Non-LWR Accident Progression and Source Term Plant Demonstration Calculations.
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Understand the function and performance of the different barriers to radionuclide release in HTGRs, how these are incorporated into reactor design and safety analyses, and approaches to estimate radionuclide release under specific reactor conditions.
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As long-term dry storage of used nuclear fuel at independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSI) trends toward the de facto back end of the US fuel cycle, it becomes appropriate to investigate potential degradation and dispersion scenarios for suitable risk mitigation purposes. Pitting and subsequent stress corrosion cracking of the canister wall is currently viewed as a potential scenario leading to a through-wall pathway for contamination to be transferred from within the storage container to the surrounding environment. While stress corrosion cracking measurements are currently underway to further characterize this scenario, a parallel effort endeavors to perform a consequence analysis of conditions in which through wall cracks are indeed formed. This effort consists of engineering scale modeling using the GOTHIC and MELCOR software packages along with experimental depletion and penetration tests.
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The TChem open-source software is a toolkit for computing thermodynamic properties, source term, and source term’s Jacobian matrix for chemical kinetic models that involve gas and surface reactions.
Neutron well counters provide a means to measure fissile mass by detecting coincident neutrons, which is a unique signature to fission. For coincidence counting, mass is determined using a calibration curve established with items that have the same material characteristics. Multiplicity analysis solves the point model equations for mass using known detector parameters. In both cases, mass measurements may exhibit a bias due to item characteristics and should be corrected for. Experiments can be done to estimate bias and material effects, but they require having both the well counter and the material well defined. In pursuit of estimating measurement bias and uncertainty in a High Efficiency Neutron Counter (HENC), an MCNP simulation was matched to measurements performed with an Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) to de ne a neutron source term. The neutron source term will be used to predict measurement performance of similar material types in a HENC.
On October 15, 2021, the Radioactive and Hazardous Waste Management Facility Manager declared a Potential Inadequacy in the Safety Analysis (PISA) due to a new information relating to an error discovered in calculation AB-WSF-20-002. Calculation AB-WSF-20-002 is used to determine source terms and heat release rates for vehicle and aircraft impacts with fuel fires involving TRU waste containers. The source term for an aircraft’s impact has different source terms factors (i.e., DR, ARF, RF, LPF) that are applied to multiple categories of drums impacted in the accident scenario based on the physical stresses of the aircraft impact and involvement in the subsequent fuel pool fire. The source terms of the multiple categories of affected drums are summed to determine the final source term for the accident scenario. Certain categories of affected drums are modeled to lose their lid, causing material to eject and burn unconfined on the ground. For these specific categories, a lower ARF value was incorrectly applied in AB-WSF-20-002 (i.e., an ARF value of 1E-3 was used instead of the DOE-STD-5506-2007 directed ARF value of 1E-2). For these categories, the ARF is applied to a relatively small number of low-activity drums (i.e., 17 drums at 2.9 PE-Ci each) compared to the total number of drums affected (i.e., 166 drums totaling 621.8 PE-Ci). Therefore, this error is not expected to significantly increase final dose for the accident scenario. No immediate actions or compensatory measures are required to maintain the facility in a safe condition.
Various advanced reactor developers are exploring the potential for reductions in the size of physical security forces and emergency planning zones. These reductions are based on robust fuel forms and inherently safe reactor designs. However, such reductions in physical protection measures could increase the risk of sabotage. To assess the possibility of reducing these measures, sabotage-induced radiological consequence analyses were carried out. These analyses considered accident scenarios that were beyond design basis accidents and overly conservative (Shah, 2025a; Shah, 2025b; Shah and Hartanto, 2026), yielding very large release fractions. These fractions, which can be used to evaluate physical protection and emergency planning requirements, have been crudely determined and applied as demonstrations for a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025a), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025b), a heat pipe–cooled reactor (HPR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025c), and a molten salt–cooled reactor (MSR) (Shah et al., 2026). A Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) team used MELCOR—a fully integrated severe accident analysis code—to demonstrate the code’s capability to analyze advanced (i.e., not light water–cooled) reactors (including a fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor [FHR]) and calculate radiological releases to the environment during severe accidents (Wagner et al., 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2023a, and 2023b). Although the analyses were carried out to demonstrate MELCOR’s growing capability, the release source terms were estimated for advanced reactors, providing valuable insights into the accident progression and radiological releases. These findings from prior SNL studies, including estimated source terms and related sensitivity studies, were leveraged to derive source terms for postulated sabotage-induced accidents. Insights from these sensitivity studies informed the scaling of SNL’s estimated source terms for the defined accident scenarios. The derived release fractions for the severe accident scenarios for the respective reactor designs can be used to perform more nuanced dose consequence analyses to evaluate the reactors’ physical protection and emergency planning zone requirements. These analyses are in accordance with the risk-informed, performance-based approach proposed under 10 CFR Part 53. This study builds on the prior source term analyses and associated sensitivity studies by SNL to derive time-dependent and design-informed release fractions. Section 2 describes the diverse advanced reactor designs analyzed by the SNL team. Section 3 discusses the severe accident analyses, the release fractions calculated, and the limitations and assumptions of the demonstration project. Section 4 presents the release percentages derived for the hypothetical sabotage-induced severe accidents at the advanced reactors. Section 5 summarizes the study’s findings and conclusions.
In upscaling methods, closures for nonlinear problems present a well-known challenge. While a number of theoretical methods have been proposed for handling such closures, nonlinearities still remain a significant obstacle for many problems. In this work, we use a combination of formal upscaling and data-driven machine learning for explicitly closing a nonlinear transport and reaction process in multiscale tissues. The classical effectiveness factor model is used to formulate the macroscale reaction kinetics. We train a multilayer perceptron network using training data generated by direct numerical simulations over microscale examples. Once trained, the network is used in an algorithm for numerically solving the upscaled (coarse-grained) differential equation describing mass transport and reaction in two example tissues. The network is described as being explicit in the sense that the network is trained using macroscale concentrations and gradients of concentration as components of the feature space rather than incorporating them as part of a constraint in the optimization process. Network training and solutions to the macroscale transport equations were computed for two different tissues. The two tissue types (brain and liver) exhibit markedly different geometrical complexity and spatial scale (cell size and sample size). The upscaled solutions for the average concentration are compared with numerical solutions derived from the microscale concentration fields by a posteriori averaging. There are three outcomes of this work of particular note. 1) Our overall approach results in an upscaled nonlinear PDE. The PDE is closed using a neural network, and our approach results in the definition of the classical effectiveness factor for effecting closure. 2) We identify particular source terms for the closure problem that are important for representing the structure of the closure. These source terms involve macroscale concentrations and their gradients. We adopt these source terms to use as explicit features in the learning algorithm. We find the trained networks that include the macroscale source terms generate models that are able to predict the correction factor with increased fidelity over those that do not. 3) We find that the trained network exhibits good generalizability, and it is able to predict the effectiveness factor with high fidelity for realistically-structured tissues despite the significantly different scale and geometrical complexity of the two example tissue types. This latter result emphasizes our purposeful connection between conventional averaging methods with the use of machine learning for closure; this contrasts with some machine learning methods for upscaling where the exact form of the macroscale equation remains unknown.
The release of radionuclides initially encapsulated in a slowly degrading solid waste form and contained in an eventually corroding canister defines the source term for numerical simulations for the assessment of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. While the details of waste degradation, canister corrosion, and dissolution and mobilization of the radionuclides in pore water include complex chemical reaction and transport processes that are coupled to the thermal, hydrological, microbiological, and mechanical conditions in the repository, the source-term model suitable for use in a numerical performance assessment model should be a defensible abstraction of these mechanisms. We developed a radiological source-term model and implemented it into a non-isothermal flow and transport simulator. While the proposed source-term model is applicable to various waste forms, canister systems, and disposal concepts, we specifically considered radionuclide releases from vitrified high-level waste placed in a cylindrical canister disposed in a deep vertical borehole repository. In this model, waste degradation is a function of temperature, and it can be adjusted to evaluate the influence of and propagate uncertainties in pH, passivation reactions, and chemical conditions as well as geometrical factors. The time-dependent, congruent release of safety-relevant radionuclides present in the decaying inventory is then calculated. Finally, the radionuclides are mobilized by diffusive and advective transport according to the thermo-hydraulic conditions prevailing in the near field of the repository, from where they migrate through the geosphere to the accessible environment. We examine the influence of the source-term model’s parameters on performance assessment calculations through sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analyses, identifying influential factors and confirming the upper bound of their impact. These considerations align with the overarching goal of repository design, which is to demonstrate that engineered and natural barriers can collectively delay radionuclide migration for timescales far exceeding human planning, thereby providing multiple, redundant barriers against environmental contamination.
The purpose of this Engineering Calculations Analysis Report (ECAR) is to document the as-run heat generation rates (W/g), flux/fluence, radio-isotopic source term in Curies and grams, decay heat rate in Watts, and specimen DPA for the post-irradiation shipment and examination of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)-3-1 and EPRI-3-2 experiments. EPRI-3-1 was irradiated during cycle 155B ending April 12, 2014. EPRI-3-2, a modification of EPRI-3-1, was irradiated during cycle 158B ending April 1, 2016. Source term, decay heat rate, and DPA calculations were based on scaled Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculated fluxes for the EPRI-3-2 experiment. Although EPRI-3-2 is a modification of EPRI-3-1, no significant changes were made in the placement of experiment specimens. Calculated fluxes were scaled using as-run center lobe source powers of the corresponding irradiation cycles for EPRI-3-1 and EPRI-3-2. ORIGEN2 Version 2.2 was used to determine the decay heat rate and source term for the EPRI-3 experiment. The source term analysis was performed as requested by the project staff. The results of this analysis may be used to demonstrate compliance with shipping requirements in the BEA Research Reactor (BRR) cask following irradiation as well as to provide as-run source term to support Post-Irradiation Examination (PIE).