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At least 109 records · Page 6

Bayesian Analysis of Savings from Retrofit Projects

Estimates of savings from retrofit projects depend on statistical models, but because of the complicated analysis required to determine the uncertainty of the estimates, savings uncertainty is not often considered. Numerous simplified methods have been proposed to determine savings uncertainty, but in all but the simplest cases, these methods provide approximate results only. The objective of this paper is to show that Bayesian inference provides a consistent framework for estimating savings and savings uncertainty in retrofit projects. We review the mathematical background of Bayesian inference and Bayesian regression, and present two examples of estimating savings and savings uncertainty in retrofit projects. The first is a simple case where both baseline and post-retrofit monthly natural gas use can be modeled as a linear function of monthly heating degree days. The Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO 2007) defines two methods of determining savings in such cases: reporting period savings, which is an estimate of the savings during the post-retrofit period; and normalized savings, which is an estimate of the savings that would be obtained during a typical year at the project site. For reporting period savings, classical statistical analysis provides exact analytic results for both savings and savings uncertainty in this case. We use Bayesian analysis to calculate reporting period savings and savings uncertainty and show that the results are identical to the analytical results. For normalized savings, the literature contains no exact expression for the uncertainty of normalized savings; we use Bayesian inference to calculate this quantity for the first time, and compare it with the result of an approximate formula that has been proposed. The second example concerns a problem where the baseline data exhibit nonlinearity and serial autocorrelation, both of which are common in real-world retrofit projects. No analytical solutions exist to determine savings or savings uncertainty in this situation, but several simplified formulas have been proposed. We model the data using a 5-parameter model with first-order autoregressive errors, and use Bayesian inference to develop distributions for the model parameters and for the reporting period savings, which allows us to determine the savings uncertainty. We find the energy savings to be about 5% lower than the result obtained by ignoring the autocorrelation. In addition, the Bayesian analysis finds the savings uncertainty to be narrower than the approximate uncertainty calculated using the simplified formula. These results show that Bayesian inference can be used to determine savings and savings uncertainty for a wide variety of real-world problems.

Im, Piljae↗

DEEP: A Database of Energy Efficiency Performance to Accelerate Energy Retrofitting of Commercial Buildings

The paper presents a method and process to establish a database of energy efficiency performance (DEEP) to enable quick and accurate assessment of energy retrofit of commercial buildings. DEEP was compiled from results of about 35 million EnergyPlus simulations. DEEP provides energy savings for screening and evaluation of retrofit measures targeting the small and medium-sized office and retail buildings in California. The prototype building models are developed for a comprehensive assessment of building energy performance based on DOE commercial reference buildings and the California DEER prototype buildings. The prototype buildings represent seven building types across six vintages of constructions and 16 California climate zones. DEEP uses these prototypes to evaluate energy performance of about 100 energy conservation measures covering envelope, lighting, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, plug-loads, and domestic hot water. DEEP consists the energy simulation results for individual retrofit measures as well as packages of measures to consider interactive effects between multiple measures. The large scale EnergyPlus simulations are being conducted on the super computers at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The pre-simulation database is a part of an on-going project to develop a web-based retrofit toolkit for small and medium-sized commercial buildings in California, which provides real-time energy retrofit feedback by querying DEEP with recommended measures, estimated energy savings and financial payback period based on users’ decision criteria of maximizing energy savings, energy cost savings, carbon reduction, or payback of investment. The pre-simulated database and associated comprehensive measure analysis enhances the ability to performance assessments of retrofits to reduce energy use for small and medium buildings and business owners who typically do not have resources to conduct costly building energy audit. DEEP will be migrated into the DEnCity - DOE’s Energy City, which integrates large-scale energy data for multi-purpose, open, and dynamic database leveraging diverse source of existing simulation data.

Hoon Lee, Sang↗

User Friendly Web-Based Tool to Assess the Energy Efficiency and Durability of Residential Wall Retrofits

According to the U.S. Department of Energy Windows and Building Envelope Research and Development Roadmap for Emerging Technologies, building envelope wall energy loss in the United States accounts for about 5.9 x 1010 kWh or 2 quads of energy annually, costing homeowners and occupants billions of dollars. Enclosure retrofits targeting these losses can save significant energy, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and save occupants millions of dollars over time. Older homes, built before 1992 when DOE’s Building Energy Codes Program was established, represent approximately 68 percent of the residential building stock in the country, often having significant air leakage and inadequate insulation. Homes with little to no air sealing or insulation have heating and cooling losses that can represent a substantial portion of utility bills.High-performance building envelope retrofit systems are rarely selected for retrofit applications. Current solutions are expensive and/or unfamiliar to many designers, builders, contractors, and code officials and therefore are perceived as risky. The dominant perceived risk is durability specifically related to condensation and moisture accumulation in the building envelope component.The Building Science Advisor (BSA) is a rule-based expert system web-based tool that was originally developed to assist building professionals in designing energy efficient and durable wall systems for new construction. With the present focus being placed on upgrading the existing building stock, a retrofit module has been developed that, based on the location, existing construction, and planned retrofit strategy, provides recommendations on how to address the retrofit in a manner that will perform in accordance with IECC 2018 building code and not create a durability problem. This paper will describe the development of this tool and demonstrate its features and capabilities.

Desjarlais, Andre Omer↗

A review of prefabricated overclad panels for building energy retrofits

Over 50% of existing buildings in the US were constructed before 1980 and lack modern, energy-efficient technologies. Despite the large number of old buildings, less than 2% of buildings are retrofitted each year with many of those retrofits consisting of small incremental improvements that often ignore the building envelope. The opaque building envelope affects 25% of building energy use equating to 10% of total US primary energy use. To meet decarbonization goals by 2035, the US must increase the rate of retrofit of existing building envelopes. The process of prefabrication is one potential opportunity to increase the rate of envelope retrofits and reduce costs. Prefabrication is the process of manufacturing construction components in a controlled environment before shipping them on-site to perform assembly of the construction. The process of prefabrication has been demonstrated to increase production efficiency, quality control, and rate of production. Prefabricated overclad panels, consisting of a cladding material and insulation designed to be installed over the existing envelope, have been successfully used to retrofit existing buildings in countries other than the US; however, the technology still has some barriers to major market adoption within the US. This paper will present a review of current implementations and demonstrations of prefabricated overclad panels. The review will include identification of panel types, materials, and applications and aims to identify barriers to retrofit market entry and widespread adoption.

Hayes, Nolan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000332245718)↗

Whole building retrofit using vacuum insulation panels and energy performance analysis

Vacuum insulation panels (VIPs), due to their high thermal performance, provide an attractive alternative to traditional building insulation materials, especially as an option for retrofitting old, poorly insulated buildings. This article describes the complete retrofit of all exterior walls of a single-story building in a cold climate using VIPs. A recently-developed low-cost VIP, called modified atmosphere insulation (MAI), was used in this study. Two buildings of near-identical construction were studied, with one remaining unaltered and serving as the baseline while the other served as the retrofit building. The VIPs or MAI panels proved to be a feasible and durable option for retrofitting building envelopes. Thermal performance of both buildings was analyzed using in-situ temperature and heat flow sensors. Numerical models of the two buildings were created, benchmarked using experimental data and used for predictions of annual energy savings due to the addition of MAI panels to the exterior walls. The models predicted significant reduction in the annual heating energy consumption in the retrofitted building compared to the baseline building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of CNT Energy Savers Retrofit Packages Implemented in Multifamily Buildings

This evaluation explored the feasibility of designing prescriptive retrofit measure packages for typical Chicago region multifamily buildings in order to achieve 25%-30% source energy savings through the study of three case studies. There is an urgent need to scale up energy efficiency retrofitting of Chicago's multifamily buildings in order to address rising energy costs and a rapidly depleting rental stock. Aimed at retrofit program administrators and building science professionals, this research project investigates the possibility of using prescriptive retrofit packages as a time- and resource-effective approach to the process of retrofitting multifamily buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using Retrofit Nail Base Panels to Expand the Market for Wall Upgrades

This project evaluated the effectiveness and affordability of integrating retrofit insulated panels into a re-siding project. The Partnership for Home Innovation (PHI) teamed with New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), the Albany Housing Authority (AHA), and the New York State Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) administered by Albany Community Action Partnership to demonstrate an energy retrofit and siding upgrade on a two-story, seven unit, multifamily building in Albany New York (CZ 5). The project focused on accomplishing three goals - doubling the existing wall thermal resistance (from approximately R-13 to a weighted average of R-27), reduction of building air leakage, and completion of the retrofit within a budget where the additional cost for upgrading wall's thermal resistance is equal to the cost of the standard re-siding effort (i.e., the total cost of the energy efficient re-siding scope of work is not more than double the cost of the standard re-siding effort). Lessons learned from the project strongly indicate that the retrofit panel technology can be installed using common installation practices and with minimal training. Other lessons learned include limitation on the use of standard air sealing materials during cold weather installations and the need to develop better installation guidance for trades working with the level of tolerances that may be present in the existing structure. This technology demonstration showed that exterior retrofit panels provide a viable and reasonable option for the siding trades to increase market opportunities and achieve synergistic benefits for aesthetic upgrades to a building's exterior.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of CNT Energy Savers Retrofit Packages Implemented in Multifamily Buildings

This evaluation explored the feasibility of designing prescriptive retrofit measure packages for typical Chicago region multifamily buildings in order to achieve 25%-30% source energy savings through the study of three case studies. There is an urgent need to scale up energy efficiency retrofitting of Chicago's multifamily buildings in order to address rising energy costs and a rapidly depletingrental stock. Aimed at retrofit program administrators and building science professionals, this research project investigates the possibility of using prescriptive retrofit packages as a time- and resource-effective approach to the process of retrofitting multifamily buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Building America Case Study: Trade-Friendly Retrofit Insulated Panels for Existing Buildings, Albany, New York

This project evaluated the effectiveness and affordability of integrating retrofit insulated panels into a re-siding project. The Partnership for Home Innovation (PHI) teamed with New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), the Albany Housing Authority (AHA), and the New York State Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) administered by Albany Community Action Partnership to demonstrate an energy retrofit and siding upgrade on a two-story, seven unit, multifamily building in Albany New York (CZ 5). The project focused on accomplishing three goals - doubling the existing wall thermal resistance (from approximately R-13 to a weighted average of R-27), reduction of building air leakage, and completion of the retrofit within a budget where the additional cost for upgrading wall's thermal resistance is equal to the cost of the standard re-siding effort (i.e., the total cost of the energy efficient re-siding scope of work is not more than double the cost of the standard re-siding effort). Lessons learned from the project strongly indicate that the retrofit panel technology can be installed using common installation practices and with minimal training. Other lessons learned include limitation on the use of standard air sealing materials during cold weather installations and the need to develop better installation guidance for trades working with the level of tolerances that may be present in the existing structure. This technology demonstration showed that exterior retrofit panels provide a viable and reasonable option for the siding trades to increase market opportunities and achieve synergistic benefits for aesthetic upgrades to a building's exterior.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

National Grid Deep Energy Retrofit Pilot

Through discussion of five case studies (test homes), this project evaluates strategies to elevate the performance of existing homes to a level commensurate with best-in-class implementation of high-performance new construction homes. The test homes featured in this research activity participated in Deep Energy Retrofit (DER) Pilot Program sponsored by the electric and gas utility National Gridin Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Building enclosure retrofit strategies are evaluated for impact on durability and indoor air quality in addition to energy performance. Evaluation of strategies is structured around the critical control functions of water, airflow, vapor flow, and thermal control. The aim of the research project is to develop guidance that could serve as a foundation for wideradoption of high performance, 'deep' retrofit work. The project will identify risk factors endemic to advanced retrofit in the context of the general building type, configuration and vintage encountered in the National Grid DER Pilot. Results for the test homes are based on observation and performance testing of recently completed projects. Additional observation would be needed to fully gaugelong-term energy performance, durability, and occupant comfort.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of Retrofit Delivery Packages

Residential energy retrofit activities are a critical component of efforts to increase energy efficiency in the U.S. building stock; however, retrofits account for a small percentage of aggregate energy savings at relatively high per unit costs. This report by Building America research team, Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), describes barriers to widespread retrofits and evaluates opportunities to improve delivery of home retrofit measures by identifying economies of scale in marketing, energy assessments, and bulk purchasing through pilot programs in portions of Sonoma, Los Angeles, and San Joaquin Counties, CA. These targeted communities show potential and have revealed key strategies for program design, as outlined in the report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Long-term carbon emission reduction potential of building retrofits with dynamically changing electricity emission factors

Buildings account for approximately 36% of the United States' total carbon emissions and building retrofits have great potential to reduce carbon emissions. Current research adopts a constant electricity emission factor although it changes over time due to the increase of renewable energy generation. Here, to accurately predict emission reduction potential of building retrofits, this study develops a novel method by using dynamically changing electricity emission factors. Using medium office buildings as an example, we predicted emission reduction of eight building retrofit measures from 2020 to 2050 in five locations in the U.S. with distinct climates and renewable adoption rates. To evaluate emission reduction potential sensitivity to the compositions of electricity generation, five scenarios for renewable energy adoptions are investigated. The results reveal several new phenomena on emission reduction potential of building retrofits for medium offices in the U.S.: (1) it decreases from 2026 to 2050; (2) it has the same trend with coal usage; and (3) it reaches the maximum under the high renewable cost scenario. Based on the results, it is recommended that building retrofits should focus on 1) improving lighting and equipment efficiency; 2) locations with higher coal usage rate, and 3) buildings under the high renewable cost scenario. The new method can also be used for predicting emission reduction potential of the building sector in the U.S. by applying to other building types and regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advancing Residential Retrofits in the Mixed-humid Climate to Achieve Deep Energy Savings: Final Report on Knoxville, TN Homes

To contribute to the Department of Energy goal of enabling cost effective energy retrofits with 50% source energy reduction of the residential house stock by 2030, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has spurred and analyzed residential retrofits in the mixed-humid climate around Knoxville, Tennessee. An in-depth description of all the homes in the study can be found in an interim report (Boudreaux et al. 2012) which includes descriptions of the implemented retrofits and their estimated energy savings and cost-effectiveness based on pre- and post-retrofit energy models. The aliases for the five homes are Baker, Country, Summit, Gaiter, and Green. Table ES-1 gives a qualitative view of the retrofit measures implemented at each home.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Measured Cooling Performance and Potential for Buried Duct Condensation in a 1991 Central Florida Retrofit Home

FSEC conducted energy performance monitoring of two existing residences in Central Florida that were undergoing various retrofits. These homes were occupied by FSEC researchers and were fully instrumented to provide detailed energy, temperature, and humidity measurements. The data provided feedback about the performance of two levels of retrofit in two types of homes in a hot-humid climate. This report covers a moderate-level retrofit and includes two years of pre-retrofit data to characterize the impact of improvements. The other home is a 'deep energy retrofit' (detailed in a separate report) that has performed at near zero energy with a photovoltaic (PV) system and extensive envelope improvements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ≥ 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Bay Ridge Gardens - Mixed-Humid Affordable Multifamily Housing Deep Energy Retrofit

Under this project, Newport Partners (as part of the BA-PIRC research team) evaluated the installation, measured performance, and cost-effectiveness of efficiency upgrade measures for a tenant-in-place DER at the Bay Ridge multifamily (MF) development in Annapolis, Maryland. The design and construction phase of the Bay Ridge project was completed in August 2012. This report summarizes system commissioning, short-term test results, utility bill data analysis, and analysis of real-time data collected over a one-year period after the retrofit was complete. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a 'base scope' retrofit which was estimated to achieve a 30%+ savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on 186 apartments, and a 'DER scope' which was estimated to achieve 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on a 12-unit building. The base scope was applied to the entire apartment complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. A wide range of efficiency measures was applied to pursue this savings target for the DER building, including improvements/replacements of mechanical equipment and distribution systems, appliances, lighting and lighting controls, the building envelope, hot water conservation measures, and resident education. The results of this research build upon the current body of knowledge of multifamily retrofits. Towards this end, the research team has collected and generated data on the selection of measures, their estimated performance, their measured performance, and risk factors and their impact on potential measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Bay Ridge Gardens – Mixed Humid Affordable Multifamily Housing Deep Energy Retrofit: Annapolis, Maryland - Building America Case Study: Whole-House Solutions for Existing Homes [Fact Sheet]

Under this project, Newport Partners (as part of the BA-PIRC research team) evaluated the installation, measured performance, and cost-effectiveness of efficiency upgrade measures for a tenant-in-place DER at the Bay Ridge multifamily (MF) development in Annapolis, Maryland. The design and construction phase of the Bay Ridge project was completed in August 2012. This report summarizes system commissioning, short-term test results, utility bill data analysis, and analysis of real-time data collected over a one-year period after the retrofit was complete. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a "base scope" retrofit which was estimated to achieve a 30%+ savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on 186 apartments, and a "DER scope" which was estimated to achieve 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit) on a 12-unit building. The base scope was applied to the entire apartment complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. A wide range of efficiency measures was applied to pursue this savings target for the DER building, including improvements/replacements of mechanical equipment and distribution systems, appliances, lighting and lighting controls, the building envelope, hot water conservation measures, and resident education. The results of this research build upon the current body of knowledge of multifamily retrofits. Towards this end, the research team has collected and generated data on the selection of measures, their estimated performance, their measured performance, and risk factors and their impact on potential measures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Measured Cooling Performance and Potential for Buried Duct Condensation in a 1991 Central Florida Retrofit Home

FSEC conducted energy performance monitoring of two existing residences in Central Florida that were undergoing various retrofits. These homes were occupied by FSEC researchers and were fully instrumented to provide detailed energy, temperature, and humidity measurements. The data provided feedback about the performance of two levels of retrofit in two types of homes in a hot-humid climate. This report covers a moderate-level retrofit and includes two years of pre-retrofit data to characterize the impact of improvements. The other home is a 'deep energy retrofit' (detailed in a separate report) that has performed at near zero energy with a photovoltaic (PV) system and extensive envelope improvements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗