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Results for “Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility GoldSim System Model

This report documents the development of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) trench system model. The GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software is utilized to model the release and transport of radiological inventory disposed (both currently and in the future) within Engineered and Slit Trenches. This model is in support of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the ELLWF Performance Assessment. The ELLWF system model utilizes a hybrid-approach to accurately describe the disposal system. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance model provides the infiltration data to both PORFLOW and GoldSim. PORFLOW is used to calibrate the GoldSim model to ensure confidence in the stochastic results. Finally, the concentrations from GoldSim transport simulations are fed into the SRNL Dose Toolkit to calculate dose impacts and assess plume interaction

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of NEAMS Multiphysics Framework for Species Tracking in Molten Salt Reactors

This report from Idaho National Laboratory (INL) summarizes the key modeling and simulation activities conducted under the Department of Energy (DOE) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Campaign during the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). The focus of the work was to leverage state-of-the-art modeling capabilities from the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) codes to enable novel multiphysics and multiscale modeling and simulation of MSRs. Through collaboration with NEAMS code developers, advanced multiphysics analysis capabilities for MSR systems were demonstrated by coupling depletion, thermal-hydraulics, and thermochemistry into an innovative framework for chemical species transport in MSRs. As a result, the framework can track nuclides throughout their lifetimes in the core, from production (depletion) to advection throughout the salt volume (thermal-hydraulics) and off-gassing or precipitation outside of the salt (thermochemistry). This work supports the near-term deployment of MSRs by integrating the synergistic efforts between the DOE’s MSR Campaign and NEAMS program. The resulting framework will help better connect system design modelers with experimentalists to better understand and predict complex physical behaviors in MSRs. Researchers and MSR developers alike can now leverage these new modeling and simulation capabilities to perform novel analyses with applications including: • MSR dynamics during normal operational transients and accident scenarios • Off-gas system design and performance for fuel cycle and depletion analysis • Corrosion and active chemistry control for reactor component health and lifetime determination • Source term, decay heat and activity determination in accident scenarios • Special nuclear material accountancy and chemical forensic analysis for safeguards • Digital twin development of experiments and experimental reactor demonstrations • Measurement requirements for instrumentation and control design • Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of missing data to inform future experimental data collection.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Coefficients Calculated for the Prompt Neutron Decay Constant At or Near Delayed Critical

The derivation of a non-invasive prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficient is provided in this work. The computation of the sensitivity coefficient derived in this work does not require modification of Monte Carlo source code and is based on capabilities available in Monte Carlo N-Particle R© Code Version 6.2. The prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients are calculated for 44-group and 252-group energy structures for specific nuclide-reaction pairs in the Jezebel benchmark experiment. The nuclide-reaction pairs investigated in this work include Pu- 239(n,f), Pu-240(n,f), and Pu-241(n,f). Physical explanations of the sensitivity profiles exhibited by the 252-group energy structure are investigated for the prompt neutron multiplication factor, mean neutron lifetime, and prompt neutron decay constant. The prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients calculated for the 44-group and 252-group energy structure of Pu-239(n,f) are compared. Lastly, the 44-group energy structure sensitivity coefficients calculated are used for nuclear-data induced uncertainty quantification of the neutron multiplication factor. This work shows that a reduction in the nuclear data-induced uncertainty of the neutron multiplication factor is possible for all nuclide-reaction pairs investigated when prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients are utilized. This is important for new critical experiment design optimization studies of measurement configurations. This work provides a basis for more detailed sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of nuclide, reaction, and energy-specific cross section data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validating Mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu for the Sum-of-Fractions Method

The Sum-of-Fractions method is a technique used to assure that homogeneous mixtures of fissile and fissionable isotopes are below a minimum margin of k eff or reactivity. Current work by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory examines different mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu to determine critical mass limits for mixtures of transuranic actinides lacking a validation basis. To provide a validation basis for these limits, the work presented here describes the results of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of various mixtures of these isotopes in various concentrations moderated and reflected by light water and polyethylene. The TSUNAMI-1D sequence in the SCALE code system was used to generate sensitivity coefficients for three different concentrations of mixtures of 233 U, 235 U, and 239 Pu. The TSUNAMI-IP sequence was then used for similarity assessment (c k ) with critical benchmark experiment sensitivity data files (SDFs) from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data and the Nuclear Energy Agency SDF database. The VADER sequence in SCALE was used for statistical testing and to generate upper subcritical limits from the data to develop a basis for validating critical mass limits.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial development of a generic fluoride salt-cooled reactor model

Fluoride high-temperature reactors (FHRs) are high-temperature, low-pressure reactor concepts that use tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel and molten fluoride salt coolant. These reactors have the potential to provide both electrical power and high-temperature process heat. We used generic FHR parameters for a pebble-bed FHR to develop an initial model with fresh fuel for a generic FHR (gFHR) in MELCOR and SCALE (NEWT and KENO). In this paper, we present the development of our gFHR models, which will serve as the baseline for a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify the range of possible source terms for FHRs in severe accidents. We present MELCOR results for fuel and coolant temperatures through the core, a nodalization study for the steady-state thermal hydraulic model, and development of reactor physics models in SCALE. As this work progresses, these models will be used to calculate source terms for a loss-of-forced-flow accident and to conduct a sensitivity study on this accident to establish a range of possible source terms. SCALE will provide reactor physics parameters like isotopic inventory, decay heat generation, and temperature coefficients of reactivity. Using the uncertainty quantification tools within SCALE, we will generate distributions for those parameters and will use the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN or DAKOTA to sample those distributions in MELCOR to quantify the impact of reactor physics and thermal hydraulic uncertainties on FHR source terms. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reactivity Coefficient Measurements and Sensitivity Studies [Abstract]

Nuclear data validation is often performed today using criticality measurements. The gold standard for criticality measurements is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP). The validation specifically focuses on the effective multiplication factor (k eff ). K eff is a relatively easy parameter to infer and has reduced uncertainty due to being at or above critical. However, while k eff is a well-documented parameter with detailed sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, it cannot be used as a standalone metric to determine inaccuracies in nuclear data (e.g., cross section data, PFNS, nu), which is based on theory, physics, and differential measurements. The Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data (EUCLID) project aims to identify compensating errors in specific nuclear data by optimally designing experiments that are sensitive to a suite of measurement parameters beyond k eff . By identifying how each parameter's nuclear data sensitivity differs from others, experiments can be designed to constrain questionable nuclear data. One sensitivity that is of particular interest to this project includes reactivity coefficient sensitivities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and history match analysis of a carbon dioxide “huff-and-puff” injection test in a horizontal shale gas well in Tennessee

Due to improvements in well development, shale gas production has gained importance recently, especially in the United States. To improve gas production and develop a better understanding of shale reservoirs, researchers are conducting field tests to monitor CO 2 storage and enhanced gas recovery. Reservoir simulations can then utilize these field results for sensitivity studies, uncertainty analysis, history matching, gas production forecasts, and CO 2 storage capacity estimations. One such field test was performed for the Chattanooga Shale formation in Morgan County, Tennessee. Approximately 463 tonnes (510 tons) of CO 2 was successfully injected into a hydraulically fractured horizontal well over a thirteen-day period in March 2014. The injection test was achieved in four steps: pre-injection, injection, soaking, and flowback. In this paper, those steps were modeled with a reservoir simulator to match the historic production and injection rates with gas component compositions and forecast the production for five years. The reservoir fluid was modeled as a multi-component gas, including CH 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , N 2 , and CO 2 . Langmuir constants, reservoir pressure, and fracture network volume were adjusted to match simulation results with observed production rates and gas composition. Results showed that, under the same reservoir conditions, each gas component behaves differently by way of compositional changes in production. CH4 behaves like N2, while CO 2 behaves like heavier hydrocarbons such as C 2 H 6 and C 3 H 8 . CO 2 plume results showed that, after injection, the produced CO 2 is mostly derived from fractured limestone (i.e., Fort Payne Formation) because the injected CO 2 is not adsorbed in limestone but rather by shale formations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

OECD/NEA MPCMIV Benchmark - Preliminary fuel performance results

The on-going OECD/NEA Multi-physics Pellet Cladding Mechanical Interaction Validation (MPCMIV) benchmark aims to provide guidance on multi-physics validation through the modelling of two cold ramps. In this paper, the first results for the base irradiation of the father rod and fuel rodlet (refabricated from the father rod), and the first cold ramp are presented. The base irradiation consists of 3 years of irradiation in the Forsmark-2 reactor. The cold ramp encompasses a steady-state pre-ramp period of less than one hour at a low constant linear heat rate (LHR) followed by a ramp test (< 1 min) with a much higher maximal LHR. The base irradiation is modelled using the fuel performance codes FRAPCON and FAST, while the cold ramp modeling is using the fuel performance code FRAPTRAN. Several missing parameters for FRAPCON/FAST base irradiation models have been selected using multiple references such as the OECD/NEA light water reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) benchmark specifications and the FRAPCON Integral Assessment report. The obtained results for the base irradiation such as the cladding outer diameter show reasonable agreement with the experimental measurements. The results for the cold ramp show larger differences with the experimental measurements (e.g., cladding axial elongation). However, such differences have been observed as well in other studies involving pellet cladding mechanical interaction analyses and are attributed to the fuel performance modelling assumptions and to the tuned modelling parameters that were not covered by the specifications. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis might allow a better quantification of these missing parameters. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Goldsim Modeling of Vadose Zone Transport for E-Area Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas: Model Description and Benchmarking

This report documents the development of a GoldSim® model of flow and radionuclide transport to the water table through the Naval Reactor Components Disposal Area (NRCDA) waste disposal sites and underlying vadose zones. The model is designed to be used for Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis in support of the E-Area Performance Assessment (PA). This report describes the model and shows results obtained from benchmarking the model to best-estimate deterministic results obtained using a PORFLOW model of NRCDA vadose zone transport. The PORFLOW model is three-dimensional while the GoldSim model is a simplified one-dimensional treatment. Nevertheless, the GoldSim model was able to accurately reproduce PORFLOW results with some adjustment to the nominal dispersion coefficient and vadose zone flow area used as “tuning” parameters. An example of the results obtained comparing GoldSim and PORFLOW calculation of releases of I-129, Tc-99, C-14 and Ni-59 from waste disposal containers at the 643-26E site is shown in Figure 1 below. For all of the test cases evaluated, GoldSim predicted peak concentrations within 6% of the PORFLOW values and peak times agreed within 8% with the majority of the results in better agreement. The close agreement between the two models provides confidence that GoldSim will give results accurately reflecting the behavior of releases from the NRCDA under off-normal operating conditions for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic and life cycle assessment of standalone Single-Stream material recovery facilities in the United states

Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) are crucial players in achieving a circular economy. MRFs receive complex waste streams and separate valuable recyclables from these mixtures. This study conducts techno-economic analysis (TEA) to estimate the net present value (NPV) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate different environmental impacts of a commercial scale standalone, single-stream MRF to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impacts of recovering valuable recyclables from an MRF processing 120,000 tonnes per year (t/y). The TEA employs a discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) analysis over a 20-year facility lifetime, along with a sensitivity analysis on the impact of different operating and economic parameters. Results show that the total fixed cost of building the MRF facility is $\$ $23 MM, and the operating cost is $\$ $45.48/tonne. Further the NPV of the MRF can vary from $\$ $3.57 MM to $\$ $60 MM, while 100-year global warming potential can range from 5.98 to 8.53 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per tonne of MSW. We have also found that MSW composition (arising from regional effects) significantly impacts costs, 100-year global warming potential, and other impact categories such as acidification potential, eutrophication potential, ecotoxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, carcinogenic effects, and non-carcinogenic effects. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that waste composition and market prices significantly impact the profitability of the MRF, and the waste composition mostly impacts global warming potential. Our analysis also indicates that facility capacity, fixed capital cost, and waste tipping fees are vital parameters that affect the economic viability of MRF operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Microgravity-Induced Physiological Fluid Redistribution: Computational Analysis to Assess Influence of Physiological Parameters

Space flight impacts human physiology in many ways, the most immediate being the marked cephalad (headward) shift of fluid upon introduction into the microgravity environment. This physiological response to microgravity points to the redistribution of blood and interstitial fluid as a major factor in the loss of venous tone and reduction in heart muscle efficiency which impact astronaut performance. In addition, researchers have hypothesized that a reduction in astronaut visual acuity, part of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome, is associated with this redistribution of fluid. VIIP arises within several months of beginning space flight and includes a variety of ophthalmic changes including posterior globe flattening, distension of the optic nerve sheath, and kinking of the optic nerve. We utilize a suite of lumped parameter models to simulate microgravity-induced fluid redistribution in the cardiovascular, central nervous and ocular systems to provide initial and boundary data to a 3D finite element simulation of ocular biomechanics in VIIP. Specifically, the lumped parameter cardiovascular model acts as the primary means of establishing how microgravity, and the associated lack of hydrostatic gradient, impacts fluid redistribution. The cardiovascular model consists of 16 compartments, including three cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) compartments, three cranial blood compartments, and 10 thoracic and lower limb blood compartments. To assess the models capability to address variations in physiological parameters, we completed a formal uncertainty and sensitivity analysis that evaluated the relative importance of 42 input parameters required in the model on relative compartment flows and compartment pressures. Utilizing the model in a pulsatile flow configuration, the sensitivity analysis identified the ten parameters that most influenced each compartment pressure. Generally, each compartment responded appropriately to parameter variations associated with itself and adjacent compartments. However, several unexpected interactions between components, such as between the choroid plexus and the lower capillaries, were found, and are due to simplifications in the formulation of the model. The analysis illustrates that highly influential parameters and those that have unique influences within the model formulation must be tightly controlled for successful model application.

gravitational physiology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gradient-Informed Design Optimization of Select Nuclear Systems

In this work, we present a gradient-informed design optimization of nuclear reactor core components based on neutronics objectives with both continuous and discrete materials. The main argument in favor of using gradient-informed design optimization is that it scales well with increasing dimensionality of the design space. First, a challenge problem with 121 free parameters is solved with a gradient-informed method and then with a genetic algorithm. Then, a challenge problem to optimize the flux profile of a simplified assembly with eight axial zones is solved. Both challenge problems are solved using directly calculated derivatives from Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) in the SCALE package. Furthermore, we demonstrate how a discrete optimization problem—selection of materials for 121 voxels—can be lifted into a continuous problem with mixed materials. In the continuous space, adjoint-based gradients are well-defined, and gradient descent is applicable. Then, a forcing function is introduced that with the selection of an appropriately sized hyperparameter can be used to guide the optimized continuous solution back into a discrete solution. This paper presents an account of the challenges that were faced when applying a gradient-informed optimization algorithm using a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the gradient information and compares a gradient descent optimization method to a genetic algorithm optimization of the same geometry. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential use of adjoint-based gradient calculations in design optimization of nuclear systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bringing solar to agriculture: An interdisciplinary design and analysis of a Concord grape agrivoltaic system

Agrivoltaics presents an opportunity to integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) with agricultural production, but crop-specific challenges and operational constraints remain underexplored. This study develops and evaluates a Concord grape agrivoltaic system in the Lake Erie American Viticulture Area, where vineyards face economic pressures and land use conflicts with solar development. Starting with vertical, tracking, and overhead PV systems, we model photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) reduction in grapevines and power generation losses from shading using the Agrivoltaic Radiation Tool (ART). Based on these results, which indicate 0.47 % annual grapevine PPFD loss for vertical designs, 1.6 % for tracking, and up to 25 % for the overhead systems, the vertical and tracking designs are selected for further computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate airflow interactions. CFD results show that vertical panels do not significantly impact airflow through the grapevine canopy, and that tracking systems in horizontal position may enhance airflow compared to a vine-only scenario. Considering operational constraints for tracking systems, the vertical design is selected for an economic evaluation to reveal key financial outcomes for solar developers (14-year payback period) and growers ($408 reduction in financial losses per acre annually). A sensitivity analysis quantifies uncertainty in power generation (±8.8 %) and PPFD (±5.0 %), ensuring model robustness across different vineyard conditions. Furthermore, these findings provide quantitative evidence for the feasibility of Concord grape agrivoltaics, demonstrating a synergistic opportunity for dual-use solar while preserving cultural heritage in grape-growing regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A computationally-efficient method for flamelet calculations

A new open-source code for the simulation of the diffusion flamelet equations is proposed. Emphasis is placed on using an approximate Jacobian to reduce the computational cost of the matrix operations. Performance of the proposed solvers is tested by performing flamelet calculations with kinetic mechanisms of varying sizes. For the unity Lewis number equations, the present iterative Newton solver using an approximate Jacobian greatly outperforms direct Newton solvers using exact Jacobians. The computation cost scales linearly with the number of species, leading to a reduction in solution times by two orders of magnitude for mechanisms containing thousands of species. The applicability of the Jacobian approximations to the solution of the non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations is assessed. The approximations are generally inadequate to solve the full non-unity Lewis number equations but can be used in some applications depending on the balance of terms in the flamelet equations. As an example, the flamelet solver is applied to the study of sooting tendencies in laminar co-flow diffusion flames where modified non-unity Lewis number flamelet equations, previously shown to accurately reproduce experimentally-measured Yield Sooting Indices (YSI), are solved. Here, the accelerated flamelet solver is well suited for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification with large detailed kinetic mechanisms, tasks for which the computational cost was previously prohibitive.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗