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92 records · Page 6
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Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption phase on January 15, 2022, that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere and into the stratosphere. The stratospheric volcanic plume included aerosol precursor gases such as SO2 and H2S as well as anomalously high water vapor concentrations due to the submarine oceanic origin. With these atmospheric constituents, the sulfuric gases and water vapor formed sulfate (SO4) particles via gas-to-particle reactions and these aerosols likely increased in size due to hygroscopic growth within anomalously humid regions. Strong easterlies and gravity waves propagated the volcanic impacts throughout the stratosphere. Orbital and suborbital passive sensor retrievals detected changes in the aerosol and trace gas characteristics within the atmospheric column for cloud-free regions over the southern hemisphere. While the CALIPSO lidar can detect aerosol layers in the stratosphere, passive sensors such as MODIS retrieved the total column aerosol abundance and characteristics. Previous studies used manual tracking methods to determine volcanic plume positions and compared them to ground observations. In this study, we examine the machine learning (ML) approaches including segmentation, object detection, and object tracking to identify and track aerosol and trace gas plumes using orbital and suborbital sensor data. This ML implementation strives to provide a more systematic approach to separate total column effects from those of the stratosphere. Similar ML tracking may be useful for stratospheric impact events observed historically by CALIPSO and in the future with EarthCare and the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) lidar-capable missions.

Rhys Leahy↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): Quantifying Model Sensitivity to Emission Characteristics

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of −0.35 W m −2 ), SO 2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

Emissions Model Intercomparison Project↗