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At least 109 records · Page 6

Comparison of SSM/I measurements to numerically-simulated cloud and precipitation during ERICA

These investigations focused essentially on the macroscale organization of cloud and precipitation which occurred during the 4th Intensive Observing Period (IOP-4) of the Experiment for Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). This experiment, held off the East Coast of the United States and Canada during the winter of 1989, documented several episodes of rapid cyclonic storm development. Also playing a major role as validation and ground truth in these studies are Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals of precipitable water, total liquid water and ice, generated by other Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) supported investigations. Model simulations produced to date suggest that, while the large-scale atmospheric dynamics was an essential driving mechanism, the role of condensation was crucial in facilitating the exceptionally rapid spinup of the cyclone and the low surface pressure. A model simulation of the precipitation rate at the time of most rapid storm intensification is shown in the accompanying figure. Heavier precipitation rates in the crescent shaped region are associated with deep convection along the leading edge of a dry intrusion behind the surface low. The majority of precipitation in the stratiform region to the northeast involved the production of ice with deposition from vapor to ice being the dominant process of growth. Some small amount of mixed phase cloudiness was present. Model condensate distributions matched well with SSM/I observations. The accompanying SSM/I imagery which delineates areas of large (greater than several hundred micron effective radius) precipitating ice over the ocean suggests that the model has done well in capturing the essential mechanisms responsible for the horizontal distribution of precipitation.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Response of the Earth's Magnetosphere to Changes in the Solar Wind

The solar wind couples to the magnetosphere via dynamic pressure and electric field. Pressure establishes the size and shape of the system, while the electric field transfers energy, mass, and momentum to the magnetosphere. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is antiparallel to the dayside magnetic field, magnetic reconnection connects the IMF to the dipole field. Solar wind transport of the newly opened field lines to the nightside creates an internal convection system. These open field lines must ultimately be closed by reconnection on the nightside. For many decades, it was thought that a magnetospheric substorm was the process for accomplishing this and that all magnetic activity was a consequence of substorms. It is now recognized that there are a variety of modes of response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. In this paper, we briefly describe these modes and the conditions under which they occur. They include substorms, pseudo-breakups, poleward boundary intensifications (PBI), steady magnetospheric convection (SMC), sawtooth injection events, magnetic storms, high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activities (HILDCAAs), and storm-time activations. There are numerous explanations for these different phenomena, some of which do not involve magnetic reconnection. However, we speculate that it is possible to interpret each mode in terms of differences in the way magnetic reconnection occurs on the nightside.

McPherron, Robert L.↗

Applications of satellite image processing to the analysis of Amazonian cultural ecology

This paper examines the application of satellite image processing towards identifying and comparing resource exploitation among indigenous Amazonian peoples. The use of statistical and heuristic procedures for developing land cover/land use classifications from Thematic Mapper satellite imagery will be discussed along with actual results from studies of relatively small (100 - 200 people) settlements. Preliminary research indicates that analysis of satellite imagery holds great potential for measuring agricultural intensification, comparing rates of tropical deforestation, and detecting changes in resource utilization patterns over time.

Behrens, Clifford A.↗

Combining Livestock Production Information in a Process-Based Vegetation Model to Reconstruct the History of Grassland Management

Grassland management type (grazed or mown) and intensity (intensive or extensive) play a crucial role in the greenhouse gas balance and surface energy budget of this biome, both at field scale and at large spatial scale. However, global gridded historical information on grassland management intensity is not available. Combining modelled grass-biomass productivity with statistics of the grass-biomass demand by livestock, we reconstruct gridded maps of grassland management intensity from 1901 to 2012. These maps include the minimum area of managed vs. maximum area of unmanaged grasslands and the fraction of mown vs. grazed area at a resolution of 0.5deg by 0.5deg. The grass-biomass demand is derived from a livestock dataset for 2000, extended to cover the period 19012012. The grass-biomass supply (i.e. forage grass from mown grassland and biomass grazed) is simulated by the process-based model ORCHIDEE-GM driven by historical climate change, risingCO2 concentration, and changes in nitrogen fertilization. The global area of managed grassland obtained in this study increases from 6.1 x 10(exp 6) km(exp 2) in 1901 to 12.3 x 10(exp 6) kmI(exp 2) in 2000, although the expansion pathway varies between different regions. ORCHIDEE-GM also simulated augmentation in global mean productivity and herbage-use efficiency over managed grassland during the 20th century, indicating a general intensification of grassland management at global scale but with regional differences. The gridded grassland management intensity maps are model dependent because they depend on modelled productivity. Thus specific attention was given to the evaluation of modelled productivity against a series of observations from site-level net primary productivity (NPP) measurements to two global satellite products of gross primary productivity (GPP) (MODIS-GPP and SIF data). Generally, ORCHIDEE-GM captures the spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and inter-annual variability of grassland productivity at global scale well and thus is appropriate for global applications presented here.

Livestock dataset↗

Environmental Forcing of Super Typhoon Paka's (1997) Latent Heat Structure

The distribution and intensity of total (i.e., combined stratified and convective processes) rainrate/latent heat release (LHR) were derived for tropical cyclone Paka during the period 9-21 December, 1997 from the F-10, F-11, F-13, and F-14 Defense Meteorological Satellite Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission Microwave Imager observations. These observations were frequent enough to capture three episodes of inner core convective bursts that preceded periods of rapid intensification and a convective rainband (CRB) cycle. During these periods of convective bursts, satellite sensors revealed that the rainrates/LHR: 1) increased within the inner eye wall region; 2) were mainly convectively generated (nearly a 65% contribution), 3) propagated inwards; 4) extended upwards within the middle and upper-troposphere, and 5) became electrically charged. These factors may have caused the eye wall region to become more buoyant within the middle and upper-troposphere, creating greater cyclonic angular momentum, and, thereby, warming the center and intensifying the system. Radiosonde measurements from Kwajalein Atoll and Guam, sea surface temperature observations, and the European Center for Medium Range Forecast analyses were used to examine the necessary and sufficient condition for initiating and maintaining these inner core convective bursts. For example, the necessary conditions such as the atmospheric thermodynamics (i.e., cold tropopause temperatures, moist troposphere, and warm SSTs [greater than 26 deg]) suggested that the atmosphere was ideal for Paka's maximum potential intensity (MPI) to approach super-typhoon strength. Further, Paka encountered weak vertical wind shear (less than 15 m/s ) before interacting with the westerlies on 21 December. The sufficient conditions, on the other hand, appeared to have some influence on Paka's convective burst, but the horizontal moisture flux convergence values in the outer core were weaker than some of the previously examined tropical cyclones. Also, the upper tropospheric outflow generation of eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence was 4D much less than that found during moderate tropical cyclone/trough interaction. These results indicated how important the external necessary condition and the internal forcing (i.e., CRB cycle) were in generating Paka's convective bursts as compared to the external sufficient forcing mechanisms found in higher latitude tropical cyclones. Later, as Paka began to interact with the westerlies, both the necessary (i.e., strong vertical shear and colder SSTs) and sufficient (i.e., dry air intrusion) external forcing mechanisms helped to decrease Paka's rainrate.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Energy Characteristics of Auroral Electron Precipitation: A Comparison of Substorms and Pressure Pulse Related Auroral Activity

The Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observes auroral responses to incident solar wind pressure pulses and interplanetary shocks such as those associated with coronal mass ejections. The arrival of a CME pressure pulse at the front of the magnetosphere results in highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions and a substantial increase in both dayside and nightside auroral precipitation. Our observations show a simultaneous brightening over broad areas of the dayside and nightside aurora in response to a pressure pulse, indicating that more magnetospheric regions participate as sources for auroral precipitation than during isolated substorms. We estimate the average energies of incident auroral electrons using Polar UVI images and compare the precipitation energies during pressure pulse associated events to those during isolated auroral substorms. Electron precipitation during substorms has average energies greater than 10 keV and is structured both in local time and magnetic latitude. For auroral intensifications following the arrival of a pressure pulse or interplanetary shock, electron precipitation is less spatially structured and has greater ux of lower energy electrons (Eave _ 7 keV) than during isolated substorm, onsets. The average energies of the precipitating electrons inferred from UVI are consistent with those measured in-situ by the FAST spacecraft. These observations quantify the differences between global and local auroral precipitation processes and will provide a valuable experimental check for models of sudden storm commencements and magnetospheric response to perturbations in the solar wind.

Chua, D.↗

Evidence for particle acceleration during magnetospheric substorms

Magnetospheric substorms represent the episodic dissipation of energy stored in the geomagnetic tail that was previously extracted from the solar wind. This energy release produces activity throughout the entire magnetosphere-ionosphere system, and it results in a wide variety of phenomena such as auroral intensifications and the generation of new current systems. All of these phenomena involve the acceleration of particles, sometimes up to several MeV. We present a brief overview of substorm phenomenology. We then review some of the evidence for particle acceleration in Earth's magnetosphere during substorms. Such in-situ observations in this most accessible of all cosmic plasma domains may hold important clues to understanding acceleration processes in more distant astrophysical systems.

Lopez, Ramon E.↗

The impact of latent heat release on synoptic-scale vertical motions and the development of an extratropical cyclone system

This study investigates the influence of stable and convective latent heat release on synoptic-scale vertical motions and the corresponding evolution of an extratropical cyclone during a 48 h period of strong development. The cyclone's early evolution was dominated by dry dynamical processes. By midway through the period, however, forcing by latent heat release accounted for over 50 percent of the upward vertical motions, with the convective component dominating. The cyclone's development was most intense during the second 24 h, despite a decrease in latent heat release. During the latter period, the reduced direct latent heat influence may have been augmented by an indirect influence, in which pre-existing dry dynamical forcing was enhanced by diabatic intensification of vorticity and thermal gradients.

Smith, P. J.↗

Excitation of turbulence by density waves

A nonlinear system describes the microdynamical state of turbulence that is excited by density waves. It consists of an equation of propagation and a master equation. A group-scaling generates the scaled equations of many interacting groups of distribution functions. The two leading groups govern the transport processes of evolution and eddy diffusivity. The remaining sub-groups represent the relaxation for the approach of diffusivity to equilibrium. In strong turbulence, the sub-groups disperse themselves and the ensemble acts like a medium that offers an effective damping to close the hierarchy. The kinetic equation of turbulence is derived. It calculates the eddy viscosity and identifies the effective damping of the assumed medium self-consistently. It formulates the coupling mechanism for the intensification of the turbulent energy at the expense of the wave energy, and the transfer mechanism for the cascade. The spectra of velocity and density fluctuations find the power law k sup-2 and k sup-4, respectively.

Tichen, C. M.↗

The Impact of TRMM on Mesoscale Model Simulation of Super Typhoon Paka

Tropical cyclone Paka formed during the first week of December 1997 and underwent three periods of rapid intensification over the following two weeks. During one of these periods, which initiated early on December 10, Paka's Dvorak-measured windspeed increased from 23 to 60 m/s over a 48-hr period. On December 18, during the last rapid deepening episode, Paka became a supertyphoon with a maximum wind speed of about 80 m/s. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (135, 45 and 15 km horizontal resolution) will be used to simulate supertyphoon Paka. We performed two runs initialized with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data sets. The first GEOS data set does not incorporate either TRMM (tropical rainfall measuring mission satellite) or SSM/I (sensor microwave imager) observed rainfall fields into the GEOS's assimilation system while the second one does. Preliminary results show that the MM5 simulated surface pressure deepened by more than 25 mb (45 km resolution domain) in the run initialized with the GEOS data set incorporating TRMM and SSM/I derived rainfall, compared to the one initialized without. However, the track and precipitation patterns are quite similar between the runs. In our presentation, we will show the impact of TRMM rainfall upon the MM5 simulation of Paka at various horizontal resolutions. We will also examine the physical processes associated with initial explosive development by comparing MM5 simulated rainfall and latent heat release. In addition, budget (vorticity, PV, momentum and heat) calculations and sensitivity tests will be performed to examine the upper-tropospheric and SST mechanisms responsible for the explosive development of Paka.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Dayside Proton Aurora: Comparisons between Global MHD Simulations and Image Observations

The IMAGE mission provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of current global models of the solar wind interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere. In particular, images of proton auroras from the Far Ultraviolet Instrument (FUV) onboard the IMAGE spacecraft are well suited to support investigations of the response of the Earth's magnetosphere to interplanetary disturbances. Accordingly, we have modeled two events that occurred on June 8 and July 28, 2000, using plasma and magnetic field parameters measured upstream of the bow shock as input to three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. This paper begins with a discussion of images of proton auroras from the FUV SI-12 instrument in comparison with the simulation results. The comparison showed a very good agreement between intensifications in the auroral emissions measured by FUV SI-12 and the enhancement of plasma flows into the dayside ionosphere predicted by the global simulations. Subsequently, the IMAGE observations are analyzed in the context of the dayside magnetosphere's topological changes in magnetic field and plasma flows inferred from the simulation results. Finding include that the global dynamics of the auroral proton precipitation patterns observed by IMAGE are consistent with magnetic field reconnection occurring as a continuous process while the iMF changes in direction and the solar wind dynamic pressure varies. The global simulations also indicate that some of the transient patterns observed by IMAGE are consistent with sporadic reconnection processes. Global merging patterns found in the simulations agree with the antiparallel merging model. though locally component merging might broaden the merging region, especially in the region where shocked solar wind discontinuities first reach the magnetopause. Finally, the simulations predict the accretion of plasma near the bow shock in the regions threaded by newly open field lines on which plasma flows into the dayside ionosphere are enhanced. Overall the results of these initial comparisons between global MHD simulation results and IMAGE observations emphasize the interplay between reconnection and dynamic pressure processes at the dayside magnetopause. as well as the intricate connection between the bow shock and the auroral region.

Berchem, J.↗

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗

Midtail plasma flows and the relationship to near-Earth substorm activity: A case study

Recent simulations of magnetotail reconnection have pointed to a link between plasma flows, dipolarization, and the substorm current wedge. In particular, Hesse and Birn (1991) have proposed that earthward jetting of plasma from the reconnection region transports flux into the near-Earth region. At the inner edge of the plasma sheet this flux piles up, producing a dipolarization of the magnetic field. The vorticity produced by the east-west deflection of the flow at the inner edge of the plasma sheet gives rise to field-aligned currents that have region 1 polarity. Thus in this scenario the earthward flow from the reconnection region produces the dipolarization ad the current wedge in a self-consistent fashion. In this study we examine observations made on April 8, 1985 by the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers (AMPTE)/Ion Release Module (IRM), the geosynchronous satellites 1979-053, 1983-019, and 1984-037, and Syowa station, as well as AE. This event is unique because IRM was located near the neutral sheet in the midnight sector for am extended period of time. Ground data show that there was ongoing activity in the IRM local time sector for several hours, beginning at 1800 UT and reaching a crescendo at 2300 UT. This activity was also accompanied by energetic particle variations, including injections, at geosynchronous orbit in the nighttime sector. Significantly, there were no fast flows at the neutral sheet until the great intensification of activity at 2300 UT. At that time, IRM recorded fast eartheard flow simultaneous with a dipolatization of the magetic field. We conclude that while the aforementioned scenario for the creation of the current wedge encounters serious problems explaining the earlier activity, the observations at 2300 UT are consistent with the scenario of Hesse and Birn (1191). On that basis it is argued that the physics of substorms is not exclusively rooted in the development of a global tearing mode. Processes at the inner edge of the cross-tail current that cause a disruption of the current and a consequent dipolarization and current wedge may be unrelated to the formation of a macroscale reconnection region. Thus the global evolution of a substorm is probably a complicated superposition of such processes operating on a very localized scale and a global macroscale process that allows for such things as releasing te energy stored in lobe flux and creation of plasmoids.

Lopez, R. E.↗

Numerical prediction of the Mid-Atlantic states cyclone of 18-19 February 1979

A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLAS model, and to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the cyclogenesis. The GLAS model correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. Repeated without surface heat and moisture fluxes, the model failed to predict any cyclone development. An extended range forecast, a forecast from the NMC analysis interpolated to the GLAS grid, and a forecast from the GLAS analysis with the surface moisture flux excluded predicted weak coastal low development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper level divergence in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗

Examining Sub-Flash Properties of Lightning from GLM for Tracking and Intensification Characterization of Thunderstorms

Current methodologies for operational use of lightning are developed using ground-based networks. Lightning detectors measure different characteristics of the flash, thus they don't observe the same lightning event in the same manner: i.e., flash rates from NDLN (National Lightning Detection Network (R)) will typically not match flash rates from GLM (Geostationary Lightning Mapper) because each sensor is measuring different characteristics (EM (Electromagnetic) radiation vs. optical). Resolution/timeliness of space-based sensor data will change our "rules of thumb" for operational use: Lightning safety - how does the 2D mapping of lightning enhance lightning safety metrics; Is the super-fast input of data (20s) useful for decision-makers, including (non-AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) -users) non-mets?

lightning jump↗

Doppler-radar observation of the evolution of downdrafts in convective clouds

A detailed analysis of the 20 July 1977 thunderstorm complex which formed and evolve over the South Park region in Central Colorado is presented. The storm was extensively analyzed using multiple Doppler radar and surface mesonet data, developed within an environment having very weak wind shear. The storm owed its intensification to the strength of the downdraft, which was nearly coincident with the region where the cloud had grown. The noteworthy features of this storm were its motion to the right of the cloud-level winds, its multicellular nature and discrete propagation, its north-south orientation, and its relatively large storm size and high reflectivity factor (55 dBZ). This scenario accounts for the observed mesoscale and cloud-scale event. A line of convergence was generated at the interface between the easterly upslope winds and westerly winds. During stage II, the convergence line subsequently propagated down the slopes of the Mosquito Range, and was the main forcing mechanism for the development of updraft on the west flank of the storm. The formation of downdraft on the eastern side of updraft blacked surface inflow, and created a detectable gust front. As the original downdraft intensified, the accumulation of evaporatively-chilled air caused the intensification of the mesohigh, which likely destroyed the earlier convergence line and created a stronger convergence line to the east, which forced up-lifting of the moist, westerly inflow and caused the formation of updraft to the east. An organized downdraft circulation, apparently maintained by precipitation drag and evaporational cooling, was responsible in sustaining a well-defined gust front. The storm attained its highest intensity as a consequence of merging with a neighboring cloud. The interaction of downdrafts or gust fronts from two intense cells appeared to be the primary mechanism of this merging process as suggested by Simpson et al. (1980). The merging process coincided with more rain than occurred in unmerged echoes.

Motallebi, N.↗

Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Maize↗