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At least 109 records · Page 6

Assessment of Nuclear Data Needs for Advanced Reactor Demonstrations: Application to the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE)

A number of advanced reactor concepts are planned for near-term demonstrations including microreactors, larger demonstrations and space nuclear systems. These reactor concepts are based on a wide variety of reactor technologies, including sodium, gas, and salt cooling. An overlooked area in the development and ultimate startup of these reactors is addressing nuclear data needs that allow confident prediction of the criticality, safety requirements, and operation of the reactors. In this paper we try to address the problem of assessing nuclear data needs and possible remedies to reduce the existing uncertainties for advanced nuclear reactors. A methodology for defining these needs is described. The case of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) has been considered and the related investigation highlights the specific needs for reducing uncertainty on the 235U capture and 35Cl (n,p) reactions. Integral experiments relatively inexpensive are indicated as possible solution for significantly reduce the current associated uncertainties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Get on the BAND Wagon: a Bayesian framework for quantifying model uncertainties in nuclear dynamics

In this paper, we describe the Bayesian Analysis of Nuclear Dynamics (BAND) framework, a cyberinfrastructure that we are developing which will unify the treatment of nuclear models, experimental data, and associated uncertainties. We overview the statistical principles and nuclear-physics contexts underlying the BAND toolset, with an emphasis on Bayesian methodology's ability to leverage insight from multiple models. In order to facilitate understanding of these tools we provide a simple and accessible example of the BAND framework's application. Four case studies are presented to highlight how elements of the framework will enable progress on complex, far-ranging problems in nuclear physics. By collecting notation and terminology, providing illustrative examples, and giving an overview of the associated techniques, this paper aims to open paths through which the nuclear physics and statistics communities can contribute to and build upon the BAND framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Developing the S 32 ( p , d ) S * 31 ( p ) ( γ ) reaction to probe the P 30 ( p , γ ) S 31 reaction rate in classical novae

Background: The 30 P(p,γ) 31 S reaction rate is one of the largest remaining sources of uncertainty in the final abundances of nuclei created in a classical nova involving a ONe white dwarf. The reaction rate directly influences silicon isotopic ratios, which are used as identifiers of presolar grains with nova origins. Additionally, the uncertainty in the 30 P(p,γ) 31 S reaction rate has been found to limit the use of nova nuclear thermometers based on observations of elemental ratios in nova ejecta. Purpose: Reduce uncertainties in the nuclear data for proton-unbound states in 31 S, which act as resonances for the 30 P(p,γ) 31 S reaction at classical nova temperatures, and develop a technique for high efficiency, high-resolution reaction-decay coincidence measurements. Methods: Here, the 32 S(p,d) 31 S reaction was used to populate the states of interest in 31 S. The experiment was performed at the Texas A&M Cyclotron Institute using the LLNL Hyperion array for the detection of charged particles and γ rays. A downstream silicon telescope was used to select reaction deuterons, and a single upstream silicon detector was used to measure protons emitted in the decay of unbound 31 S levels. Results: Several states in 31 S above the proton separation energy were observed to have been populated. Decay protons from the resonant states in 31 S were identified as events in the upstream silicon detectors that came in coincidence with deuterons in the downstream telescope. Protons emitted from these states were measured and branching ratios extracted. Conclusions: While no new reaction rate is derived, spin-parity assignments for several higher-lying proton unbound states have been confirmed. Measured p 0 branching ratios for these levels have been compared to previous measurements with good agreement, and in some cases provided a reduction in uncertainty. The previously identified T = 3/2 state may have been incorrectly assigned a large p 0 branching ratio in a previous measurement. The technique of measuring reaction-decay coincidences with a particle-gamma setup appears promising.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Need for a New LLNL Pulsed Sphere Neutron Leakage Spectra Series

Here, it is shown that spectra measured as part of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Pulsed Sphere (LPS) program offer decisive information to locate formatting or physics issues in nuclear data of key interest for fusion reactor simulations. However, experiments from this measurement series are not benchmarks. For instance, their uncertainties are incomplete. There are also many open questions—e.g., on the setup, the detector response, and whether LPS are accurately modeled—that cannot be answered anymore given the limited documentation and that many of the experimenters are no longer actively working. This limited knowledge has implications when one tries to adjust nuclear data to LPS spectra. Usually, one adjusts to benchmarks representing an application with the hope to get more precise nuclear data for the application of interest where differential data might be scarce and/or to reduce nuclear data uncertainties in the application simulations. However, it is demonstrated that adjustment with LPS spectra without accounting for missing uncertainties and modeling potential biases in the experimental data leads to adjusted data that are highly unphysical. That means adjusted data differ significantly from evaluated data based on information from differential experiments; also, application quantities predicted with the adjusted data deviate distinctly from experimental ones. While we can approximate our limited knowledge on these experiments with Gaussian processes in the adjustment process, this modeling of bias is arbitrary rather than based on a physics explanation, calling into doubt the validity of resulting adjusted data. Thus, we discuss here the need for a new measurement series, learning from the strengths and weaknesses of the LPS program, to yield decisive and well-benchmarked integral experiments to support fusion reactor research.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Relevant Advanced Reactor Benchmarks for Nuclear Data Assessment

Advanced reactor concepts currently being developed throughout the industry are significantly different from light water reactor (LWR) designs with respect to geometry, materials, and operating conditions, and consequently, with respect to their reactor physics behavior. Given the limited operating experience with non-LWRs, the accurate simulation of reactor physics and the quantification of associated uncertainties are critical for ensuring that advanced reactor concepts operate within the appropriate safety margins. Nuclear data are a major source of input uncertainties in reactor physics analysis. As part of an ongoing project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the effects of nuclear data uncertainties on key figures of merit associated with advanced reactor safety are being assessed for selected advanced reactor technologies. Key nuclear data relevant for reactor safety analysis for each selected advanced reactor technology were identified in Phase 1, and their impact on important key figures of merit was assessed in Phase 2. This report describes the outcome of Phase 3. Available benchmarks and fuel irradiation data for use in evaluating the impact of uncertainties and gaps in nuclear data that impact reactivity control for advanced reactor designs through the fuel cycle were identified and assessed. Benchmarks were identified by searching (1) the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) handbook, (2) the OCED/NEA International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project (IRPhEP) handbook, (3) ongoing OECD/NEA benchmark activities, and (4) documentation in public literature. Relevant benchmarks were identified by selecting reactors with geometry, materials, and neutron energy spectra similar to those of selected advanced reactor technologies. This assessment identified six benchmarks, of which three are experimental and three are purely computational. One experimental and one computation benchmark contain depleted fuel; all others are limited to fresh fuel. This report provides short descriptions of the selected benchmarks along with the availability of measured data for comparison.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗

General constraints on the age and chemical evolution of the Galaxy

The formalism of Schramm and Wasserburg (1970) for determining the mean age of the elements is extended to develop as model-independent a range for the Galaxy's age as possible that takes all nuclear and meteoritic data uncertainties into account. A model-independent upper limit to that age is derived from an expansion of the equation giving the mean age of the elements in moments of the normalized effective nucleosynthesis rate. This limit depends only on the ratio of the mean time of formation of the elements to the total duration of nucleosynthesis, and on model-independent data. It is shown tht the Th-232/U-238. U-235/U-238, and Pu-244/U-238 chronometric pairs can give constraints on the relative rate of nucleosynthesis over the history of the synthesis of the solar system material.

Meyer, Bradley S.↗

Experimental Covariance Determination for Critical Integral Experiments

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. In general, uncertainty quantification techniques ignore correlations between experiments and shared parts. Experiments, such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns, consist of many shared parts, such as the ‘Jemima’ HEU fuel plates, which create a strong correlation in their uncertainties. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. A proof-of-principle study using the TEX-HEU experimental campaign was performed and verified that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in the ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. This study showed that the introduction of model and experimental covariances reduces the χ 2 per degree of freedom from 2.203 to 1.179, indicating that the omission causes overly pessimistic bias quantifications. This technique can be seamlessly integrated to current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluations of legacy benchmarks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗

Windowed multipole representation of R -matrix cross sections

Nuclear cross sections are basic inputs to any nuclear computation. Campaigns of experiments are fitted with the parametric R-matrix model of quantum nuclear interactions, and the resulting cross sections are documented—both pointwise and as resonance parameters (with uncertainties)—in standard evaluated nuclear data libraries (ENDF, JEFF, BROND, JENDL, CENDL, TENDL): these constitute our common knowledge of fundamental low-energy nuclear cross sections. In the past decade, a collaborative effort has been deployed to establish a new nuclear cross-section library format—the Windowed Multipole Library—with the goal of considerably reducing the computational cost of cross-section calculations in nuclear transport simulations. This work lays the theoretical foundations underpinning these efforts. From general R-matrix scattering theory, we derive the windowed multipole representation of nuclear cross sections. Though physically and mathematically equivalent to R-matrix cross sections, the windowed multipole representation is particularly well suited for subsequent temperature treatment of angle-integrated cross sections, in particular Doppler broadening, which is the averaging of cross sections over the thermal motion of the target atoms. Doppler broadening is of critical importance in neutron transport applications, as it ensures the stability of many nuclear reactors (negative thermal reactivity). Yet, Doppler broadening of nuclear cross sections has been a considerable bottleneck for nuclear transport computations, often requiring memory-costly pretabulations. We show that the windowed multipole representation can perform accurate Doppler broadening analytically (up to the first reaction threshold), from which we derive cross-section temperature derivatives to any order—all computable on the fly (without precalculations stored in memory). Furthermore, we here establish a way of converting the R-matrix resonance parameters uncertainty (covariance matrices) into windowed multipole parameters uncertainty. We show that generating stochastic nuclear cross sections by sampling from the resulting windowed multipole covariance matrix can reproduce the cross-section uncertainty in the original nuclear data file. The windowed multipole representation is therefore a novel nuclear physics formalism able to generate Doppler broadened stochastic nuclear cross sections on the fly, unlocking breakthrough computational gains for nuclear computations. Through this foundational paper, we hope to make the windowed multipole representation accessible, reproducible, and usable for the nuclear physics community, as well as provide the theoretical basis for future research on expanding its capabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Covariance Testing Progress for ENDF/B-VIII.1β1 at ORNL [Slides]

This presentation touched on how data-induced uncertainty significantly increased for thermal 235 U-fueled systems. And how 239 Pu covariance changes are worrying. Additionally discussed is how 103 Rh is the only significant important fission product change. The Impact of ENDF/B-VIII.1β1 on burnup credit similarity assessments is similar to ENDF/B-VII.1 data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Data Assessment for Advanced Reactors

Advanced reactor concepts being developed throughout the industry are significantly different from light-water reactor (LWR) designs with respect to geometry, materials, and operating conditions, and consequently, with respect to their reactor physics behavior. Given the limited operating experience with non-LWRs, the accurate simulation of reactor physics and the quantification of associated uncertainties are important for ensuring that the nuclear design for advanced reactor concepts include appropriate margins. Nuclear data are a major source of input uncertainties in reactor physics analysis. As part of a project sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), key nuclear data relevant to reactor safety analysis in selected advanced reactor technologies were identified, and their impacts on important key figures of merit were assessed based on (1) a review of available advanced reactor specifications, (2) analysis of previous studies performed at ORNL and other research institutions, and (3) sensitivity and uncertainty analyses performed for six selected benchmarks—three experimental and three computational—to quantify the impacts of the identified key nuclear data on several key metrics. This report summarizes the key nuclear data—nominal data and nuclear data uncertainties— considering the most important nuclear reactions in the fuel and in various materials for the moderator, coolant, and structure of the considered advanced reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Machine Learning to Select Experiments Driven by Fundamental Science and Applications for Targeted Nuclear Data Improvement

This work describes a blueprint for a process that accelerates progress in science by quantitatively answering the following question: What is the optimal combination of fundamental-science and application-driven experiments to maximally reduce pertinent data uncertainties? Answering this question entails solving a high-dimensional and complex optimization problem that is best solved with advanced statistic techniques often classified as machine learning. We apply this process within the framework of nuclear data with the aim to select an experiment combination that will reduce uncertainties in 239 Pu nuclear data for neutron energies between 1 and 600 keV. In this field, fundamental-physics driven data, called differential, look at one nuclear physics observable at a time. They are contrasted to application-driven, integral, data where one or few resulting values inform a broad set of nuclear data across several nuclides and energies. The candidates for integral experiments are criticality measurements that were refined by a genetic algorithm to be maximally sensitive to 239 Pu fission cross sections in the desired energy range. Twenty-three candidate differential experiments were investigated and span multiple nuclear physics observables (e.g., total, capture cross sections) for isotopes appearing in the integral experiments. The optimal combination among these candidate experiments was investigated via generalized least squares fitting, augmented with Gaussian processes to ameliorate statistical irregularities in data, and the D-optimality criterion. The latter evaluates for each pair of candidates the joint reduction in uncertainties of all 12200 nuclear data appearing in the integral experiments compared to the knowledge we have from 168 past experiments, theory, and nuclear data. We chose as differential measurements those that investigate 63 Cu and 239 Pu total cross sections, based on D-optimality rank and feasibility constraints. Two integral (criticality) experiments were selected: An experiment with Al 2 ⁢O 3 and graphite interleaved with Pu and a thick Cu reflector explores 1–30 keV, while we target the 30–600 keV range with an experiment that swaps boron in place of graphite with a different geometry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The MUSIC Critical Benchmark and Nuclear Data

The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSIC) experiment was a series of measurements of critical and subcritical configurations of bare highly enriched uranium. The goal was to compare measurement methods, analysis techniques, and simulation methods across regimes of criticality and to provide high-quality validation of 235 U nuclear data. A benchmark evaluation of the two critical configurations of the MUSIC experiments will soon be published in the release of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook. The recent execution of the experiment aids in proper quantification of model simplifications and all uncertainties associated with the experiment. Historical benchmark evaluations are heavily relied on for uranium nuclear data validation despite the fact that the same level of documentation and comparable uncertainty analysis may not be present. The MUSIC evaluation is less likely to include “unknown unknowns” that could impede accurately modeling the system. Presented are both highly detailed and very simplified models, which represent the experimental configurations accurately, aiding the users of the benchmark for nuclear data or transport code validation. The sensitivities of k eff to nuclear data and nuclear data–related uncertainties are very similar between this experiment and previous bare uranium sphere experiments. In addition, the nuclear data uncertainties to any nuclides other than 235 U are small. For all these reasons, the recently evaluated MUSIC benchmark critical configurations could prove very useful for 235 U nuclear data validation. Currently, major libraries have good agreement with the experimental results, within 200 pcm for all nuclear data libraries, and within one standard deviation of the experimental result for most. Suggested nuclear data adjustments based on MUSIC and Lady Godiva are also presented, with posterior improvements to both the agreement in k eff and the uncertainty associated with the nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

An uncertainty quantification method relevant to material test reactors

Within material test reactor calculations, energy dependent flux and reaction rate uncertainties are typically not quantified when performing as-run analyses to determine the neutron field experienced by the experiment. When high fidelity Monte-Carlo codes are used in such analyses, straight forward methods to calculate output uncertainties are not available, instead expert opinion is used to postulate computational uncertainties. New methods to propagate uncertainties through these high fidelity simulations are available when sufficient computational power is available. A tool is developed here for sampling any part of an MCNP input from random distributions to determine output uncertainties based on those inputs. Another tool is developed to sample nuclear data cross-section in ACE format using multi-group nuclear data covariances. The Total Monte-Carlo Method and Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit method (GRS) are implemented and compared to one another as well as MCNP sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. The methods were applied to the Godiva critical sphere k-eigenvalue, the UAM pin-cell benchmark energy dependent flux and reaction rates, and the Advanced Test Reactor energy dependent flux within an experimental location. Furthermore, the two methods agree well, with GRS allowing for an order of magnitude speedup for reaction rate uncertainty calculations and several orders of magnitude for eigenvalue uncertainty calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Nuclide Inventory Benchmark for BWR Spent Nuclear Fuel: Challenges in Evaluation of Modeling Data Assumptions and Uncertainties

This work discusses challenges and approaches to uncertainty analyses associated with the development of a nuclide inventory benchmark for fuel irradiated in a boiling water reactor. The benchmark under consideration is being developed based on experimental data from the SFCOMPO international database. The focus herein is on how to address missing data in fuel design and operating conditions that are important for adequately simulating the time-dependent changes in fuel during irradiation in the reactor. The effects of modeling assumptions and uncertainties in modeling parameters on the calculated nuclide inventory were analyzed and quantified through computational models developed using capabilities in the SCALE code system. Particular attention was given to the impact of the power history and water coolant density on the calculated nuclide inventory, as well as to the effect of geometry modeling considerations not usually addressed in a nuclide inventory benchmark. These considerations include gap closure, channel bow, and channel corner radius, which do not usually apply to regular reactor operation but are relevant for assessing impacts of potential anomalous operating scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nuclear Criticality Safety Integral Experiment Covariance Determination

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. Commonly, the uncertainty quantification ignores correlations between experiments that share components. Experiments such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns consist of many shared parts, such as fuel, which create a strong correlation in their uncertainties. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes a software package that uses an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation matrix for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. The code uses the TEX-HEU campaign as a proof of concept, and we show that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. The estimated covariances are used in χ 2 trending studies to evaluate their impact on nuclear data validation. Without covariances, χ 2 per degree of freedom was calculated as 2.203 and with covariances it was 1.179. The difference shows that omitting covariance information may cause overly pessimistic bias quantifications. The covariance determination code can be easily integrated into current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluating legacy benchmark uncertainties. Uncertainty correlation calculations should become the baseline for criticality safety integral experiment benchmarks and can now be easily calculated with the described software package.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗