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At least 109 records · Page 6

VAINE: Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments

Natural experiments are observational studies where the assignment of treatment conditions to different populations occur by chance ``in the wild''. Researchers from fields such as economics, healthcare, and the social sciences leverage natural experiments to conduct hypothesis testing and causal effect estimation for treatment and outcome variables that would otherwise be costly, infeasible, or unethical. In this paper, we introduce VAINE (Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments), a visual analytics tool for identifying and understanding natural experiments from observational data. We then demonstrate how VAINE can be used to validate causal relationships, estimate average treatment effects, and identify statistical phenomena such as Simpson’s paradox through two use cases.

Guo, Grace↗

Commitment to Active Allyship Is Required to Address the Lack of Hispanic and Latinx Representation in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

In 2021, people of Hispanic and Latinx origin made up 6% of the atmospheric and Earth sciences workforce of the United States, yet they represent 20% of the population. Motivated by this disparity in Hispanic and Latinx representation in the atmospheric and Earth science workforce, this manuscript documents the lack of representation through existing limited demographic data. The analysis presents a clear gap in participation by Hispanic and Latinx people in academic settings, with a widening gap through each education and career stage. Several factors and challenges impacting the representation disparity include the lack of funding for and collaboration with Hispanic-serving institutions, limited opportunities due to immigration status, and limited support for international research collaborations. We highlight the need for actionable steps to address the lack of representation and provide targeted recommendations to federal funding agencies, educational institutions, faculty, and potential employers. While we wait for systemic cultural change from our scientific institutions, grassroots initiatives like those proudly led by the AMS Committee for Hispanic and Latinx Advancement will emerge to address the needs of the Hispanic and Latinx scientific and broader community. We briefly highlight some of those achievements. Lasting cultural change can only happen if our leaders are active allies in the creation of a more diverse, equitable, and inclusive future. Alongside our active allies we will continue to champion for change in our weather, water, and climate enterprise.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Final Report for CSP Tower Public Opinion and Education Project

As part of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (DE-EE0009809) the project wanted to understand the public’s opinion of the technology and and explore the types of community engagement that is needed to support such development. The initial objectives for the public perception activities were twofold. The primary objective was to gather public opinion and feedback from the communities living near the two operating solar power tower plants, Ivanpah and Crescent Dunes, and to distill lessons learned from the community engagement conducted before, during, and after the plants were developed to inform future development. This included outreach to nearby airports. The other objective was to gauge public opinion about large-scale solar, specifically CSP towers, to start educating the public on the benefits and to begin building relationships with communities of interest, initially targeting the Kingman, Arizona area. The objectives shifted after the first exploratory trip to Ivanpah and Kingman, however, as it became apparent that it would be challenging to gather public opinion from the community surrounding Ivanpah that could be useful for other community profiles, and the company wasn’t ready to address the concerns in Kingman. Another area was chosen, therefore, to represent those where future development is possible. The recently published Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Perceptions of Large-Scale Solar Project Neighbors Study exemplified public perception polling based on social science and served as the foundation for the survey questions taken to the field. The intent was to ensure that people knew their input was valued and that the time they spent was valuable for the participant as well. It has been noted in the literature that in-person interaction has greater benefits than activities online or via mail, as well as limits the expense.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Water narratives in local newspapers within the United States

Sustainable use of water resources continues to be a challenge across the globe. This is in part due to the complex set of physical and social behaviors that interact to influence water management from local to global scales. Analyses of water resources have been conducted using a variety of techniques, including qualitative evaluations of media narratives. This study aims to augment these methods by leveraging computational and quantitative techniques from the social sciences focused on text analyses. Specifically, we use natural language processing methods to investigate a large corpus (approx. 1.8M) of newspaper articles spanning approximately 35 years (1982–2017) for insights into human-nature interactions with water. Focusing on local and regional United States publications, our analysis demonstrates important dynamics in water-related dialogue about drinking water and pollution to other critical infrastructures, such as energy, across different parts of the country. Our assessment, which looks at water as a system, also highlights key actors and sentiments surrounding water. Extending these analytical methods could help us further improve our understanding of the complex roles of water in current society that should be considered in emerging activities to mitigate and respond to resource conflicts and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technology assessment: What should it be?

A report on technology assessment (TA) is presented. Topics discussed include: the nature of TA, TA used as an analytical method for natural and social sciences, and the uncertain consequences of TA.

Black, G.↗

The total assessment profile, volume 1

A methodology is described for the evaluation of societal impacts associated with the implementation of a new technology. Theoretical foundations for the methodology, called the total assessment profile, are established from both the economic and social science perspectives. The procedure provides for accountability of nonquantifiable factors and measures through the use of a comparative value matrix by assessing the impacts of the technology on the value system of the society.

Leininger, G.↗

Space technology putting it in the educational perspective

One of the precepts of the company was to provide educators with practical, innovative, and manageable audio-visual teaching aids in a wide spectrum of educational fields, but primarily geography, geology and social science. A pilot slide set was prepared, demonstrating primary areas along the entire length of the San Andreas Fault Zone in California and Mexico. This set utilized several NASA infrared research aircraft photos, to more clearly delineate fault traces. A decision was made to mount a massive program of repackaging NASA generated infrared aircraft imagery into topical teaching sets.

Hankins, D. B.↗

Summary of community technology needs

Applications of the social sciences and engineering to solution of the problem of airport noise are summarized. Specific needs are outlined.

Bragdon, C. R.↗

Space manufacturing 1983; Proceedings of the Sixth Conference, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, May 9-12, 1983

General topics are biomedical and social sciences, space stations and habitats, space manufacturing, international and legal considerations, materials resources and processing, accelerators and asteroids, and space economics. Among the papers presented, consideration is given to the evolution of man as an explorer; whether people, robots, or hybrids should operate a space station; electrophoresis experiments in space; the emerging government regulation of American space entrepeneurs; the extraction and purification of iron-group and precious metals from asteroidal feedstocks; the construction, testing, and design comparison to computer simulation fo the Mass-Driver III; and the international competition in commercial aerospace markets.

Burke, J. D.↗

Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography with indexes, supplement 185

This bibliography lists 462 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in February 1985. Aerodynamics, aeronautical engineering, aircraft design, aircraft stability and control, geophysics, social sciences, and space sciences are some of the areas covered.

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Guidelines for noise and vibration levels for the space station

Human habitability noise and vibration guidelines for the Space Station are presented. These were developed by a working group of experts established by the Committee on Hearing, Bioacoustics, and Biomechanics (CHABA) of the National Research Council's Commission on Behavioral and Social Science and Education. Noise exposure limits are suggested that will permit adequate speech communication, sleep, and hearing safety. Vibration exposure limits are suggested which will provide adequate comfort and permit adequate task performance. These are provided for guidance only for setting criteria. The exact criteria will depend on Space Station design and duty cycles.

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Research in geosciences policy

The general task was to look beyond the adverse physical impacts and to defining the policy problem. In order for policy actions to be effective, they must address the right policy problems, which will be different from and broader than the physical problems. We will work on defining the policy problems with a view to indicating how practical solutions might be implemented. In particular, public officials need advice on what should be said, and done, and for what purposes. That advice needs to be based on systematic analysis of: (1) the scholarly literature in the social sciences, and related disciplines; (2) the charging content of the policy debate at the center of attention; and (3) how citizens perceive and understand issues related to global change. We will conduct this analysis. Chapter 1 and 2 each reports work on defining the policy problem and analyzing the scholarly literature. Chapters 3 and 4, respectively, address the policy debate and citizen viewpoints in issues related to global change.

Brunner, Ronald D.↗

Implementing the Provisions of the National Environmental Policy Act

This handbook provides guidance and assistance to NASA officials in carrying out their responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act and the applicable NASA procedures (14 CFR 1216.3, Attachment A to NMI 8800.7). The handbook, as was contemplated by the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality, stresses the need for environmental analysis from the time of early planning through environmental assessment and environmental impact statement preparation to implementation of the subject action, and provides for necessary follow up. It stresses the need for NASA officials to draw upon all the appropriate disciplines from the natural and social sciences plus the environmental design arts in planning and decision making on actions which may have an impact on the human environment. The handbook is applicable to NASA Headquarters and field installations.

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