Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Operational decision-making”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2026

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗
DOE OSTI2025

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal CO 2 storage management considering safety constraints in multi-stakeholder multi-site GCS projects: A Markov game perspective

Geological carbon storage (GCS) projects could involve a diverse array of stakeholders or players from public, private, and regulatory sectors, each with different objectives and responsibilities. Given the complexity, scale, and long-term nature of GCS operations, determining whether individual stakeholders can independently optimize their interests — or whether collaborative coalition agreements are needed — remains a central question for effective GCS project planning and management. To access large, high-quality storage resources, future GCS deployment may increasingly occur in geologically connected sites, where shared geological features such as pressure space and reservoir pore capacity can lead to competitive behavior among stakeholders. In this work, we propose a paradigm based on Markov games to quantitatively investigate how different coalition structures affect the goals of stakeholders. We frame this multi-stakeholder multi-site problem as a multi-agent reinforcement learning problem with safety constraints. Our approach enables agents to learn optimal strategies while complying with safety regulations. We present an example where multiple operators are injecting CO 2 into their respective project areas in a geologically connected basin. To address the high computational cost of repeated simulations of high fidelity models, a previously developed surrogate model based on the Embed-to-Control (E2C) framework is employed. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in addressing optimal management of CO 2 storage when multiple stakeholders with different objectives and goals are involved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable and Differentiable Reinforcement Learning for Multi-objective Optimization in Particle Accelerators

Operating particle accelerators involves optimizing multiple goals simultaneously, which can be challenging due to trade-offs among objectives. While evolutionary algorithms like the genetic algorithm (GA) have been used for various Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) tasks, they are not inherently suited for complex control problems. This talk highlights two variations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) for concurrently optimizing heat load and trip rates at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). The problem involves strict constraints on individual states, actions, and overall energy requirements of the beam. First, this talk highlights how differentiability can be harnessed through a Deep Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) approach to address MOO issues within particle accelerators. We examine the DDRL method alongside Model Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL), GA, and Bayesian Optimization (BO). The performance of these methods is assessed by generating a Pareto-front for two objectives. Our findings indicate that DDRL excels in handling high-dimensional problems more effectively than MFRL, BO, and GA. Next, we will show integration of explainable physics-based constraints into RL algorithms to enhance trans- parency and trust in decision-making processes by enabling users to verify that agents adhere to established physical principles. This surrogate function can be modeled using neural networks or sparse dictionary mod- els. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment provided but the surrogate model. In addi- tion, we find that the introduction of a mathematical functional dictionary based surrogate model enables our reinforcement learning algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator controls environments.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Networked Microgrid Topology Reconfiguration to Promote Fairness in Proactive Load Shedding

Increasing occurrences of natural disasters and grid emergency events consistently challenge the safe and reliable operations of power systems. During such emergency situations, system operators may proactively shed load to mitigate risks. However, uncoordinated implementation of load shedding may disrupt electricity supply and even lead to cascading failures. Meanwhile, it is crucial to address potential biases affecting different customers when executing load shedding. This paper addresses the dynamic topology reconfiguration problem for networked microgrids with distributed energy resources under emergency conditions. Specifically, we propose a novel rolling-horizon optimization model that integrates fairness-aware constraints into the networked microgrid topology reconfiguration. Unlike existing approaches that focus solely on efficiency or apply fairness considerations in static settings, our method explicitly incorporates temporal fairness constraints to restrict repeated or excessive load curtailment for load blocks. Moreover, the fairness-aware constraints are specifically developed for the context of dynamic networked microgrid topology reconfiguration, and are designed to be convex or amenable to linear reformulations, which offers a more tractable alternative to traditional models with non-convex formulations. Numerical studies on a modified IEEE 13-bus system and a larger-sized SMART-DS networked microgrid system demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm towards more fairness-aware networked microgrid topology reconfiguration decision-making.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

DeepLynx Ecosystem 2025

Poor data integration and governance continue to plague complex engineering projects, resulting in missed cost, schedule, and performance targets. Departments operate in isolated systems with manual data exchange, creating fragmented information that compounds errors and leads to significant delays and cost overruns. The DeepLynx ecosystem addresses these challenges through an open-source, modular data management platform that transforms fragmented project data into an integrated digital thread. Built on a federated microservice architecture, the ecosystem comprises seven specialized tools centered around DeepLynx Nexus, a unified data catalog with hierarchical organization and graph-based navigation capabilities. The ecosystem includes: DeepLynx Stream for real-time timeseries data ingestion from industrial sources; DeepLynx Ingest for governed data uploads with formal review workflows; DeepLynx Lattice for ontology-based entity and relationship extraction; DeepLynx Run for workflow orchestration and secure AI/ML compute; DeepLynx Visualize for 3D digital twin visualization; and DeepLynx Insight for AI-assisted document analysis with traceable, grounded responses. Deployable in cloud, on-premise, or hybrid environments using containerized Docker applications and Helm charts, the DeepLynx ecosystem provides flexible infrastructure that adapts to organizational requirements. By consolidating project data into a unified data lake with role-based access controls and OAuth2 authentication, DeepLynx enables digital thread and digital twin capabilities that improve decision-making, reduce risk, and support complex engineering workflows throughout the project lifecycle.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗
DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Even Higher-Level Synthesis: An Exploration of AI Hardware Accelerators using HLS4ML

With the rise of artificial intelligence, the popularization of deep learning, and a constantly evolving industry, the demand for flexible and efficient tools has never been greater. As algorithms grow more complex, their runtime and energy consumption increase exponentially. Customized hardware accelerators, long used for specific mathematical operations, remain essential for managing modern applications' computational and power demands. Hardware accelerators can speed up complex computations by orders of magnitude, but their manual design and verification processes are often challenging and time-consuming. High-Level Synthesis (HLS) provides a solution by transforming high-level algorithm descriptions, typically written in C++ or SystemC, into synthesizable RTL suitable for hardware implementation. This approach reduces development time for RTL engineers while offering flexibility beyond what traditional handwritten RTL can provide. We extended this capability to the machine-learning domain with the open-source framework hls4ml, which allows neural networks trained in Python frameworks like Tensorflow or PyTorch to be synthesized into efficient hardware representations for the traditional FPGA and ASIC flows. This breakthrough addresses the growing need for reduced design turnaround and easy verification of ML hardware accelerators with low latency and power efficiency constraints. During this tutorial, we will demonstrate how Python complements HLS by simplifying the ML design process, bridging the gap between software and hardware development. Attendees will explore how we translate neural networks modeled in Python into fixed-point C++ models suitable for HLS workflows. We will dive into strategies like Value-Range Analysis and Quantization-Aware Training, which optimize these designs for deployment and evaluate their accuracy, power consumption, and energy efficiency. To exemplify these concepts, experts from Fermilab will share their experiences applying this technology to high-energy physics experiments, where real-time, low-latency processing is critical. Over the years, Fermilab engineers have demonstrated how deep neural networks, optimized for hardware using hls4ml, can meet the stringent requirements of trigger systems at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. These systems rely on rapid decision-making to process immense data volumes while retaining only the most relevant events for further analysis. The application of hls4ml has also been extended to innovative technologies like smart pixel arrays. These smart pixels integrate ML inference capabilities directly into sensor devices, enabling localized data processing at the pixel level. This approach drastically reduces the need to transmit raw data to external processing units, significantly decreasing power consumption and latency. By embedding neural networks within the pixel architecture, the smart pixels can identify and prioritize relevant data in real time, providing a highly efficient solution for edge computing in scenarios such as particle detectors and imaging systems. Fermilab's work highlights the potential of hardware-accelerated ML in scenarios where both speed and power efficiency are mission-critical. Through this tutorial, attendees will gain valuable insights into the challenges and solutions of deploying ML in hardware. Understanding how HLS and hls4ml streamline the development of neural network-based hardware accelerators is fundamental for the industry's future. Participants will learn how these technologies are shaping the future of AI and scientific computing.

Di Guglielmo, Giuseppe [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating alternative steam generation pathways in the food industry

Steam generation in the food sector requires substantial energy and cost expenditures, requiring nearly half of its energy intake. Here, we used life cycle assessment and life cycle cost assessment to investigate the cost and energy impacts of steam generating alternatives: NG, biomass and hydrogen boilers and grid-supplied and self-generated electric steam generation systems (electric boilers, renewable thermal energy storage and industrial heat pumps). The analysis starts with a set of average U.S. conditions, where biomass boilers are the most cost-competitive alternative to NG. In a series of scenarios beyond average conditions, the analysis shows energy procurement costs dominate the total life cycle cost for all technologies and, unfortunately, are highly variable geographically and temporally, significantly affecting the viability of the alternatives. Results show that site-energy consumption ranges from 0.3 MMBtu/klb for industrial heat pumps to 1.6 MMBtu/klb for biomass boilers, with heat pumps achieving up to 78% lower energy use compared to natural gas systems. For the steam costs, the results show a range between $\$$8 and $\$$50/klb for NG, with biomass following closely ($\$$11 – $\$$44/klb) and grey hydrogen and IHP next ($\$$13 – $\$$33/klb and $\$$6 - $\$$78/klb), with cost reductions if IHP's cooling is utilized. Factors like operating hours, the need for cooling, and the ability to negotiate utility rates complicate the decision, making site-specific analyses critical. Therefore, we present a decision-making matrix to help manufacturers identify which steam generating technology is the best business decision for their situation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of steam generation for the facility's organizational goals, as well as the criticality of conducting individual site analyses.

Biomass boilers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

ORCHID: Orchestrated Retrieval-Augmented Classification of High-Risk Property with Intelligent Decision-Making

High-Risk Property (HRP) classification is critical at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites, where inventories include sensitive and often dual-use equipment. Compliance must track evolving rules designated by various export control policies to make transparent and auditable decisions. Traditional expert-only workflows are time-consuming, backlog-prone, and struggle to keep pace with shifting regulatory boundaries. We propose ORCHID, a modular agentic framework for HRP classification that pairs retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with human oversight to produce policy based outputs that can be audited. Small cooperating agents—retrieval, description refiner, classifier, validator, and feedback logger—coordinate via agent-to-agent messaging and invoke tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for model-agnostic on-premise operation. The interface follows an "Item to Evidence to Decision" loop with step-by-step reasoning, on-policy citations, and append-only audit bundles (run-cards, prompts, evidence). In preliminary tests on real HRP cases, ORCHID improves accuracy and traceability over a non-agentic baseline while deferring uncertain items to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The demonstration shows single item submission, grounded citations, SME feedback capture, and exportable audit artifacts—illustrating a practical path to trustworthy LLM assistance in sensitive DOE compliance workflows.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Solar PV Deployment in Manufacturing: A Morphological Matrix and Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach

The growing energy demand of the industrial sector and the need for sustainable solutions highlight the importance of efficient decision making in solar photovoltaic (PV) implementation. Selecting optimal PV configuration is complex due to the interdependent technical, economic, environmental, and social factors involved. This study introduces an integrated decision-making method combining a morphological matrix and fuzzy TOPSIS to systematically select and rank optimal PV system configurations for manufacturing firms. While the morphological matrix exhaustively examines possible design solutions based on sensing, smart, sustainable, and social (S4) attributes, the fuzzy TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives by handling uncertainty in decision making. A case study conducted in a Mexican manufacturing company validates the methodology’s effectiveness. The optimal PV configuration identified comprehensively addresses operational and sustainability criteria, covering all lifecycle stages. This approach demonstrates quantitative superiority and greater robustness compared to existing fuzzy TOPSIS-based methods for solar PV applications. The findings highlight the practical value of data-driven, multi-criteria decision making for industrial solar energy adoption, enhancing project feasibility, cost efficiency, and environmental compliance. Future research will incorporate discrete event simulation (DES) to further refine energy consumption strategies in manufacturing.

Briceño, Citlaly Pérez↗
DOE OSTI2026

MSD CoP Webinar: Modeling the Operations of Reservoir Systems with LLMs and Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Context: This panel featured three presentations centered on the common theme of applying LLMs and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) to capture the complex human-environment interactions that are central to the operation of reservoir systems. Dr. Wyatt Arnold will kick off the webinar with a talk on how analyzing LLM chain-of-thought reasoning reveals sophisticated quantitative justification and risk awareness, showing promise as a bridge between quantitative models and value-driven water management decisions. Next, Dr. Matteo Giuliani will build on this with a discussion demonstrating that AI- and IRL-driven approaches can infer the trade-offs between flood control and water supply using historical observations. Finally, Dr. Rohan Singh Wilkho will close the webinar with a talk establishing IRL as a generalizable diagnostic tool for decoding decision-making in managed hydrologic and human-infrastructure systems. Across the three presentations, the application of LLMs and IRL opens new possibilities for the development of adaptive, transparent, and human-aware models supporting water management in an increasingly uncertain future. Presenters: Wyatt Arnold (Politecnico di Milano); Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano); Rohan Singh Wilkho (Cornell University) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair); David Gold (MSD CoP AI Working Group Co-Chair) This webinar was held on: June 23rd, 2026 from 12-1 PM EST.

Arnold, Wyatt [Politecnico di Milano]↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising solution for next-generation nuclear energy, offering advantages in safety, fuel efficiency, and waste minimization. However, their liquid-fueled design presents unique challenges for spent fuel management, making post-shutdown waste characterization essential for developing effective strategies. Despite this need, there is a notable absence of visualization platforms specifically tailored to the unique characteristics and analytical requirements of MSR waste management. Existing tools in the nuclear industry are primarily designed for reactor operations or generic data exploration and lack both integration with MSR-specific multiphysics frameworks and the ability to simultaneously visualize time-dependent thermal fields, chemical composition evolution, and radiation distribution patterns. To address these limitations, this paper presents an immersive virtual reality (VR) visualization platform that processes and displays high-fidelity multiphysics simulation output from the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework in real-time, using Unity. The platform visualizes MSR waste characteristics such as nuclide decay, salt cooling, and corrosion by using Exodus II output data and running on a VR headset. It includes a user-friendly interface with features such as visibility toggling, cross-sectional slicing, and time-series animation for exploring simulation data. These capabilities support experimental design, stakeholder engagement, and public communication by making complex reactor behavior more accessible and understandable. By enhancing spatial reasoning and reducing cognitive load, this immersive environment fosters more effective communication and decision-making in MSR waste management.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) represents a significant innovation in nuclear technology, offering several operational and safety benefits over traditional solid-fuel reactors. However, MSRs face uncertainties in waste management due to their flexible designs and variable waste compositions. To address these challenges, we propose a visualization platform that illustrates solutions and performance predictions for various waste management strategies, enhancing user experience and improving strategy and communication. Immersive visualizations are widely used in the nuclear industry for training, simulation, and safety enhancement. Our project aims to develop a visualization platform incorporating virtual reality (VR) technologies to illustrate MSR characteristics immediately following reactor shutdown. This immersive simulation will allow users to interact, explore, and understand different waste management strategies. The platform will display MSR reactor characterizations, including nuclide decay, salt solidification, and corrosion, which are crucial for assessing and selecting backend management strategies. Using the Meta Quest 3 VR headset with Unity software, our platform will provide real-scale visualizations, enabling users to experience and evaluate designs and plans as if they were physically present. This user-friendly interface will make complex data accessible and understandable for non-domain experts, aiding in decision-making for MSR waste management. Our proposed visualization workflow can be applied to other nuclear reactors, assisting in the design and planning of waste management strategies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗