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NASA NTRS1989

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

DRA/NASA/ONERA Collaboration on Icing Research: Prediction of Airfoil Ice Accretion - Part 2

This report presents results from a joint study by DRA, NASA, and ONERA for the purpose of comparing, improving, and validating the aircraft icing computer codes developed by each agency. These codes are of three kinds: (1) water droplet trajectory prediction, (2) ice accretion modeling, and (3) transient electrothermal deicer analysis. In this joint study, the agencies compared their code predictions with each other and with experimental results. These comparison exercises were published in three technical reports, each with joint authorship. DRA published and had first authorship of Part 1 - Droplet Trajectory Calculations, NASA of Part 2 - Ice Accretion Prediction, and ONERA of Part 3 - Electrothermal Deicer Analysis. The results cover work done during the period from August 1986 to late 1991. As a result, all of the information in this report is dated. Where necessary, current information is provided to show the direction of current research. In this present report on ice accretion, each agency predicted ice shapes on two dimensional airfoils under icing conditions for which experimental ice shapes were available. In general, all three codes did a reasonable job of predicting the measured ice shapes. For any given experimental condition, one of the three codes predicted the general ice features (i.e., shape, impingement limits, mass of ice) somewhat better than did the other two. However, no single code consistently did better than the other two over the full range of conditions examined, which included rime, mixed, and glaze ice conditions. In several of the cases, DRA showed that the user's knowledge of icing can significantly improve the accuracy of the code prediction. Rime ice predictions were reasonably accurate and consistent among the codes, because droplets freeze on impact and the freezing model is simple. Glaze ice predictions were less accurate and less consistent among the codes, because the freezing model is more complex and is critically dependent upon unsubstantiated heat transfer and surface roughness models. Thus, heat transfer prediction methods used in the codes became the subject for a separate study in this report to compare predicted heat transfer coefficients with a limited experimental database of heat transfer coefficients for cylinders with simulated glaze and rime ice shapes. The codes did a good job of predicting heat transfer coefficients near the stagnation region of the ice shapes. But in the region of the ice horns, all three codes predicted heat transfer coefficients considerably higher than the measured values. An important conclusion of this study is that further research is needed to understand the finer detail of of the glaze ice accretion process and to develop improved glaze ice accretion models.

Wright, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of Current Jet Noise Prediction Capabilities

An assessment was made of the capability of jet noise prediction codes over a broad range of jet flows, with the objective of quantifying current capabilities and identifying areas requiring future research investment. Three separate codes in NASA s possession, representative of two classes of jet noise prediction codes, were evaluated, one empirical and two statistical. The empirical code is the Stone Jet Noise Module (ST2JET) contained within the ANOPP aircraft noise prediction code. It is well documented, and represents the state of the art in semi-empirical acoustic prediction codes where virtual sources are attributed to various aspects of noise generation in each jet. These sources, in combination, predict the spectral directivity of a jet plume. A total of 258 jet noise cases were examined on the ST2JET code, each run requiring only fractions of a second to complete. Two statistical jet noise prediction codes were also evaluated, JeNo v1, and Jet3D. Fewer cases were run for the statistical prediction methods because they require substantially more resources, typically a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solution of the jet, volume integration of the source statistical models over the entire plume, and a numerical solution of the governing propagation equation within the jet. In the evaluation process, substantial justification of experimental datasets used in the evaluations was made. In the end, none of the current codes can predict jet noise within experimental uncertainty. The empirical code came within 2dB on a 1/3 octave spectral basis for a wide range of flows. The statistical code Jet3D was within experimental uncertainty at broadside angles for hot supersonic jets, but errors in peak frequency and amplitude put it out of experimental uncertainty at cooler, lower speed conditions. Jet3D did not predict changes in directivity in the downstream angles. The statistical code JeNo,v1 was within experimental uncertainty predicting noise from cold subsonic jets at all angles, but did not predict changes with heating of the jet and did not account for directivity changes at supersonic conditions. Shortcomings addressed here give direction for future work relevant to the statistical-based prediction methods. A full report will be released as a chapter in a NASA publication assessing the state of the art in aircraft noise prediction.

Hunter, Craid A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

sea ice↗

DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗

DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking core turbulence and transport predictions for an inductive compact tokamak reactor plasma

Motivated by the need for accurate, timely, and efficient calculations of plasma transport, predictions of plasma turbulence properties made using different TGLF saturation rules are benchmarked against corresponding predictions from linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic CGYRO simulations. This benchmarking is carried out using parameters taken from an inductive burning plasma scenario in a hypothetical compact high-field (R maj = 4 m, B T = 8 T) tokamak, lying in a much different regime of parameter space than either the TGLF calibration regime or current-day experiments. The core turbulent transport in this scenario is predicted to be dominated by ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence. In general, the ITG critical gradients predicted by various TGLF saturation rules are quite close to the CGYRO predictions. Both codes predict similar linear ITG growth rates and frequency spectra, as well as their scaling with R/L T i = −Rd ln(T i )/dr. However, TGLF systematically predicts unstable trapped-electron modes (TEMs) above k y ρ s ≃ 0.5 not seen by CGYRO for the same parameters, due to TGLF predicting a lower threshold in R/L T e than CGYRO for TEM onset. It is shown that for this scenario, nonlinear CGYRO simulations predict stiffer ITG turbulence than the TGLF SAT0 and SAT1 saturation rules, with energy fluxes close in magnitude and scaling with R/L T i to what is predicted by the SAT2 saturation rule. Self-consistent core profiles calculated using nonlinear CGYRO flux predictions and the PORTALS transport solver are shown to agree fairly well with corresponding predictions made using the TGLF SAT2 model, including a similar level of density peaking.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Seybert, A. F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accuracy Assessment of Two Gps Fidelity Prediction Services in Urban Terrain

Low altitude flight in urban areas is susceptible to degraded GNSS-based navigation system performance due to terrain interference with radio signals from orbital positioning satellites. Predictive navigation performance fidelity tools are needed a) in preflight planning to assist in the creation of safe flight paths and b) in-flight to provide contingency management agents with the navigation risk of proximal flight corridors. Two navigation fidelity prediction services are validated by comparison with over 6000 readings from GNSS sensors collected along a five-mile path through urban areas of Corpus Christi, Texas, on three dates in 2022. Predictions are based on satellite line of sight through 3D terrain data collected in 2018. Each service predicts a set of navigation fidelity metrics over a user-specified time period. One metric estimated by both is the number of visible satellites. A direct comparison of the number of predicted visible satellites with the number sensed by the receiver is used to validate the prediction services. Results show an exact match in the number of predicted satellites for 60% of the measurements, and a match within +/- 4 satellites for 95% of the measurements. As expected, agreement improves away from vertical blocking terrain. Most cases of mismatch are due a lower predicted count than measured (false negatives), and can be accounted for by receiver pickup of stray signals caused by multipath propagation. About 10% of mismatches are false positives and are mostly accounted for by foliage effects. The two services predict visibility of the same set of satellites 80% of the time, differ by two or less satellites 95% of the time, and can compute predictions for one hour of observations in one minute or less. Validation is analyzed statistically and in detailed case studies of selected observation times. The prediction services validated in this study run fast enough for preflight safety planning. The more stringent challenge of inflight navigation fidelity prediction for contingency management requires both a speedup of the current level of modeling and equally fast stray signal modeling.

Andrew Moore↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accuracy Assessment of Two GPS Fidelity Prediction Services in Urban Terrain

Andrew J. Moore↗

NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs: Preprint

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error responses be known for a particular input and modeled plant. These responses are used in the error prediction controller. An analysis was done on the general dynamic behavior that results from including a digital error predictor in a control loop and these were compared to those including the near-ideal Neural Network error predictor. This analysis was done for a second and third order system.

Mcvey, Eugene S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Prediction of Transitional Flows in the Low Pressure Turbine

Current turbulence models tend to give too early and too short a length of flow transition to turbulence, and hence fail to predict flow separation induced by the adverse pressure gradients and streamline flow curvatures. Our discussion will focus on the development and validation of transition models. The baseline data for model comparisons are the T3 series, which include a range of free-stream turbulence intensity and cover zero-pressure gradient to aft-loaded turbine pressure gradient flows. The method will be based on the conditioned N-S equations and a transport equation for the intermittency factor. First, several of the most popular 2-equation models in predicting flow transition are examined: k-e [Launder-Sharina], k-w [Wilcox], Lien-Leschiziner and SST [Menter] models. All models fail to predict the onset and the length of transition, even for the simplest flat plate with zero-pressure gradient(T3A). Although the predicted onset position of transition can be varied by providing different inlet turbulent energy dissipation rates, the appropriate inlet conditions for turbulence quantities should be adjusted to match the decay of the free-stream turbulence. Arguably, one may adjust the low-Reynolds-number part of the model to predict transition. This approach has so far not been very successful. However, we have found that the low-Reynolds-number model of Launder and Sharma [1974], which is an improved version of Jones and Launder [1972] gave the best overall performance. The Launder and Sharma model was designed to capture flow re-laminarization (a reverse of flow transition), but tends to give rise to a too early and too fast transition in comparison with the physical transition. The three test cases were for flows with zero pressure gradient but with different free-stream turbulent intensities. The same can be said about the model when considering flows subject to pressure gradient(T3C1). To capture the effects of transition using existing turbulence models, one approach is to make use of the concept of the intermittency to predict the flow transition. It was originally based on the intermittency distribution of Narasimha [1957], and then gradually evolved into a transport equation for the intermittency factor. Gostelow and associates [1994,1995] have made some improvements to Narasimha's method in an attempt to account for both favorable and adverse pressure gradients. Their approach is based on a linear, explicit combination of laminar and turbulent solutions. This approach fails to predict the overshoot of the skin friction on a flat plate near the end of transition zone, even though the length of transition is well predicted. The major flaw of Gostelow's approach is that it assumes the non-turbulent part being the laminar solution and the turbulent part being the turbulent solution and they do not interact across the transitional region. The technique in condition averaging the flow equations in intermittent flows was first introduced by Libby [1975] and Dopazo [1977] and further refined by Dick and associates [1988, 1996]. This approach employs two sets of transport equations for the non-turbulent part and the other for the turbulent part. The advantage of this approach is that it allows the interaction of non-turbulent and turbulent velocities through the introduction of additional source terms in the continuity and momentum equations for the non-turbulent and turbulent velocities. However, the strong coupling of the two sets of equations has caused some numerical difficulties, which requires special attention. The prediction of the skin friction can be improved by this approach via the implicit coupling of non-turbulent and turbulent velocity flelds. Another improvement of the interrmittency model can be further made by allowing the intermittency to vary in the cross-stream direction. This is one step prior to testing any proposal for the transport equation for the intermittency factor. Instead of solving the transport equation for the intermittency factor, the distribution for the intermittency factor is prescribed by Klebanoff's empirical formula [1955]. The skin friction is very well predicted by this new modification, including the overshoot of the profile near the end of the transition zone. The outcome of this study is very encouraging since it indicates that the proper description of the intermittency distribution is the key to the success of the model prediction. This study will be used to guide us on the modelling of the intermittency transport equation.

Huang, George↗

NASA NTRS2008

All Recent Mars Landers Have Landed Downrange - Are Mars Atmosphere Models Mis-Predicting Density?

All recent Mars landers (Mars Pathfinder, the two Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, and the Mars Phoenix Lander) have landed further downrange than their pre-entry predictions. Mars Pathfinder landed 27 km downrange of its prediction [1], Spirit and Opportunity landed 13.4 km and 14.9 km, respectively, downrange from their predictions [2], and Phoenix landed 21 km downrange from its prediction [3]. Reconstruction of their entries revealed a lower density profile than the best a priori atmospheric model predictions. Do these results suggest that there is a systemic issue in present Mars atmosphere models that predict a higher density than observed on landing day? Spirit Landing: The landing location for Spirit was 13.4 km downrange of the prediction as shown in Fig. 1. The navigation errors upon Mars arrival were very small [2]. As such, the entry interface conditions were not responsible for this downrange landing. Consequently, experiencing a lower density during the entry was the underlying cause. The reconstructed density profile that Spirit experienced is shown in Fig. 2, which is plotted as a fraction of the pre-entry baseline prediction that was used for all the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) design analyses. The reconstructed density is observed to be less dense throughout the descent reaching a maximum reduction of 15% at 21 km. This lower density corresponded to approximately a 1- low profile relative to the dispersions predicted. Nearly all the deceleration during the entry occurs within 10- 50 km. As such, prediction of density within this altitude band is most critical for entry flight dynamics analyses and design (e.g., aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic predictions, landing location, etc.).

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Navigation Prediction Performance During OSIRIS-REx Proximity Operations at (101955) Bennu

The OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification and Security–Regolith Explorer) Orbit Determination team performed covariance analyses prior to the commencement of proximity operations (ProxOps) at (101955) Bennu to determine the expected predicted trajectory performance in order to meet trajectory knowledge requirements throughout each phase of the mission. One of the primary requirements placed on the predicted trajectory performance was based on the performance during orbital phases leading up to the maneuver to initiate the Touch-and-Go (TAG) trajectory descent. Throughout ProxOps the nominal force models being used to predict the spacecraft trajectory were updated in an effort to improve the prediction performance. The most significant models that contributed to prediction performance were of solar radiation pressure, thermal reradiation of the spacecraft, predicted attitude errors, and desaturation maneuvers. Efforts were made throughout all of ProxOps to monitor, trend, predict, and update spacecraft modeling to improve the prediction performance. These efforts were vital to reduce the spacecraft knowledge errors necessary to achieve a TAG target smaller than pre-launch analysis allowed due to the rough terrain of Bennu. Increased precision in predicted trajectory errors allowed for refined uncertainties to be used for future phase planning throughout the mission. The navigation team successfully predicted the spacecraft trajectory throughout all of ProxOps achieving predicted trajectories errors less than originally analyzed.

Jason M. Leonard↗