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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Properties, Theory, and Measurements for Understanding the Function of Heavy Elements (Project 20180474CR, Final Technical Report)

The FY18-20 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funded Properties, Theory, and Measurements for Understanding the Function of Heavy Elements Project aim has been to advance heavy element science in a comprehensive project connecting targeted research with Los Alamos mission imperatives. The mechanisms for project implementation were (1) support of a multi-year broad-based postdoctoral fellows project, (2) a summer student fellows research project and two seminar series, and (3) organization of structured workshops and integrated educational and career development opportunities. The project was successfully administered by the Glenn T. Seaborg Institute (GTSI) for Transactinium Science and has shown to be an exceptional investment in supporting the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) mission areas requiring heavy element and actinide science by attracting and funding the future generation of scientists and engineers. This project exhibited its value across the laboratory in heavy element and actinide science areas include materials, material properties, signatures, modeling, predictions, fabrication, detection, disposal, global security implications, forensics, and the specialized science surrounding plutonium, uranium, and their surrogates as fuels for energy and nuclear weapons. In this report, the GTSI project staff documents the “high return on investment” implementation as measured against the successes of previous actinide research and science-based projects and as evidenced by the retention of 30% of G.T. Seaborg Postdoctoral Fellows as permanent employees. With additional funding through LDRD Reserve funding during this project period, the GTSI expanded its support for heavy element and actinide science research with a Visiting Research Seaborg Scholar and a Rapid Response Small Projects call. These innovations have served to advance GTSI pursuits as communicated in our FY21-23 LDRD Proposal Project#: 20210527CR Seaborg Institute: Center for Advancing Actinide Science and Technology at LANL

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LAMP Project Facility and Space Requirements

The project will require significant space over the lifetime of the project to successfully execute design, technology maturation, component testing and verification, and final removal and installation. The types of space required falls into three general categories: office, storage, and laboratory. Figure 1 below summarizes the project space requirements by project lifecycle. The specific color coding indicates the availability (and potential risk to the project) of the particular type of space: green indicates space that is already allocated and in use by the LAMP project; yellow indicates space that is expected to be easily transitioned from its current use to the project; red indicates a space that is use by multiple users or other projects, and will most likely require high-level negotiations and planning to become available to the project. Figure 2 summarizes the LAMP Space Requirements by calendar year and type throughout the duration of the project. As can be seen in Fig. 2, the maximum space needed by the project exceeds 40,000 square feet, with an average space requirement over the lifetime of the project equal to approximately 25,000 square feet.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2020

W.A. Parish Post-Combustion CO 2 Capture and Sequestration Demonstration Project (Final Technical Report)

The Petra Nova Project (Project) is a commercial scale post-combustion carbon capture project developed by a joint venture between NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) and JX Nippon Oil Exploration (EOR) Limited (JX). The Project is designed to separate and capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from an existing coal-fired unit’s flue gas slipstream at NRG’s W.A. Parish Electric Generating Station (WAP) located southwest of Houston, Texas. The captured CO2 is dried, compressed, and transported via an 81-mile pipeline to the West Ranch oilfield (West Ranch) in Jackson County, Texas, where it is injected to boost oil production. The Project, which is partially funded by a grant (Grant) from the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) under the Clean Coal Power Initiative (CCPI) Round 3, uses the Kansai Mitsubishi Carbon Dioxide Recovery advanced amine-based CO 2 absorption technology (KM-CDR Process®), which was jointly developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI) and the Kansai Electric Power Co. Inc., to treat and capture at least ninety percent (90%) of the CO 2 from a 240-megawatt equivalent (MWe) flue gas slipstream off of Unit 8 at WAP. When operating at full capacity, the Project captures approximately 5,200 short tons of CO 2 per day, which would otherwise be emitted into the atmosphere, representing the largest commercial scale deployment of post-combustion CO2 capture technology at a coal power plant to date. Under the Grant, the Project was managed in 3 phases: (1) Phase 1: Project Definition / Front End Engineering Design (FEED) (2) Phase 2: Detailed Engineering, Procurement & Construction (3) Phase 3: Demonstration and Monitoring. On December 29, 2016, commercial operation of the Project was achieved, ending Phase 2 and starting Phase 3, a 3-year demonstration period running from January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2019. The key objectives of Phase 3 were to (a) demonstrate the specific advanced technologies constructed during Phase 2 and (b) monitor the injected CO 2 at West Ranch to demonstrate technologies and protocols for monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA). As of the end of Phase 3, Petra Nova captured 3,904,978 short tons of CO 2 (3,542,537 metric tons) that was transported to West Ranch. To support the DOE obligation to monitor, verify, and account for the sequestered CO 2 at West Ranch, Petra Nova contracted with the Bureau of Economic Geology (in the Jackson School of Geosciences at The University of Texas at Austin) to (a) design a monitoring program, (b) draft an MVA Plan for DOE review and approval, and (c) working with Petra Nova and the operator of West Ranch to manage and report on the MVA activity. This report discussed the technical aspects of the project during each of the 3 phases of the project as identified above.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

G3P3 Phase 3 Project Execution Plan. Issue 1

The National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories New Mexico (SNL/NM) developed this Project Execution Plan (PEP) to document its process for executing, monitoring, controlling and closing-out Phase 3 of the Gen 3 Particle Pilot Plant G3P3. This plan serves as a resource for stakeholders who wish to be knowledgeable of project objectives and how they will be accomplished. The plan is intended to be used by the development partners, principal investigator, and the federal project director. Project objectives are derived from the mission needs statement, and an integrated project team assists in development of the PEP. This plan is a living document and will be updated throughout the project to describe current and future processes and procedures. The scope of the PEP covers: Cost, schedule, and scope Project reporting Staffing plan Quality assurance plan Environment, safety, security, and health This document is a tailored approach for the Facilities Management and Operations Center (FMOC) to meet the project management principles of DOE Order 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets , and DOE G 413.3-15, DOE Guide for Project Execution Plans. This document will elaborate on content as knowledge of the project is gained or refined.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Mid-Continent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub Project Phase II (Final Summary Report)

The Phase II Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-HUB) is part of the Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) established by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). CarbonSAFE is phased to support the development of commercial-scale (50 million metric tonnes [Mt] over a 30-year period) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the United States. The IMSCS-HUB study area comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska (the source corridor), and CO 2 sinks in Kansas and Nebraska (the storage corridor), representing the first large-scale project for the Midcontinent region. The stacked storage corridor is characterized by alternating sequences of deep saline formations, oil-bearing reservoirs, shale, and evaporite units that are conducive to vertically stacked CO 2 injection for geologic storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Three sites within the IMSCS-HUB stacked storage corridor were evaluated in Phase II for commercial CCUS feasibility: one in southwest-central Nebraska, Sleepy Hollow Field (SHF), a second in southwestern Nebraska near Madrid (Madrid), and a third in southwestern Kansas, the Patterson Site (composed of the Patterson, Heinitz, Hartland, and Oslo fields). In Phase II, the team assessed the feasibility of storage complexes at the potential storage sites in Nebraska and Kansas to support a commercial-scale storage hub that integrates proven CO 2 capture technology and transport from nearby ethanol sources. Building on lessons learned from the DOE-NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs), the Project Team has identified a clear strategy to meet DOE’s 2025 objective of commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation by developing a CO 2 market and infrastructure that relies on multiple ethanol-based CO 2 sources in the short term and the incorporation of multiple coal-fired power plant CO 2 sources when commercial capture is economically viable. The team also leveraged the updated 45Q tax credit to develop capture and transport infrastructure. Commercial-scale CCUS is feasible at two candidate storage sites studied, the Madrid, Nebraska Site and the Patterson Site in Kearny County, Kansas. The Sleepy Hollow Field in Nebraska was found to be an attractive candidate for stacked storage with CO 2 -EOR (Battelle 2020e). Outreach efforts facilitated engagement from industry, government, and research sectors (Battelle and GPI, 2020) and an outreach plan for future phases of the project was developed to address issues that are of concern in the IMSCS-HUB project area (Battelle, 2020f). All components of a CCUS project were determined to be feasible in the IMSCS-HUB region and Risk Mitigation Plan was developed and includes strategies to mitigate risks associated with each project component (Battelle, 2020j). A roadmap was developed to obtain the required UIC permits for an integrated CCUS project (Battelle, 2020k). The regional storage resource characterization demonstrated significant opportunity for commercial-scale projects in the IMSCS-HUB storage corridor with 577.4 Mt of stacked CO 2 storage capacity and the potential to produce 181.9 MMbbls of oil via EOR across 17 individual storage areas (Battelle and ARI, 2020). The pipeline assessment study found viable pipeline routes that connected 45Q-eligible ethanol plants, coal fired power plants, and other sources in the IMSCS-HUB corridor. The comprehensive results of subsurface characterization, modeling efforts, outreach assessment, and regulatory analysis from were integrated to develop a Detailed Commercial Development Plan for the IMSCS-HUB (Battelle, 2020n). Commercialization efforts will involve obtaining Class VI UIC permits, establishing and finalizing the pipeline route, and evaluating capture projects at participating CO 2 sources. Phases I and II of the IMSCS-HUB CarbonSAFE provide a strong foundation for safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively characterizing and permitting commercial-scale project sites in the region. The plan for implementation of commercial-scale CCUS projects in the IMSCS-HUB is aligned with the objectives of CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and CO 2 Capture Assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the PACE of household energy usage: Energy usage impacts of projects financed through Property Assessed Clean Energy programs in California

This report examines the household-level energy impacts of residential property assessed clean energy (R-PACE) projects using normalized metered energy consumption methods. Our analysis covers projects that occurred through an R-PACE program between 2009 and 2017 and includes more than 25,000 electricity meters and 15,000 gas meters. We employ a comparison group, drawn from other R-PACE households with similar locational and usage characteristics whose projects were implemented at different times, to control for some non-project and non-weather factors that may impact energy use. We find that projects consisting of energy efficiency technologies save, on average, about 3% of household electricity usage and 3.5% of household gas usage. R-PACE financing, however, can be used to install central heating or air conditioning equipment for the first time. These projects would be expected to increase energy consumption. Since our data do not directly indicate which projects are new installations, we develop a simple algorithm for identifying them. Removing these inferred installation projects yields average savings of about 5% for electricity and 6% for gas for those households that remain in the sample. Given the mild California climate and the results of another study of similar California projects using similar methods, these results are in line with expectations. Solar PV projects yield large reductions in grid electricity use, averaging 69% of household consumption. We estimate that, collectively, all R-PACE projects installed in California through 2019 would generate annual reductions in grid-tied electricity consumption of 506 GWh (mostly due to solar PV) and gas consumption reductions of 2 million therms in a normal weather year. These impacts are equivalent to the electricity consumption of about 74,000 California households (including both efficiency and PV generation) and the gas consumption of about 4700 California households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Novel Earned Value Management System Maturity Framework and Its Relation to Project Performance

Earned value management systems (EVMS) are used by industry practitioners to successfully manage projects and programs; however, there has been no past study to characterize and evaluate the impact of EVMS maturity on project performance. This paper introduces a novel framework, developed to measure the EVMS maturity, composed of 56 attributes arrayed across ten subprocesses, which together make up an integrated project/program management system. This paper describes how the framework was conceived and developed, based on literature review and data collected from industry workshops. Then, it examines the relationship between EVMS maturity and ten project performance metrics through statistical analyses. The study analyzed project data from 35 projects and programs worth over $21.8 billion in total cost. For this sample, results showed statistically significant differences between projects with high and low EVMS maturity; on average, projects exhibiting high EVMS maturity have 54% less cost overruns and 19% less change orders versus their performance measurement baseline. Higher maturity projects and programs also achieve better customer satisfaction, meet business objectives more often, and are more often in compliance with EVMS standards and guidelines. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical and novel framework for assessing the maturity of earned value management systems. Practitioners can use the framework to improve their integrated project and program management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Safeguards by Design Projects (FY2020 Final Report)

This University Engagement project challenged engineering students at universities, that do not have Bachelor degrees in nuclear engineering but do have research reactors and some nuclear engineering coursework, to incorporate Safeguards by Design concepts into their Senior Capstone Design Project. This University Engagement project was part of the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, Next Generation Safeguards Initiative, Human Capital Development: University Engagement Program. This program exposed university students with Mechanical Engineering majors and Nuclear Engineering minors to the concepts of international nuclear safeguards. FY20, three teams at the University of Rhode Island and one team at the University of Texas - Austin participated in researching, designing, building, and testing projects to support international nuclear safeguards measurements or verification. The projects involved engaging in activities at the university’s research reactors. All the projects engaged students with prototyping a design and/or tool for application at the Universities’ reactor. At the end of the course, most of the students expressed the experience was a positive and they learned more about international nuclear safeguards and applying requirements than they had previously encountered. This school year the projects were further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both universities cancelled in class room classes, and limited direct student/professor interactions. Furthermore, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) greatly restricted travel, therefore making it impossible to visit the students at the end of the semester for the review of their design projects. The final design and review meeting for the projects happened via the internet. Additionally, while the teams planned to build prototypes this did not happen since there was a social distancing ban on students meeting in person.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Adaptable and Comprehensive Project Assessment Tool

Most companies, agencies, and other real property owners require capital asset projects to pass some type of scrutiny before budgets and authority to expend funds for the design, construction and eventual operations are approved. This process typically involves management approval of key/critical decision(s) or a project’s passage through gates (or critical decisions). Cost, functionality, safety, and risk are just some of the factors typically considered during project assessment processes. This paper describes a tool that was developed and is used by the Department of Energy to facilitate this project assessment process. There are three versions of this tool for construction, decontamination and decommissioning (D&D), and environmental restoration/cleanup project types. The tool’s elements and associated criteria are tailored for each project type; although some elements, such as cost estimating and scheduling, are used in common. The tool is easy to use, requiring little or no training. It provides a common assessment tool for project self-appraisals and independent project reviews. It promotes efficiency and reduces disagreements and unnecessary effort. A comprehensive array of elements covers the gamut of cost, schedule, scope/technical, and safety/security ensuring that no important project attributes are overlooked. The tool is adaptable for use by any organization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Safeguards by Design Projects (Final Report-FY-22)

This University Engagement project challenged engineering students at universities, that do not have Bachelor degree programs in nuclear engineering but do have research reactors and some nuclear engineering coursework, to incorporate Safeguards by Design concepts into their Senior Capstone Design Project. This University Engagement project was part of the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI), Human Capital Development (HCD): University Engagement Program. This program exposed university students with Mechanical Engineering majors and Nuclear Engineering minors to the concepts of international nuclear safeguards. In FY22, three teams at the University of Rhode Island and two teams at the University of Texas - Austin participated in researching, designing, building, and testing projects to support international nuclear safeguards measurements or verification. The projects involved engaging in activities at the university’s research reactors. All the projects engaged students with prototyping a design and/or tool for application at the Universities’ reactor. At the end of the course, most of the students expressed the experience was positive and they learned more about international nuclear safeguards and applying requirements than they had previously encountered. This school year the projects were further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both universities had limited in classes on campus, still relying on Zoom classes, and limited direct student/professor interactions. Furthermore, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) greatly restricted travel, therefore making it impossible to visit the students at the end of the semester for the review of their design projects. The final design and review meeting for the projects happened via meetings over the internet. Additionally, the teams did build and test some prototypes but could only do so in a limited capacity.

42 ENGINEERING↗