques have more advantages than 2D techniques. Finally, we developed a prescription to estimate the uncertainties on the 1D best-fit parameters for the 66 spheroids that takes into account systematic errors, unlike popular 2D codes that only consider statistical errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Simulation study of communication link for Pioneer Saturn/Uranus atmospheric entry probe

A digital simulation is presented for a candidate modem in a modeled atmospheric scintillation environment with Doppler, Doppler rate, and signal attenuation typical of the radio link conditions for an outer planets atmospheric entry probe. The results indicate that the signal acquisition characteristics and the channel error rate are acceptable for the system requirements of the radio link. The simulation also outputs data for calculating other error statistics and a quantized symbol stream from which error correction decoding can be analyzed.

Hinrichs, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The C-12/C-13 isotope ratio toward Zeta Ophiuchi

Observations of interstellar CH(+) toward Zeta Oph were performed to determine the C-12/C-13 isotope ratio in this diffuse cloud. The very high signal-to-noise ratio spectra yield 6 sigma detections of the (C-13)H(+) features at 4232 A and 3957 A; a weighted mean C-12/C-13 ratio of 43 + or - 6 (1 sigma) is obtained. The uncertainty includes the contribution of continuum placement errors, statistical channel-to-channel signal fluctuations, and the error introduced in deconvolving the blended isotopic lines at 4232 A. This result indicates a decrease in the local galactic C-12/C-13 ratio by a factor of 2 during the 4.6 billion yr since the formation of the sun.

Hawkins, I.↗