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At least 109 records · Page 6

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential impacts of China's climate policies on energy security

Highlights: • We develop an energy security assessment framework in a 3E-integrated system model. • The potential relations between climate targets and energy security are examined. • Climate policy reduces risks of energy system in terms of main safety metrics. • The impact of emission budgets on energy diversity relies on the time scale options. • Co-benefits of energy security would improve the economics of climate policies. - Abstract: Energy security, as an indispensable constituent of economic security, has long been a top research priority, and the dynamics of energy security become particularly complicated with the involvement of climate change. In this work, we combined a one-sector integrated assessment framework with a series of well-proposed energy security metrics to extensively explore the unidirectional consistency between climate policy and energy security from the national perspective. Implementation of climate policy is generally beneficial for improving energy security. Specifically, climate policy helps to reduce the systematic risk of China's energy system according to the metrics of energy (oil) intensity, energy (oil) expenditures and per capita energy (oil) consumption independent of time scale options. As observed from the perspective of energy diversity, co-benefits arising from climate policy primarily emerge in the first half of this century, and they may gradually decline as emission constraints and the phasing out of fossil fuels are enhanced. Additionally, the macroeconomic costs required to reach China's committed carbon-peaking target might be far lower than the costs required to fulfill the emission budgets under the global 2-degree warming rise threshold. If the co-benefits of energy security are considered, the economics of climate policy is expected to significantly improve.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Oblique Decision Tree Enabled Policy Extraction for Deep Reinforcement Learning in Power System Emergency Control

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms have successfully solved many challenging problems in various power system control scenarios. However, their decision-making process is usually regarded as black-boxes. Furthermore, how DRL models interact with human intelligence remains an open problem. Thus, this paper proposes a policy extraction framework to extract a complex DRL model into an explainable policy. This framework includes three parts: 1) DRL training and data generation. We train an agent for a specific control task and generate data, which contains the control policy of the agent. 2) Policy extraction. We propose an information gain rate based weighted oblique decision tree (IGR-WODT) for DRL policy extraction. 3) Policy evaluation. We define three metrics to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. A case study for the under-voltage load shedding problem shows that the IGR-WODT presents a performance enhancement compared with DRL, weighted oblique decision tree, and univariate decision tree. The proposed policy extraction method could provide an intuitive explanation of the neural network decision-making process to the dispatchers when making final decisions on power grid operation. Also, the resulted rule-based controller could replace the deep neural network-based controller in many field edge devices with limited computing resources, providing comparable performance.

deep reinforcement learning↗

Policy Framework to Improve Mobility Efficiency and Electrify Transportation in Tonga

The Kingdom of Tonga, like many small island developing states, is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels to meet its current energy needs, especially for transportation. The Kingdom has requested a policy framework that benefits its land transportation sector by saving cost and time, increasing resilience, and reducing petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This framework was developed by building on past work, namely the Tonga Energy Efficiency Master Plan 2020-2030 (TEEMP), the Tonga Energy Road Map 2021-2035 (TERMPLUS), and the Regional Electric Mobility Policy for Pacific Island Countries and Territories developed by the Pacific Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (PCREEE). The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to Tonga's land transportation system were identified at stakeholder working group meetings in Tonga in June 2023. A set of appropriate policies that have been effective in relevant jurisdictions were then discussed and refined by the working group. The resulting 27 policies are defined according to intended outcomes, relationship to other proposed policies, applications in other relevant jurisdictions, hurdles to implementation, resilience impact, equity impact, and government revenue impact. Some of the policies are also accompanied by implementation recommendations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analyzing Foreign and Domestic Policy to Determine a Pathway to Achieving the US' NDC with a Focus on Advanced Reactors and Hydrogen

The United states in 2021 released a nationally determined contribution indicating goals to reach 50-52% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 and to achieve zero carbon electricity by 2035. Current policy does not put us on course to achieve these goals, so we investigated policies that could form a pathway to achieve these goals in the US. We focused on the use of advanced nuclear reactors and hydrogen, but analyzed all relevant sectors to achieve our goals. This report also focuses on analyzing existing foreign policies and determining the most effective policies in each sectors. By combining the most effective policies from around the world in each sector, we find that we can set policies that form a pathway that is ambitious enough to meet the NDC goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Abstract Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Implementing Nationally Determined Contributions: Building Energy Policies in India’s Mitigation Strategy

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are allowing countries to examine options for reducing emissions through a range of domestic policies. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model to demonstrate the potential impacts of energy policies and discuss strategies to implement India’s NDC with a focus on the buildings sector. Buildings are the largest end-use sector globally, and building energy consumption is expected to increase as income grows in developing countries. We find that implementing a range of energy efficiency policies robustly can reduce total Indian building energy use by 22% and lower total Indian carbon dioxide emissions by 9% in 2050 compared to the business as usual scenario. Among various policies, energy codes for new buildings can result in the most significant savings. For all energy efficiency policies, well-coordinated, consistent implementation is critical, which requires coordination across different departments and agencies, improving capacity of stakeholders, and developing appropriate institutions to facilitate policy implementation. Renewable energy deployment can also reduce carbon emissions from buildings, and incentives in the short term are important to ensuring strong market uptake. Effective development and implementation of building energy policies could help avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructure, while improving living standards and generating health benefits.

Yu, Sha↗

Policy-relevant differences between secondhand and thirdhand smoke: strengthening protections from involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke pollutants

Starting in the 1970s, individuals, businesses and the public have increasingly benefited from policies prohibiting smoking indoors, saving thousands of lives and billions of dollars in healthcare expenditures. Smokefree policies to protect against secondhand smoke exposure, however, do not fully protect the public from the persistent and toxic chemical residues from tobacco smoke (also known as thirdhand smoke) that linger in indoor environments for years after smoking stops. Nor do these policies address the economic costs that individuals, businesses and the public bear in their attempts to remediate this toxic residue. We discuss policy-relevant differences between secondhand smoke and thirdhand smoke exposure: persistent pollutant reservoirs, pollutant transport, routes of exposure, the time gap between initial cause and effect, and remediation and disposal. We examine four policy considerations to better protect the public from involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke pollutants from all sources. We call for (a) redefining smokefree as free of tobacco smoke pollutants from secondhandandthirdhand smoke; (b) eliminating exemptions to comprehensive smoking bans; (c) identifying indoor environments with significant thirdhand smoke reservoirs; and (d) remediating thirdhand smoke. We use the case of California as an example of how secondhand smoke-protective laws may be strengthened to encompass thirdhand smoke protections. The health risks and economic costs of thirdhand smoke require that smokefree policies, environmental protections, real estate and rental disclosure policies, tenant protections, and consumer protection laws be strengthened to ensure that the public is fully protected from and informed about the risks of thirdhand smoke exposure.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

Incentivizing Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: A Review of Global Policies and Markets

This report summarizes current government policies that seek to increase deployment of light-duty, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States, Europe, and China. The paper also describes recent PEV market trends in these three regions. By comparing combinations of PEV policies and trends of PEV sales in different regions at national and subnational levels, the authors make several observations and draw general conclusions, using supporting examples for the findings. One finding, consistent with earlier studies, is that multiple, complementary PEV incentives and deployment policies are generally more effective in increasing adoption of PEVs within a given market than single policie s. In most regions, financial incentives, especially point -of -sale incentives, are effective in increasing adoption, particularly when generous and combined with other supporting polices, such as increasing charging station availability, which contributes to ease of use. The authors also observed differences in policies and market trends between regions. In Europe, where taxes on vehicles are high, tax credits provide strong incentives for PEV adoption, whereas in several Chinese cities, where restrictions on vehicle registration or use are imposed, relaxation of restrictions on PEVs effectively promote PEV adoption. In addition, governments are replacing some policies based on technical specifications (e.g., battery capacity) with policies based on performance metrics (e.g., vehicle range and electricity consumption rate per distance).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

History of Ethanol Fuel Adoption in the United States: Policy, Economics, and Logistics

Ethanol has the achieved the greatest market share of all the alternative transportation fuels that have been researched, developed, and deployed in the US. There are multiple lessons to be learned from the history of ethanol adoption that can be applied to future fuels and products. Ethanol has replaced portions of gasoline in three main blend levels, with corresponding vehicles, equipment, benefits, and policies. The first is E10, which has replaced nearly all pure gasoline (E0) sold in the United States today (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2015). This was brought about through generations of policies that were motivated by multiple factors related to engine performance, energy security, health, air quality, and climate protection. Ethanol's high octane has been a consistent driver of the fuel because this enables higher performance engines. Early policies (1973-1979) were largely motivated by the desire to reduce dependence on petroleum sourced from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Fuel policy in the 1980s was largely in pursuit of promoting octane number enhancers that could replace lead. Criteria pollutant reduction was the overarching goal of actions taken from 1990 to 2005. From 2005 to the present, fuel policy has been largely motivated by energy security and climate protection goals. These policies were usually technology-agnostic and promoted multiple fuels and additives during each period. However, ethanol is the only fuel identified that is cost effective with qualities that enabled it to prosper in the policy environments of all four of these periods.The second market for ethanol is via 85% ethanol (E85). This fuel has the advantage of a greater concentration of ethanol but the disadvantage of not being compatible with regular gasoline vehicles. Instead, it can only be used in flexible-fuel vehicle (FFVs), which can use every blend level from E0 to E85. Therefore, much of the effort to increase E85 consumption has been aimed at incentivizing automakers to manufacture FFVs, drivers to purchase FFVs, and fueling stations to equip themselves to sell E85.The third, and newest, market through which ethanol is consumed is 15% ethanol (E15), which builds upon the E10 market to increase ethanol consumption by common gasoline vehicles. Efforts to create the E15 market consisted largely of testing vehicles and refueling equipment for compatibility, creating waivers to allow the use of E15, placing requirements on E15 retailers, and incentivizing retailers to equip themselves to purchase E15.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Research in geosciences policy

The general task was to look beyond the adverse physical impacts and to defining the policy problem. In order for policy actions to be effective, they must address the right policy problems, which will be different from and broader than the physical problems. We will work on defining the policy problems with a view to indicating how practical solutions might be implemented. In particular, public officials need advice on what should be said, and done, and for what purposes. That advice needs to be based on systematic analysis of: (1) the scholarly literature in the social sciences, and related disciplines; (2) the charging content of the policy debate at the center of attention; and (3) how citizens perceive and understand issues related to global change. We will conduct this analysis. Chapter 1 and 2 each reports work on defining the policy problem and analyzing the scholarly literature. Chapters 3 and 4, respectively, address the policy debate and citizen viewpoints in issues related to global change.

Brunner, Ronald D.↗

Policy Process Editor for P3BM Software

A computer program enables generation, in the form of graphical representations of process flows with embedded natural-language policy statements, input to a suite of policy-, process-, and performance-based management (P3BM) software. This program (1) serves as an interface between users and the Hunter software, which translates the input into machine-readable form; and (2) enables users to initialize and monitor the policy-implementation process. This program provides an intuitive graphical interface for incorporating natural-language policy statements into business-process flow diagrams. Thus, the program enables users who dictate policies to intuitively embed their intended process flows as they state the policies, reducing the likelihood of errors and reducing the time between declaration and execution of policy.

James, Mark↗

Router Agent Technology for Policy-Based Network Management

This innovation can be run as a standalone network application on any computer in a networked environment. This design can be configured to control one or more routers (one instance per router), and can also be configured to listen to a policy server over the network to receive new policies based on the policy- based network management technology. The Router Agent Technology transforms the received policies into suitable Access Control List syntax for the routers it is configured to control. It commits the newly generated access control lists to the routers and provides feedback regarding any errors that were faced. The innovation also automatically generates a time-stamped log file regarding all updates to the router it is configured to control. This technology, once installed on a local network computer and started, is autonomous because it has the capability to keep listening to new policies from the policy server, transforming those policies to router-compliant access lists, and committing those access lists to a specified interface on the specified router on the network with any error feedback regarding commitment process. The stand-alone application is named RouterAgent and is currently realized as a fully functional (version 1) implementation for the Windows operating system and for CISCO routers.

Chow, Edward T.↗

Dynamic analysis of the urban-based low-carbon policy using system dynamics: Focused on housing and green space

To systematically manage the energy consumption of existing buildings, the government has to enforce greenhouse gas reduction policies. However, most of the policies are not properly executed because they do not consider various factors from the urban level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a dynamic analysis of an urban-based low-carbon policy using system dynamics, with a specific focus on housing and green space. This study was conducted in the following steps: (i) establishing the variables of urban-based greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions; (ii) creating a stock/flow diagram of urban-based GHGs emissions; (iii) conducting an information analysis using the system dynamics; and (iv) proposing the urban-based low-carbon policy. If a combined energy policy that uses the housing sector (30%) and the green space sector (30%) at the same time is implemented, 2020 CO{sub 2} emissions will be 7.23 million tons (i.e., 30.48% below 2020 business-as-usual), achieving the national carbon emissions reduction target (26.9%). The results of this study could contribute to managing and improving the fundamentals of the urban-based low-carbon policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Efficiency Under Alternative Carbon Policies. Incentives, Measurement, and Interregional Effects

In this report, we examine and compare how tradable mass-based polices and tradable rate-based policies create different incentives for energy efficiency investments. Through a generalized demonstration and set of examples, we show that as a result of the output subsidy they create, traditional rate-based policies, those that do not credit energy savings from efficiency measures, reduce the incentive for investment in energy efficiency measures relative to an optimally designed mass-based policy or equivalent carbon tax. We then show that this reduced incentive can be partially addressed by modifying the rate-based policy such that electricity savings from energy efficiency measures are treated as a source of zero-carbon generation within the framework of the standard, or equivalently, by assigning avoided emissions credit to the electricity savings at the rate of the intensity target. These approaches result in an extension of the output subsidy to efficiency measures and eliminate the distortion between supply-side and demand-side options for GHG emissions reduction. However, these approaches do not address electricity price distortions resulting from the output subsidy that also impact the value of efficiency measures. Next, we assess alternative approaches for crediting energy efficiency savings within the framework of a rate-based policy. Finally, we identify a number of challenges that arise in implementing a rate-based policy with efficiency crediting, including the requirement to develop robust estimates of electricity savings in order to assess compliance, and the requirement to track the regionality of the generation impacts of efficiency measures to account for their interstate effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The political economy of noncompliance in China: The case of industrial energy policy

One of the greatest challenges facing China today is the central government's ability to ensure that policies are implemented effectively at the local level, particularly policies that seek to make China's economic growth model more sustainable. These policies face resistance from local authorities and enterprises that benefit from the status quo. This raises a key research question: why do some provinces more fully implement these central policies? We argue the extent of local implementation is best conceptualized as a rational balance between economic and political incentives: localities with regulatory autonomy, low regulatory capacity and alternative interests will not fully implement policies that are at odds with local economic imperatives. By examining a critical case of central policy implementation—industrial energy intensity reduction in the eleventh five-year plan—this article demonstrates that, regardless of industrial makeup or economic development, provinces that have greater regulatory autonomy for noncompliance coupled with alternative economic interests do not, on average, perform as well. As a result, using a nested analysis approach this study illustrates this argument with both quantitative analysis and original case study evidence from fieldwork interviews.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗