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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Availability of state-level climate change projection resources for use in site-level risk assessment

In recent years, incorporating climate change considerations has become an important focus of organizations’ resilience planning and risk assessment efforts, including United States federal agencies. This has led to an increasing demand for higher-resolution and higher-quality climate projection information that is easy to understand for non-expert users. In particular, there is a demand for information about how climate change may affect high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) hazards that are central to risk assessments focused on infrastructure. While national-level resources like the National Climate Assessment provide information on climate impacts for different sectors and regions in the United States, downscaled information with location-specific context is often required for site-level resilience planning. As higher-resolution and higher-quality climate resources continue to be developed at the state level, it is imperative to understand ongoing and planned efforts, as well as key drivers for developing these state-level resources. Based primarily on stakeholder input from climate experts from 31 states, we identify key state-level climate resources, as well as drivers accelerating the development of these resources. We assess the availability of climate change resources, specifically those with information about HILF events that have been developed at the state level and can support users in conducting site-level resilience planning. We identify three key drivers or predictors for the development of climate change resources at the state level: (1) existence of state laws, mandates, Executive Orders, and other state policies, (2) existence of university partnerships; and (3) the makeup of the stakeholder groups (in terms of dominant discipline/expertise) participating in the effort. The diverse state strategies and resources surveyed in this study could support the incorporation of higher-resolution climate information into site-level planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear

Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km) can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence wind shear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of the Distribution of the In Situ Ring Current Density Based on Magnetic Field Observations From THEMIS, MMS and Cluster

Abstract We review and extend previous work on the ring current density distribution by applying the curlometer technique to multi‐spacecraft magnetic field data on different spatial scales, directly comparing the results of three space missions: Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS), The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Cluster, that have so far accrued decades of data on a range of spatial separation scales. We suggest that the statistical results of Cluster data over two decades can illustrate well the overall form of the ring current (in the ring plane), but can underestimate the current density, while THEMIS (partially) and MMS are able to observe the detailed structure of the ring current and indeed show different behavior on some (smaller) spatial scales. These results suggest that, in addition to the local time and radial form, reported previously, the morphology of the ring current may also depend on magnetic latitude, as influenced by the tilt angle between the inner and outer magnetic fields.

Tan, X. [School of Space and Earth Sciences Beihan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity

Abstract Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dislocation interactions in olivine control postseismic creep of the upper mantle

Changes in stress applied to mantle rocks, such as those imposed by earthquakes, commonly induce a period of transient creep, which is often modelled based on stress transfer among slip systems due to grain interactions. However, recent experiments have demonstrated that the accumulation of stresses among dislocations is the dominant cause of strain hardening in olivine at temperatures ≤600 °C, raising the question of whether the same process contributes to transient creep at higher temperatures. Here, we demonstrate that olivine samples deformed at 25 °C or 1150–1250 °C both preserve stress heterogeneities of ~1 GPa that are imparted by dislocations and have correlation lengths of ~1 μm. The similar stress distributions formed at these different temperatures indicate that accumulation of stresses among dislocations also provides a contribution to transient creep at high temperatures. The results motivate a new generation of models that capture these intragranular processes and may refine predictions of evolving mantle viscosity over the earthquake cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming

Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition “scrambling” experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Creep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering

Earthquakes occur in clusters or sequences that arise from complex triggering mechanisms, but direct measurement of the slow subsurface slip responsible for delayed triggering is rarely possible. We investigate the origins of complexity and its relationship to heterogeneity using an experimental fault with two dominant seismic asperities. The fault is composed of quartz powder, a material common to natural faults, sandwiched between 760 mm long polymer blocks that deform the way 10 meters of rock would behave. We observe periodic repeating earthquakes that transition into aperiodic and complex sequences of fast and slow events. Neighboring earthquakes communicate via migrating slow slip, which resembles creep fronts observed in numerical simulations and on tectonic faults. Utilizing both local stress measurements and numerical simulations, we observe that the speed and strength of creep fronts are highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes, and may serve as on-fault stress meters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spontaneous crack healing in calcite reveals the influence of dynamic strain evolution and surface chemistry

The mechanics of fracture healing in calcite remain poorly constrained yet are fundamental to managing fluid transport in geothermal reservoirs and hydrocarbon systems. Here, we apply microfocused synchrotron Laue X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy to investigate subcritical crack healing in a 1 mm-thick calcite crystal subjected to controlled loading in a double-torsion device. Over a 44-hour period following load removal, we map the evolution of residual strain fields surrounding the crack tip and observe a progressive increase in compressive strain perpendicular to the crack plane accompanied by infrared spectroscopic signatures that reveal enhanced accumulation of water at the healed interface. The correlation between strain evolution and surface chemistry suggests that spontaneous crack healing in calcite is driven by dynamic anelastic relaxation coupled with irreversible fluid-mineral interactions. These findings offer insight into time-dependent crack closure processes in carbonates and highlight the role of chemically-mediated plasticity in subsurface fracture evolution.

materials science↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fire effects on the persistence of soil organic matter and long-term carbon storage

One paradigm in biogeochemistry is that frequent disturbance tends to deplete carbon (C) in soil organic matter (SOM) by reducing biomass inputs and promoting losses. However, disturbance by fire has challenged this paradigm because soil C responses to frequent and/or intense fires are highly variable, despite observed declines in biomass inputs. Here, we review recent advances to illustrate that fire-driven changes in decomposition, mediated by altered SOM stability, are an important compensatory process offsetting declines in aboveground biomass pools. Fire alters the stability of SOM by affecting both the physicochemical properties of the SOM and the environmental drivers of decomposition, potentially offsetting C lost via combustion, but the mechanisms affecting the SOM stability differ across ecosystems. Thus, shifting our focus from a top-down view of fire impacting C cycling via changes in plant biomass to a bottom-up view of changes in decomposition may help to elucidate counterintuitive trends in the response of SOM to burning. Finally, given that 70% of global topsoil C is in fire-prone regions, using fire to promote SOM stability may be an important nature-based climate solution to increase C storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An improved daily standardized precipitation index dataset for mainland China from 1961 to 2018

The standardized precipitation index (SPI), one of the most commonly used drought indicators, is widely used in the research areas of drought analysis and drought prediction in different fields such as meteorology, agriculture, and hydrology. However, its main disadvantage is the relatively coarse time resolution of one month. To improve the time resolution of SPI to identify flash droughts, we have refined the traditional SPI calculation method and developed a new multi-scale daily SPI dataset based on data from 484 meteorological stations in mainland China from 1961 to 2018. SPI data from three different sites (located in Henan, Yunnan, and Fujian Provinces) at the three-month timescale were analyzed by comparing with historically recorded drought events. We found that the new multi-scale daily SPI can effectively capture drought events in different periods and locations and identify the specific start and end times of drought events. In short, our SPI dataset appears reasonable and capable of facilitating drought research in different fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012–2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗