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Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.
A reconstruction algorithm for partially coherent x-ray computed tomography (XCT) including Fresnel diffraction is developed and applied to an optical fiber. The algorithm is applicable to a high-resolution tube-based laboratory-scale x-ray tomography instrument. The computing time is only a few times longer than the projective counterpart. The algorithm is used to reconstruct, with projections and diffraction, a tilt series acquired at the micrometer scale of a graded-index optical fiber using maximum likelihood and a Bayesian method based on the work of Bouman and Sauer. The inclusion of Fresnel diffraction removes some reconstruction artifacts and use of a Bayesian prior probability distribution removes others, resulting in a substantially more accurate reconstruction.
This manuscript proposes a novel information-theoretic approach to the quantification of experimental relevance, i.e., coverage, to achieve optimal data assimilation results for nuclear engineering applications. Specifically, this work posits the need for a new metric, called coverage (q C ) of an application’s quantity of interest, i.e., eigenvalue or power peaking for an advanced reactor concept, defined herein as the theoretically maximum achievable reduction in the quantity’s uncertainty given measurements from a pool of experiments in a manner that is independent of the data assimilation procedure employed. Currently, reduction in a quantity’s uncertainty is strongly biased by the underlying assumptions of the assimilation procedure to account for the under-determined nature of such problems and the similarity criterion employed to identify relevant experiments. To address this challenge, this work has developed a coverage metric, q C , based on mutual information, which establishes a new conceptual framework for assessing coverage, one that is independent of the model parameters and responses degree of variations in both the experimental and application domains, i.e., linear vs non-linear, and their prior uncertainty distributions, i.e., Gaussian vs. non-Gaussian. The q C is an entropic measure capable of addressing coverage for general nonlinear problems with non-Gaussian uncertainties and inclusive of the measurement uncertainties from multiple experiments. Numerical experiments from manufactured analytical problems as well as a set of benchmarks from the ICSBEP handbook are employed to demonstrate its theoretical and practical performance as compared to the c k -based experiment selection methodology, commonly employed in the neutronic community. The manuscript then employs other well-known adaptations to existing data assimilation methodologies for nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems capable of achieving the coverage posited by q C .
We present a maximum a posteriori (MAP) classifier for classifying multifrequency, multilook, single polarization SAR intensity data into regions or ensembles of pixels of homogeneous and similar radar backscatter characteristics. A model for the prior joint distribution of the multifrequency SAR intensity data is combined with a Markov random field for representing the interactions between region labels to obtain an expression for the posterior distribution of the region labels given the multifrequency SAR observations. The maximization of the posterior distribution yields Bayes's optimum region labeling or classification of the SAR data or its MAP estimate. The performance of the MAP classifier is evaluated by using computer-simulated multilook SAR intensity data as a function of the parameters in the classification process. Multilook SAR intensity data are shown to yield higher classification accuracies than one-look SAR complex amplitude data. The MAP classifier is extended to the case in which the radar backscatter from the remotely sensed surface varies within the SAR image because of incidence angle effects. The results obtained illustrate the practicality of the method for combining SAR intensity observations acquired at two different frequencies and for improving classification accuracy of SAR data.
Students, young and old, find extraterrestrial life one of the most intriguing of all science topics. A curriculum development project co-funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA, and administered by the SETI Institute, is underway to develop and test third through ninth grade science lessons that draw upon this fascination to focus student interest on science and mathematics. Individual lessons are designed by teachers and curriculum developers, tested in classrooms, revised and re-tested prior to distribution. A series of guides, each containing 10 to 15 lessons, will be finished by late summer 1994.
A multichannel passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithm is developed. Bayes theorem is used to combine statistical information from numerical cloud models with forward radiative transfer modeling. A multivariate lognormal prior probability distribution contains the covariance information about hydrometeor distribution that resolves the nonuniqueness inherent in the inversion process. Hydrometeor profiles are retrieved by maximizing the posterior probability density for each vector of observations. The hydrometeor profile retrieval method is tested with data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz) of convection over ocean and land in Florida. The CP-2 multiparameter radar data are used to verify the retrieved profiles. The results show that the method can retrieve approximate hydrometeor profiles, with larger errors over land than water. There is considerably greater accuracy in the retrieval of integrated hydrometeor contents than of profiles. Many of the retrieval errors are traced to problems with the cloud model microphysical information, and future improvements to the algorithm are suggested.
Microorganisms in our living environments are unavoidable. A community of microbes arrived in space with the delivery of the first element of the International Space Station (ISS), attached to hardware and on the bodies of the humans tasked with the initial assembly missions. The risk that microorganisms could cause adverse effects in the health of both the human occupants of the ISS as well as the physical integrity of the station environment and life support systems has been both a driver and a function of engineering and operational controls. Scientists and engineers at NASA have gone to extensive measures to control microbial growth at levels safe for the crewmembers and the spacecraft environment. Many of these measures were initiated with the design of the spacecraft and its systems. Materials used in the ISS were tested for resistance to fungi, such as mold and a paint with a fungus-killing chemical was also used. Controlling the humidity of the air in the Station is also an effective way of discouraging microbe growth. The breathing air is reconditioned by the Environmental Control Life Support System (ECLSS) prior to distribution, utilizing High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filtration. Requirements restricting the accumulation of water condensate in the air handlers and habitable volume of the ISS were other safeguards added. Water for drinking and food rehydration is disinfected or filtered. A robust in-flight housekeeping regimen for the ISS significantly reduces inappropriate growth of microorganisms and includes a regular cleaning of accessible surfaces with disinfectant wipes. Most of these requirements were suggested by microbiologists to mitigate and possibly prevent many microbiological risks. In addition to these controls, before flight monitoring and analyses of the cabin air, exposed surfaces, water and food, consumables, and crew members are conducted to mitigate microbial risk to the crew and spacecraft. Many microbial risks are much easier to identify and resolve before launch than during space flight. Although the focus has been on prevention of microbiologically related, not all problems can be anticipated. A number of microbial anomalies have occurred on ISS. This paper will discuss the occurrences, root-cause investigations, and mitigation steps taken to remediate the contamination.
It is well known that failure of a material is a locally driven event. In the case of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), significant variations in the microstructure of the composite exist and their significance on both deformation and life response need to be assessed. Examples of these variations include changes in the fiber tow shape, tow shifting/nesting and voids within and between tows. In the present work, the influence of scale specific architectural features of woven ceramic composite are examined stochastically at both the macroscale (woven repeating unit cell (RUC)) and structural scale (idealized using multiple RUCs). The recently developed MultiScale Generalized Method of Cells methodology is used to determine the overall deformation response, proportional elastic limit (first matrix cracking), and failure under tensile loading conditions and associated probability distribution functions. Prior results showed that the most critical architectural parameter to account for is weave void shape and content with other parameters being less in severity. Current results show that statistically only the post-elastic limit region (secondary hardening modulus and ultimate tensile strength) is impacted by local uncertainties both at the macro and structural level.
A class of quantum-classical hybrid machine-learning algorithms can be obtained by integrating classical deep generative models with quantum probability distributions as 'priors' over their latent variables. We introduce a hybrid implementation of variational autoencoders (QVAE) and also present a technique to hybridize flow-based invertible generative models. We demonstrate the use of D-Wave quantum annealers as physical simulators of quantum Boltzmann machines (QBM) to perform quantum-assisted training of QVAE. Latent-space QBM develop slowly mixing modes, opening a path to obtain quantum advantage in generative modeling with available quantum devices.
The Deep Space Science Vessel (DSSV) is a conceptual design of a very large spacecraft intended as a mobile microgravity science platform. It represents an effort to conceptualize the systems and internal architectures needed to support a forty-eight-person crew for multi-year missions throughout the inner solar system and potentially beyond. The general arrangement of the DSSV is a modular spacecraft. Considering only the pressurized, habitable elements, the DSSV includes two large pressurized modules (Hab and Lab) docked together along with eight smaller node modules completing the habitable configuration. The Hab and Lab modules are docked side by side, with the longitudinal axes parallel to each other and a single docking port connecting them. A node module is docked to each dome on the Hab and Lab modules, such that the two small node modules on each end of the large Hab and Lab domes are docked both to each other and to the Hab and Lab. This creates a “racetrack” translation path on the interior. The other four node modules are docked at the center of the Hab and Lab modules, two on each side, creating another “racetrack” translation path perpendicular to the first one. The DSSV has a generally vertical orientation. Within the Hab and Lab modules the decks are perpendicular to the longitudinal axis. The node modules are oriented with their longitudinal axes perpendicular to those of the Hab and Lab modules, so the nodes have a horizontal internal orientation. Decks are numbered one through nine, with decks two and eight representing the “top” and “bottom” domes of the Hab and Lab modules. The Hab Module decks encompass the ship’s galley, crew quarters, waste, hygiene, portions of crew exercise, and group recreation. The Lab Module contains food production facilities, the life science lab, the ship’s infirmary, the physical science lab, and the maintenance and fabrication workshop. The Node Modules serve a number of different functions. The two Exercise Nodes are docked to deck five of both the Hab and Lab modules and contain most of the aerobic and resistive exercise devices. Also docked to deck five but on the opposite side of the Hab and Lab modules are the Observation Deck and Space Café. These two node modules provide social gathering space for small numbers of crew. The Mission Operations Node is on deck nine directly above the Galley and contains spacecraft monitoring and commanding capabilities. Docked to it is the EVA Operations Node, which contains suit maintenance and storage. (The airlock is a separate, external element docked to the EVA Operations Node.) The Subsystems Node is on deck one beneath the maintenance and fabrication workshop. Docked to it is the Stowage Node. This node does not house DSSV primary stowage, but is a staging point where stowage brought in from logistics modules can be sorted, unpacked, or repacked as needed prior to distribution to the appropriate sections of the spacecraft.
In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)
Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.
Current methods to retrieve optically relevant properties from ocean color observations do not explicitly make use of prior knowledge about property distributions. Here we implement a simplified Bayesian approach that takes into account prior probability distributions on two sets of five optically relevant parameters, and conduct a retrieval of these parameters using hyperspectral simulated water-leaving reflectances. We focus specifically on the ability of the model to distinguish between two optically similar phytoplankton taxa, diatoms and Noctiluca scintillans. The inversion retrieval gives most-likely concentrations and uncertainty estimates, and we find that the model is able to probabilistically predict the occurrence of Noctiluca scintillans blooms using these metrics. We discuss how this method can be expanded to include a priori covariances between different parameters, and show the effect of varying measurement uncertainty and spectral resolution on Noctiluca scintillans bloom predictions.
Statistical methods for classification of data from multiple data sources are investigated and compared to neural network models. A problem with using conventional multivariate statistical approaches for classification of data of multiple types is in general that a multivariate distribution cannot be assumed for the classes in the data sources. Another common problem with statistical classification methods is that the data sources are not equally reliable. This means that the data sources need to be weighted according to their reliability but most statistical classification methods do not have a mechanism for this. This research focuses on statistical methods which can overcome these problems: a method of statistical multisource analysis and consensus theory. Reliability measures for weighting the data sources in these methods are suggested and investigated. Secondly, this research focuses on neural network models. The neural networks are distribution free since no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data is needed. This is an obvious advantage over most statistical classification methods. The neural networks also automatically take care of the problem involving how much weight each data source should have. On the other hand, their training process is iterative and can take a very long time. Methods to speed up the training procedure are introduced and investigated. Experimental results of classification using both neural network models and statistical methods are given, and the approaches are compared based on these results.
A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.
We present an analysis of DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) that incorporates Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors into Full-Shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum based on cosmological perturbation theory (PT). By leveraging physical insights from the galaxy-halo connection, these HOD-informed priors on nuisance parameters substantially mitigate projection effects in extended cosmological models that allow for dynamical dark energy. The resulting credible intervals now encompass the posterior maximum from the baseline analysis using gaussian priors, eliminating a significant posterior shift observed in baseline studies. In the ΛCDM framework, a combined DESI DR1 FS information and constraints from the DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) — including Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index — yields Ω m = 0.2994 ± 0.0090 and σ 8 = 0.836$^{+0.024}_{-0.027}$, representing improvements of approximately 4% and 23% over the baseline analysis, respectively. For the w 0 w a CDM model, our results from various data combinations are highly consistent, with all configurations converging to a region with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This convergence not only suggests intriguing hints of dynamical dark energy but also underscores the robustness of our HOD-informed prior approach in delivering reliable cosmological constraints.
The error variance of the process prior multivariate normal distributions of the parameters of the models are assumed to be specified, prior probabilities of the models being correct. A rule for termination of sampling is proposed. Upon termination, the model with the largest posterior probability is chosen as correct. If sampling is not terminated, posterior probabilities of the models and posterior distributions of the parameters are computed. An experiment was chosen to maximize the expected Kullback-Leibler information function. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were performed to investigate large and small sample behavior of the sequential adaptive procedure.
Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.