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Prediction of the thermal-hydraulic-mechanical response of a geological repository at large scale and sensitivity analyses
To better understand the Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical (THM) response of the rock caused by the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) released heat in the Callovo-Oxfordian formation (COx) in the near-field and far-field areas, a series of coupled THM modelling is performed. This study presents a case study based on the French geological repository for HLW (Cigéo project) to better assess modelling of deep geological repositories (DGR) within the DECOVALEX-2019 framework. In this study, the proposed coupled THM model, implemented in the platform of COMSOL, is validated by comparing the modelled THM results for a point heat source in an infinite rock mass with an analytical solution. It is also validated by comparing its thermal component for the Base Case with accurate results calculated using another numerical method. To shorten the calculation time, the DGR is modelled using six cuboid blocks representing 162 HLW cells and only six central HLW cells of interest modelled in detail. This simplification is validated. This model can easily be used to model not only the near-field THM response of the rock but also the far-field THM response. The influence of the boundary conditions applied on the gallery wall, HLW cell walls, and external surfaces of the model and the influence of different vertical dimensions of the geometry are studied. The sensitivity analyses of the THM parameters of COx on the THM response at different locations are performed. Finally, the influence of using a 2-dimensional (2D) model to represent a 3-dimensional (3D) repository is also investigated.
Oxide– and Silicate–Water Interfaces and Their Roles in Technology and the Environment
Interfacial reactions drive all elemental cycling on Earth and play pivotal roles in human activities such as agriculture, water purification, energy production and storage, environmental contaminant remediation, and nuclear waste repository management. The onset of the 21st century marked the beginning of a more detailed understanding of mineral aqueous interfaces enabled by advances in techniques that use tunable high-flux focused ultrafast laser and X-ray sources to provide near-atomic measurement resolution, as well as by nanofabrication approaches that enable transmission electron microscopy in a liquid cell. This leap into atomic- and nanometer-scale measurements has uncovered scale-dependent phenomena whose reaction thermodynamics, kinetics, and pathways deviate from previous observations made on larger systems. A second key advance is new experimental evidence for what scientists hypothesized but could not test previously, namely, interfacial chemical reactions are frequently driven by “anomalies” or “non-idealities” such as defects, nanoconfinement, and other nontypical chemical structures. Third, progress in computational chemistry has yielded new insights that allow a move beyond simple schematics, leading to a molecular model of these complex interfaces. In combination with surface-sensitive measurements, we have gained knowledge of the interfacial structure and dynamics, including the underlying solid surface and the immediately adjacent water and aqueous ions, enabling a better definition of what constitutes the oxide– and silicate–water interfaces. This critical review discusses how science progresses from understanding ideal solid–water interfaces to more realistic systems, focusing on accomplishments in the last 20 years and identifying challenges and future opportunities for the community to address. Further, we anticipate that the next 20 years will focus on understanding and predicting dynamic transient and reactive structures over greater spatial and temporal ranges as well as systems of greater structural and chemical complexity. Closer collaborations of theoretical and experimental experts across disciplines will continue to be critical to achieving this great aspiration.
Transformation of Ferrihydrite to Goethite and the Fate of Plutonium
Understanding the interactions between plutonium and iron (oxy)hydroxide minerals is necessary to gain a predictive understanding of plutonium environmental mobility and to evaluate long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories. We investigated the fate of plutonium during the formation of ferrihydrite and its subsequent transformation into goethite. Ferrihydrite was synthesized with varying quantities of Pu(IV) following either a sorption or coprecipitation process; the ferrihydrite was then aged hydrothermally to yield goethite. Additionally, the synthesized materials were characterized via extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and acid leaching to elucidate the nature of plutonium association with ferrihydrite and goethite. In samples prepared following the sorption method, plutonium was identified in two different forms: a PuO 2 precipitate and a surface-sorbed plutonium complex. For the samples prepared via coprecipitation, no PuO 2 formation occurs in the ferrihydrite precursor and in the goethite experiments where plutonium concentration is ≤1000 ppm (mg kg –1 ). In these coprecipitation products, plutonium is strongly bound to the minerals either via formation of an inner sphere complex, or via an incorporation process. In the coprecipitation experiments, PuO 2 formation only occurs at the highest plutonium concentration (3000 ppm), suggesting that during ferrihydrite transformation into goethite, part of the plutonium can be remobilized to form PuO 2 nanoparticles. Collectively, our results demonstrate that the nature of plutonium associated with the precursor ferrihydrite (adsorbed vs coprecipitated) will have a direct impact on the association of plutonium with its alteration product (goethite). Furthermore, the data illustrate that some properties of plutonium association with the precursor ferrihydrite are retained through the transformation into goethite. These findings show that plutonium strongly associates with iron (oxy)hydroxides formed through coprecipitation processes and in these materials, plutonium can be strongly retained by the iron minerals.
Thermodynamic non-ideality and disorder heterogeneity in actinide silicate solid solutions
Non-ideal thermodynamics of solid solutions can greatly impact materials degradation behavior. We have investigated an actinide silicate solid solution system (USiO 4 –ThSiO 4 ), demonstrating that thermodynamic non-ideality follows a distinctive, atomic-scale disordering process, which is usually considered as a random distribution. Neutron total scattering implemented by pair distribution function analysis confirmed a random distribution model for U and Th in first three coordination shells; however, a machine-learning algorithm suggested heterogeneous U and Th clusters at nanoscale (~2 nm). The local disorder and nanosized heterogeneous is an example of the non-ideality of mixing that has an electronic origin. Partial covalency from the U/Th 5f–O 2p hybridization promotes electron transfer during mixing and leads to local polyhedral distortions. The electronic origin accounts for the strong non-ideality in thermodynamic parameters that extends the stability field of the actinide silicates in nature and under typical nuclear waste repository conditions.
Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models
Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.
Interseismic Strain Accumulation between the Colorado Plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone: Implications for the Seismic Hazard near Las Vegas, Nevada
ABSTRACT Crustal deformation in the central Basin and Range between the Colorado plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone is active but slow, making it a challenge to assess how strain is distributed and crustal motion transferred. However, knowledge of strain rates is very important, particularly for addressing the seismic hazard for both the Las Vegas urban area and the site of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, in southern Nevada. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide important constraints, particularly now that the GPS network in the area has substantially expanded in recent years. However, because deformation is slow, it is important to mitigate any transient tectonic and nontectonic signals to obtain the most accurate long-term interseismic motion and robust estimation of strain rates. We use data from all GPS stations in the region including both long-running continuous and semicontinuous stations. We model and remove postseismic displacements at these stations using source parameters for 41 events, dating back to the 1700 Cascadia megathrust earthquake, which contribute significantly to the deformation field within the central Basin and Range. We also remove correlated noise from the time series with the common-mode component imaging technique. We find that removal of both the postseismic transients and common-mode noise substantially reduces the uncertainties and spatial variation in the velocities. We find east–west extension across the Las Vegas Valley of 0.5–0.6 mm/yr. The interseismic strain rate field, calculated with the final velocities, reveals higher strain rates through southern Nevada than in previous studies, with rates within Las Vegas Valley of 8.5±2.4×10−9 yr−1. Our results also confirm shear along the Pahranagat shear zone, but the estimated amplitude is strongly affected by postseismic relaxation.
Analcime-wairakite formation during experimental cement-bentonite alteration at 200–300 °C
Engineered barrier system materials in nuclear waste repositories may undergo hydrothermal alteration in response to groundwater saturation and heating events over their long operational timescales. Hydrothermal interactions between engineered materials (e.g., bentonite buffers, cements, waste canister materials) and the host rock environment may drive alteration processes that affect the advantageous properties of some barrier materials. However, such alteration will also promote the formation of zeolites, hydrothermally formed minerals that may themselves act to isolate radionuclides. Understanding the environmental conditions that control radionuclide-sorbing properties of zeolites, such as Si/Al ratio or Na content, will be valuable for assessing the changing properties of engineered barrier materials in the case of an in situ heating event. Here, we present experimental work characterizing the formation of zeolites during hydrothermal interactions between generic clay and cement barrier materials, with a focus on the analcime-wairakite zeolite series, which has known radionuclide sorption and exchange properties. We present the results of hydrothermal experiments combining uncured ordinary Portland cement powder with steel and Wyoming bentonite in the presence of Opalinus clay and a synthesized Opalinus clay groundwater to simulate water-saturated conditions in an argillaceous rock repository. The experiments were conducted isothermally at 200 or 300 °C for 8 to 24 weeks. In contrast to analogous studies that did not include cement reactants, we observed the formation of analcime-group minerals in all experiments. The addition of cement resulted in lower Si/Al ratios in the zeolites compared to similar studies that did not include cement. The presence of cement as a reactant was interpreted to promote analcime formation at 200 °C. At 300 °C, we observed higher calcium and silica concentrations in the aqueous solutions as well as increased wairakite formation and decreased analcime formation compared to the experiments at 200 °C. These results show a fully realized analcime-wairakite solid solution that falls between Si/Al = 2 (ideal) and a trend of analcime minerals that have increasing Si/Al ratios with increasing Na/(Na+Ca). Our results show predictable relationships between the Si/Al ratio and the analcime-wairakite content under hydrothermal conditions and illustrate that repository material interactions may promote the formation of zeolites in the analcime-wairakite solid-solution series during heating events in the subsurface.
Summary of Information Available and Recommendations for a Doe Complex-Wide Waste Glass Database
The purpose of this document is to summarize the existing repositories of nuclear waste glass property-composition data produced for DOE. A framework is described for consolidation of the data into a single database. Recommended attributes of the consolidated database are provided, including quality assurance, the user interface, and means for updates and maintenance. Future work will utilize the framework described herein to produce the complex-wide database and establish the user interface.
Water transport pathway in clay interlayer upon dehydration [Slides]
Smectite (e.g., Montmorillonite): phyllosilicate minerals found in bentonites. Bentonites have been considered as key backfill barrier materials in deep geological nuclear waste repository concepts. Swelling/shrinking of montmorillonite (MMT) occurs with increasing/decreasing relative humidity. Our research question is, "Microscopically, how does the hydration/dehydration process occur?"
Water transport pathway in clay interlayer upon dehydration [Slides]
Smectite (e.g., Montmorillonite): phyllosilicate minerals found in bentonites. Bentonites have been considered as key backfill barrier materials in deep geological nuclear waste repository concepts. Swelling/shrinking of montmorillonite (MMT) occurs with increasing/decreasing relative humidity. Microscopically, how does the hydration/dehydration process occur?
Investigating the Roughness and Advance Rate of the Weathering Interface (Final Report)
To understand geological systems that are important to our national well-being -- such as nuclear waste repositories or hydraulically fractured rocks -- requires the ability to make quantitative projections of the evolution of rock-water systems forward in time. A fundamental goal of much of our geochemical research was focused on development of numerical models of reactive transport to simulate the evolution of natural water-rock systems. The geochemical community has provided such models and they are rapidly being improved with field-model cross-testing. This project was especially impactful in field-model testing for well-constrained weathering systems to provide new conceptual understanding of how these systems function.
Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty
Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.
Performance assessment for climate intervention (PACI): preliminary application to a stratospheric aerosol injection scenario
As the prospect of exceeding global temperature targets set forth in the Paris Agreement becomes more likely, methods of climate intervention are increasingly being explored. With this increased interest there is a need for an assessment process to understand the range of impacts across different scenarios against a set of performance goals in order to support policy decisions. The methodology and tools developed for Performance Assessment (PA) for nuclear waste repositories shares many similarities with the needs and requirements for a framework for climate intervention. Using PA, we outline and test an evaluation framework for climate intervention, called Performance Assessment for Climate Intervention (PACI) with a focus on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). We define a set of key technical components for the example PACI framework which include identifying performance goals, the extent of the system, and identifying which features, events, and processes are relevant and impactful to calculating model output for the system given the performance goals. Having identified a set of performance goals, the performance of the system, including uncertainty, can then be evaluated against these goals. Using the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) scenario, we develop a set of performance goals for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought index, soil water, solar flux, and surface runoff. The assessment assumes that targets may be framed in the context of risk-risk via a risk ratio, or the ratio of the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the SAI scenario against the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the emissions scenario. From regional responses, across multiple climate variables, it is then possible to assess which pathway carries lower risk relative to the goals. The assessment is not comprehensive but rather a demonstration of the evaluation of an SAI scenario. Future work is needed to develop a more complete assessment that would provide additional simulations to cover parametric and aleatory uncertainty and enable a deeper understanding of impacts, informed scenario selection, and allow further refinements to the approach.
(Paper) TRIPWIRE: Multi-modal Distributed Sensing For Repository Verification
Underground geological repositories for storing used nuclear fuel are being planned and developed around the world. Research is being performed to understand technical aspects of sealing entombed materials and underground repositories to ensure the radiological and nuclear materials remain contained. To support safeguards verification for these facilities research at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is underway to develop and demonstrate a multi-modal sensor system, TRIPWIRE, for containment verification in inaccessible radiological and nuclear waste repositories. The TRIPWIRE system will continuously monitor ionizing radiation and electromagnetic fields in the vicinity of emplaced nuclear materials buried in a repository, reporting on disturbances with a real-time alarm control station. The system will use long-length scintillating fiber bundles (SFBs) to perform area radiation monitoring; these will be coupled to kilometer-scale multimodal optical communication fibers – all light sensors and electronic components used with this system will be located above ground. Electromagnetic fields, and changes in local dielectric conditions caused by intrusion and soil movement, will be monitored using commercial grade, ported "leaky" coaxial cables (PCCs), with control electronics also located above ground. Tamper-indicating self-diagnostic assessments will be done using optical and electronic time domain reflectometry in the SFBs and PCCs, respectively. The result will be a long, kilometer-scale multi-modal SFB-PCC system. Simulation and modeling are being used to inform the work and a demonstration of the system's utility is planned at a nuclear storage facility in the future.
Overview of Salt Repository Research and Development for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-level Nuclear Waste in the United States - 20307
This paper summarizes the current US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy's (DOE-NE) work towards developing and executing a research and development program that addresses both scientific and technical issues related to long-term disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW) in a hypothetical bedded salt based geological repository. A primary goal of the program is to create a generic Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework that can be used to help guide decisions on siting a possible future bedded salt repository. The generic GDSA work includes analysis of the impacts of heat generation caused by decay of short-lived radionuclides. We report progress in four primary areas. First, we discuss the development and recent modifications of a research and development road-map. Second, we briefly describe an experimental approach to better understand thermal processes in salt. Third, we highlight collaborations with the international research community that leverage salt-based repository science around the world. Finally, we discuss how our findings are being used to aid in the development of a generic safety assessment for a bedded salt repository containing SNF and HLW. (authors)
Challenges and Perspectives in Newcomer Deep Geologic Repository Programs US Status of Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposition.
Abstract not provided.