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At least 109 records · Page 6

Single-shot switching in Tb/Co-multilayer based nanoscale magnetic tunnel junctions

Magnetic tunnel junctions (MTJs) are elementary units of magnetic memory devices. For high-speed and low-power data storage and processing applications, fast reversal of the magnetization by an ultrashort laser pulse is extremely important. Here we demonstrate single-shot switching of Tb/Co-multilayer based nanoscale MTJs by combining the optical writing and the electrical read-out methods. A 90-fs-long laser pulse switches the magnetization of the storage layer (SL). The change in the tunneling magnetoresistance (TMR) between the SL and a reference layer (RL) is probed electrically across the oxide barrier. Single-shot switching is demonstrated by varying the cell diameter from 300 nm to 20 nm. The anisotropy, magnetostatic coupling, and switching probability exhibit cell-size dependence. By suitable association of laser fluence and magnetic field, successive commutation between high-resistance and low-resistance states is achieved. The nature of the magnetization reversal of both SL and RL in a continuous film is probed with a depth-resolved magneto-optical Kerr effect (MOKE) magnetometry. The ultrafast dynamics in the continuous full-MTJ stack is investigated with the time-resolved pump–probe technique. Our experimental findings provide strong support for the growing interest in ultrafast spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Anomalous Hall effect in conical helimagnetic crystals

Spin-spiral texture can substantially change charge transport properties in helimagnets. Here we find the anomalous Hall effect (AHE) exhibiting the dramatic behavior with respect to chemical potential μ in conical magnetic structures. The direct conductivity demonstrates kinks, and the anomalous Hall current exhibits minima and maxima changing the sign. We analytically derive the expression for energy bands and eigenstates in the most general case. Because of the conical potential, the energy bands are split into two nonparabolic bands where the lower band can have one- or two-minima shapes in the k z direction ($\hat{z}$ is a direction of the spiral axis). We prove that the origin of the anomalous Hall effect is not topological and is due to the interplay between the asymmetry of energy bands in the x and z directions and spin restrictions in the phase space due to the conical potential. We also investigate the dependence of transport properties on cone half- angle θ, and find that the effects are most pronounced at θ=π/2 (a helical state). Electric current is calculated using the Boltzmann equation where the relaxation is caused by electron-acoustic phonon interaction. The transition probability is found to be a 2×2 matrix with nonvanishing off-diagonal elements indicating the strong interband transitions. The origin of interband transitions is because of the nature of the conical potential where conduction electron spins interact with localized magnetic moments. To verify the proposed theory, we calculate the temperature dependence of resistivity for MnSi crystals and find the discontinuity at the phase transition between conical and paramagnetic phases. The calculations are in the excellent agreement with the experimental data. In addition, we predict the discontinuity behavior for the anomalous Hall resistivity at the phase transition where the resistivity exhibits the abrupt change at T=T C , (a) to zero if the relativistic effects for the conduction electrons are small or (b) to a nonzero value if Rashba/Dresselhaus effects are taken into account.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Accelerated 133 Xe Quantification in Samples Containing Significant 133 mXe

The quantification of 133 Xe in the presence of its mother radionuclide 133 mXe requires the full quantification of both to perform the ingrowth correction for 133 Xe. Due to the nature of both of these radionuclides, the 133 mXe requires significantly more time to quantify by High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors due to lower production yields, lower gamma emission probabilities, and lower detection efficiencies. This work shows that 133 Xe and 133 mXe quantification can be accelerated by measuring the 133m:133 activity ratio for a large batch of material and applying this activity ratio to assays of lower activity subsamples of the same batch of material. Included in this report are derivations of the required decay correction equations, and experiments using actual samples to validate the performance of these equations. A detector calibration method is also shown that leverages this method as an alternative to existing calibration methods for 133 mXe quantification.

133mXe↗

Natural Hazard Forecast Alert Grid Risk System

Weather events cause most power outages. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Idaho National Laboratory had a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response program to develop a grid alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios using MASTERRI (Modeling And Simulation for Targeted Reliability and Resilience Improvement). For high-risk events, the application can then send alert links to subscribed electric distribution utility operations staff to allow them to see and evaluate the scenarios and the impact in a web based interactive map tool. This proof of concept application used data from utilities and organizations, such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which have complied historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid. Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates were calculated for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures were correlated with historic weather events from the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System. These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. Working with an industry collaborator, actual grid models and data were used for demonstration cases. This report outlines the work performed for this project.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seawater sea-sand engineered/strain-hardening cementitious composites (ECC/SHCC): Assessment and modeling of crack characteristics

Highlights: • A probabilistic model was proposed to model the crack width evolution of SS-ECC at different strain levels. • The Weibull distribution fit the crack width distribution better than the log-normal distribution. • A 5-D representation was proposed to assess the SS-ECC by considering both cracking and mechanical performance. • Larger sea-sand size and lower fiber dosage led to larger crack widths in SS-ECC under the same tensile strain. • 18-mm PE fiber led to larger crack widths in SS-ECC at strain >2%, due to a large fraction of fiber rupture. Seawater sea-sand Engineered Cementitious Composites (SS-ECC) is a new version of ECC for marine constructions facing the scarcity of freshwater and river/manufactured sand. This study aims to assess and model the crack characteristics of SS-ECC, which are critical for its applications with non-corrosive reinforcements. The influence of sea-sand size, fiber length and fiber dosage on the crack characteristics of SS-ECC was explored. A five-dimensional representation was proposed to assess the overall performance of SS-ECC, by comprehensively considering both the crack characteristics (i.e., crack width and its variation) and the mechanical properties (i.e., compressive and tensile properties). A probabilistic model was also proposed to describe the stochastic nature and evolution of crack width, and it can be used to estimate the critical tensile strain on SS-ECC for a given crack-width limit and cumulative probability. The findings and proposed methods can facilitate the design of SS-ECC in marine and coastal structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The principle of minimal power

This article is devoted to the memory of Yuri P Raizer, who passed away in 2021. He left a noticeable trace in gas discharge physics. The principle of minimal power (the state that requires minimal power is most probable) is thoroughly used in his books. Although the fundamental laws of physics do not imply this ad hoc principle, a detailed analysis of underlying phenomena can often reveal why nature prefers this path. Raizer illustrated this principle for plasma stratification, formation of electrode spots, discharge constriction, the shape of an arc channel, etc. We argue that the nonlinearity of equations describing gas discharges can often justify the realization of a plasma state maintained at minimal electric power. This nonlinearity appears because small groups of energetic electrons often control the ionization processes. The number of these electrons depends strongly on the ratio of the electric field to gas density, E/N. Under certain conditions, the ionization rate can also depend nonlinearly on electron density due to stepwise ionization and Coulomb collisions. Here, we use the principle of minimal power to illustrate some of Raizer's contributions to gas discharge physics from a single point of view. We demonstrate that nonlinearity of ionization processes in gas discharges can substantiate this principle for plasma stratification. However, striations of s, p, and r types in neon could exist with minimal or no ionization enhancement. This reminds us of Raizer's warning that applying the minimal power principle could lead to erroneous predictions, and a proper theory is required in each case to justify its use. 'The phenomenon of striations satisfies the principle of minimal power' – Yuri Raizer

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Compressor Station Differential Risk Assessment for Hydrogen and Natural Gas Blends

Blending hydrogen into existing natural gas pipelines is a current initiative for large-scale hydrogen deployment in the United States. Understanding changes in hazards and risk for fuel blends can help inform regulations. A differential risk assessment was conducted to understand how the safety profile of fires and unignited flammable plumes of leaking fuel would change based on blend composition. The area affected by harmful heat fluxes from jet fires was found to be larger for blends with more natural gas in them, while the distance affected by unignited flammable fuel concentrations was found to be larger for blends with more hydrogen in them. Component leak frequencies and ignition probabilities greatly impact both heat flux risk and the flammable plume risk. The collection of additional blend-specific industry data could help understand which assumptions are most valid to make when calculating risk.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Markovian transport processes in a heterogeneous, variably saturated watershed: A multi-domain spatial Markov model

Transport processes in watersheds remain challenging to describe accurately with upscaled models because of their intricate complexities at multiple scales that can lead to multi-modal, non-Fickian breakthrough curves. One of the recent advances in solute transport modeling has been the Lagrangian spatial Markov model (SMM), which describes transport using velocity increments and models the correlated transitions between them. The method has been applied previously to saturated porous media and fractured media, but these successful applications suggest it may be useful for describing watershed scale processes as well. An existing, 3-D, heterogeneous variably saturated model of a headwaters catchment and classical random walk particle tracking were used to generate a forward simulation and the resulting transport was analyzed with a spatial Markov framework. Existing SMM methods were used to analyze the transport paths through the complex, unconfined domain and we found that the vadose zone plays an important role in the correlation structure. As such, a new kind of SMM is proposed, termed a multi-domain SMM (MD-SMM), that uses separate correlation models for auto-transitions in the vadose zone and the saturated zone, and for the cross-transitions between them. The MD-SMM improves representation of transport relative to the single domain model and can naturally delineate times when a particle is in the vadose zone or the saturated zone, adding an additional degree of realism to the upscaled model. Lastly, we show that the transition probability matrix for transport in the saturated portion of this unconfined system is approximately Markovian, which is an important validation of the proposed framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Techno-economic analysis of advanced small modular nuclear reactors

Here, small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) represent a robust opportunity to develop low-carbon and reliable power with the potential to meet cost parity with conventional power systems. This study presents a detailed, bottom-up economic evaluation of a 12 × 77 MW e (924 MW e total) light-water SMR (LW-SMR) plant, a 4 × 262 MW e (1,048 MW e ) gas-cooled SMR (GC-SMR) plant, and a 5 × 200 MW e (1,000 MW e total) molten salt SMR (MS-SMR) plant. Cost estimates are derived from equipment costs, labor hours, material inputs, and process-engineering models. The advanced SMRs are compared to natural gas combined cycle plants with and without post-combustion carbon capture and a conventional large nuclear reactor. Overnight capital cost (OCC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates are developed. The OCC of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$4,844$/kW, $\$4,355$/kW, and $\$3,985$/kW respectively. The LCOE of the LW-SMR, GC-SMR, and MS-SMR are found to be $\$89.6$/MWh, $\$81.5$/MWh, and $\$80.6$/MWh respectively. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed, for which the OCC and construction time of the LW-SMR is found to have a lower mean and standard deviation than a conventional large reactor. The LW-SMR OCC is found to have a mean of $\$5,233$/kW with a standard deviation of $\$658$/kW and a 90 % probability of remaining between $\$4,254$/kW and $\$6,399$/kW, while the construction duration is found to have a mean of 4.5 years with a standard deviation of 0.8 years and a 90 % probability of remaining between 3.4 and 6.0 years. The economic impact of economies of scale, simplification, modularization, and construction time for SMRs are discussed. Additionally, policy implications for direct SMR capital subsidies and the impact of a carbon tax on natural gas emissions are explored.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling to Simulate a Combined Reforming Process for Syngas and Hydrogen Production

An Oxygen Transport Membrane (OTM) combined reforming technology for producing syngas and hydrogen integrates the advantages of multiple processes—steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), an air separation unit (ASU)—into a single integrated technology. The OTM consists of a primary reforming tube, in which desulfurized natural gas is partially reformed by steam at high pressure in the presence of a metal catalyst. This process is followed in series by a ceramic OTM with a secondary reformer, in which residual methane reforms and O 2 - ions react with a portion of the CO and H 2 fuel to provide the heat to support both primary and secondary reforming. Although the OTM combined reformer technology for syngas and H 2 production has been substantially developed in the last decade, several challenges that affect the overall production efficiency and reliability are yet to be fully understood, addressed, and resolved. Therefore, developing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models that incorporate fluid dynamics, mass transport, kinetics, heat transport, and structural mechanics is critical to understanding and minimizing the probability of tube failures during the startup and operation. In this report, an exhaustive literature review was performed to survey the current state of technology for producing syngas and H 2 using either conventional or renewable energy sources. The feedstocks reviewed include natural gas and coal for the conventional technologies, whereas biomass, solar, wind, and nuclear energy for the renewable technologies. The existing industry-grade COMSOL multiphysics models of OTM were upgraded for the latest software release. In addition, they were improved to help achieve grid and solver independence and were successfully ported on the ORNL high-performance computing clusters to speed up their run times. A 42% reduction in the simulation run time was achieved. A new higher-fidelity CFD model of an OTM tube was developed in the StarCCM+ simulation platform. This new model was designed to simulate various physics using first principles, e.g., turbulent flow, heat transfer, and chemical reactions while avoiding unnecessary simplifications. The resulting predictions were qualitatively assessed and provided useful insights into the multiphysics complexity of an OTM tube.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quantum Choreography of the Nucleus: Rotations, Vibrations, and Emergent Structure

Abstract Nuclei are complex many-body quantum systems where interactions of the neutrons and protons via the strong, the weak, and the electromagnetic forces lead to the emergence of simple patterns of energy states that have been described by various theoretical approaches. One of the goals of all the theoretical models is the development of a universal theory that can be applied across the entire chart of nuclides. Significant progress has been made by experiments as well as the increasing sophistication of models, but a universal theory has yet to be established. A recent review of nuclei in the Z = 50–82 region of the chart of nuclides has analyzed all the available compiled data from several decades of studies towards a clarification of the low-lying structure of nuclei. Other reviews have reported and explained the emergence of multiple different shapes in nuclei at somewhat higher excitation energies than the ground state. Some have challenged the interpretation of the first excited K π = 0 + band as a vibration of ground state. This work attempts to provide a guide to determining the nature of the first excited K π = 0 + band in nuclei by the combined use of nuclear lifetimes, energy level evolutions, dynamic moments of inertia, and intrinsic quadrupole moments extracted from transition probabilities. The result is that for a subset of the nuclei in this region, the K π = 0 + band is consistent with the traditional 𝛽-vibration description of an oscillation built on the ground state.

CHFB+5DCH↗

A Tool for the Risk-Informed Management of Critical Mission Resilience

We describe a methodology and tool for the risk-informed management and planning of mission resilience. By mapping concepts of resilience onto the elements of a streamlined risk model we are able to tap the substantial portfolio of established risk concepts to provide rapid insights in the evaluation and high-level screening of prospective resilience enhancement measures. This provides a risk-informed, levelized basis for the comparison of disparate resilience solutions and the means of establishing preferences. The methodology begins with identification of critical missions met by a site, and establishment of the supporting physical assets. Scenarios that would result in failure of these assets are systematically identified. Each scenario comprises three elements: realization of a hazard or threat resulting in loss of resources (the current focus being on power, natural gas, and water) to the asset, failure of measures in place to protect the asset against those losses, and realization of the consequent impacts. These scenarios are quantified in terms of their probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of the resultant consequences (mission outage time), allowing risk-prioritization to focus resilience enhancement considerations. What-If? analyses are conducted through adjusting elements of the risk calculation to reflect the deployment of prospective resilience measures, by which means the efficacies of each of those measures can be compared using common risk metrics across diverse resilience strategies. This paper will also describe the insights from example applications.

resilience, risk, risk assesment, energy, water↗

New high-sensitivity searches for neutrons converting into antineutrons and/or sterile neutrons at the HIBEAM/NNBAR experiment at the European Spallation Source

The violation of baryon number, , is an essential ingredient for the preferential creation of matter over antimatter needed to account for the observed baryon asymmetry in the Universe. However, such a process has yet to be experimentally observed. The HIBEAM/NNBAR program is a proposed two-stage experiment at the European Spallation Source to search for baryon number violation. The program will include high-sensitivity searches for processes that violate baryon number by one or two units: free neutron–antineutron oscillation () via mixing, neutron–antineutron oscillation via regeneration from a sterile neutron state (), and neutron disappearance (n → n′); the effective process of neutron regeneration () is also possible. The program can be used to discover and characterize mixing in the neutron, antineutron and sterile neutron sectors. The experiment addresses topical open questions such as the origins of baryogenesis and the nature of dark matter, and is sensitive to scales of new physics substantially in excess of those available at colliders. A goal of the program is to open a discovery window to neutron conversion probabilities (sensitivities) by up to three orders of magnitude compared with previous searches. The opportunity to make such a leap in sensitivity tests should not be squandered. The experiment pulls together a diverse international team of physicists from the particle (collider and low energy) and nuclear physics communities, while also including specialists in neutronics and magnetics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard to decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. CCUS involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial processes or power generation and utilizing it for other purposes, such as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or storing the captured CO 2 underground. CCUS technology can reduce the environmental impact of continued fossil fuel use while smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy. CCUS can create new economic opportunities, such as the development of new industries and job creation, and can enhance energy security by diversifying energy sources. For these reasons, enabling CCUS has become a key objective of the Biden-Harris administration’s clean energy policy and has received bipartisan support. Despite its environmental and economic potential, CCUS faces multiple barriers to widespread deployment. One of the main challenges is the high cost and technical difficulty of implementing and operating large-scale CCUS infrastructure. CCUS remains a relatively expensive way to reduce carbon emissions (e.g., compared to solar photovoltaic technology’s displacement of coal generation). Additionally, financial incentives and supportive policies like those enacted to support solar photovoltaic development, especially at the state level, are inconsistent or nonexistent, which can discourage investment in CCUS projects. There are also technical challenges associated with safe and secure underground CO 2 storage and the development of new carbon utilization technologies. Public opposition to various aspects of CCUS technologies, ranging from concerns that CCUS will extend reliance on fossil fuels to CCUS infrastructure being sited in disadvantaged communities, is a growing challenge. This paper focuses on another significant barrier to broad CCUS deployment: the need for considerable expansion of the dedicated land-based CO 2 pipeline network in the United States to meet CCUS goals and the unique regulatory challenges to its development. To reach carbon emissions targets in the United States by 2050, CCUS technology will need to be supported by tens of thousands of miles of CO 2 pipelines. Estimates range from a minimum of roughly 29,000 pipeline miles (according to a 2020 Great Plains Institute study) to 66,000 pipeline miles (as per a 2021 Princeton University–led study). As of October 2022, however, the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) reports fewer than 5,400 miles of U.S. pipelines carrying CO 2 . This deficit—and what it means for the prospect of moving substantially larger quantities of CO 2 from source to use or storage—threatens to stifle the development of CCUS projects and technologies identified as an important tool to meet emissions targets. The current regulatory landscape facing CO 2 pipeline development can best be described as uncertain. At the federal level, the U.S. DOT Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) oversees safety regulation of pipelines transporting hazardous materials, including CO 2 upon commencement of operation. However, PHMSA’s definition of CO 2 as “a fluid consisting of more than 90 percent CO 2 molecules compressed to a supercritical state” has not been updated since its 1991 addition to the Federal Register. Because CO 2 can be transported in a gaseous, liquid, or supercritical state (indeed, the physical state of CO 2 can fluctuate within a single pipeline due to environmental changes), doubts persist about the extent of PHMSA’s purview—and raise questions about what, if anything, states should do to address this apparent gap. PHMSA has begun a major revision of its existing rules, but the agency does not expect a first draft before 2024. Economic oversight of CO 2 pipelines is even less clear. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)—which regulate the rates of interstate oil/natural gas and non-energy pipelines, respectively—have both declined jurisdiction over interstate CO 2 pipelines. This presumably leaves economic regulation to state and/or local governments, but few if any states have the laws or resources in place to oversee just and reasonable rates. Further, the interstate nature of CO 2 pipeline development creates questions around how different states should align their rate-making decisions. Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation Currently, regulatory responsibilities regarding CO 2 pipeline siting and permitting fall to state and local governments. The variety of laws and regulations across the country, however, creates a maze of requirements for pipeline developers to navigate. To secure necessary permits, most states require pipeline companies to be “common carriers” that provide transport service to the public at uniform rates. However, the specific definition of that term varies. Some states require clear evidence that a pipeline services the public, while others automatically deem any pipeline company transporting energy products or hazardous materials to be a “common carrier”—with little consideration for accessibility to third parties. Other states have eschewed common-carrier terminology entirely, placing private and publicly accessible pipelines on equal footing. Much like the variation in common-carrier requirements, laws governing eminent domain authority to secure rights-of-way (ROW) to commence construction on a planned pipeline route differ by state. Several states have no laws or rules governing CO 2 pipelines. In addition to creating questions about whether long-standing rules for other pipelines (e.g., natural gas or petroleum products) apply to CO 2 , this policy vacuum leaves local governments as the sole authority over sections of pipe within their boundaries. With dozens of counties along a given route, the probability of inconsistent regulation of the same pipeline is significant. Even in states with CO 2 pipeline laws in place, local regulatory attempts to address rising concerns over pipeline routing and safety have triggered lawsuits by pipeline companies seeking to delimit areas of federal, state, and local government responsibility. Meanwhile, legislators across the country have introduced bills to restrict the application of eminent domain to CO 2 pipeline projects, which could threaten a key means of securing ROW that companies cannot secure through negotiation with landowners. Taken separately, any of these regulatory issues—the narrow federal definition of CO 2 , FERC’s and STB’s decisions that CO 2 pipelines are not within their jurisdiction, and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws regulating CO 2 pipeline technologies—are extremely difficult to resolve. Adding the required scale of CO 2 pipeline expansion and the currently identified narrow window of time in which to reach climate target goals, the task becomes even more difficult—and raises a host of urgent questions for regulators. How should CO 2 be defined in federal regulations to ensure consistent safety standards across the country? What is the potential impact radius of a CO 2 pipeline rupture, and how should that inform local emergency response? In the absence of centralized federal oversight, what should state legislatures do to increase alignment for interstate CO 2 pipeline projects? This paper intends to serve as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗