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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Anomalies Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The species of sparrow identified by foraging under dense thickets, the Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) resides in the Eastern United States, some populations either permanently living in the southeastern US or migratory populations living in the North. The mostly migratory Eastern Towhee has been experiencing population changes since the 1980s in the Eastern Seaboard. This species is increasing during the winter and decreasing during the summer, which is their breeding season. The Christmas Bird Count shows that in the winter, the Eastern Towhee populations have been increasing in their northern wintering range by 0.2625% in Maryland, 0.056% in West Virginia, 0.133% in New Jersey, 0.049% in Virginia, and 0.224% in Delaware from 1984-2019. The Breeding Bird Survey Data shows that in the summer, the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining in the Eastern United States by -4.0635% in Maryland, -3.073% in West Virginia, -15.0722% in New Jersey, -3.9375% in Virginia, and -6.3735% in Delaware from 1984-2015. The average climate anomalies in June range from -0.108 to 0.3705 degrees Celsius while the average climate anomalies in January range from 0.1395 to 0.5014 degrees Celsius. The Eastern Towhee are moving northward towards their northern wintering range during the winter and we explore the hypothesis of northward range shift in association with climate change. Our research displays how the behavior patterns of species are varying due to this stressor and how to better conserve species like the Eastern Towhee.

Mahlet Mesfin↗
NASA NTRS2024

Population Accommodation for NASA Spacesuit and Hardware

The goal of this work is to review the population accommodation principles and methodologies NASA Johnson Space Center has developed for the spacesuit, vehicle hardware, and habitats. NASA has defined the target population characteristics in the Human-System Integration Requirements based on the US Army Anthropometric Survey (ANSUR) database. However, the data was screened to select the cases of 30-50 year old subjects, given the historical characteristics of the crew. Further, accommodation ranges were defined for critical body measurements, as NASA aims to accommodate 1st percentile female to 99th percentile male of the crew-like population. The historical truncation thresholds of 5-95th percentiles were not used. This ensured that the accommodation range was not limited and accounted for the current astronaut population. A simulation study also showed that less than 68% of the population may have remained after multiple measurement truncations due to the anthropometry covariance patterns if the narrower range was retained. The ranges were also adjusted for long-term trends of body shape changes as predicted by the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Overall, the requirements were deemed critical to ensure the fit and accommodation of the new suit and space hardware. The requirements have specifically defined boundary cases for verifications and validations, of which the details have proven useful as standards across the different space programs. The specific use and benefits will be further discussed through case studies at the presentation.

Han Kim↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Chemodynamical Census of the Milky Way's Ultra-Faint Compact Satellites. I. A First Population-Level Look at the Internal Kinematics and Metallicities of 19 Extremely-Low-Mass Halo Stellar Systems

Deep, wide-area photometric surveys have uncovered a population of compact ($r_{1/2} \approx$ 1-15 pc), extremely-low-mass ($M_* \approx$ 20-4000 $M_{\odot}$) stellar systems in the Milky Way halo that are smaller in size than known ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) and substantially fainter than most classical globular clusters (GCs). Very little is known about the nature and origins of this population of "Ultra-Faint Compact Satellites" (UFCSs) owing to a dearth of spectroscopic measurements. Here, we present the first spectroscopic census of these compact systems based on Magellan/IMACS and Keck/DEIMOS observations of 19 individual UFCSs, representing $\sim$2/3 of the known population. We securely measure mean radial velocities for all 19 systems, velocity dispersions for 15 (predominantly upper limits), metallicities for 17, metallicity dispersions for 8, and $\textit{Gaia}$-based mean proper motions for 18. This large new spectroscopic sample provides the first insights into population-level trends for these extreme satellites. We demonstrate that: (1) the UFCSs are kinematically colder, on average, than the UFDs, disfavoring very dense dark matter halos in most cases, (2) the UFCS population is chemically diverse, spanning a factor of $\sim$300 in mean iron abundance ($\rm -3.3 \lesssim [Fe/H] \lesssim -0.8$), with multiple systems falling beneath the "metallicity floor" proposed for GCs, and (3) while some higher-metallicity and/or younger UFCSs are clearly star clusters, the dynamical and/or chemical evidence allows the possibility that up to $\sim$50% of the UFCSs in our sample (9 of 19) may represent the smallest and least-massive galaxies yet discovered.

Cerny, William [Yale U.] (ORCID:0000000316977062)↗
DOE OSTI2024

County Level Annual Population Projections for SSP3 and SSP5

This dataset consist of annual (2020-2100) county-level population projections for the United States (U.S.) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The original decadal state-level data is used as an input to the gridded population data model to downscale the state-level projections for each SSP to a 1 km grid. The 1 km data is then aggregated to the county-level using the 2020 TIGER/Line county shapefiles from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data files are shared as .csv files with the following structure: Rows = Data for individual counties which are identified using their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The FIPS code is stored in the first column. Columns = Each year from 2020-2100 is an individual column. For easier reference, the state name associated with each row is stored in the last column. Values in each cell are the downscaled estimated population for that county-year combination. Values are fractional due to the weighting scheme used in the downscaling. The paper and model source code cited in the "Related Works" section describes the initial source of the population projections.

FIPS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Stellar Populations in Compact Galaxy Groups: a Multi-wavelength Study of HCGs 16, 22, and 42, Their Star Clusters, and Dwarf Galaxies

We present a multi-wavelength analysis of three compact galaxy groups, Hickson compact groups (HCGs) 16, 22, and 42, which describe a sequence in terms of gas richness, from space- (Swift, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and Spitzer) and ground-based (Las Campanas Observatory and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory) imaging and spectroscopy.We study various signs of past interactions including a faint, dusty tidal feature about HCG 16A, which we tentatively age-date at <1 Gyr. This represents the possible detection of a tidal feature at the end of its phase of optical observability. Our HST images also resolve what were thought to be double nuclei in HCG 16C and D into multiple, distinct sources, likely to be star clusters. Beyond our phenomenological treatment, we focus primarily on contrasting the stellar populations across these three groups. The star clusters show a remarkable intermediate-age population in HCG 22, and identify the time at which star formation was quenched in HCG 42. We also search for dwarf galaxies at accordant redshifts. The inclusion of 33 members and 27 "associates" (possible members) radically changes group dynamical masses, which in turn may affect previous evolutionary classifications. The extended membership paints a picture of relative isolation in HCGs 16 and 22, but shows HCG 42 to be part of a larger structure, following a dichotomy expected from recent studies. We conclude that (1) star cluster populations provide an excellent metric of evolutionary state, as they can age-date the past epochs of star formation; and (2) the extended dwarf galaxy population must be considered in assessing the dynamical state of a compact group.

Compact Galaxy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature saw a spike in publications for epidemic models, and a renewed interest in capturing contact networks and geographic movement of populations. There remains a general lack of consensus in the modeling community around best practices for spatiotemporal epi-modeling, specifically as it pertains to the infection rate formulation and the underlying contact or mixing model. We mathematically verify several common modeling assumptions in the literature, to prove when certain choices can provide consistent results across different geographic resolutions, population densities and patterns, and mixing assumptions. The most common infection rate formulation, a computationally low cost per capita infection rate assumption, fails the consistency tests for heterogeneous populations and gravity-weighting assumptions. Future modeling efforts in spatiotemporal disease modeling should be wary of this limitation, particularly when working with more heterogeneous or sparse populations. Our results provide guidance for testing that a model preserves desirable properties even when model inputs mask potential problems due to symmetry or homogeneity. We also provide a recipe for performing this type of verification, strengthening decision support tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Abstract Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chiral population analysis: a real space visualization of X-ray circular dichroism

The microscopic understanding of probing and controlling molecular chirality is of considerable interest. Numerous spectroscopic techniques are capable of monitoring molecular asymmetry and its consequences, ranging from the infrared to the X-ray regime. Resonant X-rays have long been used to investigate local atomic sites within molecules thanks to the localized nature of core electronic transitions. These techniques can be used to determine the extent to which chirality is a local versus a delocalized property. However, how to systematically partition dichroic contributions from the point of view of electronic structure simulations remains an open question. Here, we introduce the concept of chiral population analysis that connects chirality to the atomic orbital picture. In analogy with Mulliken population analysis, which assigns charges to atomic orbitals, chiral populations allow the dichroic response to be distributed among the participating atomic orbitals. This decomposition can be further visualized in real space by representing it in terms of isosurface plots, providing an intuitive way to connect the dichroic response to its origins. Thus chiral population analysis can be particularly useful to assess the extent to which a given electronic transition is sensitive to chirality as a local or global feature of the molecular geometry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the topology of neural manifolds across populations

Neural manifolds summarize the intrinsic structure of the information encoded by a population of neurons. Advances in experimental techniques have made simultaneous recordings from multiple brain regions increasingly commonplace, raising the possibility of studying how these manifolds relate across populations. However, when the manifolds are nonlinear and possibly code for multiple unknown variables, it is challenging to extract robust and falsifiable information about their relationships. We introduce a framework, called the method of analogous cycles, for matching topological features of neural manifolds using only observed dissimilarity matrices within and between neural populations. We demonstrate via analysis of simulations and in vivo experimental data that this method can be used to correctly identify multiple shared circular coordinate systems across both stimuli and inferred neural manifolds. Conversely, the method rejects matching features that are not intrinsic to one of the systems. Further, as this method is deterministic and does not rely on dimensionality reduction or optimization methods, it is amenable to direct mathematical investigation and interpretation in terms of the underlying neural activity. We thus propose the method of analogous cycles as a suitable foundation for a theory of cross-population analysis via neural manifolds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗
DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1971

Vibrational population of the A super 3 sigma sub u/+/ and B super 3 pi sub g states of N2 in normal auroras.

Use of new electron impact excitation cross sections for the six lowest triplet states (A, B, W, C, E, D) of N2, and solution of the coupled equations of statistical equilibrium to obtain the vibrational population of each electronic state. The results show that cascade from high levels of the A super 3 sigma sub u(+) state and from the W super 3 delta sub u state is significant in populating the lower vibrational levels of the B state and hence the character of its ?apparent' excitation cross sections. For the B state excited under auroral conditions, the fraction of the total population due to cascade processes exceeds 25% for all levels lower than 7 and is greater than 80% for B(v' = 0). For the A state under similar conditions, cascade from the B state contributes 50% or more of the total vibrational population for levels lower than 7, and 80% or more for levels below 4. For levels of the A state greater than 7, the A yields B transitions depopulate the levels rapidly and indicate that the Vegard-Kaplan emissions from these higher levels will be weak or totally absent in normal auroras.

Cartwright, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

Newman, W. I.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Kinematic evidence of satellite galaxy populations in the potential wells of first-ranked cluster galaxies

The velocities of 38 centrally positioned galaxies (r much less than 100 kpc) were measured relative to the velocity of the first-ranked galaxy in 14 rich clusters. Analysis of the velocity distribution function of this sample and of previous data shows that the population cannot be fit by a single Gaussian. An adequate fit is obtained if 60 percent of the objects lie in a Gaussian with sigma = 250 km/s and the remainder in a population with sigma = 1400 km/s. All previous data sets are individually consistent with this conclusion. This suggests that there is a bound population of galaxies in the potential well of the central galaxy in addition to the normal population of the cluster core. This is taken as supporting evidence for the galactic cannibalism model of cD galaxy formation.

Cowie, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mass loss and a possible Population II lithium dip

It is shown that the recent observation of a subplateau lithium abundance for a high-surface-temperature Population II star relative to the Population II lithium plateau can be explained by main-sequence mass loss. This explanation is identical to a previously proposed explanation for the Population I lithium dip and predicts a similar dip for Population II. It is assumed that the main-sequence mass loss in both cases is associated with the instability strip intersecting the main sequence. This mass-loss process can also decrease globular cluster ages by about 1 Gyr.

Dearborn, David S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

QSO absorbers - Evidence for a primeval galaxy population

Analyses of QSO absorption-line data including Ly-alpha forest lines, metal-line absorbers, and damped Ly-alpha systems indicate that the various classes of absorbers belong to the same parent population. In particular, the different absorber systems form a contiguous sequence on a total hydrogen surface density, velocity dispersion plane. Thus the Ly-alpha forest absorbers represent the low column density, low-mass end of the larger metallic systems. In the majority of the absorption systems, cooling appears to have played an important role at the epoch of observation, although most systems have not evolved sufficiently to resemble the local galaxy population. Thus they represent a population of primeval, dynamically evolving systems. The data are more easily interpretable for a dark matter dominated universe than for a purely baryonic universe. For a dark to baryonic matter ratio of 10, observations suggest that the ultimate fate of all QSO absorbers is to evolve into the local galaxy population.

Chokshi, Arati↗
NASA NTRS1994

The stellar population in the core of M15

The inner core of the globular cluster M15 within approximately 2 sec of the geometrical center has been explored with high-resolution images taken through several broad-band UV filter with the Faint Object Camera (FOC) on board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Approximately 210 stars in this region down to a 5 sigma detection limit of m(sub 220) = 21.5 were reliably identified and located on a UV - U color magnitude diagram for the first time. A majority of stars (about 70% of the total) observed this way lie above the expected main-sequence turn-off of this cluster and below the sparsely populated horizontal branch. The extension of the main sequence above the turn-off separates this population in two roughly equal components situated to the right and left of this line. Most of the former must be classical blue stragglers while the rest belong to a new, as yet unidentified, population of very blue stars. Possibilities include, but are not restricted to, well-mixed single stars, subdwarfs, and helium white dwarfs. Similar objects are also found just outside the core out to approximately 6 sec from the center, but the brighter, presumably more massive ones, are sharply confined to the core itself. The measured excess of bright blue stars and the relative deficiency of bright red giants in the core are consistent with the blue inward color gradient measured from the ground and imply that dynamical evolution can significantly affect the stellar population in the very dense central regions of a high-concentration globular cluster like M15.

De Marchi, Guido↗
NASA NTRS1994

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

Higdon, J. C.↗