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Energy Management Information Systems Technical Resources Report

Guide supports federal facility staff in understanding, designing, procuring, and implementing Energy Management Information Systems (EMIS) as a valuable component of their portfolio-level energy and water planning and management strategies. As a broad and rapidly evolving family of tools that monitor, analyze, and control building energy use and system performance, EMIS tools present significant opportunities for federal sector energy savings and improved operational performance. EMIS are at the forefront of transforming energy management best practices by providing building owners and operators with well-organized building performance and energy consumption data, enabling a host of analytic capabilities. These capabilities include portfolio-wide energy benchmarking, data visualization, and key performance indicator tracking; automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD); artificial intelligence for predictive analytics and control; automated measurement and verification of energy conservation measures; and supervisory control enabling automated system optimization and demand management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Variable Speed Air-Source Integrated Heat Pump (AS-IHP) Development (Final Report)

Between August 2011 and September 2015, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Nordyne, LLC (now Nortek Global HVAC LLC, NGHVAC) engaged in a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) to develop an air-source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP) system for the US residential market. Two generations of laboratory prototype systems were designed, fabricated, and lab-tested during 2011-2013. Performance maps for the system were developed using the latest research version of the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model, or HPDM, (Rice 1991; Rice and Jackson 2005; Shen et al 2012) as calibrated against the lab test data. These maps were the input to the TRNSYS (SOLAR Energy Laboratory, et al, 2010) system to predict annual performance relative to a baseline suite of equipment meeting minimum efficiency standards in effect in 2006 (combination of 13 SEER air-source heat pump (ASHP) and resistance water heater with Energy Factor (EF) of 0.9). Predicted total annual energy savings, while providing space conditioning and water heating for a tight, well insulated 2600 ft2 (242 m2) house at 5 U.S. locations, ranged from 46 to 61%, averaging 52%, relative to the baseline system (lowest savings at the cold-climate Chicago location). Predicted energy use for water heating was reduced 62 to 76% relative to resistance WH. Based on these lab prototype test and analyses results a field test prototype was designed and fabricated by NGHVAC. The unit was installed in a 2400 ft2 (223 m2) research house in Knoxville, TN and field tested from May 2014 to April 2015. Based on the demonstrated field performance of the AS-IHP prototype and estimated performance of a baseline system operating under the same loads and weather conditions, it was estimated that the prototype would achieve ~40% energy savings relative to the minimum efficiency suite. The estimated WH savings were >60% and SC mode savings were >50%. But estimated SH savings were only about 20%. It is believed that had the test house been better insulated (more like the house used for the savings predictions noted above) and the IHP system nominal capacity been a bit lower that the energy savings estimate would have been closer to 45% or more (similar to the analytical prediction for the cold climate location of Chicago).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF DIFFUSIVE COSMIC-RAY TRANSPORT WITH ADIABATIC FOCUSING

Focused particle transport in a nonuniform large-scale magnetic field is investigated numerically in the case of isotropic pitch-angle scattering. Evolving particle density profiles and distribution moments are computed from solutions of a system of stochastic differential equations, equivalent to the original Fokker-Planck equation for the particle distribution. Conflicting analytical predictions for the transport coefficients in the diffusion limit, independently calculated by Beeck and Wibberenz and Shalchi, are compared with the numerical results. The reasons for the discrepancies among the analytical and numerical treatments, as well as the general limitations of the diffusion model, are discussed. The telegraph equation, derived in a higher-order expansion of the particle distribution function, is shown to describe the particle transport much more accurately than the diffusion model, especially ahead of a moving density pulse.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

(U) A Theoretical Study of Asay Foil Trajectories (V.02)

We consider the trajectory of a generic Asay foil ejecta momentum diagnostic sensor, for scenarios where ejecta are produced at a planar surface and fly ballistically through a perfect vacuum to the sensor. To do so, we build upon a previously established mathematical formalism derived for the analytic study of stationary sensors (i.e., piezopins). First, we derive the momentum conservation equation for the problem, in a form amenable to accelerating sensors, in terms of a generic ejecta source areal mass function (“source model”). This defines an integro-differential equation (IDE) for the foil trajectory. When ejecta production is instantaneous - as is generally assumed in momentum diagnostic data analyses - the IDE leads to an implicit and easily calculable closed-form solution for the foil trajectory in a perfect system, as long as the ejecta particle velocity distribution is twice-integrable. General properties of the instant-production trajectory solution indicate the existence of a boundary condition the particle velocity distribution must satisfy in order for the analytically predicted foil trajectories to be compatible with certain features commonly observed in foil data. This boundary condition is identical to one derived previously from a consideration of piezopin data. Armed with the analytic solution for instant production, we also consider various techniques used to extract time-dependent cumulative ejecta masses from foil trajectories, and derive an expression for the error imposed by using an approximated equation of motion. This analytic trajectory solution furthermore makes it possible to examine the common practice of presenting inferred cumulative ejecta masses as a function of a normalized implied velocity; we derive conditions under which this methodology is and is not meaningful. We also propose a strategy for extending the instant-production trajectory solution to time-dependent source functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The efficiency of Raman amplification in the wavebreaking regime

We compare previous analytic predictions, Vlasov-Maxwell simulations, and particle-in-cell results with a new set of comprehensive one and two dimensional particle-in-cell simulations in an effort to clarify apparent discrepancies between the predictions of different models for the efficiency of Raman amplification in the wavebreaking regime. We find reasonable agreement between our particle-in-cell simulations and previous results from Vlasov-Maxwell simulations and analytic work, suggesting a monotonic decrease in conversion efficiency for increased pump intensities past the wavebreaking threshold.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The razor's edge of collapse: the transition point from lognormal to power-law distributions in molecular clouds

We derive an analytic expression for the transitional column density value (η{sub t}) between the lognormal and power-law form of the probability distribution function (PDF) in star-forming molecular clouds. Our expression for η{sub t} depends on the mean column density, the variance of the lognormal portion of the PDF, and the slope of the power-law portion of the PDF. We show that η{sub t} can be related to physical quantities such as the sonic Mach number of the flow and the power-law index for a self-gravitating isothermal sphere. This implies that the transition point between the lognormal and power-law density/column density PDF represents the critical density where turbulent and thermal pressure balance, the so-called “post-shock density.” We test our analytic prediction for the transition column density using dust PDF observations reported in the literature, as well as numerical MHD simulations of self-gravitating supersonic turbulence with the Enzo code. We find excellent agreement between the analytic η{sub t} and the measured values from the numerical simulations and observations (to within 1.2 A{sub V}). We discuss the utility of our expression for determining the properties of the PDF from unresolved low-density material in dust observations, for estimating the post-shock density, and for determining the H i–H{sub 2} transition in clouds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AI-Enabled Operations at Fermi Complex: Multivariate Time Series Prediction for Outage Prediction and Diagnosis

The Main Control Room of the Fermilab accelerator complex continuously gathers extensive time-series data from thousands of sensors monitoring the beam. However, unplanned events such as trips or voltage fluctuations often result in beam outages, causing operational downtime. This downtime not only consumes operator effort in diagnosing and addressing the issue but also leads to unnecessary energy consumption by idle machines awaiting beam restoration. The current threshold-based alarm system is reactive and faces challenges including frequent false alarms and inconsistent outage-cause labeling. To address these limitations, we propose an AI-enabled framework that leverages predictive analytics and automated labeling. Using data from $2,703$ Linac devices and $80$ operator-labeled outages, we evaluate state-of-the-art deep learning architectures, including recurrent, attention-based, and linear models, for beam outage prediction. Additionally, we assess a Random Forest-based labeling system for providing consistent, confidence-scored outage annotations. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these architectures for beam outage prediction and identify critical gaps that must be addressed to fully harness AI for transitioning downtime handling from reactive to predictive, ultimately reducing downtime and improving decision-making in accelerator management.

Jain, Milan [PNL, Richland] (ORCID:000000021676111↗

The diffusion approximation versus the telegraph equation for modeling solar energetic particle transport with adiabatic focusing. I. Isotropic pitch-angle scattering

The diffusion approximation to the Fokker-Planck equation is commonly used to model the transport of solar energetic particles in interplanetary space. In this study, we present exact analytical predictions of a higher order telegraph approximation for particle transport and compare them with the corresponding predictions of the diffusion approximation and numerical solutions of the full Fokker-Planck equation. We specifically investigate the role of the adiabatic focusing effect of a spatially varying magnetic field on an evolving particle distribution. Comparison of the analytical and numerical results shows that the telegraph approximation reproduces the particle intensity profiles much more accurately than does the diffusion approximation, especially when the focusing is strong. However, the telegraph approximation appears to offer no significant advantage over the diffusion approximation for calculating the particle anisotropy. The telegraph approximation can be a useful tool for describing both diffusive and wave-like aspects of the cosmic-ray transport.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing the edge states of Chern insulators using microwave impedance microscopy

Microwave impedance microscopy (MIM) has been utilized to directly visualize topological edge states in many quantum materials. While the microwave response for conventional metals and insulators can be accurately quantified using simple lumped-element circuits, whose applicability to more exotic quantum systems remain limited. In this work, we present a general theoretical framework of the MIM response of arbitrary quantum materials. Applying it to topological edge states in a Chern insulator predicts an enhanced MIM response at the crystal boundaries due to collective edge magnetoplasmon (EMP) excitations. The unique resonance frequency of these plasmonic modes allows one to disentangle the signatures of topological versus trivial edge states. To benchmark our analytical predictions, we experimentally probe the MIM response of quantum anomalous Hall edge states in a Cr-doped (Bi,Sb) 2 Te 3 topological insulator and perform numerical simulations using a classical formulation of the EMP modes based on this realistic tip-sample geometry, both of which yield results consistent with our theoretical picture. Here we also show how the technique of MIM can be used to quantitatively extract the topological invariant of a Chern insulator and shed light on the microscopic nature of dissipation along the crystal boundaries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Concrete Structure Health Monitoring Using Vibro-acoustic Testing and Machine Learning

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on margins of safety in existing codes. Research is required to deploy online monitoring capability to assess the health of concrete structures in nuclear power plants and perform predictive analytics based on heterogeneous measurements, in order to reduce the operation and maintenance costs. The research effort described in this report focuses on the health monitoring of concrete slabs containing reactive aggregates using the vibro-acoustic modulation (VAM) technique and predictive modeling. The research is developing an approach to enable detection, localization, and estimation of the extent of degradation in concrete slabs due to alkali-silica reaction (ASR). The project outcomes are generic and extendable to other degradation modes in concrete. A concrete slab without reinforcements was cast at Vanderbilt University and cured in aggressive conditions to accelerate ASR degradation. In this report, we develop a methodology for the automation of VAM testing, and the construction of machine learning models to facilitate damage localization in concrete structures. We investigate how machine learning models based on physics simulation data can be effectively utilized for damage localization (damage location and depth) and estimation in a concrete slab specimen. Our study indicates that these models could potentially support damage localization and estimation for NPP structures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Machine-Learning Identification of the Sensing Descriptors Relevant in Molecular Interactions with Metal Nanoparticle-Decorated Nanotube Field-Effect Transistors

We report that carbon nanotube-based field-effect transistors (NTFETs) are ideal sensor devices as they provide rich information regarding carbon nanotube interactions with target analytes and have potential for miniaturization in diverse applications in medical, safety, environmental, and energy sectors. Herein, we investigate chemical detection with cross-sensitive NTFETs sensor arrays comprised of metal nanoparticle-decorated single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs). By combining analysis of NTFET device characteristics with supervised machine-learning algorithms, we have successfully discriminated among five selected purine compounds, adenine, guanine, xanthine, uric acid, and caffeine. Interactions of purine compounds with metal nanoparticle-decorated SWCNTs were corroborated by density functional theory calculations. Furthermore, by testing a variety of prepared as well as commercial solutions with and without caffeine, our approach accurately discerns the presence of caffeine in 95% of the samples with 48 features using a linear discriminant analysis and in 93.4% of the samples with only 11 features when using a support vector machine analysis. Lastly, we also performed recursive feature elimination and identified three NTFET parameters, transconductance, threshold voltage, and minimum conductance, as the most crucial features to analyte prediction accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating switch lifetime in soft-switched single-stage differential-mode SST

The reliability of semiconductor switches in single-stage differential-mode solid-state transformers (DM-SSTs) has not been systematically evaluated under soft-switching operation and realistic grid conditions. This paper presents a switch-level reliability analysis for soft-switched and hard-switched DM-SST configurations by integrating converter-specific power loss modeling with empirical lifetime prediction. Analytical derivation of device current profiles specific to the DM-SST is used to characterize electrothermal stress, which is then mapped to lifetime using degradation models obtained from power cycling tests (PCTs). Applied to realistic SST load profiles and grid voltage variations, this approach provides a probabilistic prediction of switch lifetime for the DM-SST. Lifetime estimates for both SiC MOSFETs and Si IGBTs are presented, offering insight into device degradation under converter operating conditions. The results quantify the reliability benefits of soft switching in single-stage SSTs, highlighting how switching dynamics influence long-term switch degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scalable Prediction of Energy Consumption using Incremental Time Series Clustering

Time series datasets are a canonical form of high velocity Big Data, and often generated by pervasive sensors, such as found in smart infrastructure. Performing predictive analytics on time series data can be computationally complex, and requires approximation techniques. In this paper, we motivate this problem using a real application from the smart grid domain. We propose an incremental clustering technique, along with a novel affinity score for determining cluster similarity, which help reduce the prediction error for cumulative time series within a cluster. We evaluate this technique, along with optimizations, using real datasets from smart meters, totaling ~700,000 data points, and show the efficacy of our techniques in improving the prediction error of time series data within polynomial time.

Simmhan, Yogesh↗

Steady-State Calibration of a Diesel Engine in CFD Using a GPU-Based Chemistry Solver

The prospect of analysis-driven pre-calibration of a modern diesel engine is extremely valuable in order to significantly reduce hardware investments and accelerate engine designs compliant with stricter EPA fuel economy regulations. Advanced modeling tools, such as CFD, are often used with the goal of streamlining significant portions of the calibration process. The success of the methodology largely relies on the accuracy of analytical predictions, especially engine-out emissions. However, the effectiveness of CFD simulation tools for in-cylinder engine combustion is often compromised by the complexity, accuracy, and computational overhead of detailed chemical kinetics necessary for combustion calculations. The standard approach has been to use skeletal kinetic mechanisms (~50 species) which consume acceptable computational time but with degraded accuracy.In this work, a comprehensive demonstration and validation of the analytical pre-calibration process is presented for a passenger car diesel engine using CFD simulations with CONVERGE™ and a GPU-based chemical kinetics solver (Zero-RK, developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) on high performance computing resources to enable the use of detailed kinetic mechanisms. Diesel engine combustion computations have been conducted over 600 operating points spanning in-vehicle speed-load map, using massively parallel ensemble simulation sets on the Titan supercomputer located at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The results with different mesh resolutions have been analyzed to compare differences in combustion and emissions (NO x , Carbon Monoxide CO, Unburned Hydrocarbons UHC, and Smoke) with actual engine measurements. The results show improved agreement in combustion and NO x predictions with a large n-heptane mechanism consisting of 144 species and 900 reactions with refined mesh resolution; however; agreement in CO, UHC and Smoke remain a challenge.

Gao, Jian↗

Phase-field modeling of diffusion bonding in 316H stainless steel: Impact of processing conditions on grain morphology and bonding quality

A novel multi-phase, multi-component phase‐field model is presented to study the diffusion bonding of 316H stainless steel. Combined with targeted experimental investigations, this model simulates the bond-growth process and predicts the bonding quality. Unlike previous models, our approach captures the simultaneous evolution of voids and grain structures, while quantifying bonding quality using defined bonding ratio. A comprehensive analysis of bond process control is performed by changing temperature, pressure and surface roughness observing the resulting bond structure, which is consistent with experimental observations and analytical predictions. Temperature is determined to be the dominant factor, with the transition from a flat to a robust bond occurring between 1000 °C and 1050 °C. At the ideal bonding temperature of 1050 °C, a surface roughness exceeding 0.6 μm or an applied stress below 4 MPa results in poor bonding quality. Beyond this, higher pressures and smoother surfaces reduce void size, accelerate void shrinkage, and lead to improved bond integrity. This diffuse-interface model can be extended to other material systems if supplied with appropriate thermodynamic and kinetic data. In conclusion, this makes it an effective modeling platform for optimizing high-temperature diffusion bonding and developing reliable bonded components such as compact heat exchangers.

Diffusion bonding↗

Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

In this paper, we present a methodology to predict the shape of solute breakthrough curves in heterogeneous aquifers at early times and/or under high degrees of heterogeneity, both cases in which the classical macrodispersion theory may not be applicable. The methodology relies on the observation that breakthrough curves in heterogeneous media are generally well described by lognormal distributions, and mean breakthrough times can be predicted analytically. The log-variance of solute arrival is thus sufficient to completely specify the breakthrough curves, and this is calibrated as a function of aquifer heterogeneity and dimensionless distance from a source plane by means of Monte Carlo analysis and statistical regression. Using the ensemble of simulated groundwater flow and solute transport realizations employed to calibrate the predictive regression, reliability estimates for the prediction are also developed. Additional theoretical contributions include heuristics for the time until an effective macrodispersion coefficient becomes applicable, and also an expression for its magnitude that applies in highly heterogeneous systems. Finally, it is seen that the results here represent a way to derive continuous time random walk transition distributions from physical considerations rather than from empirical field calibration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Steady-State Calibration of a Diesel Engine in Computational Fluid Dynamics Using a Graphical Processing Unit-Based Chemistry Solver

The prospect of analysis-driven precalibration of a modern diesel engine is extremely valuable in order to significantly reduce hardware investments and accelerate engine designs compliant with stricter fuel economy regulations. Advanced modeling tools, such as CFD, are often used with the goal of streamlining significant portions of the calibration process. The success of the methodology largely relies on the accuracy of analytical predictions, especially engine-out emissions. However, the effectiveness of CFD simulation tools for in-cylinder engine combustion is often compromised by the complexity, accuracy, and computational overhead of detailed chemical kinetics necessary for combustion calculations. The standard approach has been to use skeletal kinetic mechanisms (~50 species), which consume acceptable computational time but with degraded accuracy. In this work, a comprehensive demonstration and validation of the analytical precalibration process is presented for a passenger car diesel engine using CFD simulations and a graphical processing unit (GPU)-based chemical kinetics solver (Zero-RK, developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA) on high performance computing resources to enable the use of detailed kinetic mechanisms. Diesel engine combustion computations have been conducted over 600 operating points spanning in-vehicle speed-load map, using massively parallel ensemble simulation sets on the Titan supercomputer located at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The results with different mesh resolutions have been analyzed to compare differences in combustion and emissions (NOx, carbon monoxide CO, unburned hydrocarbons (UHC), and smoke) with actual engine measurements. The results show improved agreement in combustion and NOx predictions with a large n-heptane mechanism consisting of 144 species and 900 reactions with refined mesh resolution; however, agreement in CO, UHC, and smoke remains a challenge.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analytical approximations for spiral waves

We propose a non-perturbative attempt to solve the kinematic equations for spiral waves in excitable media. From the eikonal equation for the wave front we derive an implicit analytical relation between rotation frequency Ω and core radius R{sub 0}. For free, rigidly rotating spiral waves our analytical prediction is in good agreement with numerical solutions of the linear eikonal equation not only for very large but also for intermediate and small values of the core radius. An equivalent Ω(R{sub +}) dependence improves the result by Keener and Tyson for spiral waves pinned to a circular defect of radius R{sub +} with Neumann boundaries at the periphery. Simultaneously, analytical approximations for the shape of free and pinned spirals are given. We discuss the reasons why the ansatz fails to correctly describe the dependence of the rotation frequency on the excitability of the medium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗