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DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Moist Physics Processes, Its Generalizability and Stable Integration

Abstract With the recent advances in data science, machine learning has been increasingly applied to convection and cloud parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs). This study extends the work of Han et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002076 ) and uses an ensemble of 32‐layer deep convolutional residual neural networks, referred to as ResCu‐en, to emulate convection and cloud processes simulated by a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. ResCu‐en predicts GCM grid‐scale temperature and moisture tendencies, and cloud liquid and ice water contents from moist physics processes. The surface rainfall is derived from the column‐integrated moisture tendency. The prediction uncertainty inherent in deep learning algorithms in emulating the moist physics is reduced by ensemble averaging. Results in 1‐year independent offline validation show that ResCu‐en has high prediction accuracy for all output variables, both in the current climate and in a warmer climate with +4K sea surface temperature. The analysis of different neural net configurations shows that the success to generalize in a warmer climate is attributed to convective memory and the 1‐dimensional convolution layers incorporated into ResCu‐en. We further implement a member of ResCu‐en into CAM5 with real world geography and run the neural‐network‐enabled CAM5 (NCAM) for 5 years without encountering any numerical integration instability. The simulation generally captures the global distribution of the mean precipitation, with a better simulation of precipitation intensity and diurnal cycle. However, there are large biases in temperature and moisture in high latitudes. These results highlight the importance of convective memory and demonstrate the potential for machine learning to enhance climate modeling.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analog Systems for Edge Optimization

Over the past decade, analog computing has the subject of substantial research interest providing a path toward improved computational efficiency in the post-Dennard era. Analog matrix vector multiplication (MVM) accelerators provide a popular approach given the ubiquity of MVM operations in numerous applications. However, historically analog computing systems can struggle with applications requiring high precision due to the inherent susceptibility of these systems to analog non-idealities. Therefore, prior work on analog systems has focused either on applications known to be tolerant of limited precision (e.g., neural network inference), or using expensive techniques to emulate high-precision using many analog MVM operations. In this work, we propose an alternative approach. Motivated by recent advances in inexact nonlinear solvers and optimizers, we explore the potential of co-designing optimization algorithms which can take full advantage of the fundamentally inexact analog MVM operations. To enable these co-designed algorithms we also develop a general mathematical theory of the precision and energy efficiency of analog operations, and a new system architecture for tightly-coupled analog and digital computation. Finally, we examine the applicability of analog computing to a wider class of symmetric positive definite systems and find potential in using analog operations as a sparse approximate inverse preconditioner. With these core innovations, this project provides a path toward effectively implementing optimization algorithms on power-constrained autonomous and semi-autonomous systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

HERMES: A cyber-energy SAAS platform to provide real-time 2d and 3d interactive visualizations [SWR-23-15]

HERMES is a novel visualization SAAS platform for achieving real-time visualization of large-scale environments involving cyber-energy devices. The platform receives data from emulated environments which include physical hardware and network devices that represent a complex IT / OT system. The platform is capable of streaming, filtering, storing, and visualizing all data within the environment and scaling vertically and horizontally. This capability enables high fidelity visual analysis of events to be performed in real time as well as the collection and storage of historical data for forensic analysis.

Van Natta, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2021

An introduction to neuromorphic computing and its potential impact for unattended ground sensors

Neuromorphic computers are hardware systems that mimic the brain’s computational process phenomenology. This is in contrast to neural network accelerators, such as the Google TPU or the Intel Neural Compute Stick, which seek to accelerate the fundamental computation and data flows of neural network models used in the field of machine learning. Neuromorphic computers emulate the integrate and fire neuron dynamics of the brain to achieve a spiking communication architecture for computation. While neural networks are brain-inspired, they drastically oversimplify the brain’s computation model. Neuromorphic architectures are closer to the true computation model of the brain (albeit, still simplified). Neuromorphic computing models herald a 1000x power improvement over conventional CPU architectures. Sandia National Labs is a major contributor to the research community on neuromorphic systems by performing design analysis, evaluation, and algorithm development for neuromorphic computers. Space-based remote sensing development has been a focused target of funding for exploratory research into neuromorphic systems for their potential advantage in that program area; SNL has led some of these efforts. Recently, neuromorphic application evaluation has reached the NA-22 program area. This same exploratory research and algorithm development should penetrate the unattended ground sensor space for SNL’s mission partners and program areas. Neuromorphic computing paradigms offer a distinct advantage for the SWaP-constrained embedded systems of our diverse sponsor-driven program areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at the Exascale

Domain science applications and workflow processes are currently forced to view the network as an opaque infrastructure into which they inject data and hope that it emerges at the destination with an acceptable Quality of Experience. There is little ability for applications to interact with the network to exchange information, negotiate performance parameters, discover expected performance metrics, or receive status/troubleshooting information in real time. The work we presen here is motivated by a vision for a new smart network and smart application ecosystem that will provide a more deterministic and interactive environment for domain science workflows. The Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at Exascale (SENSE) system includes a model-based architecture, implementation, and deployment which enables automated end-to-end network service instantiation across administrative domains. An intent based interface allows applications to express their high-level service requirements, an intelligent orchestrator and resource control systems allow for custom tailoring of scalability and real-time responsiveness based on individual application and infrastructure operator requirements. This allows the science applications to manage the network as a first-class schedulable resource as is the current practice for instruments, compute, and storage systems. Deployment and experiments on production networks and testbeds have validated SENSE functions and performance. Emulation based testing verified the scalability needed to support research and education infrastructures. Key contributions of this work include an architecture definition, reference implementation, and deployment. This provides the basis for further innovation of smart network services to accelerate scientific discovery in the era of big data, cloud computing, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Software-defined network for end-to-end networked science at the exascale

Domain science applications and workflow processes are currently forced to view the network as an opaque infrastructure into which they inject data and hope that it emerges at the destination with an acceptable Quality of Experience. There is little ability for applications to interact with the network to exchange information, negotiate performance parameters, discover expected performance metrics, or receive status/troubleshooting information in real time. The work presented here is motivated by a vision for a new smart network and smart application ecosystem that will provide a more deterministic and interactive environment for domain science workflows. The Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at Exascale (SENSE) system includes a model-based architecture, implementation, and deployment which enables automated end- to-end network service instantiation across administrative domains. An intent based interface allows applications to express their high-level service requirements, an intelligent orchestrator and resource control systems allow for custom tailoring of scalability and real-time responsiveness based on individual application and infrastructure operator requirements. This allows the science applications to manage the network as a first-class schedulable resource as is the current practice for instruments, compute, and storage systems. Deployment and experiments on production networks and testbeds have validated SENSE functions and performance. Emulation based testing verified the scalability needed to support research and education infrastructures. Key contributions of this work include an architecture definition, reference implementation, and deployment. This provides the basis for further innovation of smart network services to accelerate scientific discovery in the era of big data, cloud computing, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Hardware Platform for Studying Naval Power Electronic Power Distribution Systems

Abstract – Future intelligent ship system designs will likely include electric propulsion, numerous highpower sensors, and directed energy weapons. Supply and control of these large nonlinear loads will require a networked, multi-converter power electronic power distribution system. This work presents a hardware platform to emulate a microgrid power system with multiple power converters and a power data communication network. The platform is reconfigurable and can include both AC and DC power distribution zones, representative of shipboard power systems. It also allows for the study of both power control actuation and power data communication delays. Since the platform is based on electric power hardware, spatial and temporal uncertainties are inherently embedded in the system. Specifically, this work examines the control actuation of multiple pulsed power loads in a single microgrid. Several pulse load levels and operating scenarios have been implemented and measured. A framework for control parameter quantification is presented, and various metrics are explored to capture pulse signal characteristics. The sensitivity of pulse load metric parameters is analyzed. Dynamic shipboard, mission-specific load profiles coupled with pulse loads can also be emulated in the hardware platform.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calibration and field deployment of low-cost sensor network to monitor underground pipeline leakage

Recent technological advances in methane detection have improved leak detection and repair. However, current methods to reliably measure methane concentrations rely on expensive instruments or demand significant labor input. There is interest in using affordable methane sensors that are responsive to ppmv level changes in methane concentrations in both urban and rural environments for monitoring underground natural gas pipeline leaks. This is especially relevant for situations where potentially significant leaks cannot be repaired immediately or smaller leaks that require long-term monitoring and further evaluation. In this work, a low-cost sensor unit, equipped with a metal oxide sensor, was designed, built, and calibrated over a wide range of methane concentrations and environmental conditions in preparation for field application. A network of these sensors was then installed at the test site and used to measure methane concentrations at ground level above known sub-surface natural gas emissions which emulated underground gas pipeline leaks. This low-cost sensor network measured over 4 days total for the two different known leakage rates. Results demonstrate that the sensors can continuously measure relative methane variability for extended periods but require calibration for a wide range of temperature and humidity conditions to properly determine absolute gas (i.e., methane) concentrations. Furthermore, when a regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the effects of meteorological parameters on methane concentration, air temperature and wind speed have strong impacts on the concentration. Overall, the network approach allows improved identification of leak location and monitoring of underground natural gas leaks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗

DOE OSTI2022

Woven ceramic matrix composite surrogate model based on physics-informed recurrent neural network

A recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear constitutive behavior of woven ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage at multiple length scales. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the multiscale generalized method of cells (MSGMC) approach coupled with a matrix damage model. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of woven CMCs based on constituent response at the micro-, meso-, and macroscales. The multiscale repeating unit cell is loaded under non-monotonic conditions including multiple load / unload cycles and tension / compression. The fiber volume fraction as well as the intra- and intertow void volume fractions are also varied in the generation of training data. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input strain sequence and fiber and void volume fractions, the resulting stress versus strain response while satisfying physical constraints such as positive semi-definiteness of the tangent stiffness matrix and linear elastic unloading. Further, the trained surrogate model effectively matches the stress versus strain response and successfully predicts the tangent modulus throughout the loading regime. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex architectures, nonlinear multiaxial material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Operation of PV Sources in DC Grids for Improving Technical, Economical, and Environmental Conditions by Using Vortex Search Algorithm and a Matrix Hourly Power Flow

This document presents a master–slave methodology for solving the problem of optimal operation of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generators (DGs) in direct current (DC) networks. This problem was modeled using a nonlinear programming model (NLP) that considers the minimization of three different objective functions in a daily operation of the system. The first one corresponds to the minimization of the total operational cost of the system, including the energy purchasing cost to the conventional generators and maintenance costs of the PV sources; the second objective function corresponds to the reduction of the energy losses associated with the transport of energy in the network, and the third objective function is related to the minimization of the total emissions of CO2 by the conventional generators installed on the DC grid. The minimization of these objective functions is achieved by using a master–slave optimization approach through the application of the Vortex Search algorithm combined with a matrix hourly power flow. To evaluate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach, two test scenarios were used, which correspond to a grid-connected and a standalone network located in two different regions of Colombia. The grid-connected system emulates the behavior of the solar resource and power demand of the city of Medellín-Antioquia, and the standalone network corresponds to an adaptation of the generation and demand curves for the municipality of Capurganá-Choco. A numerical comparison was performed with four optimization methodologies reported in the literature: particle swarm optimization, multiverse optimizer, crow search algorithm, and salp swarm algorithm. The results obtained demonstrate that the proposed optimization approach achieved excellent solutions in terms of response quality, repeatability, and processing times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a real-time computation of timelike hadronic vacuum polarization and light-by-light scattering: Schwinger Model tests

Hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) and light-by-light scattering (HLBL) are crucial for evaluating the Standard Model predictions concerning the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment. However, direct first-principle lattice gauge theory-based calculations of these observables in the timelike region remain challenging. Discrepancies persist between lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) calculations in the spacelike region and dispersive approaches relying on experimental data parametrization from the timelike region. Here, we introduce a methodology employing 1+1-dimensional quantum electrodynamics (QED), i.e. the Schwinger Model, to investigate the HVP and HLBL. To that end, we use both tensor network techniques, specifically matrix product states, and classical emulators of digital quantum computers. Demonstrating feasibility in a simplified model, our approach sets the stage for future endeavors leveraging digital quantum computers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modelling populations of kilonovae

Abstract The 2017 detection of a kilonova coincident with gravitational-wave emission has identified neutron star mergers as the major source of the heaviest elements and dramatically constrained alternative theories of gravity. Observing a population of such sources has the potential to transform cosmology, nuclear physics, and astrophysics. However, with only one confident multi-messenger detection currently available, modelling the diversity of signals expected from such a population requires improved theoretical understanding. In particular, models that are quick to evaluate and are calibrated with more detailed multi-physics simulations are needed to design observational strategies for kilonovae detection and to obtain rapid-response interpretations of new observations. We use grey-opacity models to construct populations of kilonovae, spanning ejecta parameters predicted by numerical simulations. Our modelling focuses on wavelengths relevant for upcoming optical surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In these simulations, we implement heating rates that are based on nuclear reaction network calculations. We create a Gaussian-process emulator for kilonova grey opacities, calibrated with detailed radiative transfer simulations. Using recent fits to numerical relativity simulations, we predict how the ejecta parameters from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers shape the population of kilonovae, accounting for the viewing-angle dependence. Our simulated population of BNS mergers produce peak i-band absolute magnitudes of −20 ≤ Mi ≤ −11. A comparison with detailed radiative transfer calculations indicates that further improvements are needed to accurately reproduce spectral shapes over the full light curve evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mobiliti v1.0

Mobiliti is a software platform designed to emulate the dynamics of a regional transportation road network. It is built on open-source software that provides parallel discrete-event simulation. The software is transformative in the area of transportation network simulation because of the geospatial scale and fidelity of the network model and the computational time it takes to model a full day of travel demand. For example, it runs a simulation of the entire San Francisco Bay Area, with a network model of ~1M links and a population that completes ~19M trips in ~5 minutes. This scale of simulation has not been attempted with existing simulation models due to the complexity of the model and the computational time it would take to complete. The intent of the software is to create a digital twin capability for cities to evaluate consequences of infrastructure or policy changes on road network dynamics.

Macfarlane, Jane↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyberwheel

Cyberwheel is a high fidelity training environment for autonomous cyber defense agents that includes both simulation and emulation capabilities. Cyberwheel simplifies customization of the training network and easily allows redefining the agent’s reward function, observation space, and action space to support rapid experimentation of novel approaches to agent design. It also provides visibility into agent behaviors necessary for agent evaluation and sufficient documentation and examples to lower the barrier to entry.

Oesch, TimothySean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Review of Design Elements within Power Infrastructure Cyber–Physical Test Beds as Threat Analysis Environments

Cyber–physical systems (CPSs) are an integral part of modern society; thus, enhancing these systems’ reliability and resilience is paramount. Cyber–physical testbeds (CPTs) are a safe way to test and explore the interplay between the cyber and physical domains and to cost-effectively enhance the reliability and resilience of CPSs. Here a review of CPT elements, broken down into physical components (simulators, emulators, and physical hardware), soft components (communication protocols, network timing protocols), and user interfaces (visualization-dashboard design considerations) is presented. Various methods used to validate CPS performance are reviewed and evaluated for potential applications in CPT performance validation. Last, initial simulated results for a CPT design, based on the IEEE 33 bus system, are presented, along with a brief discussion on how model-based testing and fault–injection-based testing (using scaling and ramp-type attacks) may be used to help validate CPT performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Networked Microgrid Framework and Testbed for Communication, Controls, and Optimization Testing

This paper presents the development and experimental results of a networked AC microgrid testbed located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The testbed comprises two, 480V three-phase, four wire microgrids designed to operate standalone, grid-tied, or as a network of microgrids. This testbed represents both the state of the industry, by incorporating grid-assets commonly found in real microgrids, and the state of the art, as it is a platform to evaluate advanced controllers. The main elements of this networked microgrid testbed are presented in this paper including a Scenario Manager, local microgrid controls, and a networked microgrid control. The Scenario Manager has the objective of emulating real-world conditions. The local microgrid controller oversees standalone, grid-tied, or islanded operation. The microgrid control is a higher-level control that coordinates interaction between islanded microgrids. This paper delves into these controllers and validates their operation in the networked microgrid testbed showcasing the operational flexibility and advance control capabilities.

Ferrari Maglia, Max↗