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Results for “PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dosimetric Evaluation of Incorporating Patient Geometric Variations Into Adaptive Plan Optimization Through Probabilistic Treatment Planning in Head and Neck Cancers

Four-dimensional (4D) adaptive radiation therapy (ART) treatment planning is an alternative to the conventional margin-based treatment planning approach. In 4D ART, interfraction patient geometric variations, gathered from computed tomography (CT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) images acquired during the patient treatment course, are directly incorporated into the adaptive plan optimization using a probabilistic treatment planning method. The goal of the present planning study was to evaluate the dosimetric differences between 4D ART and conventional margin-based adaptive planning strategies for head and neck cancers. In addition, we examined whether the dose differences achieved with 4D ART would translate into clinically relevant toxicity reductions using the existing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Probabilistic inference of reaction rate parameters from summary statistics

Here, this investigation tackles the probabilistic parameter estimation problem involving the Arrhenius parameters for the rate coefficient of the chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. This is achieved in a Bayesian inference framework that uses indirect data from the literature in the form of summary statistics by approximating the maximum entropy solution with the aid of approximate bayesian computation. The summary statistics include nominal values and uncertainty factors of the rate coefficient, obtained from shock-tube experiments performed at various initial temperatures. The Bayesian framework allows for the incorporation of uncertainty in the rate coefficient of a secondary reaction, namely OH + H 2 → H 2 O + H, resulting in a consistent joint probability density on Arrhenius parameters for the two rate coefficients. It also allows for uncertainty quantification in numerical ignition predictions while conforming with the published summary statistics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Second-Order Stationary Solutions for Fermions in an External Coulomb Field

We have studied self-conjugate second-order equations with spinor wavefunctions for fermions moving in an external Coulomb field. For stationary states, the equations are characterized by separated states with positive and negative energies, which render probabilistic interpretation possible. For the Coulomb field of attraction, the energy spectrum of the second-order equation coincides with the spectrum of the Dirac equation, while the probability densities of states are slightly different. For a Coulomb field of repulsion, there exists an impermeable potential barrier with radius depending on the classical electron radius and on the electron energy. The existence of the impermeable barrier does not contradict the results of experiment for determining the inner electron structure and does not affect (in the lowest order of perturbation theory) the Coulomb electron scattering cross section. The existence of the impermeable barrier can lead to positron confinement in supercritical nuclei with Z ≥ 170 in case of realization of spontaneous emission of vacuum electron–positron pairs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Degradation of the characteristics of GaAs bipolar transistors with a thin base due to the formation in them of nanometer-sized clusters of radiation-induced defects as a result of irradiation with neutrons

Calculation is performed for a flux of charge carriers in the structure of a GaAs bipolar transistor with a thin base in the case where a single cluster of radiation-induced defects is formed in the operating region of a transistor. It is shown that the site of the appearance of a cluster of radiation-induced defects greatly affects the degree of degradation of the gain of a bipolar transistor. The probabilistic assessment of radiation-induced puncture of the base in relation to its thickness and to the neutron fluence is obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Continuous-Time Models for Longitudinal Data

This software is used to estimate a probabilistic continuous-time model from data. The models capture nonlinear associations between variables that change over time. They can be used to infer future values of variables. These tools were used in the manuscript entitled "Continuous-Time Probabilistic Models for Longitudinal Electronic Health Records."

Kaplan, AlanD↗

Robust Uncertainty Quantification using Response Surface Approximations of Discontinuous Functions

This paper considers response surface approximations for discontinuous quantities of interest. Our objective is not to adaptively characterize the manifold defining the discontinuity. Instead, we utilize an epistemic description of the uncertainty in the location of a discontinuity to produce robust bounds on sample-based estimates of probabilistic quantities of interest. We demonstrate that two common machine learning strategies for classification, one based on nearest neighbors (Voronoi cells) and one based on support vector machines, provide reasonable descriptions of the region where the discontinuity may reside. In higher dimensional spaces, we demonstrate that support vector machines are more accurate for discontinuities defined by smooth manifolds. We also show how gradient information, often available via adjoint-based approaches, can be used to define indicators to effectively detect a discontinuity and to decompose the samples into clusters using an unsupervised learning technique. Numerical results demonstrate the epistemic bounds on probabilistic quantities of interest for simplistic models and for a compressible fluid model with a shock-induced discontinuity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)

The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Research Methodology for Grinding Systems

A research methodology is proposed for grinding systems, for the example of gear grinding by copying on CNC machine tools. In this approach, the system is characterized in terms of input, state, and output. Methods of modeling, optimization, and control at the production and preproduction stages are described. Analysis is possible on the basis of probabilistic and frequency approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Assembly of a Ball Screw

The assembly of ball screws is considered theoretically and experimentally in the case where the screw and nut are combined with an optimal combination of systematic and random errors in the screw pitch (optimal pitch error ratio).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Flexible Production Systems with Probabilistic Perturbations

Probabilistic perturbations associated with scattering of the operating periods and equipment faults in flexible production systems are considered. The perturbations are taken into account in computer simulation of the operation of a flexible production system. The proposed modeling application is described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Perturbations in Flexible Production Systems

In formulating the engineering principles for flexible production systems, the probabilistic perturbations of their operation must be taken into account. A set of computational experiments based on a special computer application is described. The place of the proposed method in the overall predesign sequence is established.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Disintegration of the Aged Open Cluster Berkeley 17

We present the analysis of the morphological shape of Berkeley 17, the oldest known open cluster (∼10 Gyr), using the probabilistic star counting of Pan-STARRS point sources, and confirm its core-tail shape, plus an antitail, previously detected with the 2MASS data. The stellar population, as diagnosed by the color–magnitude diagram and theoretical isochrones, shows many massive members in the clusters core, whereas there is a paucity of such members in both of the tails. This manifests mass segregation in this aged star cluster with the low-mass members being stripped away from the system. It has been claimed that Berkeley 17 is associated with an excessive number of blue straggler candidates. A comparison of nearby reference fields indicates that about half of these may be field contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probabilistic evaluation of on-line checks in fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems

The analysis of fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems that use concurrent error detection (CED) schemes is much more difficult than the analysis of conventional fault-tolerant architectures. Various analytical techniques have been proposed to evaluate CED schemes deterministically. However, these approaches are based on worst-case assumptions related to the failure of system components. Often, the evaluation results do not reflect the actual fault tolerance capabilities of the system. A probabilistic approach to evaluate the fault detecting and locating capabilities of on-line checks in a system is developed. The various probabilities associated with the checking schemes are identified and used in the framework of the matrix-based model. Based on these probabilistic matrices, estimates for the fault tolerance capabilities of various systems are derived analytically.

Nair, V. S. S.↗

An Approach to Experimental Design for the Computer Analysis of Complex Phenomenon

The ability to make credible system assessments, predictions and design decisions related to engineered systems and other complex phenomenon is key to a successful program for many large-scale investigations in government and industry. Recently, many of these large-scale analyses have turned to computational simulation to provide much of the required information. Addressing specific goals in the computer analysis of these complex phenomenon is often accomplished through the use of performance measures that are based on system response models. The response models are constructed using computer-generated responses together with physical test results where possible. They are often based on probabilistically defined inputs and generally require estimation of a set of response modeling parameters. As a consequence, the performance measures are themselves distributed quantities reflecting these variabilities and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the values of the performance measures leads to uncertainties in predicted performance and can cloud the decisions required of the analysis. A specific goal of this research has been to develop methodology that will reduce this uncertainty in an analysis environment where limited resources and system complexity together restrict the number of simulations that can be performed. An approach has been developed that is based on evaluation of the potential information provided for each "intelligently selected" candidate set of computer runs. Each candidate is evaluated by partitioning the performance measure uncertainty into two components - one component that could be explained through the additional computational simulation runs and a second that would remain uncertain. The portion explained is estimated using a probabilistic evaluation of likely results for the additional computational analyses based on what is currently known about the system. The set of runs indicating the largest potential reduction in uncertainty is then selected and the computational simulations are performed. Examples are provided to demonstrate this approach on small scale problems. These examples give encouraging results. Directions for further research are indicated.

Rutherford, Brian↗