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Qualitative Decision and Risk Assessment Approaches for Managing Nuclear Materials - 19061

Qualitative approaches to performing decision analyses and risk assessments have recently been developed at ORNL with the goal of providing simple tools to help manage complex projects that have a variety of drivers, constraints, or both. Many of the DoE's nuclear materials management projects involve making 'keep-or-dispose' decisions for nuclear materials and then developing projects to manage or dispose of the materials. ORNL uses decision analysis tools to identify and rank options for accomplishing nuclear materials management projects, and risk assessment tools to evaluate the preferred option(s) to identify risks and prioritize mitigation actions to reduce risks during implementation. This paper focuses on application of the decision analysis and risk-based planning tool(s) to guide management of projects during the planning and start-up phases when only preliminary project information is likely to be available. Such an analysis seeks to reduce risks, lower costs, and improve chances of project success. Examples showing the use of the tools in nuclear waste management scenarios are provided. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

IMPACT OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL DISSOLUTION ON VESSEL CORROSION

Different nuclear materials require different processing conditions. In order to maximize the dissolver vessel lifetime, corrosion testing was conducted for a range of chemistries and temperature used in fuel dissolution. Compositional ranges of elements regularly in the dissolver were evaluated for corrosion of 304L, the material of construction. Corrosion rates of AISI Type 304 stainless steel coupons, both welded and non-welded coupons, were calculated from measured weight losses and post-test concentrations of soluble Fe, Cr and Ni.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Recommendations for a Fundamental Nuclear Material Control (FNMC) Plan for TRISO Fuel Fabrication Facilities Under NRC Regulations

A fundamental nuclear material control (FNMC) plan, which is required for all fuel fabrication facilities that are authorized to possess more than 1 effective kg of special nuclear material, describes how material control and accounting (MC&A) requirements will be met to comply with US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations. Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel fabrication facilities are likely to have issues in meeting MC&A requirements because of the new processes and fuel types their work involves. This report provides recommendations for an FNMC plan specifically for a TRISO fuel fabrication facility under NRC regulations and includes a draft outline of an FNMC plan. This report was produced for the Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program under the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technologies programs within the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Combined Photoneutron And X Ray Interrogation Of Containers For Nuclear Materials

Effective cargo inspection systems for nuclear material detection require good penetration by the interrogating radiation, generation of a sufficient number of fissions, and strong and penetrating detection signatures. Inspection systems need also to be sensitive over a wide range of cargo types and densities encountered in daily commerce. Thus they need to be effective with highly hydrogenous cargo, where neutron attenuation is a major limitation, as well as with dense metallic cargo, where x-ray penetration is low. A system that interrogates cargo with both neutrons and x-rays can, in principle, achieve high performance over the widest range of cargos. Moreover, utilizing strong prompt-neutron ({approx}3 per fission) and delayed-gamma ray ({approx}7 per fission) signatures further strengthens the detection sensitivity across all cargo types. The complementary nature of x-rays and neutrons, used as both probing radiation and detection signatures, alleviates the need to employ exceedingly strong sources, which would otherwise be required to achieve adequate performance across all cargo types, if only one type of radiation probe were employed. A system based on the above principles, employing a commercially-available 9 MV linac was developed and designed. Neutrons are produced simultaneously with x-rays by the photonuclear interaction of the x-ray beam with a suitable converter. A total neutron yield on the order of 10{sup 11} n/s is achieved with an average electron beam current of 100 {mu}A. If fissionable material is present, fissions are produced both by the high-energy x-ray beam and by the photoneutrons. Photofission and neutron fission dominate in hydrogenous and metallic cargos, respectively. Neutron-capture gamma rays provide information on the cargo composition. The prompt neutrons resulting from fission are detected by two independent detector systems: by very efficient Differential Die Away Analysis (DDAA) detectors, and by direct detection of neutrons with energies higher than 3 MeV using a recently developed fluorine-based threshold activation detector (TAD). The delayed gamma-ray signals are measured with high efficiency with the same TAD and with additional lower-cost plastic scintillators.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Analysis of Nuclear Materials on Both Sides of Regulatory Control: from IAEA Safeguards to Global Counter-Nuclear Smuggling

Global nuclear security is dependent upon the sustained and verifiable control of radiological and nuclear (R/N) materials within nuclear facilities, under the administrative purview of national governments. It is the responsibility of each country to account for their R/N materials holdings and to ensure that they do not escape regulatory control and fall into the wrong hands. The Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) is tasked with providing support to foreign partners in developing the tools and expertise to detect, disrupt, and investigate R/N materials encountered out of regulatory control, in such circumstances as at border crossings and other checkpoints, or in the course of routine policework. Thankfully, such incidents are infrequent, and NSDD continues to work bilaterally with partner countries to strengthen their capabilities to combat nuclear smuggling and trafficking incidents in their countries. For the vast majority of R/N materials that remain under regulatory control, however, it is critical that their safe storage and use be independently verified. Even a single loss incident of R/N materials, particularly of special nuclear materials (highly-enriched uranium and plutonium) has the potential to cause a catastrophe. How can the international community be assured that R/N materials currently under national regulatory control remain there?

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Extreme Spectroscopy: In situ nuclear materials behavior from optical data

In the nuclear industry, materials are regularly exposed to high temperature or/and irradiation and a better knowledge and understanding of their behavior under such extreme conditions is a key-point for improvements and further developments. Nowadays, Raman spectroscopy begins to be well known as a promising technique in the post mortem and remote characterization of nuclear materials exposed to extreme conditions. On this topic, at ANIMMA 2013 conference, we have presented some results about its implementation in the study of model or real nuclear fuel. However, the strength of Raman spectroscopy as in situ characterization tool is mainly its ability to be implemented remotely through optical fibers. Aware of this, implementation of other optical techniques can be considered in order to gain information not only on the structural dynamics of materials but also on the electronic charge carrier populations. In this paper, we propose to present our last advances in Raman characterization of nuclear materials and enlarge to the in situ use of complementary optical spectroscopies. Emphasis will be made on the information that can be gained to the behavior of the model fuel depleted UO{sub 2} under extreme conditions of high temperature and ionic irradiation: - In Situ Raman identification of the radiolysis alteration products of UO{sub 2} in contact with water under ionic irradiation. - In Situ Raman recording of the damaged dynamic of UO{sub 2} under inert atmosphere. - In Situ Raman and photo-luminescence study of virgin and damaged UO2 at high temperature. - In Situ study of electronic charge carriers' behavior in U{sub x}Th{sub 1-x}O{sub 2} solid solutions by mean of Iono- and Thermo- luminescence under and post- ionic irradiation. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Nuclear Material Management and Storage Program: Storage Health Metrics

The Strategic Materials Sustainment Program (SMSP) supports activities needed to manage the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) inventory of strategic materials. As part of the SMSP, the Nuclear Material Management and Storage (NMM&S) program at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is responsible for: (1) safe and secure storage of the SMSP strategic materials and others, (2) analysis, forecasting, and management of accountable nuclear materials; and (3) disposition of nuclear material through the Office of Nuclear Materials Integration (ONMI). The nuclear material management (NMM) mission is to ensure efficient nuclear material management lifecycle activities at LANL. The storage program function includes the management of storage capabilities across the site, supply chain management of nuclear materials, storage requirements integration, and nuclear container management (i.e., procurement, compliance, and safety). This report identifies key performance indicators (KPI) and describes the criteria and metrics used to assess the health of the storage component of the NMM&S program. “Health” is the ability of a process, system, facility, or program to safely and reliably accomplish its required mission. A health assessment provides timely identification of significant risks to enable mission performance. Significant risks identified are most effectively mitigated, avoided, or eliminated by evaluating and coordinating with stakeholders to specifically target, document, and often proceduralize strategies directed towards risk reduction. An effective health assessment involves status measurements of specific metrics that are tied directly to representative KPIs for a program. This document will baseline the KPI, criteria, and specific metrics that will be used to measure the “health” of the LANL Storage Program (i.e., NMM is not included).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Innovative Nuclear Materials Outboard-A Project Specimen Preparation Guide

The Innovative Nuclear Materials (INM) Program was recently established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop advanced material technologies for use in nuclear reactors. The INM program is presently focused on researching in-core non-fueled materials for application in fast spectrum nuclear reactors. The widespread deployment of fast reactors continues to be a prominent aspiration for advanced nuclear technology developers. However, companies working to license these reactors have no choice but to rely on historic material technologies since further optimization and advancement of these materials is impeded by the lack of fast neutron irradiation test facilities. INM-OA is a non-fueled drop-in experiment which will irradiate material specimens of interest to fast reactor applications. This experiment will be irradiated at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outboard-A (OA) position during normal and high temperature steady state (HTSS) cycles. It will include material specimens supplied by members of the INM program and will utilize a cadmium-lined basket to filter out incident thermal neutrons, thus simulating a faster neutron energy spectrum. Material specimens will undergo post-irradiation examination including microscopy and mechanical testing. In addition to absorption reactions, fast neutrons cause microstructural damage in materials by atom displacement, which can cause exacerbated changes in physical properties and behavior. Thus, the data obtained from the INM-OA experiment will be crucial for understanding the engineering-scale behavior of reactor materials. This document is intended for the Principal Investigators providing samples for this project. Topics included are a general description of the experiment, the irradiation experiment/capsule design, sample geometries, number of samples to be provided, documentation to be provided, a brief list potentially useful characterization methods that can be leveraged at INL, and other miscellaneous requirements specific to this project. This document is intended for informational use only.

innovative nuclear materials↗

Pulsed Photofission Delayed Gamma Ray Detection for Nuclear Material Identification

Innovative systems with increased sensitivity and resolution are in great demand to detect diversion and to prevent misuse in support of nuclear materials management for the U.S. fuel cycle. Nuclear fission is the most important multiplicative process involved in non-destructive active interrogation. This process produces the most easily recognizable signature for nuclear materials. High-energy gamma rays can also excite a nucleus and cause fission through a process known as photofission. After photofission reactions, delayed signals are easily distinguishable from the interrogating radiation. Linac-based, advanced inspection techniques utilizing the fission signals after photofission have been extensively studied for homeland security applications. Previous research also showed that a unique delayed gamma ray energy spectrum exists for each fissionable isotope. Isotopic composition measurement methods based on delayed gamma ray spectroscopy will be the primary focus of this work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Qualitative Decision and Risk Assessment Approaches for Managing Nuclear Materials

Qualitative approaches to performing decision analyses and risk assessments have recently been developed at ORNL with the goal of providing simple tools to help manage complex projects that have a variety of drivers, constraints, or both. Many of the DOE’s nuclear materials management projects involve making “keep-or-dispose” decisions for nuclear materials and then developing projects to manage or dispose of the materials. ORNL uses decision analysis tools to identify and rank options for accomplishing nuclear materials management projects, and risk assessment tools to evaluate the preferred option(s) to identify risks and prioritize mitigation actions to reduce risks during implementation. This paper focuses on application of the decision analysis and risk-based planning tool(s) to guide management of projects during the planning and start-up phases when only preliminary project information is likely to be available. Such an analysis seeks to reduce risks, lower costs, and improve chances of project success. Examples showing the use of the tools in nuclear waste management scenarios are provided.

Jubin, Robert↗

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Statistical Analysis of Low Flow Filter Efficiency Testing Results for Nuclear Material Storage Container Filters

Air filters designed to contain plutonium particulates while allowing hydrogen gas to escape are used in a variety of low flow rate applications in the nuclear industry. Examples include nuclear material storage containers, glove box bag-out bags and waste drums. Filter efficiency testing is essential to ensure filter performance, and yet the low testing flow rates present some challenges because the testing flow rates can be 5 to 6 orders of magnitude lower than those used to test large HEP A filter systems used in facility ventilation systems. Statistical analysis of low flow filter efficiency test results on nuclear material storage container filters has proven to be essential to ensure that the testing processes, test equipment, and filters meet the design requirements. This poster will describe the testing apparatus used to test nuclear material storage container filters and the use of statistical methods to analyze low flow filter efficiency test results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

International Nuclear Security Nuclear Material Accounting and Control Kit Participant Guides

You work at a facility that stores large amounts of nuclear material in varying containerizations. Management has just approved the establishment of a tamper indicating device program in order to cut down on the effort required to conduct inventories, and to enhance overall control of nuclear materials within the site boundary. You have been assigned, along with your colleagues, to conduct an initial assessment to determine the ideal TID types to be used at your facility. You will apply TIDs to a variety of apparatuses that are representative of the closure mechanisms on different containers and entry points to rooms and vaults onsite.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Final Report: Part 1. In-Place Filter Testing Instrument for Nuclear Material Containers. Part 2. Canister Filter Test Standards for Aerosol Capture Rates.

A portable instrument has been developed to assess the functionality of filter sand o-rings on nuclear material storage canisters, without requiring removal of the canister lid. Additionally, a set of fifteen filter standards were procured for verifying aerosol leakage and pressure drop measurements in the Los Alamos Filter Test System. The US Department of Energy uses several thousand canisters for storing nuclear material in different chemical and physical forms. Specialized filters are installed into canister lids to allow gases to escape, and to maintain an internal ambient pressure while containing radioactive contaminants. Diagnosing the condition of container filters and canister integrity is important to ensure worker and public safety and for determining the handling requirements of legacy apparatus. This report describes the In-Place-Filter-Tester, the Instrument Development Plan and the Instrument Operating Method that were developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to determine the “as found” condition of unopened storage canisters. The Instrument Operating Method provides instructions for future evaluations of as-found canisters packaged with nuclear material. Customized stainless steel canister interfaces were developed for pressure-port access and to apply a suction clamping force for the interface. These are compatible with selected Hagan-style and SAVY-4000 storage canisters that were purchased from NFT (Nuclear Filter Technology, Golden, CO). Two instruments were developed for this effort: an initial Los Alamos POC (Proof-of-Concept) unit and the final Los Alamos IPFT system. The Los Alamos POC was used to create the Instrument Development Plan: (1) to determine the air flow and pressure characteristics associated with canister filter clogging, and (2) to test simulated configurations that mimicked canister leakage paths. The canister leakage scenarios included quantifying: (A) air leakage due to foreign material (i.e. dust and hair) fouling of o-rings, (B) leakage through simulated cracks in o-rings, and (C) air leakage due to inadequately tightened canister lids. The Los Alamos POC instrument determined pertinent air flow and pressure quantities, and this knowledge was used to specify a customized Isaac® (Z axis, Salt Lake City, UT) leak test module. The final Los Alamos IPFT (incorporating the Isaac® leak test module) was used to repeat the tests in the Instrument Development Plan (with simulated filter clogging tests and canister leak pathway tests). The Los Alamos IPFT instrument is capable of determining filter clogging and leak rate conditions, without requiring removal of the container lid. The IPFT measures pressure decay rate from 1.7E-03 in WC/sec to 1.7E-01 in WC/sec. On the same unit scale, helium leak testing of canisters has a range from 5.7E-07 in WC/sec to 1.9E-03 in WC/sec. For a 5-quart storage canister, the IPFT measures equivalent leak flow rates from 0.03 to 3.0 cc/sec. The IPFT does not provide the same sensitivity as helium leak testing, but is able to gauge the assembled condition of as-found and in-situ canisters.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗