Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

BioSentinel: To the Moon or Beyond?

BioSentinel, an Artemis-1 secondary spacecraft, will carry a biology experiment into deep space for the first time in 50 years. A 6U CubeSat form factor was utilized for the spacecraft and included technologies newly developed or adapted for operations beyond Earth orbit. This is the maiden deep-space voyage for the radio, propulsion system, electrical power system, and BioSensor payload. The spacecraft carries onboard budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as an analog to human cells to test the biological response to deep space radiation. Flying a secondary payload beyond LEO comes with unique challenges with respect to trajectory uncertainty and mission operations planning. BioSentinel does not carry propulsion for trajectory maneuvers, so plans for Comms and Power need to be developed for all trajectories. The nominal plan is a lunar flyby followed by an insertion into Heliocentric orbit. However, some possible scenarios include lunar eclipses that could severely impact the power budget during that phase of the mission, while others could result in a “Retrograde” hyperbola at swingby resulting in the spacecraft traveling inward toward Earth or even towards a collision with the lunar surface. BioSentinel’s final trajectory will not be known until after launch and deployment so possible scenarios need to be planned for ahead of time. This paper discusses the operational scenarios that were planned for as well as the actual execution of the mission operations including: command pass scheduling with the Deep Space Network, selecting bandwidth limits, medium gain antenna versus low gain antenna usage, and conserving power prior to a lunar eclipse. Note: Artemis-1 is planned to launch in the Spring of 2022

BioSentinel↗

Development of Space Mission Integrated Operations Scenarios

Integrated Operations Scenarios (IOS) describe nominal operations planned for a space mission. Operational scenarios are key to an operations concept, as they help identify issues and drivers on the operations system. This paper covers the tools, processes, and inputs that feed into an IOS product, and how IOS iterations during a mission lifecycle can buy down operational risks. A case used for this paper is nominal operations for an initial crewed Artemis mission that includes cross-program sequence of tasks required to accomplish end to end functions from launch through transit, on-orbit operations, to safely return to Earth. An IOS product serves as a reference for discussions during requirements development, task and risk analyses, concept of operations development, and as foundation to prepare space mission flight plans.

integrated operations scenarios↗

Participatory Technology Assessment for Mars Mission Planning: Public Values and Rationales

Public support and interest are needed to design an ambitious human spaceflight program. However, it is difficult to understand what the public values and would support. And it is even more challenging and rare to consider public views prior to actually developing a mission. Participatory technology assessment (pTA) is a method that aims to understand public preferences and values in order to inform upstream government decision-making. We assess a recently completed experiment in pTA, the "Informing NASA's Asteroid Initiative" project. Through a cooperative agreement with NASA, the Expert and Citizen Assessment of Science and Technology (ECAST) network conducted a pTA-based forum on NASA's Asteroid Initiative and the Journey to Mars. ECAST organized two citizen forums in Phoenix, Arizona and Boston, Massachusetts in November 2014, with a total of 183 citizens selected so as to minimize self-selection biases. This paper focuses on the "Journey to Mars" session, which had the primary goal of soliciting citizen perceptions about different Mars exploration scenarios and mission planning approaches. Citizens were given background information about three potential Mars exploration scenarios that NASA could carry out: 1) Crewed orbital mission to direct robots on the surface of Mars; 2) Short exploratory crewed mission to the surface of Mars; and 3) establishing a permanent settlement. Citizens then engaged in structured facilitated discussions about their preferences among the scenarios and NASA's mission planning approach. Using a grounded theory coding approach, we analyzed participants' written rationales and dialogue about Mars exploration. In general, participants did not show a strong preference for any particular mission profile, but there was a slight preference for the crewed orbital robotics scenario. Participants who supported this approach saw it as the quickest, safest, and least costly road to a successful mission. However, many participants were interested in seeing "boots on the ground," as they believed this would propel scientific advancement, increase excitement about space exploration, and make humans a "two-planet species."

Bertrand, Pierre↗

Dataset for Blueprinting Electrified Transit System Implementation

This dataset contains the figures and tabulated results generated from a system-level optimization study of transit fleet electrification planning. The dataset does not include executable modeling code required to reproduce the optimization. The dataset includes results for optimized charging infrastructure deployment by location and power level and service block assignments by fuel type, battery capacity selections, and distributed energy resource sizing. It also contains aggregated financial results, capital expenditures, operating cost summaries, net present cost comparisons across scenarios, and quantified air quality impacts. Results are structured to reflect multiple planning scenarios, including heuristic electrification plans, system-optimized configurations, and sensitivity cases with alternative objective weightings. The modeling was developed using publicly available General Transit Feed Specification data from Omnitrans and standardized modeling assumptions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dataset for Blueprinting Electrified Transit System Implementation

This dataset contains the figures and tabulated results generated from a system-level optimization study of transit fleet electrification planning. The dataset does not include executable modeling code required to reproduce the optimization. The dataset includes results for optimized charging infrastructure deployment by location and power level and service block assignments by fuel type, battery capacity selections, and distributed energy resource sizing. It also contains aggregated financial results, capital expenditures, operating cost summaries, net present cost comparisons across scenarios, and quantified air quality impacts. Results are structured to reflect multiple planning scenarios, including heuristic electrification plans, system-optimized configurations, and sensitivity cases with alternative objective weightings. The modeling was developed using publicly available General Transit Feed Specification data from Omnitrans and standardized modeling assumptions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Planning for Crew Exercise for Future Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Providing the necessary exercise capability to protect crew health for deep space missions will bring new sets of engineering and research challenges. Exercise has been found to be a necessary mitigation for maintaining crew health on‐orbit and preparing the crew for return to earth's gravity. Health and exercise data from Apollo, Space Lab, Shuttle, and International Space Station missions have provided insight into crew deconditioning and the types of activities that can minimize the impacts of microgravity on the physiological systems. The hardware systems required to implement exercise can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Exercise system design requires encompassing the hardware required to provide mission specific anthropometrical movement ranges, desired loads, and frequencies of desired movements as well as the supporting control and monitoring systems, crew and vehicle interfaces, and vibration isolation and stabilization subsystems. The number of crew and operational constraints also contribute to defining the what exercise systems will be needed. All of these features require flight vehicle mass and volume integrated with multiple vehicle systems. The International Space Station exercise hardware requires over 1,800 kg of equipment and over 24 m3 of volume for hardware and crew operational space. Improvements towards providing equivalent or better capabilities with a smaller vehicle impact will facilitate future deep space missions. Deep space missions will require more understanding of the physiological responses to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, designing the exercise systems to provide needed mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

Moore, Cherice↗

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An Impedance-Based Complexity Metric for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Scenario Classification

This paper introduces an impedance-based metric to capture the complexity of a given unmanned aircraft system traffic scenario. The metric accounts for both the number of aircraft and the traffic flow pattern. The work presented here extends an earlier approach that introduced another scenario complexity metric based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. Complexity measurements for randomly-generated scenarios were produced through high-fidelity fast-time simulations and treated as baseline. Then the impedance based metric was evaluated, for the same scenarios, without the need for an actual flight simulation and a conflict resolution method. The results show that the impedance-based metric has a strong correlation to the baseline data and performs marginally better than the weighted conflict-based complexity metric introduced in the earlier work. The metric computation generates impedance maps which are useful for identifying high complexity regions in a scenario, where flight plan changes might be necessitated. This metric can therefore be used, in conjunction with other complexity metrics, to inform adequate traffic management strategies and classify a traffic scenario as acceptable, unacceptable or acceptable with changes made to flight plans that pass through the high complexity regions. The metric can also be used as a guidance metric for strategic conflict management methods.

Complexity↗

Software for Planning Scientific Activities on Mars

Mixed-Initiative Activity Plan Generator (MAPGEN) is a ground-based computer program for planning and scheduling the scientific activities of instrumented exploratory robotic vehicles, within the limitations of available resources onboard the vehicle. MAPGEN is a combination of two prior software systems: (1) an activity-planning program, APGEN, developed at NASA s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and (2) the Europa planner/scheduler from NASA Ames Research Center. MAPGEN performs all of the following functions: Automatic generation of plans and schedules for scientific and engineering activities; Testing of hypotheses (or what-if analyses of various scenarios); Editing of plans; Computation and analysis of resources; and Enforcement and maintenance of constraints, including resolution of temporal and resource conflicts among planned activities. MAPGEN can be used in either of two modes: one in which the planner/scheduler is turned off and only the basic APGEN functionality is utilized, or one in which both component programs are used to obtain the full planning, scheduling, and constraint-maintenance functionality.

Ai-Chang, Mitchell↗

Space Shuttle launch pad rescue plan

The final preparation of the Space Shuttle Orbiter for flight involves the loading of large quantities of hazardous propellants. Additionally, many pyrotechnially operated mechanical joints are armed and ready for flight. The personnel manning at the pad is minimized during these operations to reduce the risk. Upon completion of propellant loading, the flight crew must be boarded onto the vehicle which at this point has tremendous potential energy. Plans have been made to safely and quickly evacuate the crew should some unforeseen contigency occur. Both aided and unaided egress scenarios have been planned. Personnel protective equipment is an important consideration to assure the highest chance for survival. Rapid movement of personnel is enhanced by the use of the slidewire system and specially prepared armored personnel carriers. The end result is a system that provides a reasonable chance of survival should an emergency occur during late countdown at the pad.

Doerr, Donald F.↗

Scenario optimization for the tokamak ramp-down phase in RAPTOR: Part B. safe termination of DEMO plasmas

An optimized plasma current ramp-down strategy is critical for safe and fast termination of plasma discharges in a tokamak demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO), both in planned and emergency scenarios, avoiding plasma disruptions and excessive heat loads to the first wall. Plasma stability limits and machine-specific technical requirements constrain the stable envelope through which the plasma must be navigated. Large amounts of auxiliary heating are required throughout the ramp-down phase, to avoid a radiative collapse in the presence of intrinsic tungsten and seeded xenon impurities, as quantitatively estimated in this work. As the plasma current is reduced, the current density becomes increasingly peaked, reflected by a growing value of the internal inductance $\ell$ $i3$ , resulting in reduced controllability of the vertical position of the plasma. The feasibility of different plasma current ramp-down rates is tested by applying an automated optimization framework embedding the RAPTOR core transport solver. Optimal time traces for plasma current $I$ $p$ $(t)$ and plasma elongation $κ(t)$ are proposed, to satisfy an $I$ $p$ -dependent upper limit on the plasma internal inductance, as obtained from vertical stability studies using the CREATE-NL code, as well as a constraint on the time evolution of $q$ 95 , to avoid an ideal MHD mode. A negative current density near the plasma edge is observed in our simulations, even for the most conservative $I$ $p$ ramp-down rate, indicating significant transient dynamics due to a large resistive time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Scenario Complexity for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic

This work introduces an approach to estimate the complexity of a low-altitude air traffic scenario involving multiple UASs using mathematical programming. Given a set of multi-point UAS flight trajectories, vehicle dynamics, and a conflict resolution algorithm, an abstract model is developed such that it can be solved quickly using a mathematical programming optimization software without running high-fidelity simulations that can be computationally expensive and may not suit real-time apA quick and accurate assessment of complexity for a given traffic scenario can help plan and schedule flights to alleviate traffic bottleneck and mitigate operation risks, especially for unmanned aerial system traffic management where high traffic density or complexity is expected. This work introduces a traffic scenario complexity metric that was constructed based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. The cost associated with a conflict is calculated based on the corresponding conflict resolution maneuvers. To obtain the conflict resolution maneuvers, a MILP-based optimization was formulated with the vehicle model and conflict management parameters incorporated. To evaluate the complexity metrics, an approach of using measurements from high-fidelity simulations was proposed. The scenario complexity measurements for 920 random-generated scenarios were obtained through high-fidelity simulations and treated as the ground truth. Two statistics methods: Pearson and Alternative Conditional Expectations were applied for analysis. The results showed that the number of flights has low correlation with the scenario complexity according to the correlation coefficients calculated by both methods. The Alternative Conditional Expectations method shows that the proposed scenario complexity metric has better correlation with the ground truth than the number of potential conflicts.plications. In the abstract model, each vehicle is represented by a time-varied vector associated with position, speed, and heading information. The total extra distance that aircraft need to divert from their original routes to avoid collisions is computed and used to setup a quadratic programming formula. The metrics including the number of conflicts and extra distances travelled by all vehicles are then utilized to estimate the complexity of a given UAS flight scenario. Results and verification against high-fidelity simulations will be provided in the final draft.

traffic complexity↗

A Model-based Approach to Controlling the ST-5 Constellation Lights-Out Using the GMSEC Message Bus and Simulink

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three-satellite constellation, technology validation mission under the New Millennium Program at NASA to be launched in March 2006. One of the key technologies to be validated is a lights-out, model-based operations approach to be used for one week to control the ST-5 constellation with no manual intervention. The ground architecture features the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) middleware, which allows easy plugging in of software components and a standardized messaging protocol over a software bus. A predictive modeling tool built on MatLab's Simulink software package makes use of the GMSEC standard messaging protocol to interface to the Advanced Mission Planning System (AMPS) Scenario Scheduler which controls all activities, resource allocation and real-time re-profiling of constellation resources when non-nominal events occur. The key features of this system, which we refer to as the ST-5 Simulink system, are as follows: Original daily plan is checked to make sure that predicted resources needed are available by comparing the plan against the model. As the plan is run in real-time, the system re-profiles future activities in real-time if planned activities do not occur in the predicted timeframe or fashion. Alert messages are sent out on the GMSEC bus by the system if future predicted problems are detected. This will allow the Scenario Scheduler to correct the situation before the problem happens. The predictive model is evolved automatically over time via telemetry updates thus reducing the cost of implementing and maintaining the models by an order of magnitude from previous efforts at GSFC such as the model-based system built for MAP in the mid-1990's. This paper will describe the key features, lessons learned and implications for future missions once this system is successfully validated on-orbit in 2006.

Witt, Kenneth J.↗

Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance

Thailand has established a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching this goal will require coordination and collaboration between stakeholders spanning sectors and scales, including energy system decision makers, land managers, and city planners. Robust decarbonization scenarios incorporating current plans and targets, additional measures needed, and trade-offs between strategies can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through iterative engagement with decision makers at the city and national levels, we develop and analyze carbon neutral scenarios for Thailand that incorporate Bangkok’s role using a global integrated assessment model. We find that Thailand can reach carbon neutrality through power sector decarbonization, energy efficiency improvements, widespread electrification, and advanced technologies including carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. Negative emissions technologies will also be needed to offset Thailand and Bangkok’s hardest-to-abate CO 2 emissions. Bangkok, as a major population and economic center, contributes significantly to Thailand’s energy demand and emissions and can therefore play an important role in climate change mitigation. Accordingly, our results underscore the importance of subnational climate action in meeting Thailand’s carbon neutral goal. Our analysis also indicates that without sustained land-based carbon sequestration, much more mitigation effort will be needed in Thailand’s energy sector, including at the subnational scale, to reach carbon neutrality. These insights can help stakeholders identify priorities, consider tradeoffs, and make decisions that will impact Bangkok and Thailand’s long-term climate change mitigation potential. This analysis demonstrates how stakeholder engagement in integrated assessment modeling can facilitate and inform multilevel climate governance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar Resource and Infrastructure Assessment for the Town of Blandford

This report is a solar resource and infrastructure assessment for the town of Blandford, Massachusetts. The assessment was funded through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Energy Innovation Network (NREL SEIN) Solar in Rural Communities Program, as part of a project to develop a Community-Informed Proactive Solar Siting and Financing Model. As a first step, the project lead organization, UMass Clean Energy Extension prepared an assessment of existing infrastructure, resources, and potential solar development opportunities in participating municipalities, including Blandford. This assessment was designed to describe relevant bylaws and infrastructure within the town, identify the types of solar facilities that could be developed, and quantify the total space available for each type of facility. In this report, we reviewed existing electricity grid infrastructure, and the potential to interconnect additional solar facilities. At the present time, most distribution lines providing electricity to Blandford are over-saturated with authorized and proposed solar projects, and cannot accommodate additional solar projects to interconnect to the grid. We can expect significant upgrades to these circuits, if any of the in-process projects are to proceed, which might then free up additional capacity for new projects. There is one circuit which serves a section of North Blandford Road that is not over-saturated; for the immediate future, this is the most cost-effective location for new large-scale projects to be sited. Meanwhile, most three-phase lines could likely accommodate additional small-to-medium scale projects (under 200 kW), and most single-phase lines could likely accommodate additional projects under 50 kW in size. This description represents the local grid infrastructure as it is - planning for future scenarios of development could include recommendations for areas of grid infrastructure improvement to allow siting of distributed generation in preferred locations. Future scenarios may also include the addition energy storage and other "non-wires alternatives."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Resource and Infrastructure Assessment for the Town of Wendell

This report is a solar resource and infrastructure assessment for the town of Wendell, Massachusetts. The assessment was funded through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Energy Innovation Network (NREL SEIN) Solar in Rural Communities Program, as part of a project to develop a Community-Informed Proactive Solar Siting and Financing Model. As a first step, the project lead organization, UMass Clean Energy Extension prepared an assessment of existing infrastructure, resources, and potential solar development opportunities in participating municipalities, including Wendell. This assessment was designed to describe relevant bylaws and infrastructure within the town, identify the types of solar facilities that could be developed, and quantify the total space available for each type of facility. In this report, we reviewed existing electricity grid infrastructure, and the potential to interconnect additional solar facilities. At the present time, both distribution lines providing electricity to Wendell are over-saturated with authorized and proposed solar projects, and cannot accommodate additional solar projects to interconnect to the grid. It appears that National Grid is planning an upgrade to the Wendell Depot substation, which might then allow in-process projects are to proceed, and potentially free up additional capacity for new, large projects. Meanwhile, most three-phase lines could likely accommodate additional small-to-medium scale projects (under 200 kW), and most single-phase lines could likely accommodate additional projects under 50 kW in size. This description represents the local grid infrastructure as it is - planning for future scenarios of development could include recommendations for areas of grid infrastructure improvement to allow siting of distributed generation in locations preferred by the community. Future scenarios may also include the addition energy storage and other "non-wires alternatives."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Resource and Infrastructure Assessment for the Town of Westhampton

This report is a solar resource and infrastructure assessment for the town of Westhampton, Massachusetts. The assessment was funded through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Energy Innovation Network (NREL SEIN) Solar in Rural Communities Program, as part of a project to develop a Community-Informed Proactive Solar Siting and Financing Model. As a first step, the project lead organization, UMass Clean Energy Extension prepared an assessment of existing infrastructure, resources, and potential solar development opportunities in participating municipalities, including Westhampton. This assessment was designed to describe relevant bylaws and infrastructure within the town, identify the types of solar facilities that could be developed, and quantify the total space available for each type of facility. In this report, we reviewed existing electricity grid infrastructure, and the potential to interconnect additional solar facilities. At the present time, both distribution lines providing electricity to Westhampton are oversaturated with authorized and proposed solar projects, and cannot accommodate additional solar projects to interconnect to the grid. Future upgrades could potentially free up additional capacity for new, large projects. Meanwhile, most three-phase lines could likely accommodate additional small-to-medium scale projects (under 200 kW), and most single-phase lines could likely accommodate additional projects under 50 kW in size. This description represents the local grid infrastructure as it is - planning for future scenarios of development could include recommendations for areas of grid infrastructure improvement to allow siting of distributed generation in locations preferred by the community. Future scenarios may also include the addition energy storage and other "non-wires alternatives."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗