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Experimental Procedure and Results for Contact Thermal Conductance Measurements performed during FY 2021

Weapons Test Engineering groups at LANL are responsible for testing and simulating weapon assemblies and subassemblies in support of qualification and certification of nuclear weapon systems. The complex nature of the assemblies themselves coupled with the loading environments, gives rise to low confidence and high uncertainties in the interpretation of both experimental and simulated results. In an effort to reduce these uncertainties, a project was started at LANL to perform focused and systematic experiments combined with simulations to increase confidence in both arenas. A key goal of the work performed under the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests TRUST program, focuses on identifying and minimizing sources of uncertainty associated with experimental and computational techniques. Specifically, with the above as motivation, a measurement procedure was developed by MST-8 to perform thermal conductivity measurements on cylinders of both similar and dissimilar metallic systems as a function of loading conditions and varying material interface morphologies between these components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ASC FY2023 Implementation Plan Revision 0

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Effects of the War in Ukraine on National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Missions

While the challenge from a risen and revisionist China may prove greater and more enduring, Russia’s war on Ukraine profoundly changes the strategic context, importance, and requirements of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) missions. The world changed as much in February of 2022 as it did in November of 1989 or December of 1991 , when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union fell apart. These changes will not likely be ephemeral. Russia is preparing for a long war and a prolonged period of isolation from and hostility toward the West. Although Russia has many political, economic, and military weaknesses, it retains the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Russia is therefore central to deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear security issues. Furthermore, Moscow’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council affords it a veto potentially affecting all these issues.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Advanced Simulation and Computing: FY25 Implementation Plan

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Phase Formation in Nuclear Fallout

An understanding of the physical and chemical process occurring in a nuclear explosion enables predictions of the effects of nuclear weapons, including characteristics of radioactive fallout resulting from the explosion. Near-surface nuclear explosions are of particular interest due to the potential for significant amounts of environmental material to interact with and alter the physical and chemical behavior of the fireball. Such interactions have the potential to affect the distribution of radioactive species in the fireball and subsequently become incorporated into fallout through a process known as radiochemical fractionation. Studying variations in fallout formed in different historical testing environments allows us to understand the influence of local environments on fallout formation processes. In particular, constraining variations in thermal evolution and redox conditions during the evolution of the fireball can be useful to understanding how sensitive fallout radiochemical fractionation may be to the local explosion environment. However, untangling these conditions in complex, multicomponent fallout is a challenge. Here we present one method of constraining and interpreting fallout formation conditions by relating computationally derived phase stability predictions to observations in historic fallout. Development of such approaches will help improve physics-based models of fallout formation and radiochemical fractionation in complex, near surface nuclear detonations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Nuclear Explosives Safety Office - An Overview

Nuclear Explosive Safety Study Groups (NESSG) are convened to evaluate NEOs to determine if positive measures are adequate to meet the Standards as specified in DOE O 452.2E - Nuclear Explosive Safety, DOE O 452.4E – Security and Use Control of Nuclear Explosives and Nuclear Weapons, and NA SD 452.2.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Lab’s Z-machine efforts advance stockpile stewardship in multi-org collaboration

For the past 15 years, Los Alamos (LANL) employees have played a major role in plutonium experiments using the Z-machine — a device at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) that uses high magnetic fields, electrical currents, and X-rays to help scientists understand how materials behave under extreme temperatures and pressures. High-energy density physics, or the study of matter under extreme conditions, is a key component of certifying the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation and Uncertainty of Radioxenon Transport with a Mesoscale Model after the February 2013 Underground Test in North Korea

Abstract The transport of radioxenon released from the February 2013 underground nuclear weapons test in North Korea was analyzed at two receptors—one at the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty site Rn58 in Russia (400 km downwind) and a second at Rn38 in Japan (1000 km downwind). Transport was modeled with two ensembles of mesoscale simulations, one generated with varying initial and lateral boundary conditions taken from the Global Forecasting System uncertainty ensemble, and a second created from different parameterizations and surface conditions. The wind variability was similar for the two ensembles and consistent with observations at 925 mb (1 mb = 1 hPa) but not at the surface. Biases in calculated surface winds and the radioxenon concentration in the ensembles were attributed mainly to poor simulation of the sea breeze at both locations and mountain lee affects at Rn38 in Japan. These wind regimes affected the timing of the surface radioxenon plume at Rn58 and its duration at Rn38. Surface wind variability induced by terrain and land–sea contrast (the sea breeze) also had a significant effect on the surface winds and plume dynamics, including blocking of flow approaching elevated terrain near Vladivostok and the west side of Japan. Increased plume uncertainty was seen at night because of surface wind variability. Measured surface chemical variability was larger than found in the first European Tracer Experiment in central Europe. The study found that horizontal model resolution contributes to uncertainty but not as much as vertical resolution, boundary layer parameterizations, and assimilation of surface meteorological data near the receptor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

First atomic weapons following WWII were detonated 75 years ago Operation Crossroads kicks off era of testing Los Alamos-created weapons [Slides]

It was time to test. After the Los Alamos-created atomic bombs helped end World War II, the no-longer-secret Lab transitioned into an era of weapons testing, starting 75 years ago with Operation Crossroads with the goal of studying nuclear weapons’ effects on warships. In August 1945, U.S. Senator Brien McMahon, who later authored the Atomic Energy Act of 1946, said: “In order to test the destructive powers of the atomic bomb against naval vessels, I would like to see these (Japanese naval) ships taken to sea and an atomic bomb dropped on them. The resulting explosion should prove to us just how effective the atomic bomb is when used against the giant naval ships.”

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1943–2017

During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed ‘The Gadget’ that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, 238Pu and 239Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses. Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose. There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Particulate Effluent Characterization (Final Report)

Understanding particulate emissions from nuclear facilities could help differentiate between normal nuclear operations and potential nuclear accidents or nuclear weapons tests. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is unique in that there are several types of nuclear facilities on site: an operating production reactor, radiochemical separation facilities, and a spallation neutron source. This project deployed a high-volume particulate air filter sampler to collect airborne particulate effluent from the nuclear facilities on site at ORNL. Collections occurred regularly from November 1, 2024, through June 30, 2025, and were analyzed via gamma spectroscopy in the laboratory. The radioisotope iodine-123 ( 123 I) was detected in several samples throughout the collection period. Detailed atmospheric transport modeling was performed on all detections for source attribution, and the most likely source of the 123 I was determined to be the Spallation Neutron Source. The project demonstrated the viability of ORNL as a test bed for effluent monitoring studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Protecting People and Planet

To produce energy, civilian nuclear power plants require fuel. The majority of existing plants rely on solid ceramic fuels that contain concentrations of about 3 to 5% of the element uranium-235. This specific isotope is well suited to sustaining the type of chain reaction required for a nuclear reactor to harness the heat produced by nuclear fission. Title I of the United States Atomic Energy Act of 1954 defines “special nuclear material” as plutonium, uranium-233, or uranium enriched in the isotopes uranium-233 or uranium-235. This label identifies materials that at high concentrations can be used to produce nuclear weapons. The United States and broader international community are fully committed to ensuring the peaceful use of nuclear energy by committing to practices known as safeguards.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Advanced Algorithms for Scrutiny of Mandatory State Reports Declarations to the IAEA (Final Project Report)

In compliance with their Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements, based on INFCIRC/153 (corrected) (International Atomic Energy Agency, 1972), States Party to the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) are obligated to declare to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) all changes in their nuclear material inventory as well as movement of the material across boundaries of IAEA recognized material balance areas (MBA), inventories and nuclear material balances. This project addresses capabilities to detect irregularities in State reports, thus ensuring their accuracy and completeness, and in the broader context, States’ compliance with safeguards obligations of the NPT. A recent study (Henzl et al., 2022) (lead by this project’s PI) demonstrated how analysis of dynamic correlations in nuclear material movement within the entire fuel cycle of a State (viewed as a single system) can reveal variances consistent with and indicative of “irregular” activities. Expanding on this concept, novel ways to analyze State declarations themselves—again, for the State as a whole entity—will help the IAEA draw accurate safeguards conclusions and trust the validity and authenticity of Stategenerated declaration reports. Introducing new declaration analyses capabilities explored in this project will help to provide credible assurance of both the non-diversion of nuclear material from declared activities and of the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in the State in general.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Confirming the absence of nuclear warheads via passive gamma-ray measurements

Arms-control agreements between the United States and Russia negotiated after the end of the Cold War have imposed limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Verification of these agreements has relied on onsite inspections, sometimes supported by radiation detection techniques to confirm the absence of a nuclear warhead when ambiguities arise. So far, these measurements have sought to detect neutron emissions associated with the presence of plutonium, but they would be inadequate for uranium devices. In an effort to offer instruments that could be used to confirm the absence of both plutonium and uranium weapons, here we propose an inspection system that uses only passive gamma radiation detection techniques. Such a system would be particularly valuable for next-generation arms-control agreements that limit total numbers of weapons and would involve containerized items in storage. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to support the development of a verification protocol and detection algorithm. Here, we demonstrate the viability of the technique using standard laboratory check sources and MCNP simulations for simplified configurations of special nuclear material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A physical unclonable neutron sensor for nuclear arms control inspections

Abstract Classical sensor security relies on cryptographic algorithms executed on trusted hardware. This approach has significant shortcomings, however. Hardware can be manipulated, including below transistor level, and cryptographic keys are at risk of extraction attacks. A further weakness is that sensor media themselves are assumed to be trusted, and any authentication and encryption is done ex situ and a posteriori. Here we propose and demonstrate a different approach to sensor security that does not rely on classical cryptography and trusted electronics. We designed passive sensor media that inherently produce secure and trustworthy data, and whose honest and non-malicious nature can be easily established. As a proof-of-concept, we manufactured and characterized the properties of non-electronic, physical unclonable, optically complex media sensitive to neutrons for use in a high-security scenario: the inspection of a military facility to confirm the absence or presence of nuclear weapons and fissile materials.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Optical noise in a free-space quantum communications link from natural and nuclear disturbed environments*

Satellite communications at radio frequencies can experience a ‘blackout’ period following the atmospheric detonation of a nuclear weapon. The wavelengths used for free-space quantum communications will not incur the same ‘blackout’ effects from a nuclear detonation, but the optical systems will suffer from a phenomenon called redout. Redout occurs in an optical detector when ambient light scatters into the optical receiver, causing elevated background photon counts in the detector such that background noise overwhelms the signal. In this work, the duration of the redout effect is quantified from a nuclear disturbed environment on a ground-to-space quantum optical link. In addition, we comment on various techniques for reducing ambient and nuclear disturbed background counts in a quantum free-space optical link. For low-altitude nuclear detonations (i.e., under 50 km), the maximum interference time will be less than 1 min. Implementing a telescope, timing gate, and wavelength filter to the detector can reduce the background counts in the detector significantly. Aerosol levels and ground albedo are major contributors to background noise in a ground-to-satellite quantum channel, and ground station location should factor in both variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

2021-2026 Weapons Research Services Strategic Plan

The Weapons Research Services (WRS) Division provides Los Alamos National Laboratory with services, resources, and staff that are critical to fulfilling its national security mission. WRS serves the entire LANL Weapons Program and is housed within the Weapons Physics Directorate (ALDX), which is at the core of the design, certification, and assessment of the nation’s nuclear weapons. More specifically, WRS is a research and development organization that provides unique tools designed to meet the specific needs of the Lab’s weapons mission rather than administrative or Information & Technology (IT) tools used broadly by the Lab. WRS partners with other LANL organizations, including Global Security to conduct mission research and I&T organizations to meet basic IT infrastructure needs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Distances to Prompt Effects for a Nuclear Device

In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗