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DOE OSTI2023

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Success Path Method: Introduction to the Success Path Method Software Tool©

As part of its commitment to advancing safety and reliability assessment methodologies, Argonne National Laboratory pioneered the use of an evaluation method called the Success Path Method (SPM) to improve risk management for offshore oil and gas operations. The development of the SPM at Argonne has been driven by the need to improve existing risk assessment methodologies by focusing on the steps necessary for success rather than failure modes alone. This is particularly important for industrial environments like offshore facilities that perform multiple functions under a continuously evolving set of operational conditions – such as water depth and temperature, currents, and weather conditions. In these dynamic environments, the traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) approach is far too complex as it focuses on what can go wrong – which comprises an infinite failure space that must be fully explored and understood. By shifting the focus to a finite space of success paths, the SPM enables operators and decision makers to prioritize a manageable number of steps that must go right to ensure success. Building on its five decades of experience in safety assessments for the nuclear industry, Argonne made major adaptations to existing risk assessment methods utilizing features similar to fault trees that are traditionally used in PRA to map all pathways in which the system can malfunction. In contrast, SPM identifies the components and processes that must function correctly to achieve specific outcomes – such as preventing the uncontrolled release of hydrocarbons during drilling operations. The SPM framework integrates equipment, procedures, software, processes, and human actions to ensure that physical barriers meet critical safety functions in dynamic operational conditions. This approach helps identify failure modes and improve operational risk management by narrowing the focus to key success elements, which in turn reduces uncertainty and helps users understand, manage, and respond to failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Treatment of uncertainties for security-related design aspects of advanced reactors when using a risk-informed licensing approach

Sabotage of nuclear plants and theft of special nuclear material are different from many other issues potentially affecting public health and safety, and some of those differences drive the content of the present report. A high-level indication of these differences is provided in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Safety Goal Policy. Promulgated in the mid-1980’s, when it had become reasonably clear that risk analysis had improved to the point where it was possible to understand the risks associated with plant operation, the Safety Goal Policy articulates qualitative safety goals and quantitative health objectives that are meant to guide regulatory and risk management activities, with the following key exceptions noted in the original policy statement: The possible effects of sabotage or diversion of nuclear material are also not presently included in the safety goals. At present there is no basis on which to provide a measure of risk on these matters. It is the Commission’s intention that everything that is needed will be done to keep these types of risks at their present very low level; and it is the Commission’s expectation that efforts on this point will continue to be successful. With these exceptions, it is the Commission’s intent that the risks from all the various initiating mechanisms be considered to the best of the capability of current evaluation techniques. The present report discusses extensions of classical risk management to address some of the special issues that arise in the context of security. Although the present emphasis is on physical security, some attention will be paid to cyber security. A particular focus of the report is on quantitative framework to manage and address uncertainties. This framework is demonstrated via a couple of hypothetical examples.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achieving Cyber-Resilience for Power Systems using a Learning, Model-Assisted Blockchain Framework

The secure integration and management of distributed energy resources (DER) and power aggregators in the electric grid requires secure communications and a physics-aware Command and Control (C2) strategy. A Blockchain (BC)-based overlay network was developed to provide a security layer for the existing power grid network that mitigates risks in current and legacy network and C2 protocols. By integrating a Model-Assisted Machine Learning (MAML) framework with a Secure Blockchain Overlay Network (SBON) a defense-in-depth strategy was achieved. In our approach, the MAML framework leveraged a smart contract framework to gather network data and learn the dynamics of DER to develop detection strategies for attacks targeting sensors and actuators used by DER. The MAML framework learned dynamical systems models for individual DERs to detect sensor attacks. For DER we utilized a Digital Twin (DT) to accelerate the learning process for a model resistant to stealthy attacks. The project created DT for PV inverters and BESS. The DTs were coupled with a model-assisted, data-driven learning of DER behavior. Specifically, we evaluated architectures for model-based learning with model-free fine-tuning. Additionally, differential privacy techniques were used to obfuscate data, while still allowing the computation of attack detection results based on obfuscated data. The SBON developed leverages a private permissioned blockchain network orchestrated with the Hyperledger Fabric framework. To connect the cyber world, which orchestrates the blockchain fabric, and the physical world where the power network resides, we developed a system implementation to enable the secure interaction of the physical world and the abstracted blockchain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Cybersecurity with System Operations and Restoration

This presentation covers the interaction of the discipline of system operations with the discipline of cybersecurity. First is discussion of a number of fundamental concepts for system operators - organizational division of responsibilities, human and machine cooperation, goals, and priorities. The next section covers the importance of cybersecurity for a system operator organization and explains different risk management approaches based on the consequence and frequency of events. Finally the role of system operators in the security of the grid categorized by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework is discussed to present recommendations and ideas for future work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-averse optimization for resilience enhancement of complex engineering systems under uncertainties

With the growth of complexity and extent, large scale interconnected network systems, e.g., transportation networks or infrastructure networks, become more vulnerable to external disturbances. Hence, managing potential disruptive events during the design, operating, and recovery phase of an engineered system and therefore improving the system’s resilience is an important yet challenging task. Here, to ensure system resilience after the occurrence of failure events, this study proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) based restoration framework using heterogeneous dispatchable agents. The scenario-based stochastic optimization (SO) technique is adopted to deal with the inherent uncertainties imposed on the recovery process from nature. Moreover, different from conventional SO using deterministic equivalent formulations, the CVaR risk measure is implemented for this study because of the temporal sparsity of the decision making in applications such as the recovery from extreme events. The resulting restoration framework involves a large-scale MILP problem and thus an adequate decomposition technique i.e. modified Lagrangian dual decomposition, is also employed to achieve tractable computational complexity. Case study results based on the IEEE 37-bus test feeder demonstrate the benefits of using the proposed framework for resilience improvement as well as the advantages of adopting SO formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Informing Cybersecurity Decisions With the Value-at-Risk Framework

Security at every site is critical to making hydropower a strong contributor to the country's grid, but with ongoing development and expanding capabilities, the diversity of the existing hydropower fleet makes across-the-board investment decisions difficult. The threat of cyberattacks naturally increases as the interconnection of Information Technology and Operational Technology networks broadens. Hydropower plants require custom analyses that are specific to the unique challenges and characteristics of any given facility. Facilities, however, often do not have the necessary resources for managers to make informed decisions on investments based on assessed capabilities and risks.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

DOE OSTI2023

Informing Cybersecurity Decisions With the Value-at-Risk Framework

cybersecurity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Securing Digital Energy Infrastructure: Procurement, Contracting, and Supply Chain Risk Management Guidance

Recognizing the scale of this industry challenge, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Deployment Office (GDO) and Cybersecurity Energy Security & Emergency Response office have launched a multi-year BESS supply chain security initiative to identify consequence-driven approaches to addressing BESS supply chain security and provide resources to support prioritization of supply chain security efforts associated with the procurement of BESS equipment and services. This guide is one element of the supporting resources to be provided and sets forth a framework and guidance for procurement bidding, selection, risk analysis, and agreements stakeholders can implement to mitigate cybersecurity risks across the entirety of battery system component ecosystem, including the interconnected software and hardware required for control and monitoring BESSs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Improvements on SNS and HFIR Instrument Data Reduction Workflows Using Mantid

Performance of data reduction workflows at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is mainly determined by the time spent loading raw measurement events stored in large and sparse datasets. This paper describes: (1) our long-term view to leverage SNS and HFIR data management needs with our experience at ORNL’s world-class high performance computing (HPC) facilities, and (2) our short-term efforts to speed up current workflows using Mantid, a data analysis and reduction community framework used across several neutron scattering facilities. We show that minimally invasive short-term improvements in metadata management have a moderate impact in speeding up current production workflows. We propose a more disruptive domain-specific solution: the No Cost Input Output (NCIO) framework, we provide an overview, the risks and challenges in NCIO’s adoption by HFIR and SNS stakeholders.

Godoy, William↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering for Protecting BESS

This white paper synthesizes an array of crucial grid services provided by BESS technology, assesses its architecture and communications, and presents a case study for analysis against the principles introduced by Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). Furthermore, in walking through the analysis, this paper presents a framework to evaluate risks and solutions when considering BESS components. Asset owners and buyers could perform this analysis to assess their BESS product implementations, alternative inverter-based resources (IBR), and energy management systems (EMS). Battery systems fulfill various roles contingent on the unique market demands and the specific challenges presented by regional grid infrastructures. These roles also vary due to the differing utility models for ownership and operation, which are adapted to meet regional and local capabilities and requirements. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for adversaries to exploit knowledge of battery operational patterns to orchestrate decisive attacks. However, the security of operational data for these systems may not be the primary vulnerability, as much of this information is already well-understood within the community. Applying a modest degree of subject matter expertise can often yield valuable predictions regarding how a battery will respond under certain conditions, such as grid emergencies, high or low-temperature days, Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events, and outages. The operational characteristics of batteries are well-documented, and their capabilities, including the risks associated with misoperation and the resulting consequences, are published and understood within the industry. CIE practices represent the next step in gaining functional assurance and providing an acceptable level of risk, regardless of whether a battery vendor can support a trusted and validated supply chain. While this issue has exacerbated supply chain challenges, it is not an isolated condition. This foreign supply route is the primary source of BESS for the U.S. market. Significant efforts are underway through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to change that. Still, strategic short-term operational mitigations are needed to ensure the security of our operational technology (OT) systems, which are enhanced by instilling trust and are separate from vendors implementing CIE principles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Framework to Design Consumer-Centric Operational Strategies for Resilience Enhancement

Extreme temperature-related events like heat waves or cold snaps can significantly stress the power distribution grid as electricity demand spikes leading to brownouts or blackouts if not managed properly. In addition, such extreme events can exacerbate inequity, with vulnerable populations (for example, houses with poor insulation, located in non-critical zones, and lack of local resources) at greater risk. There is a growing deployment of distribution systems automation technologies such as advanced metering infrastructure, sensors, and automated control systems to enhance the visibility of the entire distribution grid while meeting resilience objectives. Here, this paper proposes a framework for investigating how automation can improve the distribution system's resilience and ensure customers' health and safety during such extremes. The proposed framework's efficacy will be demonstrated for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri with varying levels of distribution automation technologies such as feeder isolation using smart switches, remote outage signals using advanced meters, and comfort-aware outage using advanced analytics and communication. Simulation results show that an outage strategy involving advanced grid technology and communication can reduce the occupant exposure to severe cold by 93% and, simultaneously, reduce expected energy not served by 73.2% when compared against feeder isolation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗