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NASA NTRS2001

Effect of Under-Resolved Grids on High Order Methods

There has been much discussion on verification and validation processes for establishing the credibility of CFD simulations. Since the early 1990s, many of the aeronautical and mechanical engineering related reference journals mandated that any accepted articles in numerical simulations (without known solutions to compared with) need to perform a minimum of one level of grid refinement and time step reduction. Due to the difficulty in analysis, the effect of under-resolved grids and the nonlinear behavior of available spatial discretizations, are scarcely discussed in the literature. Here, an under-resolved numerical simulation is one where the grid spacing being used is too coarse to resolve the smallest physically relevant scales of the chosen continuum governing equations that are of interest to the numerical modeler. With the advent of new developments in fourth-order or higher spatial schemes, it has become common to regard high order schemes as more accurate, reliable and require less grid points. The danger comes when one tries to perform computations with the coarsest grid possible while still hoping to maintain numerical results sufficiently accurate for complex flows, and especially, data-limited problems. On one hand, high order methods when applies to highly coupled multidimensional complex nonlinear problems might have different stability, convergence and reliability behavior than their well studied low order counterparts, especially for nonlinear schemes such as TVD, MUSCL with limiters, ENO, WENO and discrete Galerkin. On the other hand, high order methods involve more operation counts and systematic grid convergence study can be time consuming and prohibitively expansive. At the same time it is difficult to fully understand or categorize the different nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations, especially at the limits of under-resolution when different types of bifurcation phenomena might occur, depending on the combination of grid spacings, time steps, initial conditions and numerical treatments of boundary conditions.

Yee, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Water Resources Program

With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. In addition to the numerous water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The potential crises and conflicts especially arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. and also in numerous parts of the world. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands and needs requires using existing water resources more efficiently. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products and technology to address these critical water issues. The primary goal of the Water Resources is to facilitate application of NASA Earth science products as a routine use in integrated water resources management for the sustainable use of water. This also includes the extreme events of drought and floods and the adaptation to the impacts from climate change. NASA satellite and Earth system observations of water and related data provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as precipitation, snow, soil moisture, water levels, land cover type, vegetation type, and health. NASA Water Resources Program works closely to use NASA and Earth science data with other U.S. government agencies, universities, and non-profit and private sector organizations both domestically and internationally. The NASA Water Resources Program organizes its projects under five functional themes. I) Streamflow and Flood Forecasting 2) Water Supply and Irrigation (includes evapotranspiration) 3) Drought 4) Water Quality 5) Climate and Water Resources. To maximize this activity NASA Water Resources Program works closely with other government agencies (e.g., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA); the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USAID, the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)), universities, non-profit national and international organizations, and the private sector. The NASA Water Resources program currently is funding 21 active projects under the functional themes (http://wmp.gsfc.nasa.gov & http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/applied-sciences/).

Toll, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Spacecraft Materials Selector: An Artificial Intelligence System for Preliminary Design Trade Studies, Materials Assessments, and Estimates of Environments Present

Institutions need ways to retain valuable information even as experienced individuals leave an organization. Modern electronic systems have enough capacity to retain large quantities of information that can mitigate the loss of experience. Performance information for long-term space applications is relatively scarce and specific information (typically held by a few individuals within a single project) is often rather narrowly distributed. Spacecraft operate under severe conditions and the consequences of hardware and/or system failures, in terms of cost, loss of information, and time required to replace the loss, are extreme. These risk factors place a premium on appropriate choice of materials and components for space applications. An expert system is a very cost-effective method for sharing valuable and scarce information about spacecraft performance. Boeing has an artificial intelligence software package, called the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), to construct and operate knowledge bases to selectively recall and distribute information about specific subjects. A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft has been developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described. The knowledge base is a backward-chaining, rule-based system. The user answers a sequence of questions, and the expert system provides estimates of optical and mechanical performance of selected materials under specific environmental conditions. The initial operating capability of the system will include data for Kapton, silverized Teflon, selected paints, silicone-based materials, and certain metals. For situations where a mission profile (launch date, orbital parameters, mission duration, spacecraft orientation) is not precisely defined, the knowledge base still attempts to provide qualitative observations about materials performance and likely exposures. Prior to the NASA contract, a knowledge base, the Spacecraft Environments Assistant (SEA,) was initially developed by Boeing to estimate the environmental factors important for a specific spacecraft mission profile. The NASA SEE program has funded specific enhancements to the capability of this knowledge base. The SEA qualitatively identifies over 25 environmental factors that may influence the performance of a spacecraft during its operational lifetime. For cases where sufficiently detailed answers are provided to questions asked by the knowledge base, atomic oxygen fluence levels, proton and/or electron fluence and dose levels, and solar exposure hours are calculated. The SMS knowledge base incorporates the previously developed SEA knowledge base. A case history for previous flight experiment will be shown as an example, and capabilities and limitations of the system will be discussed.

Pippin, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Regional Impacts of Woodland Expansion on Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Texas Savannahs: Combining Field, Modeling and Remote Sensing Approaches

Woody encroachment has contributed to documented changes world-wide and locally in the southwestern U.S. Specifically, in North Texas rangelands encroaching mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa var. glandulosa) a known N-fixing species has caused changes in aboveground biomass. While measurements of aboveground plant production are relatively common, measures of soil N availability are scarce and vary widely. N trace gas emissions (nitric and nitrous oxide) flom soils reflect patterns in current N cycling rates and availability as they are stimulated by inputs of organic and inorganic N. Quantification of N oxide emissions from savanna soils may depend upon the spatial distribution of woody plant canopies, and specifically upon the changes in N availability and cycling and subsequent N trace gas production as influenced by the shift from herbaceous to woody vegetation type. The main goal of this research was to determine whether remotely sensible parameters of vegetation structure and soil type could be used to quantify biogeochemical changes in N at local, landscape and regional scales. To accomplish this goal, field-based measurements of N trace gases were carried out between 2000-2001, encompassing the acquisition of imaging spectrometer data from the NASA Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) on September 29, 2001. Both biotic (vegetation type and soil organic N) and abiotic (soil type, soil pH, temperature, soil moisture, and soil inorganic N) controls were analyzed for their contributions to observed spatial and temporal variation in soil N gas fluxes. These plot level studies were used to develop relationships between spatially extensive, field-based measurements of N oxide fluxes and remotely sensible aboveground vegetation and soil properties, and to evaluate the short-term controls over N oxide emissions through intensive field wetting experiments. The relationship between N oxide emissions, remotely-sensed parameters (vegetation cover, and soil type), and physical controls (soil moisture, and temperature) permitted the regional scale quantification of soil N oxides emissions. Landscape scale analysis linking N oxide emissions with cover change revealed an alleviation from N limitation following mesquite invasion. This study demonstrated the advantage of using N trace gases as a measure of ecosystem N availability combined with remote sensing to characterize the spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem parameters at a scale commensurate with field-based measurements of these properties. Woody vegetation encroachment provided an opportunity to capitalize on detection of the remotely-sensible parameter of woody cover as it relates to belowground biogeochemical processes that determine N trace gas production. The first spatially-explicit estimates of NO flux were calculated based on Prosopis fractional cover derived from high resolution remote sensing estimates of fractional woody cover (< 4 m) for a 120 sq km region of North Texas. An assessment of both N stocks and fluxes from the study revealed an alleviation of N limitation at this site experiencing recent woody encroachment. Many arid and semi-arid regions of the world are experiencing woody invasions, often of N-fixing species. The issue of woody encroachment is in the center of an ecological and political debate. Improving the links between biogeochemical processes and remote sensing of ecosystem properties will improve our understanding of biogeochemical processes at the regional scale, thus providing a means to address issues of land-use and land-cover change.

Asner, Gregory P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Microreactor System Design for a NASA In Situ Propellant Production Plant on Mars

The NASA In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) program is planning near-term missions to Mars that will include chemical processes for converting the carbon dioxide (CO2) and possibly water from the Martian environment to propellants, oxygen, and other useful chemicals. The use of indigenous resources reduces the size and weight of the payloads from Earth significantly, representing enormous cost savings that make human exploration of Mars affordable. Extraterrestrial chemical processing plants will need to be compact, lightweight, highly efficient under reduced gravity, and extraordinarily reliable for long periods. Microchemical and thermal systems represent capability for dramatic reduction in size and weight, while offering high reliability through massive parallelization. In situ propellant production (ISPP), one aspect of the ISRU program, involves collecting and pressurizing atmospheric CO2, conversion reactions, chemical separations, heat exchangers, and cryogenic storage. A preliminary system design of an ISPP plant based on microtechnology has demonstrated significant size, weight, and energy efficiency gains over the current NASA baseline. Energy management is a strong driver for Mars-based processes, not only because energy is a scarce resource, but because heat rejection is problematic; the low pressure environment makes convective heat transfer ineffective. Energy efficiency gains are largely achieved in the microchemical plant through extensive heat recuperation and energy cascading, which has a small size and weight penalty because the added micro heat exchangers are small. This leads to additional size and weight gains by reducing the required area of waste heat radiators. The microtechnology-based ISPP plant is described in detail, including aspects of pinch analysis for optimizing the heat exchanger network. Three options for thermochemical compression Of CO2 from the Martian atmosphere, adsorption, absorption, and cryogenic freezing, are presented, as well as three options for water decomposition, low temperature electrolysis, high temperature electrolysis, and thermochemical decomposition. Other elements of the plant include Sabatier and reverse water gas shift reactors, water recovery, chemical separations, and cryogenic storage. Data are presented supporting preliminary sizing of components, and results of the system design are compared to the existing NASA baseline that is based on conventional technologies.

TeGrotenhuis, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Quantifying the Importance of Selected Drought Indicators for the United States Drought Monitor

Using information theory, our study quantifies the importance of selected indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps. We use the technique of mutual information (MI) to measure the importance of any indicator to the USDM, and because MI is derived solely from the data, our findings are independent of any model structure (conceptual, physically-based, or empirical). We also compare these MIs against the drought representation effectiveness ratings in the North America Drought Indices and Indicators Assessment (NADIIA) survey for Koeppen climate zones. This reveals: [1] agreement between some ratings and our MI values (high for example indicators like Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index or SPEI); [2] some divergences (for example, soil moisture has high ratings but near-zero MIs for ESA-CCI soil moisture in the Western U.S., indicating the need of another remotely sensed soil moisture source); and [3] new insights into the importance of variables such as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) that are not included in sources like NADIIA. Further analysis of the MI results yields findings related to: [1] hydrological mechanisms (summertime SWE domination during individual drought events through snowmelt into the water-scarce soil); [2] hydroclimatic types (the top pair of inputs in the Western and non-Western regions are SPEIs and soil moistures respectively); and [3] predictability (high for the California 2012-2017 event, with longer-timescale indicators dominating). Finally, the high MIs between multiple indicators jointly and the USDM indicate potentially high drought forecasting accuracies achievable using only model-based inputs, and the potential for global drought monitoring using only remotely sensed inputs, especially for locations having insufficient in situ observations.

Drought↗

NASA NTRS2011

Eucrite Impact Melt NWA 5218 - Evidence for a Large Crater on Vesta

Northwest Africa (NWA) 5218 is a 76 g achondrite that is classified as a eucrite [1]. However, an initial classification [2] describes it as a "eucrite shock-melt breccia...(in which) large, partially melted cumulate basalt clasts are set in a shock melt flow...". We explore the petrology of this clast-bearing impact melt rock (Fig. 1), which could be a characteristic lithology at large impact craters on asteroid Vesta [3]. Methods: Optical microscopy, scanning electronmicroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy were used on a thin section (Fig. 1) for petrographic characterization. The impact melt composition was determined by 20 m diameter defocused-beam analyses with a Cameca SX-100 electron microprobe. The data from 97 spots were corrected for mineral density effects [4]. Constituent mineral phases were analyzed with a focusedbeam. Bidirectonal visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and biconical FT-IR reflectance spectra were measured on the surface of a sample slab on its central melt area and on an eucrite clast, and from 125-500 m and <125 m powders of melt. Results: General petrography: The sample specimen is a coherent, medium dark-grey (N4), melt rock. The thin section captures a central, subophitic-textured melt that contains ~1 cm to tens of m-size subangular to rounded, variably-shocked eucrite clasts. Clasts >100 m are coarse-grained with equigranular ~1 mm size plagioclase, quartz, and clinopyroxene (Fig. 1). Single crystals of chromite, ilmenite, zircon, Ca-Mg phosphate, Fe-metal, and troilite are embedded in the melt. Polymineralic clasts are mostly compositionally similar to the above mentioned larger clasts but scarce granulitic fragments are observed as well.

Wittmann, Axel↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Processes involved in the formation of magnesian-suite plutonic rocks from the highlands of the Earth's Moon

The earliest evolution of the Moon likely included the formation of a magma ocean and the subsequent development of anorthositic flotation cumulates. This primary anorthositic crust was then intruded by mafic magmas which crystallized to form the lunar highlands magnesian suite. The present study is a compilation of petrologic, mineral-chemical, and geochemical information on all pristine magnesian-suite plutonic rocks and the interpretation of this data in light of 18 'new' samples. Of these 18 clasts taken from Apollo 14 breccias, 12 are probably pristine and include four dunites, two norites, four troctolites, and two anorthosites. Radiogenic isotopic whole rock data also are reported for one of the 'probably pristine' anorthositic troctolites, sample 14303,347. The relatively low Rb content and high Sm and Nd abundances of 14303,347 suggest that this cumulate rock was derived from a parental magma which had these chemical characteristics. Trace element, isotopic, and mineral-chemical data are used to interpret the total highlands magnesian suite as crustal precipitates of a primitive KREEP (possessing a K-, rare earth element (REE)-, and P-enriched chemical signature) basalt magma. This KREEP basalt was created by the mixing of ascending ultramafic melts from the lunar interior with urKREEP (the late, K-, REE-, and P-enriched residuum of the lunar magma ocean). A few samples of the magnesian suite with extremely elevated large-ion lithophile elements (5-10x other magnesian-suite rocks) cannot be explained by this model or any other model of autometasomatism, equilibrium crystallization, or 'local melt-pocket equilibrium' without recourse to an extremely large-ion lithophile element-enriched parent liquid. It is difficult to generate parental liquids which are 2-4 x higher in the REE than average lunar KREEP, unless the liquids are the basic complement of a liquid-liquid pair, i.e., the so-called 'REEP-fraction,' from the silicate liquid immiscibility of urKREEP. Scarce age information on lunar rocks suggests that magnesian-suite magmatism was initiated at progressively more recent time from the northeast to the southwest on the lunar nearside from 4.45 to 4.25 Ga.

Snyder, Gregory A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Use of Drying Technologies for Resource Recovery from Solid Wastes and Brines

Long term storage of unprocessed biological wastes and human wastes can present major health issues and a loss of potential resources. Space vehicles and planetary habitats are typically resource-scarce or resource-limited environments for long-term human habitation. To-date, most of the resources will need to be supplied from Earth, but this may not be possible for long duration human exploration. Based on present knowledge, there is only very limited in-situ resources on planetary habitats. Hence, the opportunity to "live off the land" in a planetary habitat is limited. However, if we assume that wastes generated by human explorers are viewed as resources, there is great potential to utilize and recycle them, thereby reducing the requirements for supply Earth and enabling the "live off the land" exploration scenario. Technologies used for the recovery of resources from wastes should be reliable, safe, easy to operate, fail-proof, modular, automated and preferably multifunctional in being capable of handling mixed solid and liquid wastes. For a lunar habitat, energy does not appear to be the major driving factor amongst the technologies studied. Instead, reliability appears to be more important[1] . This paper reports studies to date on drying technologies to remove water from solid wastes and brines. Experimental performance data obtained for recovery water from wastes and brine are presented. Simplicity of operation of hardware and energy efficiency are discussed. Some improvements and modifications to hardware were performed. Hopefully, this information will assist in future efforts in the "downselection" of technologies for recovery of water and resources from solid wastes and brines.

Wignarajah, Kanapathipillai↗

NASA NTRS2003

Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Heuristic Algorithm

Anagnostakis, Ioannis↗

NASA NTRS1993

Derivation of the midinfrared (5.0-25.0 micron) optical constants of hydrous carbonate and sulfate

There is ample theoretical and observational evidence suggesting liquid water was once stable at the surface of Mars. Because water is essential to the evolution of life, it is important to understand the types of environments in which the liquid water was present. For example, if water were present early in Mars' history, then this raises the possibility that biological activity may have evolved only to eventually become extinct as liquid water became scarce. Alternatively, if liquid water were stable only later in Mars' history, then it becomes problematic to envision mechanisms by which biological activity evolved and remained viable without water until more favorable conditions existed. Even without biological activity, atmospheric carbon dioxide dissolved in water can assist the chemical weathering of primary igneous minerals producing common secondary phases such as hydartes, carbonates, and sulfates. While the identification of hydrates, carbonates, and sulfates on Mars cannot provide direct evidence of biological activity, it can provide significant information regarding the presence and duration of an environment that would support the presence of liquid water at the surface. The specific mineralogy of these secondary phases can provide insight into the environments of their formation. For example, the slow precipitation that occurs in large standing bodies of water, e.g. oceans or lakes, commonly results in the formation of calcite, magnesite, dolomite, siderite, and rhodochrosite. Rapid precipitation that occurs in ephemeral bodies of water, e.g. hypersaline lakes or playas, can result in the formation of all of the above phases as well as aragonite, vaterite, hydrated carbonates, alkali carbonates, bicarbonates, and other poorly ordered phases. Absorption features identified in recent near-infrared spectra of Mars have been interpreted as being due to bicarbonate and bisulfate located in the mineral scaplite. Spectral data returned by the Mariner 6 and 7 spacecraft have been inerpreted as remaining consistent with the presence of hydrated carbonates. Additional, airborne thermal infrared spectra of Mars have been interpreted as implying the presence of carbonates, sulfates, and hydrates. Modeling of the thermal infrared data relied upon the optical constants of calcite anhydrite and a mixture of water in basalt because of their availability. The derived abundances of carbonate and sulfate were 1-3 percent and 10-15 percent by volume. However, the observed complexity and positions of the bands suggested other carbonate-, and sulfate-bearing species. We have already derived optical constants for hydrous and anhydrous silicates, and we are now applying these techniques to the derivation of the optical constants of hydrous carbonate and sulfate.

Roush, Ted L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA'S Water Resources Element Within the Applied Sciences Program

The NASA Applied Sciences Program works within NASA Earth sciences to leverage investment of satellite and information systems to increase the benefits to society through the widest practical use of NASA research results. Such observations provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of numerous water resources management activities. The primary goal of the Earth Science Applied Science Program is to improve future and current operational systems by infusing them with scientific knowledge of the Earth system gained through space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities. Water resources is one of eight elements in the Applied Sciences Program and it addresses concerns and decision making related to water quantity and water quality. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands requires using existing resources more efficiently. The potential crises and conflicts arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. but also in many parts of the world. In addition to water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products to address these critical issues.

Toll, David↗

NASA NTRS2005

Evidence of Urban-Induced Precipitation Variability in Arid Climate Regimes

Water is essential to life in the Earth system. The water cycle components that sustain life are becoming more scarce and polluted. The most recent (1999-2004) drought experienced in the southwestern United States is the seventh worst in the approximately 500-year proxy tree-ring record. As a result, many regions contemplated drought emergencies in which severe water restrictions are implemented. Though larger weather and climate processes likely control drought processes, there is increasing evidence that anthropogenic or human-related activities can significantly alter precipitation processes. Urbanization is an example of anthropogenic forcing. Recent studies continue to provide evidence that urban environments can modify or induce precipitation under a specific set of conditions. Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States and other parts of the world are rapidly developing and placing greater demands on the environmental system. In the past fifty years, Phoenix has expanded from a predominantly agricultural center to an urbanized region with extent 700 percent larger than its size in the middle of the twentieth century. Riyadh's population grew from about a half million people in 1972 to almost two million by 2000. Saudi Arabia experienced urbanization later than many other countries; in the early 1970s its urban-rural ratio was still about 1:3. By 1990 the ratio had reversed to about 3:l. In the mid-1970s Riyadh's population was increasing by about 10 percent a year. Irrigation also significantly increased between 1972 and 1990 southeast of Riyadh. The study employs a 108-year precipitation historical data record, global climate observing network observations and satellite data to identify possible anomalies in rainfall in and around two major arid urban areas, Phoenix, Arizona and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It provides statistically sound evidence that rainfall distribution and magnitude is statistically different in post-urban than in pre-urban (1900-1950) Phoenix. The study hypothesis that a complex interaction between the city landscape, irrigated lands, and nearby mountains have created preferred regions for rainfall development. The study also provides early evidence that rapidly urbanizing parts of the arid Middle East may also be experiencing different precipitation regimes in response to urbanization and irrigation.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modelflow Estimates of Stroke Volume Do Not Correlate With Doppler Ultrasound Estimates During Upright Posture

Orthostatic intolerance affects 60‐80% of astronauts returning from long‐duration missions, representing a significant risk to completing mission‐critical tasks. While likely multifactorial, a reduction in stroke volume (SV) represents one factor contributing to orthostatic intolerance during stand and head up tilt (HUT) tests. Current measures of SV during stand or HUT tests use Doppler ultrasound and require a trained operator and specialized equipment, restricting its use in the field. BeatScope (Finapres Medical Systems BV, The Netherlands) uses a modelflow algorithm to estimate SV from continuous blood pressure waveforms in supine subjects; however, evidence supporting the use of Modelflow to estimate SV in subjects completing stand or HUT tests remain scarce. Furthermore, because the blood pressure device is held extended at heart level during HUT tests, but allowed to rest at the side during stand tests, changes in the finger arterial pressure waveform resulting from arm positioning could alter modelflow estimated SV. The purpose of this project was to compare Doppler ultrasound and BeatScope estimations of SV to determine if BeatScope can be used during stand or HUT tests. Finger photoplethysmography was used to acquire arterial pressure waveforms corrected for hydrostatic finger‐to‐heart height using the Finometer (FM) and Portapres (PP) arterial pressure devices in 10 subjects (5 men and 5 women) during a stand test while simultaneous estimates of SV were collected using Doppler ultrasound. Measures were made after 5 minutes of supine rest and while subjects stood for 5 minutes. Next, SV estimates were reacquired while each arm was independently raised to heart level, a position similar to tilt testing. Supine SV estimates were not significantly different between all three devices (FM: 68+/-20, PP: 71+/-21, US: 73+/-21 ml/beat). Upon standing, the change in SV estimated by FM (‐18+/-8 ml) was not different from PP (‐21+/-12), but both were significantly less than US (‐37+/-16 ml, p<.05). Raising finger BP devices to heart level caused no significant change in SV measured with any of the devices (FM: 1.5+/-19, PP: 1.7+/-26, US: 0.5+/-6), although variability was 3‐6x greater as assessed by both blood pressure devices compared to US. Retrospective analysis of blood pressure data to assess SV in 11 supine subjects revealed significantly different estimates between methods (FM: 95+/-17, US: 75+/-32, p<.05), but the change in SV resulting from HUT was similar between methods (FM: ‐37+/-9, US: ‐40+/-18 ml). However, the correlation coefficient determined from pairs of SV estimated by US and FM was weak (r2=0.03). These data suggest Modelflow cannot be used in lieu of Doppler ultrasound to estimate SV during stand or HUT tests. Further investigation should focus on identifying factors contributing to differences between these measurement techniques in order to make use of a simple method for assessing beat‐by‐beat changes in SV during postural changes, especially during field testing.

Ferguson, Connor R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Extremes in Global Precipitation Products: How Reliable Are They?

Global gridded precipitation products have proven essential for many applications ranging from hydrological modeling and climate model validation to natural hazard risk assessment. They provide a global picture of how precipitation varies across time and space, specifically in regions where ground-based observations are scarce. While the application of global precipitation products has become widespread, there is limited knowledge on how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation—the key features in triggering flood hazards. Here, five global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR, and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to surface observations. The spatial variability of relatively high precipitation events (tail heaviness) and the resulting discrepancy among datasets in the predicted precipitation return levels were evaluated for the time period 1979–2017. The analysis shows that 1) these products do not provide a consistent representation of the behavior of extremes as quantified by the tail heaviness, 2) there is strong spatial variability in the tail index, 3) the spatial patterns of the tail heaviness generally match the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, and 4) the predicted return levels for 100 and 1000 years differ significantly among the gridded products. More generally, our findings reveal shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes and highlight that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.

Risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2003

Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Solution Methodology

The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. Thus, Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is a critical component of airport operations planning in general and surface operations planning in particular. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, may be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. Generating optimal runway operations plans was approached in with a 'one-stage' optimization routine that considered all the desired objectives and constraints, and the characteristics of each aircraft (weight class, destination, Air Traffic Control (ATC) constraints) at the same time. Since, however, at any given point in time, there is less uncertainty in the predicted demand for departure resources in terms of weight class than in terms of specific aircraft, the ROP problem can be parsed into two stages. In the context of the Departure Planner (OP) research project, this paper introduces Runway Operations Planning (ROP) as part of the wider Surface Operations Optimization (SOO) and describes a proposed 'two stage' heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. Focus is specifically given on including runway crossings in the planning process of runway operations. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runwy crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program. Preliminary results from the algorithm implementation on real-world traffic data are included.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis↗