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NASA NTRS2003

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO’s) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEO’s. An existing program, used to model the NEO threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Planets↗
NASA NTRS1992

Interim Report of the Meteoroid and Debris Special Investigation Group

The LDEF Meteoroid and Debris Special Investigation Group (hereafter M&D SIG) was formed to maximize the data harvest from LDEF by permitting the characterization of the meteoroid and space debris impact record of the entire satellite. Thus, our work is complementary to that of the various M&D PIs, all of whom are members of the SIG. This presentation will summarize recent results and discussions concerning five critical SIG goals: (1) Classification of impactors based upon composition of residues; (2) Small impact (microimpact) features; (3) Impact cratering and penetration data to derive projectile sizes and masses; (4) Particulate flux estimates in low-Earth orbit; (5) The LDEF Meteoroid and Debris database.

Zolensky, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A perspective on the evidence for periodic cometary impacts on earth

Recent suggestions of periodic cometary showers coincident with mass extinctions have prompted a review of the terrestrial cratering record. From the point of view of completeness of search and crater retention, the record used to argue for statistical periodicities is incomplete and may not be representative. Estimates of crater ages are of variable accuracy and precision and, in some cases, different dating methods yield discordant results. It is possible to define through time-series analysis a number of periodicities of different magnitude (about 29, 21, 18.5, and 13.5 m.y.) and phase, depending on which craters are considered the most representative sample of the record. Arguing against periodic cometary showers is the observation that estimates of the average cratering rate in recent time and observations on Apollo bodies are equivalent. In addition, siderophile element data from impact melt rocks suggest a variety of projectile types were responsible for relatively large terrestrial craters. Given these observations, it is concluded that statements regarding periodic cometray showers are not categorical and require evidence beyond arguments based on time-series analyses of an incomplete cratering record.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Controlled Impact Experiments to Understand the Effects of Cohesive Blocks on the Cratering Process

When considering large-scale impact events that occur in the gravity-regime, smallscale target heterogeneities (on order of the projectile diameter) are anticipated to have a minimal effect on the cratering process and are therefore not considered in scaling relations [1-3]. Such heterogeneities and other details of the target's strength and structure, however, become increasingly influential as the magnitude of the impact decreases [4]. At the scale of craters forming mostly in regolith on the Moon (< a few meters), for example, target properties such as cohesive strength, density, porosity, and friction have more leverage than gravity to influence the resultant crater dimensions [5]. Further complications beyond just target properties can manifest in many forms, such as subsurface layers [6]; the presence of random, competent blocks [7]; buried lenses of impact melt; and/or pockets of regolith compacted or indurated to varying degrees by previous impacts. Summing the total effect of target properties and any additional heterogeneities for integration into scaling relations is not straightforward, as each individual parameter will have unequal, and so far, unquantified, effects on the final crater. Even when craters are produced under a best-case scenario of controlled laboratory conditions, understanding the entire relevant parameter space can be a formidable task, and deconvolution of all the contributing factors can be a complex undertaking. To begin the process of quantifying such effects, we are conducting an extensive series of impact experiments to build a framework for the interpretation of craters observed on the characteristically complex surfaces throughout the solar system. Here we present the first, and simplest, configuration to be examined in this multi-year experimental campaign: one in which solitary, cohesive blocks are placed in the path of the projectile’s trajectory at different burial depths in granular, sand targets. Among the variables to be investigated in this configuration are the influence of block size, compressive strength, and burial depth.

impact crater↗
NASA NTRS1980

Meteor Crater: Energy of formation - Implications of centrifuge scaling

Recent work on explosive cratering has demonstrated the utility of performing subscale experiments on a geotechnic centrifuge to develop scaling rules for very large energy events. The present investigation is concerned with an extension of this technique to impact cratering. Experiments have been performed using a projectile gun mounted directly on the centrifuge rotor to launch projectiles into a suitable soil container undergoing centripetal accelerations in excess of 500 G. The pump tube of a two-stage light-gas gun was used to attain impact velocities of approximately 2 km/sec. The results of the experiments indicate that the energy of formation of any large impact crater depends upon the impact velocity. This dependence, shown for the case of Meteor Crater, is consistent with analogous results for the specific energy dependence of explosives and is expected to persist to impact velocities in excess of 25 km/sec.

Schmidt, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Microcraters formed in glass by low density projectiles

Microcraters were produced in soda-lime glass by the impact of low density projectiles of polystyrene (p = 1.06 g/cu cm) with masses between 0.7 and 62 picograms and velocities between 2 and 14 km/s. The morphology of the craters depended on the velocity and the angle of incidence of the projectiles and these are discussed in detail. It was found that the transitions in morphology of the craters formed by polystyrene spheres occurred at higher velocities than they did for more dense projectiles.

Mandeville, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The excavation stage of basin formation - A qualitative model

One of the most complex problems in planetary geology and geophysics is the determination of the nature of the impact cratering processes at scales of tens to thousands of kilometers that produce the complex morphological structures of multiring basins. The cratering process is frequently considered to be divided into three stages, including a short high-pressure stage of initial contact between the projectile and the planetary crust, a longer excavation or cratering flow stage culminating in the formation of a transient crater, and a still longer modification stage during which the transient crater is modified into the observed final geologic form. The transient crater may be considered as the initial boundary condition of the modification stage. In the present investigation, the nature of the transient crater is indicated by the cratering flow field determined from numerical simulations of the excavation stage. Attention is given to empirical and theoretical scaling.

Croft, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard

The small fraction of the asteroids with Earth-crossing or Earth-approaching orbits is of special interest to us because many will eventually impact our planet. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics, although we have little information on the possible variability of this flux over time. The effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts (such as the KT impactor 65 million years ago), nuclear explosive testing, and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile roughly 15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near one million megatons energy. The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. These include the relative risk of different impact scenarios and the associated costs and probability of success of countermeasures. It is generally agreed that the first step is to survey and catalogue the thousand-or-so Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and we review the status of the Spaceguard NEA Survey. We compare the efficiency of various ground and space-based approaches and consider the challenges of international coordination and the problems and opportunities associated with communicating the results with the press and the public. It is also important to reflect on how the impact hazard might be dealt with by both national governments and international decision-making bodies, and to anticipate ways of mitigating the danger if a NEA were located on an apparent Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS1991

Vapor plumes: A neglected aspect of impact cratering

When a meteorite or comet strikes the surface of the planet or satellite at typical interplanetary velocities of 10-40 km/sec, the projectile and a quantity of the target body vaporize and expand out of the growing crater at high speed. The crater continues to grow after the vapor plume has formed and the series of ejecta deposits is laid down ballistically while the crater collapses into its final morphology. Although the vapor plume leaves little evidence of its existence in the crater structure of surface deposits, it may play a major role in a number of impact-related processes. The vapor plume expanding away from the site of an impact carries 25-50 percent of the total impact energy. Although the plume's total mass is only a few times the mass of the projectile, its high specific energy content means that it is the fastest and most highly shocked material in the cratering event. The mean velocity of expansion can easily exceed the escape velocity of the target plane, so that the net effect of a sufficiently high-speed impact is to erode material from the planet.

Melosh, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Asteroid 243 IDA and its satellite

A high-resolution mosaic of Ida shows a highly irregular body (roughly 56 km long), heavily covered with craters, with many interesting geological features, including grooves, blocks, chutes, dark-floored craters, and crater chains. A satellite of Ida, with a preliminary designation of 1993 (243) 1, was discovered in orbit around Ida. It is approximately 1.5 km in diameter, has an albedo and spectral reflectance not grossly different from Ida, and orbits Ida in a prograde direction with a period of roughly 20 hr. No other comparable-sized satellites have been found near Ida. New pictures of the opposite side of Ida reveal an irregular, dog-bone shape, with a prominent gouge that seems to separate Ida into two chief components. A V-shaped valley, well shown in the highest-resolution view of Ida returned in April, may mark a modest expression on the September face of the more dramatic feature on the back side. Ida's dense population of craters shows a wide diversity of morphologies, consistent with the surface having been subjected to saturated bombardment by smaller projectiles. Assuming the same projectile flux applies to Ida was used in deriving Gaspra's cratering age of about 200 m.y., and assuming that Gaspra and Ida both have the same impact strength, then the age of Ida's surface is calculated to be 1-2 b.y. This is considerably older than expected from other evidence concerning the Koronis family. Our favored explanation of Ida's satellite is that it (or a precursor satellite from which the present satellite was derived) formed during the catastrophic disruption event that formed Ida itself and formed the Koronis family of asteroids. Perhaps, instead, the satellite is a block ejected from a cratering impact. In any case, smaller blocks visible on some parts of Ida are more certain to be crater ejecta, whether or not they were ever temporary satellites.

Chapman, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Zhamanshin and Aouelloul - Craters produced by impact of tektite-like glasses?

It is shown that the enhanced abundance of siderophile elements and chromium in tektite-like glasses from the two impact craters of Zhamanshin and Aouelloul cannot be explained as a result of contamination of the country rock by meteorites nor, probably, comets. The pattern is, however, like that found in certain Australasian tektites, and in Ivory Coast tektites. It is concluded, in agreement with earlier suggestions by Campbell-Smith and Hey, that these craters were formed by the impact of large masses of tektite-like glass, of which the glasses which were studied are fragments. It follows that it is necessary, in considering an impact crater, to bear in mind that the projectile may have been a glass.

O'Keefe, John A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Numerical modeling of impact erosion of atmospheres: Preliminary results

It is clear from the great diversity of atmospheres among the terrestrial planets that their formation and evolution must have depended on a balance among a number of different processes. One of these processes is atmospheric erosion by impacts, which may have been particularly effective on Mars. The reason is that geomorphic evidence on Mars suggests that this planet had, early in its history, dense enough atmosphere to sustain active precipitation over geologically significant periods of time. Analytic calculations indicate that neither the projectile entering the atmosphere nor the main crater ejecta can cause the lose of significant amounts of atmosphere. The vapor plume that is formed, however, expands rapidly as its internal energy is converted into kinetic energy, and may blow off the overlying atmosphere. A model of this part of the impact/atmosphere interaction predicts Mars could have lost a substantial early atmosphere by impact erosion alone. Although our more detailed calculations, which took into account the anisotropy of the atmosphere with respect to zenith angle, show that the process isn't quite as effective, they still indicate the probability of substantial atmospheric loss from Mars. The first results from 2-D hydrocode runs are discussed. These include two runs which make most of the same simplifying approximations as the analytic models, in order to compare the analytic and numerical results directly, and one run (as yet incomplete) that models the full impact.

Vickery, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Constraints on the Nature and Distribution of Iridium Host Phases at the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary: Implications for Projectile Identity and dispersal on impact

Among Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sites worldwide, variations in the concentrations and ratios of elements commonly enriched in meteorites complicate traditional geochemical attempts at impactor identification. Yet they may provide constraints on the physical and chemical processes associated with large-body disruption and dispersal, as well as with diagenesis of projectile components. To this end, we continue our efforts to identify the mineral host-phases of projectile-derived elements, particularly for Ir, and to document their partitioning between crater deposits and ejecta resulting from the Chicxulub basin-forming impact. Building on earlier work, we used INAA to measure Ir concentrations in successively smaller splits of finely powdered impact melt breccia from the Chicxulub Crater in Mexico (sample Y6Nl9-R(b)), and K/T boundary fish clay from Stevns Klint, Denmark (sample FC-1, split from 40 kg of homogenized material intended as an analytical standard). Results for the Chicxulub sample show a heterogeneous Ir distribution and document that at least five discrete Ir-bearing host phases were isolated in subsequent splits, having Ir masses equivalent to pure Ir spheres from about 0.8 to about 3.5 mm in diameter. Three of these are within a sufficiently reduced mass of powder to warrant searching for them using backscattered electron microscopy. In contrast, successively smaller splits of the Stevns Klint fish clay show no statistically significant deviation from the reported value of 32 +/- 2 ng/g Ir, suggesting a uniform Ir host-phase distribution. For the smallest split obtained thus far (100 +/- 40 ng/g Ir), a pure Ir sphere of equivalent Ir mass would be <0.05 min in diameter. (n.b. Although homogenizing and sieving of FC-1 to <75 min obviously obscured variations in stratigraphic distribution, it is unlikely to have affected the size-frequency distribution of Ir host phases.) We previously identified micrometer-scale Ir host phases by electron microscopy in melt-rock samples from two widely separated drill holes at the Chicxulub Basin, including a replicate split of Y6-NI9-R. One is an aggregate of subhedral Ir metal grains enclosed in silicate, in which no other Pt group elements (PGE) were detected. A second particle with twice the mass as the first, concentrated predominantly in a single grain, is associated with minor concentrations of Os, Ru, and Pt, and with adhering particles of corundum and perovskite. A third Ir-rich particle, with a greater apparent Os concentration, was identified before being lost as a result of charging under the electron beam. In addition to demonstrating the preservation of projectile components within the Chicxulub Crater, analogous phase associations in Ca- and Al-rich inclusions (CAI) from C2 and C3 chondrites suggest to us that these melt-rock Ir host phases are relics from a carbonaceous chondrite K/T boundary impactor Although the obviously low Ru/Ir ratios of the Chicxulub Ir host phases are qualitatively consistent with suggested PGE fractionation with distance during condensation in an ejecta cloud, it seems difficult to explain the accumulation of the about 3 x 10(exp 11) Ir atoms required to form a about 10(exp -10) g nugget of pure Ir metal within a jet of vaporized projectile expanding at 1-4 km/s, or to effectively exclude or remove commonly alloyed PGE and siderophile elements by fractionation processes resulting from condensation, oxidation, sulfidization, exsolution, or autometamorphism during cooling of the melt. We do not dismiss the importance of these processes entirely; on the contrary, other geochemical and mineralogical aspects of the melt rocks require them, and condensation from the expanding ejecta cloud appears to best explain the primary Ir host-phase distribution in the fish clay, as well as the high Ir concentrations associated with spinel-bearing spheroids at the K/T boundary in the Pacific Ocean . If the "relict" hypothesis is correct, micronuggets of other PGEs and alloys, not detected by our INAA screening, should also occur in the melt rocks. Possibly, the discrete host phases with lesser Ir masses are such alloys with subordinate Ir, rather than simply smaller, predominantly Ir-bearing particles. A CAI source for the relics would be consistent with either a comet or an asteroid K/T impact at Chicxulub. (Additional information contained in the original.)

Schuraytz, B. C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Impact melt generation and transport

The results from the first two calculations in a series of continuum mechanics computer code calculations, investigating the effects of variations in impactor mass and velocity on the generation and transport of impact melt, are reported. In the present calculations, the impactor is modeled as a spherical iron projectile with a mass of one trillion grams, and the target as a gabbroic anorthosite (GA) half-space, where the cases calculated have impact velocities of 5 and 15.8 km/sec. Early-time ejection velocities are 1-2 km/sec in both cases. The first calculation results in 0.07 projectile masses of GA being partly or completely melted, with all the melted GA being ejected from the crater, and a maximum impact range for the ejected melted material of 30 km. The second calculation yields 10.4 projectile masses of melted GA, 50% of which is ejected from the crater to ranges of up to about 130 km. Peak shock pressure attenuation with depth is reported for both cases, and transient cavity dynamics are described and compared to that for surface and near-surface explosions.

Orphal, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Study of impact cratering in lunar-like materials

Electrostatically accelerated microparticles are used to perform simulated micrometeoroid impact cratering experiments in oligoclase. Impact craters were obtained using iron, lanthanum hexaboride, and silicon as the projectile materials. Each particle material was impacted at normal incidence and at 30 and 60 deg oblique angles. Tabular data for all impacts are presented and central crater pit diameter normalized to particle diameter and the total spall diameter normalized to particle diameter are plotted vs impact velocity for nine particle/angle combinations and three crystal orientations. Impact crater characteristics are photodocumented as a function of impact velocity for the nine particle/angle combinations and three crystal orientations in oligoclase and at fixed impact velocity for six other minerals.

Roy, N. L.↗