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11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Performance Margins”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A Preliminary Foil Gas Bearing Performance Map
Recent breakthrough improvements in foil gas bearing load capacity, high temperature tribological coatings and computer based modeling have enabled the development of increasingly larger and more advanced Oil-Free Turbomachinery systems. Successful integration of foil gas bearings into turbomachinery requires a step wise approach that includes conceptual design and feasibility studies, bearing testing, and rotor testing prior to full scale system level demonstrations. Unfortunately, the current level of understanding of foil gas bearings and especially their tribological behavior is often insufficient to avoid developmental problems thereby hampering commercialization of new applications. In this paper, a new approach loosely based upon accepted hydrodynamic theory, is developed which results in a "Foil Gas Bearing Performance Map" to guide the integration process. This performance map, which resembles a Stribeck curve for bearing friction, is useful in describing bearing operating regimes, performance safety margins, the effects of load on performance and limiting factors for foil gas bearings.
DellaCorte, Christopher↗
Evaluation of electrostatic charge effects on the data processing system and the orbiter communication and tracking receivers
An analysis of radiated interference test results obtained from frictionally charged Orbiter TPS tile was presented. The tests included the measurement of noise pick-up by Orbiter S-band, L-band, C-band, and Ku-band antennas located beneath the tiles in a manner simulating their installation on Orbiter. In addition, the radiated field characteristics resulting from the static discharge was determined. The results are analyzed as to their effect on data bus equipment and on Orbiter Communications and Tracking (C&T) receivers. It was concluded that the radiated interference should have no effect on MDM's. However the CPU, IOP and PMU enclosures require some minor modification to assure immunity from P-static interference. Orbiter antenna tests indicate that the S-band receiver should not be affected by P-static noise. The TACAN and Radar Altimeter performance appears to be adequate but with a small margin. MSBLS performance is uncertain because laboratory instrumentation cannot approach the MSBLS sensitivity.
Lawton, R. M.↗
Failure of Pyrotechnic Operated Valves with Dual Initiators
Investigation of recent pyrovalve failures reveals timing of redundant initiator firings is crucial for reliable operation of pyrovalves. Simultaneous firing, i.e., within a very narrow time frame, was found to be the primary cause of the valve failing to operate. Testing of both single and dual initiators revealed important design characteristics affecting pyrovalve device performance. They include Primer Chamber Assembly (PCA) geometry and material properties, as well as operational effects on combustion product flow, and resulting energy transfer to the booster. The CONAX PCA design has evolved slowly over time undergoing incremental changes to correct known issues. These piecewise changes were verified by limited test, without a full understanding of the overall system impact or effect on margins. Adequate system performance margins may be adversely affected in existing or future systems incorporating a pyrovalve actuated by simultaneous firing of dual initiators.
Failure of Pyrotechnic Operated Valves↗
A review of five decades of strategic decisions and key results on the path to ignition on the National Ignition Facility
Successful demonstration of an implosion that meets the physics metrics for ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in August 2021 and demonstration of G > 1 in December 2022 represented the culmination of five decades of research. This review covers the key strategic decisions and physics results from the 20 J Janus laser to the 2 MJ NIF laser. NIF's specifications were set in order to have a margin in performance to account for uncertainty in the physics challenges leading to ignition, particularly for laser–plasma interaction and hydrodynamic instabilities including long-wavelength modes responsible for implosion symmetry. The ignition experiments utilized all that margin. Achieving the laser and target performance utilized in the Hybrid-E experiments that achieved ignition and G > 1 proved to be a challenge that consumed a decade.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE
In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Marginal unbiased score expansion and application to CMB lensing
Here, we present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces, yielding Gaussianized asymptotically unbiased and near-optimal constraints on global parameters of interest. It is computationally much cheaper than exact alternatives like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), excelling on funnel problems which challenge HMC, and does not require any problem-specific user supervision like other approximate methods such as variational inference or many simulation-based inference methods. MUSE makes possible the first joint Bayesian estimation of the delensed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum and gravitational lensing potential power spectrum, demonstrated here on a simulated data set as large as the upcoming South Pole Telescope 3G 1500 deg 2 survey, corresponding to a latent dimensionality of ~6 million and of order 100 global bandpower parameters. On a subset of the problem where an exact but more expensive HMC solution is feasible, we verify that MUSE yields nearly optimal results. We also demonstrate that existing spectrum-based forecasting tools which ignore pixel-masking underestimate predicted error bars by only ~10%. This method is a promising path forward for fast lensing and delensing analyses which will be necessary for future CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, or CMB-S4, and can complement or supersede existing HMC approaches. The success of MUSE on this challenging problem strengthens its case as a generic procedure for a broad class of high-dimensional inference problems.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Effect of planform taper on hover performance of an advanced AH-64 model rotor
The hover performance of a 27 percent scale model baseline rotor and advanced rotor with a 3:1 tapered tip (TR3) for the AH-64 attack helicopter was investigated and compared. Hover results from a previously tested advanced rotor with a 5:1 tapered tip (TR5) were also compared. Rotor thrust was varied over a range for two tip Mach numbers. The results indicated that the TR3 blades had improved performance compared with the TR5 blades, and both the TR3 and TR5 blades were superior to the baseline rotor. The additional margin in performance for the TR3 blades was likely due to an increase in blade area and Reynolds number in the tip region of the blades.
Kelley, Henry L.↗
Assessing the effect of regularization on the molecular properties predicted by SCAN and self-interaction corrected SCAN meta-GGA
Recent regularization of the SCAN meta-GGA functional (rSCAN) has simplified the numerical complexities of the SCAN functional, alleviating SCAN's stringent demand on the numerical integration grids to some extent. The regularization of rSCAN, however, results in the breaking of some constraints such as the uniform electron gas limit, the slowly varying density limit, and coordinate scaling of the iso-orbital indicator. Here, we assess the effects of regularization on the electronic, structural, vibrational, and magnetic properties of molecules by comparing the SCAN and rSCAN predictions. The properties studied include atomic energies, atomization energies, ionization potentials, electron affinities, barrier heights, infrared intensities, dissociation and reaction energies, spin moments of molecular magnets, and isomer ordering of water clusters. Our results show that rSCAN requires less dense numerical grids and gives very similar results to those of SCAN for all properties examined with the exception of atomization energies, which are worsened in rSCAN. We also examine the performance of self-interaction-corrected (SIC) rSCAN with respect to SIC-SCAN using the Perdew–Zunger (PZ) SIC method. The PZSIC method uses orbital densities to compute one-electron self-interaction errors and places an even more stringent demand on numerical grids. Our results show that SIC-rSCAN gives marginally better performance than SIC-SCAN for almost all properties studied in this work with numerical grids that are on average half or less as dense as that needed for SIC-SCAN.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Estimated performance and future potential of solar dynamic and photovoltaic power systems for selected LEO and HEO missions
Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) and thermal dynamic power systems for application to selected Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and High Eccentric Orbit (Energy) (HEO) missions are characterized in the regime 7 to 35 kWe. Input parameters to the characterization are varied corresponding to anticipated introduction of improved or new technologies. Comparative assessment is made between the two power system types utilizing newly emerging technologies in cells and arrays, energy storage, optical surfaces, heat engines, thermal energy storage, and thermal management. The assessment is made to common ground rules and assumptions. The four missions (space station, sun-synchronous, Van Allen belt and GEO) are representative of the anticipated range of multi-kWe earth orbit missions. System characterizations include all required subsystems, including power conditioning, cabling, structure, to deliver electrical power to the user. Performance is estimated on the basis of three different levels of component technology: (1) state-of-art, (2) near-term, and (3) advanced technologies. These range from planar array silicon/IPV nickel hydrogen batteries and Brayton systems at 1000 K to thin film GaAs with high energy density secondary batteries or regenerative fuel cells and 1300 K Stirling systems with ultra-lightweight concentrators and radiators. The system estimates include design margin for performance degradations from the known environmental mechanisms (micrometeoroids and space debris, atomic oxygen, electron and proton flux) which are modeled and applied depending on the mission. The results give expected performance, mass and drag of multi-kWe earth orbiting solar power systems and show how overall system figures of merit will improve as new component technologies are incorporated.
Bents, David J.↗
Chemolithoautotroph distributions across the subsurface of a convergent margin
Subducting oceanic crusts release fluids rich in biologically relevant compounds into the overriding plate, fueling subsurface chemolithoautotrophic ecosystems. To understand the impact of subsurface geochemistry on microbial communities, we collected fluid and sediments from 14 natural springs across a ~200 km transect across the Costa Rican convergent margin and performed shotgun metagenomics. The resulting 404 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) cluster into geologically distinct regions based on MAG abundance patterns: outer forearc-only (25% of total relative abundance), forearc/arc-only (38% of total relative abundance), and delocalized (37% of total relative abundance) clusters. In the outer forearc, Thermodesulfovibrionia, Candidatus Bipolaricaulia, and Firmicutes have hydrogenotrophic sulfate reduction and Wood-Ljungdahl (WL) carbon fixation pathways. In the forearc/arc, Anaerolineae, Ca. Bipolaricaulia, and Thermodesulfovibrionia have sulfur oxidation, nitrogen cycling, microaerophilic respiration, and WL, while Aquificae have aerobic sulfur oxidation and reverse tricarboxylic acid carbon fixation pathway. Transformation-based canonical correspondence analysis shows that MAG distribution corresponds to concentrations of aluminum, iron, nickel, dissolved inorganic carbon, and phosphate. While delocalized MAGs appear surface-derived, the subsurface chemolithoautotrophic, metabolic, and taxonomic landscape varies by the availability of minerals/metals and volcanically derived inorganic carbon. Furthermore, the WL pathway persists across all samples, suggesting that this versatile, energy-efficient carbon fixation pathway helps shape convergent margin subsurface ecosystems.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California
Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Regolith Particle Erosion of Material in Aerospace Environments
This paper studies the effect of exposing thermal control S13GP:6N/LO-I white paint, Kapton flex cable, fiber optic cable, HEPA filter, and M55J graphite composite to high-velocity regolith environment that spacecraft landing on Mars are commonly exposed to. Due to the similarity between the Mars 2020 Rover design and Mars Science Laboratory design, it is expected that the Mars 2020 rover will be exposed to a similar high-speed regolith environment that the Mars Science Laboratory was exposed to. This environment is replicated to test the survivability of susceptible materials. The testing is performed at the University of Dayton Research Institute in Dayton, Ohio. The experiments expose different materials to basaltic–like particles ranging in size from approximately 40 μm to 2 cm, at velocities ranging from 19 m/s to 250 m/s, with varied particle fluxes (measured in mg/cm2). Depending on the size of the particle used, the particles can either embed in or erode the material. Posttest analysis shows that all materials tested will survive the expected environment observed during the Mars 2020 landing event. Some materials are tested to failure in order to better characterize material response. Materials that fail in some test scenarios include the paint, fiber optic cable, and the graphite composite. After being exposed to regolith, the α/ε ratio of the paint increased by ~37% due to particles embedding in the paint. Darkening of the paint can negatively affect thermal control of the rover. With high particle mass fluxes, the paint eventually degraded enough to expose the aluminum substrate. When impacted by a 1.5 cm particle traveling at 20 m/s, the fiber optic cable did not sever, but the impact did cause the cable to deform enough to crack the glass, which resulted in a significant increase in attenuation, rendering the cable unable to transmit data. The graphite composite also failed when exposed to high particle fluxes. All of the observed failures occurred for test cases above the expected landing environment with significant margin. Tests performed beyond the requirements help characterize how well these materials will survive in even more extreme environments for future missions.
Abid, Mohamed↗
Multi-fidelity modeling to predict the rheological properties of a suspension of fibers using neural networks and Gaussian processes
Unveiling the rheological properties of fiber suspensions is of paramount interest to many industrial applications. There are multiple factors, such as fiber aspect ratio and volume fraction, that play a significant role in altering the rheological behavior of suspensions. Three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of coupled differential equations of the suspension of fibers are computationally expensive and time-consuming. Machine learning algorithms can be trained on the available data and make predictions for the cases where no numerical data are available. However, some widely used machine learning surrogates, such as neural networks, require a relatively large training dataset to produce accurate predictions. Multi-fidelity models, which combine high-fidelity data from numerical simulations and less expensive lower fidelity data from resources such as simplified constitutive equations, can pave the way for more accurate predictions. Here, we focus on neural networks and the Gaussian processes with two levels of fidelity, i.e., high and low fidelity networks, to predict the steady-state rheological properties, and compare them to the single-fidelity network. High-fidelity data are obtained from direct numerical simulations based on an immersed boundary method to couple the fluid and solid motion. The low-fidelity data are produced by using constitutive equations. Multiple neural networks and the Gaussian process structures are used for the hyperparameter tuning purpose. Results indicate that with the best choice of hyperparameters, both the multi-fidelity Gaussian processes and neural networks are capable of making predictions with a high level of accuracy with neural networks demonstrating marginally better performance.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots
The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of WRF simulation of deep convection in the US Southern Great Plains
The Southern Great Plains (SGP) exhibits a relatively high frequency of periods with extremely high rainfall rates (RR) and hail. Here, seven months of 2017 are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied at convection permitting resolution with the Mibrandt-Yau microphysics scheme. Simulation fidelity is evaluated, particularly during intense convective events, using data from ASOS stations, dual-polarization RADAR, gridded data sets and observations at the DoE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site. The spatial gradients and temporal variability of precipitation and the cumulative density functions for both RR and wind speeds exhibit fidelity. Odds ratios >1 indicate WRF is also skillful in simulating high composite reflectivity (cREF, used as a measure of widespread convection) and RR > 5 mmhr –1 over the domain. Detailed analyses of the ten days with highest spatial coverage of cREF >30 dBZ show spatially similar reflectivity fields and high RR in both RADAR data and WRF simulations. However, during periods of high reflectivity, WRF exhibits a positive bias in terms of very high RR (> 25 mmhr –1 ) and hail occurrence, and during the summer and transition months, maximum hail size is underestimated. For some renewable energy applications fidelity is required with respect to the joint probabilities of wind speed and RR and/or hail. While partial fidelity is achieved for the marginal probabilities, performance during events of critical importance to these energy applications is currently not sufficient. Further research into optimal WRF configurations in support of potential damage quantification for these applications is warranted.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying Thermal Output of Energetic Materials (LDRD Final Report)
We present the results of an LDRD project, funded by the Nuclear Deterrence IA, to develop capabilities for quantitative assessment of pyrotechnic thermal output. The thermal battery igniter is used as an exemplar system. Experimental methodologies for thermal output evaluation are demonstrated here, which can help designers and engineers better specify pyrotechnic components , provide thermal output guidelines for new formulations, and generate new metrics for assessing component performance and margin given a known failure condition. A heat-transfer analysis confirms that the dominant mode of energy transfer from the pyrotechnic output plume to the heat pellet is conduction via deposition of hot titanium particles. A simple lumped-parameter model of titanium particle heat transfer and a detailed multi-phase model of deposition heat transfer are discussed. Pyrotechnic function, as defined by "go/no-go" standoff testing of a heat pellet, is correlated with experimentally measured igniter plume temperature, titanium metal particle temperature, and energy deposition. Three high-speed thermal diagnostics were developed for this task. A three-color imaging pyrometer, acquiring 100k images per second on three color channels, is deployed for measurement of titanium particle temperatures. Complimentary measurements of the overall igniter plume emission ("color") temperature were conducted using a transmission-grating spectrograph in line-imaging mode. Heat flux and energy deposition to a cold wall at the heat-pellet location were estimated using an eroding thermocouple probe, with a frequency response of ~5 kHz. Ultimate "go/no-go" function in the igniter/heat-pellet system was correlated with quantitative thermal metrics, in particular surface energy deposition and plume color temperature. Titanium metal-particle and plume color temperatures both experience an upper bound approximated by the 3245-K boiling point of TiO 2 . Average metal-particle temperatures remained nearly constant for all standoff distances at T = 2850 K, ± 300 K, while plume color temperature and heat flux decay with standoff—suggesting that heat-pellet failure results from a drop in metal-particle flux and not particle temperature. At 50% likelihood of heat-pellet failure, peak time-resolved plume color temperatures drop well below TiO 2 boiling to ~2000 - 2200 K, near the TiO 2 melting point. Estimates of peak heat flux decline from up to 1 GW/m 2 for near-field standoffs to below 320 MW/m 2 at 50% failure likelihood.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Qualification flight tests of the Viking decelerator system.
The Balloon Launched Decelerator Test (BLDT) series conducted at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) during July and August of 1972 flight qualified the NASA Viking '75 decelerator system at conditions bracketing those expected for Mars. This paper discusses the decelerator system design requiremnts, compares the test results with prior work, and discusses significant considerations leading to successful qualification in earth's atmosphere. The Viking decelerator system consists of a single-stage mortar-deployed 53-foot nominal diameter disk-gap-band parachute. Full-scale parachutes were deployed behind a full-scale simulated Viking vehicle at Mach numbers from 0.47 to 2.18 and dynamic pressures from 6.9 to 14.6 psf. Analyses show that the system is qualified with sufficient margin to perform successfully for the Viking mission.
Moog, R. D.↗