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NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Structural Evaluation of Uncertainties in Radiator Sandwich Panel Design

The Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) Space System is part of the NASA's Prometheus Program. As part of the JIMO engineering team at NASA Glenn Research Center, the structural design of the JIMO Heat Rejection Subsystem (HRS) is evaluated. An initial goal of this study was to perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of the input variables on the structural responses of the radiator panel. The desire was to let the sensitivity analysis information identify the important parameters. The probabilistic analysis methods illustrated here support this objective. The probabilistic structural performance evaluation of a HRS radiator sandwich panel was performed. The radiator panel structural performance was assessed in the presence of uncertainties in the loading, fabrication process variables, and material properties. The stress and displacement contours of the deterministic structural analysis at mean probability was performed and results presented. It is followed by a probabilistic evaluation to determine the effect of the primitive variables on the radiator panel structural performance. Based on uncertainties in material properties, structural geometry and loading, the results of the displacement and stress analysis are used as an input file for the probabilistic analysis of the panel. The sensitivity of the structural responses, such as maximum displacement and maximum tensile and compressive stresses of the facesheet in x and y directions and maximum VonMises stresses of the tube, to the loading and design variables is determined under the boundary condition where all edges of the radiator panel are pinned. Based on this study, design critical material and geometric parameters of the considered sandwich panel are identified.

Kuguoglu, Latife↗

NASA NTRS1998

Assessment of Uncertainty in the Determination of Activation Energy for Polymeric Materials

An assessment of the experimental uncertainty in obtaining the kinetic activation energy from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data is presented. A neat phenolic resin, Borden SC1O08, was heated at three heating rates to obtain weight loss vs temperature data. Activation energy was calculated by two methods: the traditional Flynn and Wall method based on the slope of log(q) versus 1/T, and a modification of this method where the ordinate and abscissa are reversed in the linear regression. The modified method produced a more accurate curve fit of the data, was more sensitive to data nonlinearity, and gave a value of activation energy 75 percent greater than the original method. An uncertainty analysis using the modified method yielded a 60 percent uncertainty in the average activation energy. Based on this result, the activation energy for a carbon-phenolic material was doubled and used to calculate the ablation rate In a typical solid rocket environment. Doubling the activation energy increased surface recession by 3 percent. Current TGA data reduction techniques that use the traditional Flynn and Wall approach to calculate activation energy should be changed to the modified method.

Darby, Stephania P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Probabilistic progressive buckling of trusses

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to describe progressive buckling and truss collapse in view of the numerous uncertainties associated with the structural, material, and load variables that describe the truss. Initially, the truss is deterministically analyzed for member forces, and members in which the axial force exceeds the Euler buckling load are identified. These members are then discretized with several intermediate nodes, and a probabilistic buckling analysis is performed on the truss to obtain its probabilistic buckling loads and the respective mode shapes. Furthermore, sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the primitive variables are investigated, margin of safety values for the truss are determined, and truss end node displacements are noted. These steps are repeated by sequentially removing buckled members until onset of truss collapse is reached. Results show that this procedure yields an optimum truss configuration for a given loading and for a specified reliability.

PROBABILISTIC BUCKLING ANALYSI↗

NASA NTRS2002

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Johnston, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Sensitivity of satellite-derived net shortwave irradiance at the Earth's surface to radiometric calibration

The effect of radiometric calibration uncertainties on satellite-derived net shortwave irradiance at the Earth's surface was examined. Net shortwave irradiance sensitivity to calibration is expressed as a function of two basic components that depend on surface and cloud albedo sensitivities, respectively. The analysis of these sensitivities for a wide range of atmospheric and surface conditions, as well as radiation geometries, shows that a 10 percent uncertainty in the calibration induces up to 40 W/sqm errors in instantaneous net shortwave irradiance (negative when the calibration uncertainty is positive). The maximum relative errors are obtained in overcast conditions when cloud albedos are high. On a monthly time scale, the induced error becomes typically 13 W/sqm in the tropics and 16 W/sqm in higher latitude regions during summer. The error almost vanishes at high latitudes during winter. A 10 percent positive uncertainty in the calibration gives a net shortwave irradiance error similar to that induced by the 3 hr sampling of the ISCCP Project.

Gautier, C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reconciling Scientific Aspirations and Engineering Constraints for a Lunar Mission via Hyperdimensional Interpolation

Virtually every NASA space-exploration mission represents a compromise between the interests of two expert, dedicated, but very different communities: scientists, who want to go quickly to the places that interest them most and spend as much time there as possible conducting sophisticated experiments, and the engineers and designers charged with maximizing the probability that a given mission will be successful and cost-effective. Recent work at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) seeks to enhance communication between these two groups, and to help them reconcile their interests, by developing advanced modeling capabilities with which they can analyze the achievement of science goals and objectives against engineering design and operational constraints. The analyses conducted prior to this study have been point-design driven. Each analysis has been of one hypothetical case which addresses the question: Given a set of constraints, how much science can be done? But the constraints imposed by the architecture team-e.g., rover speed, time allowed for extravehicular activity (EVA), number of sites at which science experiments are to be conducted- are all in early development and carry a great deal of uncertainty. Variations can be incorporated into the analysis, and indeed that has been done in sensitivity studies designed to see which constraint variations have the greatest impact on results. But if a very large number of variations can be analyzed all at once, producing a table that includes virtually the entire trade space under consideration, then we have a tool that enables scientists and mission architects to ask the inverse question: For a given desired level of science (or any other objective), what is the range of constraints that would be needed? With this tool, mission architects could determine, for example, what combinations of rover speed, EVA duration, and other constraints produce the desired results. Further, this tool would help them identify which technology-improvement investments would be likely to produce the largest or most important return. However, the number of variations that need to be considered for such analysis quickly balloons to an unwieldy size. If three variations are considered for each of six constraints-a very modest example-there are a total of 243 variations to consider. If it takes 40 minutes to compute each variation, as it does with HURON, our automated optimization system, then it would take 162 hours or nearly 7 days of round-the-clock computing to calculate the results. Adding further constraints or variations exponentially increases the amount of time that is needed.

Weisbin, Charles R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inverse Estimation of Mars 2020 Entry Aeroheating Environments Using MEDLI2 Flight Data

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected heating and pressure data during entry into Mars' atmosphere of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover. MEDLI2 included thermocouples, heat flux sensors, and pressure transducers on both the heatshield and the backshell. This paper covers the inverse estimation of heatshield and backshell surface heating based on the MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs), a network of thermocouples embedded in thermal protection system plugs across the aeroshell. Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the surface heat rate and temperature to uncertainties in thermocouple depth and material properties such as density, specific heat capacity, and thermal conductivity. Data from each MISP was also used to estimate the local time of transition from laminar to turbulent flow at each plug location.

Hannah S Alpert↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduced-order Modeling for Spacecraft Thermal-structural Applications

Leveraging the speed of reduced-order models (ROMs), thermal analysis teams have previously had access to rapid optimization, sensitivity studies, rapid model correlation, and uncertainty quantification, to name a few. An advantage of the developed approach is its relative robustness, which enabled expansion to include structural models in addition to thermal models leading to both rapid thermal-structural and rapid structural-only analyses. This method was tested for a sample thermal-structural application and showed good performance. It was then applied to a complex NASA mission and showed how ROMs could be used to quickly evaluate system uncertainties. Finally, these methods were applied to a structural-only application and used to better optimize and understand the structural design.

Derek Hengeveld↗

NASA NTRS2015

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

error analysis↗

NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis Developed for Turbomachinery Components

Aeroelastic analyses for advanced turbomachines are being developed for use at the NASA Glenn Research Center and industry. However, these analyses at present are used for turbomachinery design with uncertainties accounted for by using safety factors. This approach may lead to overly conservative designs, thereby reducing the potential of designing higher efficiency engines. An integration of the deterministic aeroelastic analysis methods with probabilistic analysis methods offers the potential to design efficient engines with fewer aeroelastic problems and to make a quantum leap toward designing safe reliable engines. In this research, probabilistic analysis is integrated with aeroelastic analysis: (1) to determine the parameters that most affect the aeroelastic characteristics (forced response and stability) of a turbomachine component such as a fan, compressor, or turbine and (2) to give the acceptable standard deviation on the design parameters for an aeroelastically stable system. The approach taken is to combine the aeroelastic analysis of the MISER (MIStuned Engine Response) code with the FPI (fast probability integration) code. The role of MISER is to provide the functional relationships that tie the structural and aerodynamic parameters (the primitive variables) to the forced response amplitudes and stability eigenvalues (the response properties). The role of FPI is to perform probabilistic analyses by utilizing the response properties generated by MISER. The results are a probability density function for the response properties. The probabilistic sensitivities of the response variables to uncertainty in primitive variables are obtained as a byproduct of the FPI technique. The combined analysis of aeroelastic and probabilistic analysis is applied to a 12-bladed cascade vibrating in bending and torsion. Out of the total 11 design parameters, 6 are considered as having probabilistic variation. The six parameters are space-to-chord ratio (SBYC), stagger angle (GAMA), elastic axis (ELAXS), Mach number (MACH), mass ratio (MASSR), and frequency ratio (WHWB). The cascade is considered to be in subsonic flow with Mach 0.7. The results of the probabilistic aeroelastic analysis are the probability density function of predicted aerodynamic damping and frequency for flutter and the response amplitudes for forced response.

Reddy, T. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion

Viewgraphs of probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion are presented. The objective of the study was to develop a methodology to certify Space Nuclear Propulsion System (SNPS) Nozzle with assured reliability. Topics covered include: advantage of probabilistic structural analysis; space nuclear propulsion system nozzle uncertainties in the random variables; SNPS nozzle natural frequency; and sensitivity of primitive variable uncertainties SNPS nozzle natural frequency and shell stress.

Shah, Ashwin↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was implemented to offer an efficient framework for determining material characteristics from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enable parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM). SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography or other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was created to offer an efficient framework for determining material properties from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enables parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM) into our image segmentation workflow. SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography and other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗

NASA NTRS2025

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

The musculoskeletal (MS) system of astronauts is subject to physiological changes, potentially leading to injuries due to the exposure to different gravitational environments experienced during spaceflight. These injuries can occur while an astronaut is performing an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in space, on lunar or planetary surfaces or while wearing a spacesuit during terrestrial training for an EVA. The OpenSim MS modeling software can assess EVA induced MS injury mechanisms such as muscle strains, ligament injuries and joint injuries. One area of concern, since there are only a few different spacesuit sizes with limited adjustability, is the possibility of a poorly fitting spacesuit. This can cause unnatural joint motions and torques resulting in various MS injuries. A credibility assessment of the OpenSim modeling and simulation procedures is performed per NASA-STD-7009A to provide information on the credibility of the model’s use in simulating EVA related injury mechanisms. The credibility assessment evaluated various OpenSim models against the following eight credibility factors: data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty and results robustness (sensitivity). The models evaluated for EVA injuries will require additional credibility factor analysis and upgrades to the model features, such as adding ligaments to a whole-body model, to reliably predict and analyze the EVA injuries expected to occur due to a poor spacesuit fit. The degree of elevation strategy required to increase the credibility assessment scores will depend on the model complexity and the injury mechanism.

Christopher A. Gallo↗

NASA NTRS2024

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessments of Musculoskeletal Computational Models for Simulating Astronaut Injuries Due to a Poor Spacesuit Fit

Christopher A Gallo↗

NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Analysis Techniques Applied to Complex Spacecraft Power System Modeling

Electric power system performance predictions are critical to spacecraft, such as the International Space Station (ISS), to ensure that sufficient power is available to support all the spacecraft s power needs. In the case of the ISS power system, analyses to date have been deterministic, meaning that each analysis produces a single-valued result for power capability because of the complexity and large size of the model. As a result, the deterministic ISS analyses did not account for the sensitivity of the power capability to uncertainties in model input variables. Over the last 10 years, the NASA Glenn Research Center has developed advanced, computationally fast, probabilistic analysis techniques and successfully applied them to large (thousands of nodes) complex structural analysis models. These same techniques were recently applied to large, complex ISS power system models. This new application enables probabilistic power analyses that account for input uncertainties and produce results that include variations caused by these uncertainties. Specifically, N&R Engineering, under contract to NASA, integrated these advanced probabilistic techniques with Glenn s internationally recognized ISS power system model, System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE).

Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.↗