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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Communication satellite services for special purpose users

The present study identifies potential satellite services, examines the technology necessary for efficient implementation of these services, and determines minimum service cost versus user network size. The generic satellite services evaluated comprise TV and radio distribution (for retransmission), video teleconferencing (interactive), audio/facsimile teleconferencing (interactive), multiplexed data/voice (point-to-point), and satellite-supported land mobile. Satellite costs are based on extrapolations from ongoing commercial satellite programs. Production methods, new technology, and effect of production quantities on present and future production costs are examined to provide information on earth station equipment cost versus the variable 'buy'. Six different launch vehicles from a Delta 2914 to a dedicated Shuttle and three frequency bands and both broadcast (no eclipse capability) and fixed service satellites are considered to assess the effect of satellite size on cost and performance. It is assumed that the user pays only for his prorata share of the space segment costs.

Wright, D. L.↗

Strategies for simulating the time evolution of Hamiltonian lattice field theories

Simulating the time evolution of quantum field theories given some Hamiltonian H requires developing algorithms for implementing the unitary operator e -iHt . A variety of techniques exist that accomplish this task, with the most common technique used so far being Trotterization, which is a special case of the application of a product formula. However, other techniques exist that promise better asymptotic scaling in certain parameters of the theory being simulated, the most efficient of which are based on the concept of block encoding. In this work we study the performance of such algorithms in simulating lattice field theories. We derive and compare the asymptotic gate complexities of several commonly used simulation techniques in application to Hamiltonian lattice field theories. Using the scalar $\hat{φ}$ 4 theory as a test, we also perform numerical studies and compare the gate costs required by product formulas and signal-processing-based techniques to simulate time evolution. For the latter, we use the linear combination of unitaries (LCU) construction augmented with the quantum Fourier transform circuit to switch between the field and momentum eigenbases, which leads to immediate order-of-magnitude improvement in the cost of preparing the block encoding. Further, this paper also includes a pedagogical review of the techniques used, in particular product formulas, LCU, qubitization, quantum signal processing, as well as the technique for simulating geometrically-local Hamiltonians developed by Haah, Hastings, Kothari, and Low.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Transmission Alternatives for California North Coast Offshore Wind, Volume 4: Cost-Benefit Analysis Report

The purpose of this report is to compare the costs and benefits of installing offshore wind power plants with capacities up to 500 megawatts (MW) in the Humboldt Wind Energy Area offshore California, focusing on identifying the costs related to transmission upgrades and possible alternatives such as energy storage. We identify several options that result in lower costs than upgrading transmission to provide full deliverability. Our estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) assuming full deliverability range from $80/MWh for a 144-MW plant to $73/MWh for a 480-MW plant with a 2030 commercial operation date; however, the additional cost of transmission upgrades increases these values to between $86/MWh and $98/MWh. Based on curtailment and revenue estimates developed using a production cost model, the LCOEs for plant capacities of 144 MW and 168 MW with Energy Only deliverability are lower than the combined cost of energy and transmission upgrades for full deliverability. The addition of a 4-hour, 15-MW battery energy storage system increases revenue for both plant sizes, with the 144 MW + storage scenario producing the most revenue relative to LCOE.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Noble-Metal-Free, Nickel-Based Dual Functional Materials for Improved Methane Production from In Situ Carbon Dioxide Capture and Conversion

Promoters for dual functional materials have not been well explored, but promoters could improve the efficiency of the process by improving the selectivity of the CO 2 methanation process. Utilizing integrated capture and conversion, where CO 2 is captured and converted to useful products, would allow for a useful avenue to control CO 2 emissions. One such way to accomplish this would be to utilize materials that can both capture and convert CO 2 to useful products. However, these materials are often based on costly noble metals, like ruthenium and platinum, decreasing their viability on an industrial scale. Less expensive metals, for example, nickel, would allow for dual functional materials to be more readily utilized in industrial settings. Nickel-based dual functional materials often do not react with the captured CO 2 and merely desorb the CO 2 rather than form a useful product. However, promoters have not been well explored for these types of materials to improve the catalytic properties, which would be beneficial to improve nickel-based materials. Herein, we report the addition of ytterbium on a nickel-based dual functional material and the improvements to the production of methane from captured CO 2 with the incorporated ytterbium promoter. The ytterbium promoter improves the selectivity of the catalysts for the hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methane and increases the ability for the material to capture CO 2 due to additional basic sites being formed on the surface of alumina. As a result, the 12%Ni/4%Yb/6%Na 2 O/Al 2 O 3 catalyst was utilized to capture carbon dioxide and then convert the captured CO 2 to methane over five cycles, where both the amount captured and the amount converted remained stable, indicating the stability of the material over long-term use.

Catalysts↗

Tandem particle-slurry batch reactors for solar water splitting (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Economically, particle slurry reactors are projected to be one of the most promising technologies for solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production, according to a 2009 techno-economic analysis commissioned by the US DOE and performed by Directed Technologies, Inc. The Fuel Cell Technologies Office’s Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration (MYRD&D) goals and targets are to reduce the cost of H 2 produced from renewable sources at the plant gate (i.e. not including delivery, dispensing, or storage) to < $2.00/gge, equivalent to ~$2.00/kg H 2 . Research results from our techno-economic modeling research suggest that this target could be met using particle slurry reactors assuming STH efficiencies in the range of 5 – 10%, materials lifetimes of < 1 year, and nanoparticles that cost up to 20 times more than projected costs of TiO 2 -coated Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles. Although most large worldwide research efforts directed at solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production focus on wafer-based designs, the projected lower cost for a particle slurry reactor at these disparate projected STH efficiencies clearly suggests that particle slurry reactors could be a scalable and deployable technology, assuming several challenges are overcome. These major technological challenges include the demonstration of a vertically-stacked-vessel architecture that is capable of operating sustainably while mostly relying on diffusion and natural convection to mix the redox shuttles between the vessels, and the demonstration that photocatalyst particles can operate at an overall 1% STH efficiency or larger when incorporated into this two-vessel design. Our research adds to the understanding of photocatalytic reactors for solar water splitting through numerical modeling results and experimental results. Numerical models were developed to simulate relevant device physics including particle and reactor dimensions which affect optical, transport, and rheological properties, electrocatalytic and photovoltaic properties of particles at various temperatures, and properties of redox shuttles and separators. Moreover, theoretical maximum solar-to-hydrogen efficiencies for ensembles of particles like in photocatalyst reactors were modeled and simulated and shown to equal or exceed those of photoelectrochemical designs under most scenarios. These results help determine constraints on the reactor that will enable more optimal designs for future prototypes. In parallel, experiments were performed to identify the most effective redox shuttles and to empirically validate the numerical models and simulations. Toward the latter, state-of-the-art light-absorbing particles and electrocatalysts were synthesized and characterized physically and photoelectrochemically for water electrolysis and redox chemistry with redox shuttles in the form factor of mesoporous electrodes and free-floating particles. The most promising materials candidates were used in a suspension reactor to evaluate performance toward photocatalytic H 2 production and results from the two measurements were compared. Predominantly, state-of-the-art cocatalyst-modified Rh-doped SrTiO 3 and BiVO 4 particles were further characterized to assess for their ability to perform visible-light-driven H 2 and O 2 evolution, respectively, and results were similar to those reported for the state-of-the-art in the peer-reviewed literature. Outcomes from this work inform the public of the effectiveness and promise of solar photocatalytic water splitting for clean and renewable hydrogen production. This work may also help increase research interest and funding for photocatalysis projects, which will accelerate development of a technology that will benefit the public by generating fuel while emitting few greenhouse gases and pollutants.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗

Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Hydrogen Production Technologies

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select hydrogen production plants utilizing fossil fuel resources as the primary feedstocks – specifically, natural gas (NG), steam methane reforming (SMR), NG autothermal reforming (ATR), coal gasification, and coal/biomass co-gasification – using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. Study cases were selected to reflect the capabilities of current, commercial technologies within plant configurations, and at scales, representative of next commercial offerings facing no fundamental research and development (R&D) obstacles. Additionally, several areas of R&D are identified as potential pathways for performance improvements and cost reductions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Processing of Space Resources to Enable the Vision for Space Exploration

The NASA human exploration program as directed by the Vision for Exploration (G.W. Bush, Jan. 14,2004) includes developing methods to process materials on the Moon and beyond to enable safe and affordable human exploration. Processing space resources was first popularized (O Neill 1976) as a technically viable, economically feasible means to build city sized habitats and multi GWatt solar power satellites in Earth/Moon space. Although NASA studies found the concepts to be technically reasonable in the post Apollo era (AMES 1979), the front end costs the limits of national or corporate investment. In the last decade analysis of space on has shown it to be economically justifiable even on a relatively small mission or commercial scenario basis. The Mars Reference Mission analysis (JSC 1997) demonstrated that production of return propellant on Mars can enable an order of magnitude decrease in the costs of human Mars missions. Analysis (by M. Duke 2003) shows that production of propellant on the Moon for the Earth based satellite industries can be commercially viable after a human lunar base is established. Similar economic analysis (Rapp 2005) also shows large cost benefits for lunar propellant production for Mars missions and for the use of lunar materials for the production of photovoltaic power (Freundlich 2005). Recent technologies could enable much smaller initial costs, to achieve mass, energy, and life support self sufficiency, than were achievable in the 1970s. If the Exploration Vision program is executed with a front end emphasis on space resources, it could provide a path for human self reliance beyond Earth orbit. This path can lead to an open, non-zero-sum, future for humanity with safer human competition with limitless growth potential. This paper discusses extension of the analysis for space resource utilization, to determine the minimum systems necessary for human self sufficiency and growth off Earth. Such a approach can provide a more compelling and comprehensive path to space resource utilization.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A synthetic design environment for ship design

Rapid advances in computer science and information system technology have made possible the creation of synthetic design environments (SDE) which use virtual prototypes to increase the efficiency and agility of the design process. This next generation of computer-based design tools will rely heavily on simulation and advanced visualization techniques to enable integrated product and process teams to concurrently conceptualize, design, and test a product and its fabrication processes. This paper summarizes a successful demonstration of the feasibility of using a simulation based design environment in the shipbuilding industry. As computer science and information science technologies have evolved, there have been many attempts to apply and integrate the new capabilities into systems for the improvement of the process of design. We see the benefits of those efforts in the abundance of highly reliable, technologically complex products and services in the modern marketplace. Furthermore, the computer-based technologies have been so cost effective that the improvements embodied in modern products have been accompanied by lowered costs. Today the state-of-the-art in computerized design has advanced so dramatically that the focus is no longer on merely improving design methodology; rather the goal is to revolutionize the entire process by which complex products are conceived, designed, fabricated, tested, deployed, operated, maintained, refurbished and eventually decommissioned. By concurrently addressing all life-cycle issues, the basic decision making process within an enterprise will be improved dramatically, leading to new levels of quality, innovation, efficiency, and customer responsiveness. By integrating functions and people with an enterprise, such systems will change the fundamental way American industries are organized, creating companies that are more competitive, creative, and productive.

Chipman, Richard R.↗

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Interfacial engineering for high performance carbon-based perovskite solar cells

Perovskite solar cells fabricated with carbon-based counter electrodes demonstrate decreased cost, enhanced simplicity and speed of production, and increased stability compared to those produced with standard metallic electrodes. This significant improvement of device stability, cost reduction, and production scalability indicates a promising direction for commercial development and availability of perovskite solar technology. The main limitation of carbon-based perovskite devices is the flawed contact between the carbon electrode and perovskite film which decreases device quality and performance, thereby necessitating treatment of the carbon/perovskite interface. This review provides an overview of the current state of carbon-based perovskite devices, discusses progress in carbon/perovskite interface modification methods, and suggests future directions for the research of carbon electrode/perovskite film interface manipulation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hydrogen Storage System Cost Analysis (2017-2021) (Final Report)

This final technical report summarizes hydrogen storage system cost analysis results from 2017-2021. Results include onboard hydrogen storage system costs for light-duty vehicles, medium-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles, class 8 long haul trucks, and passenger buses. Multiple storage systems are included, primarily focusing on compressed and cryo-compressed hydrogen in Type 3 and Type 4 storage systems. Additional analysis includes large-scale gaseous and liquid hydrogen storage at refueling stations in tube trailers and Dewars; advanced materials-based storage systems such as metal organic frameworks and metal hydrides; and a baseline setting analysis of compressed natural gas storage systems in support of the Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing Initiative (IACMI). Analyses were primarily conducted using a Design for Manufacture and Assembly ® methodology, which is a bottom-up process-based approach to estimating factory costs. Multiple annual production rates are reported to project high-volume costs relevant to mature markets.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Low cost processes for silicon

The paper describes the multiple process development of low cost processes for manufacture of silicon. A support program includes subtasks for the modeling of reactions and reactors, chemical engineering and solid-state physics studies, and development of impurity concentration measurement procedures. The preliminary economic analyses indicate total product costs ranging from $5.00 to $8.73/kg based on 1000 MT/yr plants. In the studies of impurity effects, a model which considers that degradations of solar cell performance by impurities are primarily due to decreases in base diffusion length was constructed from experimental data.

Lutwack, R.↗

Astronomical X-Ray Optics Using Mono-Crystalline Silicon: High Resolution, Light Weight, and Low Cost

X-ray astronomy critically depends on X-ray optics. The capability of an X-ray telescope is largelydetermined by the point-spread function (PSF) and the photon-collection area of its mirrors, the same astelescopes in other wavelength bands. Since an X-ray telescope must be operated above the atmosphere inspace and that X-rays reflect only at grazing incidence, X-ray mirrors must be both lightweight and thin, bothof which add significant technical and engineering challenge to making an X-ray telescope. In this paper wereport our effort at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) of developing an approach to making an Xraymirror assembly that can be significantly better than the mirror assembly currently flying on the ChandraX-ray Observatory in each of the three aspects: PSF, effective area per unit mass, and production cost per uniteffective area. Our approach is based on the precision polishing of mono-crystalline silicon to fabricate thinand lightweight X-ray mirrors of the highest figure quality and micro-roughness, therefore, having thepotential of achieving diffraction-limited X-ray optics. When successfully developed, this approach will makeimplementable in the 2020s and 2030s many X-ray astronomical missions that are currently on the drawingboard, including sounding rocket flights such as OGRE, Explorer class missions such as STAR-X andFORCE, Probe class missions such as AXIS, TAP, and HEX-P, as well as large missions such as Lynx.

Zhang, William W.↗

Evaluation of Performance Variables to Accelerate the Deployment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels at a Regional Scale

An increase in jet fuel consumption and its associated emissions across the world have led to the need for alternative technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). One option to produce SAFs is to utilize waste or biomass-based feedstocks that has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% or more compared to conventional jet fuel. However, there is a lack of understanding of how the synergistic effects of key performance variables could hinder or help the deployment of aviation fuels on a regional scale. Here, we assess the implications of key variables-including type and quantity of waste/biomass feedstock availability near the airport, cost of SAF production, life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, policies, and fuel/infrastructure logistics-on the deployment of SAF at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. We consider three ASTM International-approved SAF technologies (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids, Fischer-Tropsch, and Alcohol to Jet) that can be blended up to 50% with petroleum-based jet fuel. Results from our analysis show that woody biomass-based Fischer-Tropsch technology has the lowest fuel production costs ($2.31-$2.81/gallon gasoline equivalent) of all pathways, and it reduces life cycle GHG emissions by 86% compared to conventional jet fuel despite the higher availability of crop residues compared to either woody biomass or fats, oils, and greases. Also, infrastructure is available at O'Hare International Airport to blend SAF with Jet A fuel through three terminals directly connected to the airport via pipelines. Our sensitivity analysis shows renewable fuel incentives and feedstock price to be key performance variables affecting the production cost and deployment of SAF.

alcohol-to-jet↗