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107 records · Page 6

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Xue, Yan↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Chl-a↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

OBM↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Coccolithophores↗

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗

Investigating Meteorological Conditions Associated with Valley Fever Outbreaks in Southwestern United States

According to CDC, a sharp increase in reported Valley fever cases (Coccidioidomycosis) has been found between 2009 and 2012. Environmental conditions play an important role for Valley fever outbreaks. For example, dust storms can significantly increase the amount of the fungus Coccidioides in the air and associated strong winds can transport the fungus to other areas. In last year’s AGU session, we reported a preliminary study to investigate hydrometeorological conditions and their connection with dust storm activities in southwestern United States. We found wind is a major contributing factor for the seasonal variation of dust storm activities. Interannual variation of the regional hydrometeorological conditions are closely linked to the large-scale environment such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Strong winds are linked with a number of weather events such cold front passages, thunderstorms that produce downbursts and strong winds, the Santa Ana winds, etc. In this presentation, we will report the results of our latest investigation on meteorological conditions associated with Valley fever outbreaks in southwestern United States, using NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation System), GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement), and MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) hourly datasets, from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC).

Liu, Zhong↗

Editorial: North Pacific Environment and Paleoclimate from the Late Pleistocene to Present

The vast area of the North Pacific, spanning ~55° longitude, represents a challenge for documenting and understanding the geologic history of ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial environmental change. This special issue highlights site-specific analyses to address various questions and provides clues that arise in response to continued North Pacific warming today in a rapidly changing climate (Figure 1). The emergence of new methods and novel application of existing methods serve to enhance our fundamental understanding of natural modes of climate variability driven by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, including the role of external (e.g., insolation) vs. internal forcing [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Included in this volume are geographically diverse studies that present new and traditional methods for the interpretation of climate records drawn from pollen, macrofossils, tree rings, diatoms, grain size, and glacial studies. Many provide new geographic comparisons, such as Kamchatka and Hawaii, or emerge from novel geologic archives and environments, such as the marine shelf, a thermokarst lake, and a fossil forest.

Jones, Miriam C.↗

Diagnosing Changes In Earth's Top-Of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget Since 2000

Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) is a key indicator of the climate system as it describes the delicate balance between how much of the sun’s energy reaching Earth is absorbed and how much thermal infrared radiation is emitted back to space. It is now well established that there is a positive net imbalance in ERB of 0.5-1 Wm-2. This imbalance, referred to as Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), is shaped by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and the climate system’s response to the forcing.When averaged over a long period, a positive EEI leads to an increase in surface temperature, sea levelrise, ocean heat content, melting of snow and sea-ice, and an acceleration of the hydrological cycle.EEI is also influenced by internal climate variability at interannual (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)) and longer timescales (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)). Here we use CERES data toshow that since 2000, EEI has been increasing at a rate of 0.04+-0.03 Wm-2 per yr, corresponding to 0.8 Wm-1 over the 20-year CERES record. To understand the underlying causes for this increase, we analyze the CERES data in the context of internal climate variability indices and regional pattern changes. We also perform a partial radiative perturbation analysis that decomposes the TOA SW and LW radiation variations in terms of contributions by clouds, aerosols, surface albedo, temperature,water vapor and other gases (e.g., ozone, carbon dioxide, methane, etc.).

Norman G Loeb↗

The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century

Substantial marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric changes have occurred over the Greenland region during the last century. Several studies have documented record‐levels of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summer melt extent during the 2000s and 2010s, but relatively little work has been carried out to assess regional climatic changes in other seasons. Here, we focus on the less studied cold‐season (i.e., autumn and winter) climate, tracing the long‐term (1873–2013) variability of Greenland's air temperatures through analyses of coastal observations and model‐derived outlet glacier series and their linkages with North Atlantic sea ice, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation indices. Through a statistical framework, large amounts of west and south Greenland temperature variance (up to r^2~50%) can be explained by the seasonally‐contemporaneous combination of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; hereafter the combination of GBI and NAO is termed GBI). Lagged and concomitant regional sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seasonal indices account for small amounts of residual air temperature variance (r^2<~10%) relative to the GBI. The correlations between GBI and cold‐season temperatures are predominantly positive and statistically‐significant through time, while regional SIC conditions emerge as a significant covariate from the mid‐20th century through the conclusion of the study period. The inclusion of the cold‐season Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in multivariate analyses bolsters the air temperature variance explained by the North Atlantic regional predictors, suggesting the remote, background climate state is important to long‐term Greenland temperature variability. These findings imply that large‐scale tropospheric circulation has a strong control on surface temperature over Greenland through dynamic and thermodynamic impacts and stress the importance of understanding the evolving two‐way linkages between the North Atlantic marine and atmospheric environment in order to more accurately predict Greenland seasonal climate variability and change through the 21st century.

air temperatures↗

Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP

Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.

Robert Adler↗

Continental Patterns of Bird Migration Linked to Climate Variability

For nearly 100 years, avian migration studies have divided North America into three or four primary flyways, at times based on subjective approaches or just for convenience. Those studies often fail to adequately reflect a critical characterization of migration —phenology. This shortcoming has been partly due to the lack of reliable continental-scale data, a gap filled by our current study. Here, we leveraged unique radar-based data quantifying migration phenology and used an objective regionalization approach to revisit the traditional spatial framework. Consequently, we identified two regions with distinct inter annual variability of spring migration across the contiguous U.S. This new data-driven framework has enabled us to explore the climatic cues affecting the inter annual variability of migration phenology, “specific to each region” across North America. For example, our “two-region” approach allowed us to identify an east-west dipole pattern in migratory behavior linked to atmospheric Ross by waves. Also, we revealed a low-frequency variability in migration movements over the western U.S. that is inversely related with temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our spatial platform would facilitate future work on better understanding the mechanisms responsible for broad-scale migration phenology and its potential future changes.

Atmosphere↗

High Latitude Atmospheric Rivers: Teleconnections and Impacts

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale features that act as moisture transport vehicles by moving water vapor poleward. They are typically found in storm tracks and often have profound implications for regional hydroclimate. For high latitude locales such as Antarctica and the Arctic, ARs are fewer in number but often have an outsized impact by either producing significant snow accumulation events, or, depending on their thermal characteristics, initiating melt events on ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. In this study, we apply both reanalysis and climate model data to evaluate high latitude ARs for both the Arctic and Antarctic in the context of teleconnections and modes of variability. Specifically, we fold in both MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis as well as historical and climate change simulations from the CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, Version 2) and E3SMv2 (Energy Exascale Earth System Model, v2) with multiple ensemble members to better understand natural variability versus climate change signals. An overview of AR climatology and impacts will be presented, including a baseline uncertainty quantification analysis using data from ARTMIP (the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project). AR impacts during specific modes of variability will be characterized by diagnosing precipitation and boundary layer temperature associated with Ars influencing the cryosphere. Modes of variability investigated include the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), PSA2 (Pacific South American Mode 2), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), and the AO (Arctic Oscillation).

Atmospheric Rivers↗

VfOx in GEER: Functional Test of a Venus Oxygen Fugacity Sensor

VfOx, which stands for “Venus Oxygen Fugacity” is the DAVINCI mission’s Student Collaboration Experiment (SCE); a small single- objective sensor used to measure the partial pressure of molecular oxygen in Venus’ lower atmosphere. Through the mission timeline, VƒOx will be designed, fabricated, tested, operated, and results analyzed by undergraduate and graduate students mentored by the DAVINCI team in partnership with Johns Hopkins University and other institutions. The simple principal of VƒOx is a ceramic O 2 sensor derived from common applications, utilizing diffusion of O -2 ions between a standard (PdO) inside the sensor and the target atmosphere measured by a mW level voltage that depends directly on the standard/sample fO 2 ratio. A 60-day environmental test of a prototype design of the sensor was conducted at the Glenn Extreme Environment Rig (GEER) from August to October of 2022, in which VƒOx (Fig. 1) was placed inside the experimental chamber (Fig. 2) and brought to Venus surface temperature (460 °C) and pressure (92 bar) conditions, in a Venus like atmosphere (96.5% CO 2 , 3.5% N 2 ) that included trace gases like SO 2 , maintained by occasional “boosts” of extra gas during the experimental run.

Noam R. Izenberg↗

Zeolite supported Pd catalysts for the complete oxidation of methane: A critical review

This review summarizes the recent literature reports on the development of zeolite supported Pd catalysts for the complete oxidation of methane. In-depth analysis reveals that different types of zeolite framework structures, regardless of the dimensionality, pore opening structure, and channel size, have little influence on the methane oxidation activity or the on-stream stability of the supported Pd catalysts. In contrast, the Si/Al ratio of a zeolite support plays a critical role. Both the catalytic activity and the on-stream stability of a Pd/zeolite catalyst increase with the increase of the Si/Al ratio. Catalysts supported on siliceous zeolites consistently show excellent light-off activity and remarkable on-stream stability whether in a dry or wet feed. Silanol nest defect sites in a siliceous zeolite are proposed to be the anchoring sites promoting the formation and minimizing the sintering of finely dispersed Pd nanoparticles. Remaining challenges in overcoming the sulfur poisoning effect are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗