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Pilot/Controller Coordinated Decision Making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Introduction: NextGen technologies promise to provide considerable benefits in terms of enhancing operations and improving safety. However, there needs to be a thorough human factors evaluation of the way these systems will change the way in which pilot and controllers share information. The likely impact of these new technologies on pilot/controller coordinated decision making is considered in this paper using the "operational, informational and evaluative disconnect" framework. Method: Five participant focus groups were held. Participants were four experts in human factors, between x and x research students and a technical expert. The participant focus group evaluated five key NextGen technologies to identify issues that made different disconnects more or less likely. Results: Issues that were identified were: Decision Making will not necessarily improve because pilots and controllers possess the same information; Having a common information source does not mean pilots and controllers are looking at the same information; High levels of automation may lead to disconnects between the technology and pilots/controllers; Common information sources may become the definitive source for information; Overconfidence in the automation may lead to situations where appropriate breakdowns are not initiated. Discussion: The issues that were identified lead to recommendations that need to be considered in the development of NextGen technologies. The current state of development of these technologies provides a good opportunity to utilize recommendations at an early stage so that NextGen technologies do not lead to difficulties in resolving breakdowns in coordinated decision making.

Bearman, Chris

Investigating the Nature of and Methods for Managing Metroplex Operations

A combination of traffic demand growth, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) technologies and operational concepts, and increased utilization of regional airports is expected to increase the occurrence and severity of coupling between operations at proximate airports. These metroplex phenomena constrain the efficiency and/or capacity of airport operations and, in NextGen, have the potential to reduce safety and prevent environmental benefits. Without understanding the nature of metroplexes and developing solutions that provide efficient coordination of operations between closely-spaced airports, the use of NextGen technologies and distribution of demand to regional airports may provide little increase in the overall metroplex capacity. However, the characteristics and control of metroplex operations have not received significant study. This project advanced the state of knowledge about metroplexes by completing three objectives: 1. developed a foundational understand of the nature of metroplexes; 2. provided a framework for discussing metroplexes; 3. suggested and studied an approach for optimally managing metroplexes that is consistent with other NextGen concepts

Atkins, Stephen

A Common Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Infrastructure for Accommodating Space Vehicles in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Suborbital space flight and space tourism are new potential markets that could significantly impact the National Airspace System (NAS). Numerous private companies are developing space flight capabilities to capture a piece of an emerging commercial space transportation market. These entrepreneurs share a common vision that sees commercial space flight as a profitable venture. Additionally, U.S. space exploration policy and national defense will impose significant additional demands on the NAS. Air traffic service providers must allow all users fair access to limited airspace, while ensuring that the highest levels of safety, security, and efficiency are maintained. The FAA's Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) will need to accommodate spacecraft transitioning to and from space through the NAS. To accomplish this, space and air traffic operations will need to be seamlessly integrated under some common communications, navigation and surveillance (CNS) infrastructure. As part of NextGen, the FAA has been developing the Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) which utilizes the Global Positioning System (GPS) to track and separate aircraft. Another key component of NextGen, System-Wide Information Management/ Network Enabled Operations (SWIM/NEO), is an open architecture network that will provide NAS data to various customers, system tools and applications. NASA and DoD are currently developing a space-based range (SBR) concept that also utilizes GPS, communications satellites and other CNS assets. The future SBR will have very similar utility for space operations as ADS-B and SWIM has for air traffic. Perhaps the FAA, NASA, and DoD should consider developing a common space-based CNS infrastructure to support both aviation and space transportation operations. This paper suggests specific areas of research for developing a CNS infrastructure that can accommodate spacecraft and other new types of vehicles as an integrated part of NextGen.

VanSuetendael, RIchard

Initial Concept for Terminal Area Conflict Detection, Alerting, and Resolution Capability On or Near the Airport Surface, Version 2.0

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept for 2025 envisions the movement of large numbers of people and goods in a safe, efficient, and reliable manner. The NextGen will remove many of the constraints in the current air transportation system, support a wider range of operations, and deliver an overall system capacity up to 3 times that of current operating levels. In order to achieve the NextGen vision, research is necessary in the areas of surface traffic optimization, maximum runway capacity, reduced runway occupancy time, simultaneous single runway operations, and terminal area conflict prevention, among others. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting Collision Avoidance for Airport Traffic (CAAT) research to develop technologies, data, and guidelines to enable Conflict Detection and Resolution (CD&R) in the Airport Terminal Maneuvering Area (ATMA) under current and emerging NextGen operating concepts. The term ATMA was created to reflect the fact that the CD&R concept area of operation is focused near the airport within the terminal maneuvering area. In the following, an initial concept for an aircraft-based method for CD&R in the ATMA is presented. This method is based upon previous NASA work in CD&R for runway incursion prevention, the Runway Incursion Prevention System (RIPS).

Otero, Sharon D.

An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

Horio, Brant M.

Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM): A Blueprint for Greater Autonomy in Air Traffic Management

The aviation users of the National Airspace System (NAS) - the airlines, General Aviation (GA), the military and, most recently, operators of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) - are constrained in their operations by the design of the current paradigm for air traffic control (ATC). Some of these constraints include ATC preferred routes, departure fix restrictions and airspace ground delay programs. As a result, most flights cannot operate on their most efficient business trajectories and a great many flights are delayed even getting into the air, which imposes a significant challenge to maintaining efficient flight and network operations. Rather than accepting ever more sophisticated scheduling solutions to accommodate the existing constraints in the airspace, a series of increasingly capable airborne technologies, integrated with planned improvements in the ground system through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Next Generation Air Traffic Management System (NextGen) programs, could produce much greater operational flexibility for flight path optimization by the aviation system users. These capabilities, described in research coming out of NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, can maintain or improve operational safety while taking advantage of air and ground NextGen technologies in novel ways. The underlying premise is that the nation's physical airspace is still abundant and underused, and that the delays and inefficient flight operations resulting from artificial structure in airspace use and procedural constraints on those operations may not be necessary for safe and efficient flight. This article is not an indictment of today's NAS or the people who run it. Indeed, it is an exceptional achievement that Air Traffic Management (ATM) - the complex human/machine conglomeration of communications, navigation and surveillance equipment and the rules and procedures for controlling traffic in the airspace - has both the capacity and enables the degree of efficiency in air travel that it does. But it is also true that sixty years of the "radar religion" (i.e., reliance on radar-based command and control) has produced several generations of ATM system operators and researchers who believe that introducing automation within the existing functional structure of ATM is the only way to "modernize" the system. Even NextGen, which began as a proposal for "transformational" change in the way ATC is performed, has morphed over the last decade and a half to become just the inclusion of Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation, Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) for surveillance, and Data Communications (Data Comm) for communications, while still operating in rigidly structured airspace with human controllers being responsible for separation and traffic flow management (TFM) within defined sectors of airspace, using the same horizontal separation standards that have been in use since raw primary radar was introduced in the 1950s. No system as massive as the current NAS ATM can be replaced with a better system while simultaneously meeting the transportation and other aviation needs of the nation. A new generation of more flexible operations must emerge and yet coexist in harmony with the current operation (i.e., share the same airspace without segregation), thereby enabling a long-term transformation to take place in the way increasing numbers of flights are handled. Market forces will be the ultimate driver of this transformation, and investment realities mandate that real benefits must accrue to the first operators to adopt these new capabilities. In fact, the kinds of missions envisioned in the emerging world of UAS operations, unachievable under conventional ATM, demand that this transformation take place. Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM) is proposed as a series of transformational steps leading to vastly increased flexibility in flight operations and capacity in the airspace to accommodate many varied airspace uses while improving safety. As will be described, ABTM enables the gradual emergence of a new paradigm for user-based trajectory management in ATM that brings tangible benefits to equipped operators at every step while leveraging the air and ground investments of NextGen. There are five steps in this ABTM transformation.1 NASA has extensively studied the first and last of these steps, and a roadmap of increasing capabilities and benefits is proposed for bridging between these operational concepts.

Cotton, William B.

Station Impact Analysis 2025

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium, the NextGen Profiles (NGP) project presents analysis and results from the study of High Power Charging Electric Vehicles and Battery Charging Infrastructure. High Power Charging equipment is capable of recharging electric vehicle traction batteries at power levels of 200KW and above. The intent of the project is to further understand the most recent technological capabilities of the electric mobility industry related to charging performance. The project aims to develop EV, EVSE, and Fleet characterization testing practices and comprehensive analysis with inputs from key industry stakeholders. The results published in this NextGen Profiles project report provide data and insight for use by numerous entities including modeling and simulation organizations, policy makers, fleet planners, industry stakeholders and the general public involved with the development, deployment and operation of electrified transportation technologies. The factors influencing Electric Vehicle (EV) Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC), including EV battery specifications, temperature effects on lithium-ion battery and power electronics performance, lithium-ion battery SOC bounding and charging station design considerations are specifically investigated to analyze their impacts on charging station operation and recommendations are made to minimize charge station dwell time, reduce charging costs and mitigate electric grid and charge station congestion. Additional high-power charging results are anticipated in future publications in support of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium NextGen Profiles project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Towards Intelligent Control for Next Generation Aircraft

NASA Aeronautics Subsonic Fixed Wing Project is focused on mitigating the environmental and operation impacts expected as aviation operations triple by 2025. The approach is to extend technological capabilities and explore novel civil transport configurations that reduce noise, emissions, fuel consumption and field length. Two Next Generation (NextGen) aircraft have been identified to meet the Subsonic Fixed Wing Project goals - these are the Hybrid Wing-Body (HWB) and Cruise Efficient Short Take-Off and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft. The technologies and concepts developed for these aircraft complicate the vehicle s design and operation. In this paper, flight control challenges for NextGen aircraft are described. The objective of this paper is to examine the potential of state-of-the-art control architectures and algorithms to meet the challenges and needed performance metrics for NextGen flight control. A broad range of conventional and intelligent control approaches are considered, including dynamic inversion control, integrated flight-propulsion control, control allocation, adaptive dynamic inversion control, data-based predictive control and reinforcement learning control.

Acosta, Diana Michelle

4D Dynamic RNP Annual Interim Report-Year 1

This Annual Interim Report summarizes the activities led by Raytheon, in collaboration with GE Aviation and SAIC, and presents the results obtained during the first year of this research effort to expand the RNP concept to 4 dimensions relative to a dynamic frame of reference. Joint Program Development Office (JPDO)Concepts of Operations for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) considers 4 Dimension Trajectory (4DT) procedures a key enabler to Trajectory Based Operations (TBO). The JPDO defines 4DT as a precise description of an aircraft path in space and time . While NextGen assumes that this path is defined within an Earth-reference frame, many 4DT procedure implementations will require an aircraft to precisely navigate relative to a moving reference such as another aircraft to form aggregate flows or a weather cell to allow for flows to shift. Current methods of implementing routes and flight paths rely on aircraft meeting a Required Navigation Performance (RNP) specification and being equipped with a monitoring and alerting capability to annunciate when the aircraft system is unable to meet the performance specification required for the operation. Since all aircraft today operate within the NAS relative to fixed reference points, the current RNP definition is deemed satisfactory. However, it is not well understood how the current RNP construct will support NextGen 4DT procedures where aircraft operate relative to each other or to other dynamic frames of reference. The objective of this research effort is to analyze candidate 4DT procedures from both an Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) and aircraft perspective, to identify their specific navigational requirements, assess the shortcomings of the current RNP construct to meet these requirements, to propose an extended 4 Dimensional Dynamic RNP (4D Dynamic RNP) construct that accounts for the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of the selected 4DT procedures, and finally, to design an experiment using the Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) system to validate the 4D Dynamic RNP construct. This Annual Interim Report summarizes the activities led by Raytheon, in collaboration with GE Aviation and SAIC, and presents the results obtained during the first year of this research effort to expand the RNP concept to 4 dimensions relative to a dynamic frame of reference. A comprehensive assessment of the state-of-the-art international implementation of current RNP was completed and presented in the Contractor Report RNP State-of-the-Art Assessment, Version 4, 17 December 2008 . The team defined in detail two 4DT operations, Airborne Precision Spacing and Self-Separation, that are ideally suited to be supported by 4D Dynamic RNP and developed their respective conceptual frameworks, Required Interval Management Performance (RIMP) Version 1.1, 13 April 2009 and Required Self Separation Performance (RSSP) Version 1.1, 13 April 2009 . Finally, the team started the development of a mathematical model and simulation tool for RIMP and RSSP scheduled to be delivered during the second year of this research effort.

Finkelsztein, Daniel M.

Sensitivity Analysis of Linear Programming and Quadratic Programming Algorithms for Control Allocation

The Next Generation (NextGen) transport aircraft configurations being investigated as part of the NASA Aeronautics Subsonic Fixed Wing Project have more control surfaces, or control effectors, than existing transport aircraft configurations. Conventional flight control is achieved through two symmetric elevators, two antisymmetric ailerons, and a rudder. The five effectors, reduced to three command variables, produce moments along the three main axes of the aircraft and enable the pilot to control the attitude and flight path of the aircraft. The NextGen aircraft will have additional redundant control effectors to control the three moments, creating a situation where the aircraft is over-actuated and where a simple relationship does not exist anymore between the required effector deflections and the desired moments. NextGen flight controllers will incorporate control allocation algorithms to determine the optimal effector commands and attain the desired moments, taking into account the effector limits. Approaches to solving the problem using linear programming and quadratic programming algorithms have been proposed and tested. It is of great interest to understand their relative advantages and disadvantages and how design parameters may affect their properties. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of the effector commands with respect to the desired moments and show on some examples that the solutions provided using the l2 norm of quadratic programming are less sensitive than those using the l1 norm of linear programming.

Frost, Susan A.

Breakdowns in Coordination Between Air Traffic Controllers

This talk outlines the complexity of coordination in air traffic control, introduces the NextGen technologies, identifies common causes for coordination breakdowns in air traffic control and examines whether these causes are likely to be reduced with the introduction of NextGen technologies. While some of the common causes of breakdowns will be reduced in a NextGen environment this conclusion should be drawn carefully given the current stage of development of the technologies and the observation that new technologies often shift problems rather than reduce them.

Bearman, Chris

Benefits of Sharing Information from Commercial Airborne Forward-Looking Sensors in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

The air transportation system of the future will need to support much greater traffic densities than are currently possible, while preserving or improving upon current levels of safety. Concepts are under development to support a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) that by some estimates will need to support up to three times current capacity by the year 2025. Weather and other atmospheric phenomena, such as wake vortices and volcanic ash, constitute major constraints on airspace system capacity and can present hazards to aircraft if encountered. To support safe operations in the NextGen environment advanced systems for collection and dissemination of aviation weather and environmental information will be required. The envisioned NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) infrastructure will be a critical component of the aviation weather support services, providing access to a common weather picture for all system users. By taking advantage of Network Enabled Operations (NEO) capabilities, a virtual 4-D Weather Data Cube with aviation weather information from many sources will be developed. One new source of weather observations may be airborne forward-looking sensors, such as the X-band weather radar. Future sensor systems that are the subject of current research include advanced multi-frequency and polarimetric radar, a variety of Lidar technologies, and infrared imaging spectrometers.

Schaffner, Philip R.

Airport Traffic Conflict Detection and Resolution Algorithm Evaluation

A conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) concept for the terminal maneuvering area (TMA) was evaluated in a fast-time batch simulation study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center. The CD&R concept is being designed to enhance surface situation awareness and provide cockpit alerts of potential conflicts during runway, taxi, and low altitude air-to-air operations. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the performance of aircraft-based CD&R algorithms in the TMA, as a function of surveillance accuracy. This paper gives an overview of the CD&R concept, simulation study, and results. The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept for the year 2025 and beyond envisions the movement of large numbers of people and goods in a safe, efficient, and reliable manner [1]. NextGen will remove many of the constraints in the current air transportation system, support a wider range of operations, and provide an overall system capacity up to three times that of current operating levels. Emerging NextGen operational concepts [2], such as four-dimensional trajectory based airborne and surface operations, equivalent visual operations, and super density arrival and departure operations, require a different approach to air traffic management and as a result, a dramatic shift in the tasks, roles, and responsibilities for the flight deck and air traffic control (ATC) to ensure a safe, sustainable air transportation system.

Jones, Denise R.

Metrics for Operator Situation Awareness, Workload, and Performance in Automated Separation Assurance Systems

A research consortium of scientists and engineers from California State University Long Beach (CSULB), San Jose State University Foundation (SJSUF), California State University Northridge (CSUN), Purdue University, and The Boeing Company was assembled to evaluate the impact of changes in roles and responsibilities and new automated technologies, being introduced in the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), on operator situation awareness (SA) and workload. To meet these goals, consortium members performed systems analyses of NextGen concepts and airspace scenarios, and concurrently evaluated SA, workload, and performance measures to assess their appropriateness for evaluations of NextGen concepts and tools. The following activities and accomplishments were supported by the NRA: a distributed simulation, metric development, systems analysis, part-task simulations, and large-scale simulations. As a result of this NRA, we have gained a greater understanding of situation awareness and its measurement, and have shared our knowledge with the scientific community. This network provides a mechanism for consortium members, colleagues, and students to pursue research on other topics in air traffic management and aviation, thus enabling them to make greater contributions to the field

Strybel, Thomas Z.

Acceptability of Flight Deck-Based Interval Management Crew Procedures

The Interval Management for Near-term Operations Validation of Acceptability (IM-NOVA) experiment was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) in support of the NASA Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Airspace Systems Program's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD-1). ATD-1 is intended to showcase an integrated set of technologies that provide an efficient arrival solution for managing aircraft using NextGen surveillance, navigation, procedures, and automation for both airborne and ground-based systems. The goal of the IM-NOVA experiment was to assess if procedures outlined by the ATD-1 Concept of Operations, when used with a minimum set of Flight deck-based Interval Management (FIM) equipment and a prototype crew interface, were acceptable to and feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment. To investigate an integrated arrival solution using ground-based air traffic control tools and aircraft automatic dependent surveillance broadcast (ADS-B) tools, the LaRC FIM system and the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering and Controller Managed Spacing tools developed at the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) were integrated in LaRC's Air Traffic Operations Laboratory. Data were collected from 10 crews of current, qualified 757/767 pilots asked to fly a high-fidelity, fixed based simulator during scenarios conducted within an airspace environment modeled on the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Terminal Radar Approach Control area. The aircraft simulator was equipped with the Airborne Spacing for Terminal Area Routes algorithm and a FIM crew interface consisting of electronic flight bags and ADS-B guidance displays. Researchers used "pseudo-pilot" stations to control 24 simulated aircraft that provided multiple air traffic flows into DFW, and recently retired DFW air traffic controllers served as confederate Center, Feeder, Final, and Tower controllers. Pilot participant feedback indicated that the procedures used by flight crews to receive and execute interval management (IM) clearances in a voice communications environment were logical, easy to follow, did not contain any missing or extraneous steps, and required the use of an acceptable level of workload. The majority of the pilot participants found the IM concept, in addition to the proposed FIM crew procedures, to be acceptable and indicated that the ATD-1 procedures can be successfully executed in a near-term NextGen environment.

Murdock, Jennifer L.

Using Vision System Technologies to Enable Operational Improvements for Low Visibility Approach and Landing Operations

Flight deck-based vision systems, such as Synthetic and Enhanced Vision System (SEVS) technologies, have the potential to provide additional margins of safety for aircrew performance and enable the implementation of operational improvements for low visibility surface, arrival, and departure operations in the terminal environment with equivalent efficiency to visual operations. To achieve this potential, research is required for effective technology development and implementation based upon human factors design and regulatory guidance. This research supports the introduction and use of Synthetic Vision Systems and Enhanced Flight Vision Systems (SVS/EFVS) as advanced cockpit vision technologies in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) operations. Twelve air transport-rated crews participated in a motion-base simulation experiment to evaluate the use of SVS/EFVS in NextGen low visibility approach and landing operations. Three monochromatic, collimated head-up display (HUD) concepts (conventional HUD, SVS HUD, and EFVS HUD) and two color head-down primary flight display (PFD) concepts (conventional PFD, SVS PFD) were evaluated in a simulated NextGen Chicago O'Hare terminal environment. Additionally, the instrument approach type (no offset, 3 degree offset, 15 degree offset) was experimentally varied to test the efficacy of the HUD concepts for offset approach operations. The data showed that touchdown landing performance were excellent regardless of SEVS concept or type of offset instrument approach being flown. Subjective assessments of mental workload and situation awareness indicated that making offset approaches in low visibility conditions with an EFVS HUD or SVS HUD may be feasible.

Kramer, Lynda J.

Interval Management Display Design Study

In 2012, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated that U.S. commercial air carriers moved 736.7 million passengers over 822.3 billion revenue-passenger miles. The FAA also forecasts, in that same report, an average annual increase in passenger traffic of 2.2 percent per year for the next 20 years, which approximates to one-and-a-half times the number of today's aircraft operations and passengers by the year 2033. If airspace capacity and throughput remain unchanged, then flight delays will increase, particularly at those airports already operating near or at capacity. Therefore it is critical to create new and improved technologies, communications, and procedures to be used by air traffic controllers and pilots. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the FAA, and the aviation industry are working together to improve the efficiency of the National Airspace System and the cost to operate in it in several ways, one of which is through the creation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). NextGen is intended to provide airspace users with more precise information about traffic, routing, and weather, as well as improve the control mechanisms within the air traffic system. NASA's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-1 (ATD-1) Project is designed to contribute to the goals of NextGen, and accomplishes this by integrating three NASA technologies to enable fuel-efficient arrival operations into high-density airports. The three NASA technologies and procedures combined in the ATD-1 concept are advanced arrival scheduling, controller decision support tools, and aircraft avionics to enable multiple time deconflicted and fuel efficient arrival streams in high-density terminal airspace.

Baxley, Brian T.

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Geuther, Steven C.