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DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Finding of Adverse Effect and Proposed Mitigation for the Demolition of Building 23-530, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-530 in Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15270), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-530, a dormitory called Freedom Hall, was constructed in Mercury in 1982 and served as a support facility for nuclear testing for the last decade of the Cold War. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for their importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Building 23-530 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al. 2018) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-530 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category II contributing element. Category II properties are those that have several representatives in the MHD but may possess different engineering or architectural characteristics that distinguish them from other classes of similar elements. Building 23-530 is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-530 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15270) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The dormitory is considered contributing to the significance of the district both for its historic importance in relation to nuclear testing under Criterion A and as a part of the distinctive design and construction of the district under Criterion C. This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Analysis of High Opportunity Geothermal Leasing Areas on BLM and USFS Lands

This analysis, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), models potential geothermal deployment on BLM and USFS land for the years 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2050 under various scenarios using the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. This report identifies potential future high opportunity geothermal leasing areas (i.e., Best, Middle, and Least identified opportunities) based on available data for geothermal resource potential, natural resource conflicts, and transmission access. In addition, this analysis considers the impacts of the Energy Policy Act of 2005's (EPAct 2005's) default competitive leasing provisions, specifically the impact this may have had on geothermal resource discovery outside of known geothermal resource areas.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigation for Removal of Building 01-103 in the Area 1 Subdock, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

Building 01-103, the Drill Bit Repair Building was originally recorded as SHPO Resource No. B18848 in 2020 during an architectural survey of the Area 1 Subdock (Collins et al. 2022). It was recommended individually eligible for listing in the NRHP under Criteria A and C and contributing to the significance of the Area 1 Subdock Historic District. The SHPO concurred with these determinations in a letter dated April 29, 2022 (Reed 2022). The Drill Bit Repair Building retains all seven aspects of integrity. The location, materials, workmanship, feeling, and association have not changed since its original construction. The design was modified slightly in 1996 with the addition of a removable and non-destructive chain-link fence. Nearby buildings 01-101 and 01-102 were removed (Collins and Menocal 2020) but the other buildings and storage yards remain. Therefore, the integrity of setting has been changed, but not to the degree that the building no longer conveys its significance (see Figures 4 and 5 for comparison). Building 01-103 was constructed in 1985 to coincide with the relocation of the Area 3 Subdock to Area 1. The design for the new Subdock provided a centralized cluster of buildings surrounded by two large storage yards. The buildings included administrative and engineering office space, warehouses, a radiograph building, and Building 01-103 as the drill bit maintenance and repair building, among others. The Drill Bit Repair Building was critical to the success of underground nuclear testing and is eligible under Criterion A for its contribution to broad patterns of history by maintaining specially designed equipment for underground nuclear testing at the NNSS. It is also eligible under Criterion C as it is the only recorded example of a facility built specifically for the maintenance of big-hole drill bits on the NNSS. As it retains both significance and integrity, it remains individually eligible under Criteria A and C. In addition to its individual significance, the Drill Bit Repair Building also contributes to the significance of the Area 1 Subdock Historic District as a representative of a big-hole drilling support facility necessary for underground nuclear testing. The building and the equipment therein were designed specifically for testing at the NNSS, where much of the early technology and methods for big-hole drilling were developed. Its removal will result in not only the demolition of a contributing element but also a change in the physical features of the district’s setting that contribute to its historic significance. The change in setting will diminish the district’s integrity. However, the district still contains numerous examples of other buildings constructed for the purpose of supporting big-hole drilling and remains eligible under Criteria A and C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mitigation for Removal of Building 01-202681 in the Main Storage Yard of the Area 1 Subdock, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The Main Storage Yard was originally recorded as SHPO Resource No. S2772 in 2020 during an architectural survey of the Area 1 Subdock (Collins et al. 2022). It was recommended individually eligible for listing in the NRHP under Criteria A and C and as contributing to the significance of the potential Area 1 Subdock Historic District. The SHPO concurred with these determinations in a letter dated April 29, 2022 (Reed). The Main Storage Yard retains all seven aspects of integrity. The location, design, materials, workmanship, feeling, and association have not changed since the original construction. Since the purpose of the yard is to maintain storage equipment that is actively being used, the design and feeling will change each time equipment is moved. Such actions reinforce the integrity of design and feeling. Buildings 01-101 and 01-102 were removed (Collins and Menocal 2020), but the other buildings and storage yard remain. Therefore, the setting has been changed, but not to the degree that the Main Storage Yard no longer conveys its significance (see Figures 4 and 5 for comparison). The Main Storage Yard was designed to facilitate the relocation of the Area 3 Subdock to Area 1 in 1985. The design for the overall Subdock provided a centralized cluster of buildings surrounded by two large storage yards. While the North Storage Yard largely serves as overflow storage, the Main Storage Yard holds the majority of drill rigs and drilling equipment needed to support big hole drilling. The Main Storage Yard and its contents were essential elements of the nuclear testing drilling program on the NNSS thus making it eligible for the NRHP under Criterion A for its contribution to broad patterns of history by storing specially designed equipment for underground nuclear testing at the NNSS. It is also eligible under Criterion C as it is an engineered landscape that now serves as an open-air repository of drilling technology and nuclear testing. In addition to its individual significance, the Main Storage Yard also contributes to the significance of the Area 1 Subdock Historic District as it showcases a variety of big-hole drilling equipment, support facilities, and warehouses that were specially designed for nuclear testing at the NNSS. Despite the demolition of two contributing elements to date, the district still contains numerous examples of other facilities with the purpose of supporting big-hole drilling; therefore, the district still remains eligible under Criteria A and C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation for roof alterations to building 06-cp-65 at the area 6 control point, nevada national security site, nye county, nevada

Building 06-CP-65 has been determined to be a contributing element to the Area 6 Control Point Historic District (O’Neill et al. 2021; Reed 2022). It contributes to the significance of the historic district under Criterion A as one of the principal buildings that supported timing and firing operations for nuclear testing on the NNSS from 1966 to 1992. As such, the building served as a major warehouse with office space within the district. It was used by both REECo, a long-time general contractor at the NNSS, as well as EG&G, which provided technical support to the national laboratories and the DOD. The building served as an important staging area and electrical power supply point for the NNSS diagnostic trailer fleet and its unique location immediately along Mercury Highway allowed easy accessibility to the forward areas of the NNSS. The building also contributes to the historic district under Criterion C as it is one of the large, unadorned, precast concrete buildings at the Control Point. These types of buildings were the prominent elements of the compound that convey the district’s overall utilitarian, military-industrial character. Building 06-CP-65 retains all aspects of integrity to a high degree and easily conveys its significance as a warehouse that supported Control Point operations. Building 06-CP-65 is not recommended eligible for listing in the NRHP as an individual resource. While it served an important support function as part of the Control Point Historic District, an archival and literature review did not reveal information linking it to any specific test, series of tests, programs, or for any specific role on the NNSS other than as a warehouse (Criterion A). It has no direct association with any important individual (Criterion B). It also is not architecturally significant in its own right beyond reflecting the overall aesthetic of the Control Point Historic District (Criterion C), and it does not have potential to yield information important to the history of nuclear testing beyond what can be learned from historic texts, drawings, and other documents (Criterion D).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory Investigations of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in an Entraining, Turbulent Environment (Final Technical Report)

The effects that aerosol particles have on clouds in Earth’s atmosphere and the role that clouds play in determining the fate of aerosol particles play a crucial role in determining the human experience on this planet. These interwoven interactions can determine whether it rains or snows, is comfortable, hot or cold, or whether the cloud you gaze at in the sky looks like a tiger or a lump of porridge. How clouds mix with the air surrounding them, a process known as entrainment, further affects these processes. We conducted laboratory experiments of aerosol-cloud interactions in a setting in which we can measure the effects of entrainment – the first laboratory experiments since the pioneering work of Latham and Reed in 1977. We measured the effects of entrainment on aerosol-cloud interactions in the Pi Chamber and also used a state-of-the-art large eddy simulation (LES) to investigate processes in fine detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation for the Demolition of Dormitory Buildings 12-32, 12-34, 12-35, and 12-37 in the Area 12 Camp Historic District, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The purpose of this letter report is to document the mitigation of adverse effects of a proposed undertaking in compliance with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement DE-GM58-22NA25554 Among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the NNSS PA. The proposed undertaking would demolish Buildings 12-32 (State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B18291), 12-34 (SHPO Resource No. B18292), 12-35 (SHPO Resource No. B18293), and 12-37 (SHPO Resource No. B18294) in the Area 12 Camp Historic District (SHPO Resource No. D372) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The Area 12 Camp Historic District has been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A and C (Reed 2021; Reno et al. 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for superconducting magnets application (2023 Italian Summer Students program at FNAL Final Report)

This report documents the work I conducted during my internship as part of the Italian Summer Students program at the Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL). Throughout my internship, I was stationed in the Technical Division within the Fermilab laboratory, where I was under the guidance of Emanuela Barzi and co-supervised by Reed Teyber from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The aim of the project is the study and characterization of quench antenna signals in order gain understanding on the mechanical and electromagnetic phenomena happening inside superconductive magnets. The results presented here identify some potential areas of investigation and potential directions for improving the construction of magnetic superconductors, particularly within the framework of the CCT subscale program at LBNL.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigation documentation for the removal of hazardous materials from the engine installation vehicle and manned control car area 25, Nevada national security site, NYE county, Nevada

The purpose of this letter report is to document the mitigation of adverse effects of a proposed undertaking that would remove hazardous materials from the Engine Installation Vehicle (EIV) in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNNSS) in compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and the terms of the 2024 Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning the Protection of Historic Properties on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the NNSS PA. The EIV (State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. S3057) has been determined individually eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) under Criteria A and C and as a contributing element to the Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) Historic District, which is eligible for the NRHP under all four Significance Criteria (Reno et al. 2023; Reed 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Five draft genome assemblies from Bacillaceae isolated from a degraded wetland environment

Abstract We isolated 5 Bacillaceae from a degraded wetland environment and sequenced their genomes using Illumina NextSeq. Here, we report draft genome sequences of Bacillus velezensus-SC119, Priestia megaterium-SC120, Bacillus zhangzhouensis-SC123, Bacillus pumilis-SC124, and Bacillus idriensis-SC127. The genomes range between 3,657,353 and 5,772,725 base pairs with %GC between 37.62% and 46.38%. Introduction Wetland environments play critical roles in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and microbial communities are key players in healthy ecosystem function. Endospore forming bacteria in the Bacillaceae family are metabolically and genomically diverse soil heterotrophs that influence plant health, carbon and nitrogen cycling, and often produce diverse natural products that influence other bacterial and non-bacterial species in their environment (1). We collected two soil samples on January 19, 2023 from 42°43'12.7"N 73°45'01.4"W. One was highly hydrated and within a patch of invasive common reeds (Phragmites sp.) and the other was near the base of an Eastern cottonwood tree (Populus deltoides). Bacillus pumilis strain SC124 was isolated from the soil from near the cottonwood tree, while Bacillus velezensis strain SC119, Priestia megaterium strain SC120, Bacillus zhangzhouensis strain SC123, Bacillus idriensis strain SC127 and were isolated from the marshy soil.

isolate, wetlands, genome announcement↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Charging Flexibility of Shared Automated Electric Vehicle Fleets

The combined anticipated trends of vehicle sharing (ride-hailing), automated control, and powertrain electrification are poised to disrupt the current paradigm of predominately owner-driven gasoline vehicles with low levels of utilization. Shared, automated, electric vehicle (SAEV) fleets offer the potential for lower cost and emissions and have garnered significant interest among the research community. While promising, unmanaged operation of these fleets may lead to unintended negative consequences. One potentially unintended consequence is a high quantity of SAEVs charging during peak demand hours on the electric grid, potentially increasing the required generation capacity. This research explores the flexibility associated with charging loads demanded by SAEV fleets in response to servicing personal mobility travel demands. Travel demand is synthesized in four major United States metropolitan areas: Detroit, MI; Austin, TX; Washington, DC; and Miami, FL. In each of these four cities, SAEV simulations are performed using local projected electricity prices from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) for a handful of supply side scenarios. A coordinated charging model is introduced that seeks to reduce fleet charging costs in response to time-varying electricity prices and increasing shares of personal trip demand served (between 1% and 25% of all metro trips served by the SAEV fleet). Simulation results are presented across various scenarios assuming fleetwide coordination to minimize charging energy costs while constrained by offering adequate mobility service to fleet customers. The results indicate that the SAEV charging load is highly flexible; energy costs were shown to reduce between 13% and 46% across a wide range of simulated scenarios. In addition, these savings were realized without detrimentally impacting the fleet’s ability to service trips.

autonomous vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2021

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). To go from the TGW data to these BA-level aggregated data we first averaged the raw gridded data by county in the United States. That intermediate data step is also stored in MSD-LIVE (https://doi.org/10.57931/1960548). We then population-weight the county-level hourly data in order to create population-weighted meteorology time series for each BA. Historical populations are from the United States Census Bureau and the evolving future populations are based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The four climate scenarios crossed with the two SSPs yield eight different future projections for each BA: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotterssp3, rcp85hotterssp5. For the historical period and each of the eight future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the population-weighted average of five meteorological variables: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and wind speed. All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level and then BA-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

Balancing Authority↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by County Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for each county in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). The four future climate scenarios in the TGW data are: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. For the historical period and each of the four future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the spatial-average of six meteorological variables for each county: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and the U (east-west) and V (north-south) components of the wind speed. Times for each file are in the filename and all times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Counties are identified by their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The mapping between counties and FIPS codes is provided in the state_and_county_fips_codes.csv file. The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

County↗