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NASA NTRS1981

Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model

The GLAS climate model is a general circulation model based on the primitive equations in sigma coordinates on a global domain in the presence of orography. The model incorporates parameterizations of the effects of radiation, convection, large scale latent heat release, turbulent and boundary layer fluxes, and ground hydrology. Winter and summer simulations were carried out with this model, and the resulting data are compared to observations.

Shukla, J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A numerical evaluation of TIROS-N and NOAA-6 analyses in a high resolution limited area model

Vertical temperature profiles derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 radiance measurements were used to create separate analyses for the period 0000 GMT 6 January to 0000 GMT 7 January 1980. The 0000 GMT 6 January satellite analyses and a conventional analysis were used to initialize and run the University of Wisconsin's version of the Australian Region Primitive Equations model. Forecasts based on conventional analyses were used to evaluate the forecasts based only on satellite upper air data. The forecasts based only on TIROS-N or NOAA-6 data did reasonably well in locating the main trough and ridge positions. The satellite initial analyses and forecasts revealed errors correlated to the synoptic situation. The trough in both TIROS-N and NOAA-6 forecasts which was initially too warm remained too warm as it propagated eastward during the forecast period. Thus, it is unlikely that the operational satellite data will improve forecasts in a data dense region. However, in regions of poor data coverage, the satellite data should have a beneficial effect on numerical forecasts.

Derber, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Influence of the Tibetian Plateau on cumulative and diurnal changes of weather and climate in summer

An investigation of the dynamic and thermodynamic influences of the Tibetian Plateau on the monsoon circulation in southeastern Asia and China is reported. A five-day primitive equation numerical model was used to simulate the influences of the high mountains in the 0-180 deg E and 25-55 deg N region on a typical July day. The equations predicted horizontal motion, heat, the water vapor mixing ratio, and surface pressure. Consideration was given to solar and longwave radiation and the release of latent heat by deep cumulus clouds. A net warming over the Plateau as opposed to the surrounding areas was found to lead to vertical air ascent and the establishment of strong summer monsoon circulation to the south. It is noted that the grid was too coarse to adequately describe the distribution of precipitation on the steep mountains.

Kuo, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil - Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model

The establishment of a thermally direct local circulation which has its ascending branch at about 10 deg N and its descending branch over northeast Brazil and the adjoining oceanic region is proposed as a possible mechanism for the occurrence of severe droughts over this Brazilian region. The driving for this anomalous circulation is provided by enhanced moist convection due to the effect of warmer sea surface anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic and cooling associated with colder sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally-controlled and thermally-driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere, and a series of numerical experiments are carried out to test the sensitivity of the Goddard Laboratory's model to prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic.

Moura, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A model study of Fuego volcanic aerosol dispersion in the lower stratosphere

A zonally averaged time-dependent primitive equation model is used to simulate the dispersion of both a carbon 14 injection and the volcanic aerosol from the 1974 Fuego eruption. It is noted that both injections occurred at low latitudes to midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The eddy flux terms, which account for the major portion of the transport in the lower stratosphere of this model, are specified in a manner similar to that of Harwood and Pyle (1975). Comparisons with data underline the ability of the model to simulate the vertical character of the tracer while maintaining reasonable meridional transport times. For the aerosol study, the simulated 1/e decay time at 37 deg N and for the 16- to 21-km altitude region is 9 months, whereas lidar measurements at the same latitude give a decay time of 8 months. The simulated vertical width at half-maximum for the aerosol tracer at 37 deg N and 19 deg N and for 6 months after the event possesses values of 5.0 km and 3.6 km, respectively, whereas the observed lidar values are 4.4 km and 3.0 km, respectively. The tracer transport to the Southern Hemisphere also is in qualitative agreement with the limited data that are available.

Remsberg, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

An accurate radiative heating and cooling algorithm for use in a dynamical model of the middle atmosphere

The circulation of the middle atmosphere of the earth (15-90 km) is driven by the unequal distribution of net radiative heating. Calculations have shown that local radiative heating is nearly balanced by radiative cooling throughout parts of the stratosphere and mesosphere. The 15 micrometer band of CO2 is the dominant component of the infrared cooling. The present investigation is concerned with an algorithm regarding the involved cooling process. The algorithm was designed for the semispectral primitive equation model of the stratosphere and mesosphere described by Holton and Wehrbein (1980). The model consists of 16 layers, each nominally 5 km thick, between the base of the stratosphere at 100 mb (approximately 16 km) and the base of the thermosphere (approximately 96 km). The considered algorithm provides a convenient means of incorporating cooling due to CO2 into dynamical models of the middle atmosphere.

Wehrbein, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Some effects of global dust storms on the atmospheric circulation of Mars

A zonally symmetric primitive equation modelled on a sphere is used to numerically simulate the Martian atmosphere's response to various dust loads, as well as the ability of its meridional circulation to transport dust globally, where the circulation is driven by heating due to the absorption of solar and IR radiation by dust and CO2, in addition to sensible heat exchange with the ground. A preliminary experiment shows the model distribution of winds and temperature to compare favorably with zonally averaged values from a general circulation model. Experiments simulating the evolution of global dust storms show that dust is effectively transported by the zonal mean circulation, which rapidly intensifies as the dust spreads, and that the basic structure of the circulation is relatively insensitive to details, being mostly dependent on the heating of the tropical and subtropical atmosphere.

Haberle, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A mesoscale sixth-order numerical modelling system

A numerical simulation system is currently under development for NASA which is intended to improve the modeling of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development and atmospheric transport processes. The model utilizes a standard hydrostatic sigma-p coordinate primitive equation set, with x,y-space differencing accurate to eighth order. A three-step dynamic initialization procedure is employed between the analysis of real-time data and grid interpolation. Results of an 18-hour simulation during which synoptic scale cyclogenesis, subsynoptic scale jet streak adjustments, mesoscale convergence zones and tornadic storms were observed have shown the present model to have the potential for simulating the fine-scale structure of features associated with cyclogenesis and intense squall-line development. The mesoscale model was also found to produce less truncation than the NWS LFM model, although a frictionless version of the mesoscale model somewhat overdeepens and overaccelerates features.

Kaplan, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Planetary-scale waves in the Venus atmosphere

Observed wave-like cloud features on Venus, which at times form a Y-like structure which encircles the planet, were modelled numerically. Linearized primitive equations for a shallow, hydrostatic atmosphere are defined, along with upper boundary layer conditions for the 4-6 day periods detected in the atmospheric response to forcing. The basic state of the Venus atmosphere was considered to display variations in static stability and the mean zonal wind as a function of altitude. Forcing was introduced over a wide range of frequencies in order to produce the target oscillation modes. Combination of a midlatitude Rossby wave and an equatorial Kelvin wave was found to yield the observed Y-shape, which could be preserved with nonlinear coupling.

Covey, C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Numerical simulation of the development of mean monsoon circulation in July

Eight different experiments are carried out, ranging from 8 to 20 days, with a primitive equation model consisting of five atmospheric layers and one oceanic layer. The purpose is to investigate the relative importance of radiative heating and deep cumulus condensation, orography, and initial conditions for the development of the mean monsoon circulation from June to July in the 0-180 deg E, 25 deg S - 55 deg N region. Two alternative initial states are used, one based on the observed monthly mean June pressure distribution, the other on the mean June zonal average pressure distribution. Whereas large-scale condensation and actual land and sea distributions are included in every experiment, deep cumulus cone condensation and radiative heating are always taken together. It is found that the means sea level pressure distribution and low-level flow pattern produced by these simulations are in the main determined by the diabatic heating distribution and are influenced somewhat by orography; they are, however, almost independent of the initial state. The low pressure systems are found to develop faster when diurnal variation of solar radiation is allowed for; this is thought to be due mainly to the more vigorous cumulus activity during the day.

Kuo, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Numerical studies of major and minor stratospheric warmings caused by orographic forcing

A primitive equation spectral model using spherical harmonics is formulated to study dynamic interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere in association with sudden stratospheric warmings. Using sigma coordinates for five tropospheric layers and log-pressure coordinates for 26 stratospheric and mesospheric layers, separate model equations for each system are combined to form single matrix governing equations. The gradual introduction of large scale topography to balanced initial states representative of observed mean winter conditions in the Northern Hemisphere is used for the generation of planetary waves during 40-day time integrations. Results of these integrations indicate that stratospheric warmings can be simulated by this orographic forcing and that mean momentum flux divergence due to zonal mean motion appears to be an essential mechanism of these simulated sudden warmings. It was found that the strength of the polar night jet can be a determining factor whether a warming becomes 'major' or 'minor'.

Koermer, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Climate sensitivity with a seasonal cycle energy balance model

The sensitivity of climate which may have a local maximum as the ice cap passes through a midlatitude region where the atmosphere's transport efficiency varies strongly with latitude is examined. This behavior, found in a two level primitive equations climate model forced with annual mean insolation, was reproduced in an energy balance model (EBM) by making the diffusion coefficient a function of latitude. The two level seasonally varying EBM was applied and the global mean surface temperature vs. solar constant for this model are shown and two regions of enhanced sensitivity appear. The snowcover distributions around the year for three cases are shown.

Suarez, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Horizontal energy propagation in a baroclinic atmosphere with meridional and zonal structure

A baroclinic model was developed. The model is linear, steady state, baroclinic (2 level) and based on the primitive equations. The unique features of the model are: (1) The basic state u and T fields are functions of wavelength, theta, and rho, (2) A mean meridional circulation v, w, which may be a function of wavelength, theta, and rho, and p may be included, (3) Dissipation may be a function of theta, wavelength, rho, p (e.g., differ over land and sea). Because the basic state is a function of longitude, the equations are not separable in wavelength and the usual semi-spectral solution procedure is not applicable. The model solutions can be found in a straight forward (brute force) way by discretizing the model equations directly on a wavelength, theta, rho, p grid. There are six dependent (perturbation) variables: u, v, and geopotential at levels 1 and 2. The thermal forcing is prescribed at the intermediate vertical level. The linearized equations may be written.

Youngblut, C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Sampling strategies and four-dimensional assimilation of altimetric data for ocean monitoring and prediction

Numerical experiments using simulated altimeter data were conducted in order to examine the assimilation of altimeter-derived sea surface heights into numerical ocean circulation models. A reduced-gravity, primitive equation circulation model of the Gulf of Mexico was utilized; the Gulf of Mexico was chosen because of its amenability to modeling and the ability of low vertical-mode models to reproduce the observed dynamical features of the Gulf circulation. The simulated data were obtained by flying an imaginary altimeter over the model ocean and sampling the model sea surface just as real altimeter would observe the true ocean. The data were used to initialize the numerical model and the subsequent forecast was compared to the true numerical solution. Results indicate that for a stationary, circular eddy, approximately three to four tracks (either ascending or descending) across the eddy are sufficient to ensure adequate spatial resolution.

Kindle, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A nested-grid limited-area model for short term weather forecasting

The present investigation is concerned with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS), incorporating the sigma-coordinate primitive equations. The present version of this model (MASS 3.0) has 14 vertical layers, with the upper boundary at 100 mb. There are 128 x 96 grid points in each layer. The earlier version of this model (MASS 2.0) has been described by Kaplan et al. (1982). The current investigation provides a summary of major revisions to that version and a description of the parameterization schemes which are presently included in the model. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is considered, taking into account aspects of generalized similarity theory and free convection, the surface energy budget, the surface moisture budget, and prognostic equations for the depth h of the PBL. A cloud model is discussed, giving attention to stable precipitation, and cumulus convection.

Wong, V. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A numerical investigation of the President's Day storm of February 18-19, 1979

The reported investigation is based on the use of a three-dimensional, primitive equation model. The President's Day storm, formed in the Gulf of Mexico as a massive anticyclone, affected the northern states with record-breaking cold temperatures. Attention is given to the physical processes relevant to storm formation, the forecast model, a description of experiments and model forecasts, and model results. An attempt is made to determine the important dynamic processes at work during the evolution of the storm. The jet streak interactions which occurred in the cyclogenetic environment, the effects of cold air damming, and the formation of a strong mesoscale coastal front are found to be of particular interest.

Nappi, A. J.↗