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At least 109 records · Page 6

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

RLC4CLR (Reinforcement Learning Controller for Critical Load Restoration Problems)

RLC4CLR demonstrates using a reinforcement learning controller (RLC) to solve a critical load restoration (CLR) problem, which improves the grid resilience after a substation outage event. RLC4CLR consists of two parts. (1) RL environment: This environment encapsulates the CLR problem to be solved and provides interfacing functions to follow the standard OpenAI Gym format. A power system simulator, i.e., OpenDSS, is included to provide the power flow solution. Controller inputs and outputs (RL state and action) as well as the reward are defined in this environment as well. In summary, the RL environment is the problem formulation from which the RL agent can learn. (2) RL training script: The training script enables the RL agent to learn its control policy by interacting with the RL environment. For RL training, an open-sourced RL library, i.e., RLlib, is leveraged which is based on a distributed computing framework (Ray). The training script is designed to be able to be run on both local machine or the NREL HPC system. Other components of RLC4CLR include input data, e.g., grid model (standard IEEE test feeders), and other files used for results analysis.

Zhang, Xiangyu↗

Individual and Collective Strategies to Limit the Impacts of Large Power Outages of Long Duration

As modern society becomes ever more dependent on the availability of electric power, the costs that could arise from individual and social vulnerability to large outages of long duration (LLD-outages) increases. During such an outage, even a small amount of power would be very valuable. Here, this article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical New England community during a large electric power outage of long duration. We develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. We find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). However, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if local distribution system lines are destroyed, only individual back-up systems could provide contingency power until those lines are repaired. Costs might be reduced if more robust distributed generation were employed that could be operated continuously with the ability to sell power back to the grid. Our cost-effectiveness analysis only assesses what could be done, developing estimates of preparedness cost. A decision about what should be done would require additional input from a range of stakeholders as well as some form of analytical deliberative process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Survey and Gap Prioritization of U.S. Electric Vehicle Charge Management Deployments

The goal of this study was to survey and characterize the scope of current technical and programmatic knowledge pertaining to EV charge management technologies and practices in the US and relevant international jurisdictions. This characterization of existing field demonstrations and knowledge derived were used to determine gaps in the SCM demonstration landscape. Addressing these gaps through research and demonstration could increase confidence in the U.S. that load management and EV charge control could achieve overarching societal benefits. A survey of charge management deployments and input from stakeholders was completed to determine the state-of-the-art of smart charge management (SCM) where SCM is defined as controlling the amount of power exchanged between chargers and EVs to meet customers' charging needs while also responding to external power demand or pricing signals to provide load management, resilience, or other benefits to the customer and electric grid. The survey was the basis of the gap analysis in this report and determines which areas are well understood, with high confidence, and which areas need further investigation. Existing examples of EV charge management are characterized here to determine aspects that are ready for widespread deployment and have been demonstrated in the field. These include demonstration studies, pilots, programs, and EV-specific tariffs. In all, 110 examples of charge management were characterized. The data sources were public literature and utility filings as well as targeted interviews. In addition, 43 interviews with stakeholders were conducted with a consistent set of questions used in each interview. This study prioritized gaps in demonstrated SCM capabilities based on 1) Urgency of the particular use-case to offset traditional grid assets, 2) Impact, extensibility, and scaling of results across the entire spectrum of 3000+ utility service territories including projected technical and market potential for a given grid service, and 3) Value of federal funding in addressing the gap, including potential to leverage and/or add scope to existing field demonstrations funded by other non-federal funding mechanisms.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Universal Passive Synchronization Method for Grid-Forming Inverters Without Mode Transition

Power systems are transforming with increasing levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This transformation requires critical roles of grid-forming (GFM) inverters replacing synchronous generators for bulk power system stabilization and ancillary services, also allowing flexible power system operation, such as microgrid that is operated by multiple GFM IBRs to achieve system resilience against contingencies. To realize the resilient power systems allowing flexible in-and-out operation of GFM IBRs potentially programmed with different primary controls, a synchronization method universally applicable, i.e., independent of control types, would be beneficial to ease the integration process, but it has not been actively studied. To fill the gap, this paper proposes a universal synchronization method that achieves a passive synchronization to enable a smooth transition in a grid with off-nominal system parameters, i.e., voltage and frequency. The logic proposed requires no modification on the primary control, thus applicable to any type of GFMs with a voltage reference input. To validate the concept, a simulation of an IEEE 13-bus benchmark system modified with 3 GFM inverters is presented. It simulates an inverter-driven black start scenario in which GFM inverters autonomously turn on and connect to the grid under heavy loading, using the synchronization logic. The case study demonstrates that GFM inverters can tune their voltage reference to smoothly synchronize without severe transients, and contribute to a seamless black start of the grid under unbalanced load conditions. Two GFM methods - Droop and dispatchable virtual oscillator control - are used for the demo to validate feasibility and interoperability of the passive synchronization.

black start↗

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗

Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Ripple-Type Control for Enhancing Resilience of Networked Physical Systems

Distributed control agents have been advocated as an effective means for improving the resiliency of our physical infrastructures under unexpected events. Purely local control has been shown to be insufficient, centralized optimal resource allocation approaches can be slow. In this context, we put forth a hybrid low-communication saturation-driven protocol for the coordination of control agents that are distributed over a physical system and are allowed to communicate with peers over a “hotline” communication network. According to this protocol, agents act on local readings unless their control resources have been depleted, in which case they send a beacon for assistance to peer agents. Our ripple-type scheme triggers communication locally only for the agents with saturated resources and it is proved to converge. Moreover, under a monotonicity assumption on the underlying physical law coupling control outputs to inputs, the devised control is proved to converge to a configuration satisfying safe operational constraints. The assumption is shown to hold for voltage control in electric power systems and pressure control in water distribution networks. Numerical tests corroborate the efficacy of the novel scheme.

distributed control↗

REopt Lite User Manual

REopt Lite evaluates the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics, wind, combined heat and power, and electric and thermal storage at commercial and small industrial sites. It allows building owners to identify the system sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the site’s life cycle cost of energy. REopt Lite also estimates the amount of time on-site generation and storage can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage and allows the user the choice of optimizing for energy resilience. It is primarily used to inform project development decisions and to support research on the factors that drive project feasibility for market development and policy analysis. It is available through a web interface, application programing interface, and open-source code. This user manual provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ripple-Type Control for Enhancing Resilience of Networked Physical Systems: Preprint

Distributed control agents have been advocated as an effective means for improving the resiliency of our physical in-frastructures under unexpected events. While purely local control has been shown to be insufficient, centralized optimal resource allocation approaches can be slow. In this context, we put forth a hybrid low-communication saturation-driven protocol for the coordination of control agents that are distributed over a physicalsystem and are allowed to communicate with peers over a 'hot-line' communication network. According to this protocol, agents act upon on local readings unless their control resources have been depleted, in which case they send a beacon for assistance to peer agents. Our ripple-type scheme triggers communication locally only for the agents with saturated resources, and is proved to converge. Moreover, under a monotonicity assumption on the underlying physical law coupling control outputs to inputs, the devised control is proved to converge to a configuration satisfying safe operational constraints. The assumption is shown to hold for voltage control in electric power systems and pressure control in water distribution networks. Numerical tests on both networks corroborate the efficacy of the novel scheme.

distributed control↗

naturf: a package for generating urban parameters for numerical weather modeling

The Neighborhood Adaptive Tissues for Urban Resilience Futures tool (NATURF) is a Python workflow that generates files readable by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. NATURF uses geopandas and hamilton to calculate 132 building parameters from shapefiles with building footprint and height information. These parameters can be collected and used in many formats, and the primary output is a binary file configured for input to WRF. This workflow is a flexible adaptation of the National/World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT/WUDAPT) that can be used with any study area at any spatial resolution. The climate modeling community and urban planners can identify the effects of building/neighborhood morphology on the microclimate using the urban parameters and WRF-readable files produced by NATURF. More information on the urban parameters calculated can be found in the documentation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Behavioral resilience via dynamic circuit firing homeostasis

Homeostatic regulation ensures stable neural circuit output under changing conditions. We find that in Drosophila larvae, either presynaptic weakening due to perturbation of transmitter release or postsynaptic weakening due to perturbation of glutamate receptors at synapses between motor neuron (MN) and muscle has little impact on locomotion, suggesting a nonsynaptic compensatory mechanism. In vivo imaging shows that five different forms of synaptic weakening increase the duration of activity bouts in type I MNs. Strikingly, this compensation is input selective: occurring only in the tonic type Ib MN, not the phasic type Is MN that innervates the same muscle. Moreover, an inhibitory class of central pre-MNs that innervates the tonic—but not phasic—input decreases in activity. The adjustment in activity occurs remarkably quickly: within minutes of synapse perturbation. We propose that MN firing is dynamically regulated by two coordinated mechanisms: a cell-autonomous adjustment of MN excitability and a circuit adjustment of inhibitory central drive. The input selectivity of this process suggests homeostatic adjustment to maintain tonic drive but hold constant the phasic drive that organizes locomotory wave patterns.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Packaged Combined Heat and Power Technology Overview and Market Profile

Combined heat and power (CHP), sometimes referred to as cogeneration, is an efficient and clean approach to generating electric power and useful thermal energy onsite from a single fuel source, offering reliable and affordable energy services to businesses and institutions. Furthermore, CHP provides a cost effective opportunity to improve the environmental footprint and resilience of industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. CHP equipment can be custom-engineered or installed as a predesigned and assembled package. A packaged CHP system is a standardized, pre-engineered system that includes all equipment, piping, wiring, and ancillary components to deliver electricity and thermal energy to a host facility with minimal onsite engineering and design time. Packaged CHP systems can be shipped as single or multiple modules with standard interconnections (e.g., fuel; electrical; thermal—hot water, steam, and/or chilled water), which simplifies installation and reduces the costs associated with the project. Most containerized or single packaged CHP system offerings range from 10 kW to 3 MW in capacity. Packaged CHP systems are extending the operating, efficiency, and emissions benefits of CHP to nontraditional markets in commercial, institutional, multifamily, light manufacturing, government, and military applications. These markets tend to be served by smaller systems (less than 5 MW) that are conducive to pre-engineered packaging and/or modularization. Many of these sectors have limited CHP experience and technical resources to adequately evaluate, install, and maintain onsite CHP systems. The introduction of packaged CHP offerings from experienced CHP Packagers and Solution Providers has accelerated CHP adoption, lowered energy costs, reduced emissions, and strengthened energy resilience in these sectors. In 2019, the US Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Packaged CHP eCatalog to promote increased acceptance of efficient, cost-effective CHP in these applications. The Packaged CHP eCatalog is a web-based, searchable platform that hosts DOE-recognized packaged CHP systems with features designed to reduce economic and performance risks for designers, developers, owners, and facility operators interested in installing CHP. DOE established the Packaged CHP Accelerator at the same time to help launch and publicize the eCatalog, and to validate project performance, cost, and installation time of CHP packages across a variety of applications. Accelerator efforts documented installed cost reductions and installation time reductions of more than 20% for packaged CHP systems over 100 kW compared with custom-engineered systems. The Packaged CHP Accelerator and eCatalog established a peer-to-peer network connecting public and private sector partners including utilities, state energy offices, and energy efficiency program administrators interested in promoting cost-effective, efficient CHP systems, Packagers, and Solution Providers. Feedback from these partners, along with input from DOE’s CHP Technical Assistance Partnerships (CHP TAPs), was critical in understanding the current market for packaged CHP technologies, stimulating investment in these technologies, and guiding future directions for packaged CHP systems and their applications. This report provides background on packaged CHP systems, an overview of their benefits, a profile of current packaged CHP installations, and a summary of future market trends; this report is intended for facility owners, project developers, engineers, policymakers, and other stakeholders looking to increase the adoption of efficient, flexible, and resilient packaged CHP systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of the bioconversion potential of minimally processed seaweed by halophilic yeasts

Building an advanced economy using biomanufacturing requires robust sources of carbon for converting into chemicals and products. Macroalgae hold significant potential due to their fast growth rates, lack of freshwater usage, and lack of land usage. To be used as a common feedstock, there are two primary challenges that need to be addressed: 1) unusual chemical composition and 2) high salinity. A solution to both issues is to use a resilient, salt-loving organism with a broad consumption profile for the conversion of macroalgae. Here we evaluate the ability of the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides to grow in wild macroalgae-derived feedstocks and identify a conversion process that is functional for two species of Sargassum collected from the Caribbean using R. toruloides that does not require washing of the input seaweed material. Together this demonstrates a future avenue of work that minimizes freshwater usage for incorporating macroalgae as a biomanufacturing carbon source.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense (Final)

In the world of ever-advancing technology, Autonomous Systems (AS) find extensive application, bolstering functionalities of critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants. These systems, however, are increasingly becoming a target for nefarious activities, namely through inference attacks, trojan attacks, and adversarial reprogramming. This paper delves into a comprehensive exploration of machine learning (ML)-driven autonomous control systems within advanced nuclear reactor designs, revealing the vulnerabilities and proposing strategies for defense against potential cyber-attacks. Advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)- based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber-physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems. As global reliance on generation III reactors begins to be critically assessed, the evolution towards advanced reactor systems utilizing digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) becomes not merely preferable, but essential. The integration of semi and fully autonomous control systems (ACS), powered by digital I&C and machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies, emerges as a potent strategy to mitigate operations and maintenance costs, thereby enhancing the economic feasibility of novel reactor designs. However, with a staggering 500% and 380% increase in cyber-attacks reported against the energy sector by the United States Department of Energy (DoE) and the European Union respectively, a surge in cyber vulnerabilities specifically targeting the nuclear industry has been 2 markedly observed. Notable incidents, such as the W32.Ramnit spyware infiltration at the Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Germany and the Dtrack spyware intrusion at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India, while not directly compromising core industrial control systems (ICS), underscore a compelling necessity to fortify cybersecurity protocols in safeguarding reactor systems against increasingly adept digital adversaries. In light of this, our investigation extends beyond conventional cybersecurity parameters, diving into the intricate web of potential vulnerabilities woven into ML-based DTs and ACS in advanced reactor systems. A crafted cyber-physical testbed and preliminary ACS were devised to act as a mirror, reflecting potential configurations of advanced reactor control designs. Moreover, this study is intertwined with a scrutinization of ML models, developed either through conventional, manually tuned methodologies or via automated means through AutoML, probing into their cyber-risk profiles within operational technology (OT) environments. Expanding on this, two distinct ACS blueprints were forged – one navigating through the corridors of traditional ML and the other traversing the path of AutoML – in an effort to holistically encapsulate the considerations pivotal to ML-based DT control system design. Employing the SANS Institute Industrial Control System (ICS) Kill Chain and the MITRE ATT&CK Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) framework, a structured analysis was conducted, launching three targeted attacks against the training dataset, real-time dataset, and ML models, therein dissecting the potential cyber-attack implications against both ML frameworks within an ACS milieu. It is essential to note that three distinct categories of attacks were conducted against both ACS configurations, each encompassing three distinct ML-based DTs, cumulating in a total of 18 varied attacks. This exploration extends into the realms of Autonomous System Inference, Trojan, and Adversarial Reprogramming Attack and Defense, unraveling vulnerabilities, and opportunities for fortified defenses against such intrusions, particularly where ML-driven technologies, and by extension, ACS, are deployed. Final recommendations, articulated through a lens of security, safeguard, and implementation considerations, are presented for both traditional and AutoML models, anchoring upon the existing knowledge landscape and ML-based DT modeling for ACS, and are offered as a beacon to guide the nuclear industry through the intricate cybersecurity challenges that lie ahead.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗