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At least 109 records · Page 6

A comparative study of two-way and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US: performance evaluation and impacts of chemistry–meteorology feedbacks on air quality

The two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model has been developed to more realistically represent the atmosphere by accounting for complex chemistry–meteorology feedbacks. In this study, we present a comparative analysis of two-way (with consideration of both aerosol direct and indirect effects) and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US. Long-term (5 years from 2008 to 2012) simulations using WRF-CMAQ with both offline and two-way coupling modes are carried out with anthropogenic emissions based on multiple years of the U.S. National Emission Inventory and chemical initial and boundary conditions derived from an advanced Earth system model (i.e., a modified version of the Community Earth System Model/Community Atmospheric Model). The comprehensive model evaluations show that both two-way WRF-CMAQ and WRF-only simulations perform well for major meteorological variables such as temperature at 2 m, relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, precipitation (except for against the National Climatic Data Center data), and shortwave and longwave radiation. Both two-way and offline CMAQ also show good performance for ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). Due to the consideration of aerosol direct and indirect effects, two-way WRF-CMAQ shows improved performance over offline coupled WRF and CMAQ in terms of spatiotemporal distributions and statistics, especially for radiation, cloud forcing, O 3 , sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, tropospheric O 3 residual, and column nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). For example, the mean biases have been reduced by more than 10 W m –2 for shortwave radiation and cloud radiative forcing and by more than 2 ppb for max 8 h O 3 . However, relatively large biases still exist for cloud predictions, some PM 2.5 species, and PM 10 that warrant follow-up studies to better understand those issues. The impacts of chemistry–meteorological feedbacks are found to play important roles in affecting regional air quality in the US by reducing domain-average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), O 3 , nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and PM 2.5 by 3.1 % (up to 27.8 %), 4.2 % (up to 16.2 %), 6.6 % (up to 50.9 %), 5.8 % (up to 46.6 %), and 8.6 % (up to 49.1 %), respectively, mainly due to reduced radiation, temperature, and wind speed. The overall performance of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model achieved in this work is generally good or satisfactory and the improved performance for two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Call to Action for Global Access to and Harmonization of Quality Information of Individual Earth Science Datasets

Knowledge about the quality of data and metadata is important to support informed decisions on the (re)use of individual datasets and is an essential part of the ecosystem that supports open science. Quality assessments reflect the reliability and usability of data. They need to be consistently curated, fully traceable, and adequately documented, as these are crucial for sound decision- and policy-making efforts that rely on data. Quality assessments also need to be consistently represented and readily integrated across systems and tools to allow for improved sharing of information on quality at the dataset level for individual quality attribute or dimension. Although the need for assessing the quality of data and associated information is well recognized, methodologies for an evaluation framework and presentation of resultant quality information to end users may not have been comprehensively addressed within and across disciplines. Global interdisciplinary domain experts have come together to systematically explore needs, challenges and impacts of consistently curating and representing quality information through the entire lifecycle of a dataset. This paper describes the findings of that effort, argues the importance of sharing dataset quality information, calls for community action to develop practical guidelines, and outlines community recommendations for developing such guidelines. Practical guidelines will allow for global access to and harmonization of quality information at the level of individual Earth science datasets, which in turn will support open science.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Communicating the risk

The balance between benefits and risk is discussed from the standpoint of the decision or policy making process. The basic premise of the discussion is that applied technology may be divided into two parts: (1) benefit oriented technology which includes design, development, manufacturing or construction, and operations; and (2) risk or uncertainty technology which includes safety, reliability, quality assurance, test, and maintenance. Whereas the primary emphasis of the discussion is placed on the importance of a balance in the application of these technologies, arguments are presented which indicate that risk technologies lag far behind benefit technologies. In addition, existing conditions and pressures are described which lead to underestimating risk. The importance is stressed of developing a better sense of the advantages that knowledge of risk could provide via the decision making process. It is suggested that by experiment and analysis on the effects of increasing the contribution of risk technologies, a better understanding of their potentiality and limitations would result.

Raymond M. Wilmotte↗

The aviation safety reporting system

The aviation safety reporting system, an accident reporting system, is presented. The system identifies deficiencies and discrepancies and the data it provides are used for long term identification of problems. Data for planning and policy making are provided. The system offers training in safety education to pilots. Data and information are drawn from the available data bases.

Reynard, W. D.↗

Artificial intelligence - New tools for aerospace project managers

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is currently being used for business-oriented, money-making applications, such as medical diagnosis, computer system configuration, and geological exploration. The present paper has the objective to assess new AI tools and techniques which will be available to assist aerospace managers in the accomplishment of their tasks. A study conducted by Brown and Cheeseman (1983) indicates that AI will be employed in all traditional management areas, taking into account goal setting, decision making, policy formulation, evaluation, planning, budgeting, auditing, personnel management, training, legal affairs, and procurement. Artificial intelligence/expert systems are discussed, giving attention to the three primary areas concerned with intelligent robots, natural language interfaces, and expert systems. Aspects of information retrieval are also considered along with the decision support system, and expert systems for project planning and scheduling.

Moja, D. C.↗

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Njoto, Sukrisno↗

Opinion polls and the US civil space program

An analysis of two public opinion poles that sought to determine NASA's level of support among the American people is presented. One pole models public participation in policy-making as a pyramid. The model provides for three levels of public participation: the attentive public, the interested public, and the non-attentive public. The three groups are discussed in the context of how to best promulgate NASA's mission throughout the American public.

Fries, Sylvia Doughty↗

Rule induction techniques

Expert System technology is receiving more and more consideration these days when it comes time for selecting an implementation paradigm. As people become educated as to which domains Expert Systems technology can be appropriately utilized and to what extent this capability can be made useful, they will want to extend this ability to encompass greater responsibilities of their everyday routines. Knowledge Acquisition is one of the most time-consuming phases of an Expert System development process. One must extract the essential knowledge from a source by whatever means, and transform this knowledge into a representation that can be demonstrated. Rule Induction is one technique that can be applied to the knowledge acquisition process for certain example-based problems. Spread Sheets and Data Bases for example, may contain columns of information (criteria) to be used in some sort of decision making policy. These criteria could automatically be converted (represented) into production rules that output an appropriate decision dependent upon a given set of criteria. To generalize this concept, we could state that Rule Induction is the process of generating a Knowledge Base from a given set of examples. Through the use of Rule Induction, I will explain how I took information from a database and generated rules encapsulating the information contained within the database.

Young, Gary B.↗

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

D'Antoni, Hector L.↗

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

DAntoni, Hector↗

EU Accession and Civil Aviation Regimes: Malta and Cyprus as a Case Study

Aviation deregulation is usually a challenging and demanding task and accession to the European Union requires that all candidate states should harmonize their legislation in the context of the European Common Aviation Area. Malta and Cyprus, the small Mediterranean island-states to join the EU in 2004, will have to abandon any protectionist policies in favour of their flag-carriers and let them survive in a liberal framework. The paper discusses the implications of this regime change for civil aviation in Malta and Cyprus and in addition to the airline industry, it examines the impacts on the complementary tourism sector. Unless carrying capacity limits are understood, the islands may become victims of successful airline liberalisation. The paper concludes by stressing the need for sustainable development and active policy making. Keywords: carrying capacity, Cyprus, air transport deregulation, Malta, tourism

Papatheodorou, Andreas↗

Space Shuttle Hot Cabin Emergency Responses

Methods: Human thermal tolerance, countermeasures, and thermal model data were reviewed and compared to existing shuttle ECS failure temperature and humidity profiles for each failure mode. Increases in core temperature associated with cognitive impairment was identified, as was metabolic heat generation of crewmembers, temperature monitoring, and communication capabilities after partial power-down and other limiting factors. Orbiter landing strategies and a hydration and salt replacement protocol were developed to put wheels on deck in each failure mode prior to development of significant cognitive impairment or collapse of crewmembers. Thermal tradeoffs for use of the Advanced Crew Escape Suit (ACES), Liquid Cooling Garment, integrated G-suit and Quick Don Mask were examined. candidate solutions involved trade-offs or conflicts with cabin oxygen partial pressure limits, system power-downs to limit heat generation, risks of alternate and emergency landing sites or compromise of Mode V-VIII scenarios. Results: Rehydration and minimized cabin workloads are required in all failure modes. Temperature/humidity profiles increase rapidly in two failure modes, and deorbit is recommended without the ACES, ICU and g-suit. This latter configuration limits several shuttle approach and landing escape modes and requires communication modifications. Additional data requirements were identified and engineering simulations were recommended to develop more current shuttle temperature and humidity profiles. Discussion: After failure of the shuttle ECS, there is insufficient cooling capacity of the ACES to protect crewmembers from rising cabin temperature and humidity. The LCG is inadequate for cabin temperatures above 76 F. Current shuttle future life policy makes it unlikely that major engineering upgrades necessary to address this problem will occur.

Stepaniak, P.↗

NASA Applied Sciences Program

Goal 1: Enhance Applications Research Advance the use of NASA Earth science in policy making, resource management and planning, and disaster response. Key Actions: Identify priority needs, conduct applied research to generate innovative applications, and support projects that demonstrate uses of NASA Earth science. Goal 2: Increase Collaboration Establish a flexible program structure to meet diverse partner needs and applications objectives. Key Actions: Pursue partnerships to leverage resources and risks and extend the program s reach and impact. Goal 3:Accelerate Applications Ensure that NASA s flight missions plan for and support applications goals in conjunction with their science goals, starting with mission planning and extending through the mission life cycle. Key Actions: Enable identification of applications early in satellite mission lifecycle and facilitate effective ways to integrate end-user needs into satellite mission planning

Irwin, Daniel↗

Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

Data Mining and Complex Problems: Case Study in Composite Materials

Data mining is defined as the discovery of useful, possibly unexpected, patterns and relationships in data using statistical and non-statistical techniques in order to develop schemes for decision and policy making. Data mining can be used to discover the sources and causes of problems in complex systems. In addition, data mining can support simulation strategies by finding the different constants and parameters to be used in the development of simulation models. This paper introduces a framework for data mining and its application to complex problems. To further explain some of the concepts outlined in this paper, the potential application to the NASA Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon structures and genetic programming is used as an illustration.

Rabelo, Luis↗

Summary of the Geocarto International Special Issue on "NASA Earth Science Satellite Data for Applications to Public Health" to be Published in Early 2014

At the 2011 Applied Science Public Health review held in Santa Fe, NM, it was announced that Dr. Dale Quattrochi from the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, John Haynes, Program Manager for the Applied Sciences Public Health program at NASA Headquarters, and Sue Estes, Deputy Program Manager for the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program located at the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL, would edit a special issue of the journal Geocarto International on "NASA Earth Science Satellite Data for Applications to Public Health". This issue would be focused on compiling research papers that use NASA Earth Science satellite data for applications to public health. NASA's Public Health Program concentrates on advancing the realization of societal and economic benefits from NASA Earth Science in the areas of infectious disease, emergency preparedness and response, and environmental health (e.g., air quality). This application area as a focus of the NASA Applied Sciences program, has engaged public health institutions and officials with research scientists in exploring new applications of Earth Science satellite data as an integral part of public health decision- and policy-making at the local, state and federal levels. Of interest to this special issue are papers submitted on are topics such as epidemiologic surveillance in the areas of infectious disease, environmental health, and emergency response and preparedness, national and international activities to improve skills, share data and applications, and broaden the range of users who apply Earth Science satellite data in public health decisions, or related focus areas.. This special issue has now been completed and will be published n early 2014. This talk will present an overview of the papers that will be published in this special Geocarto International issue.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗