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DOE OSTI2025

ASCR Workshop Position Paper: Challenges and Opportunities in High Energy Physics

High energy particle physics and cosmology concern themselves with estimating fundamental parameters of nature, such as the masses and interactions of fundamental particles like the Higgs boson and the rate of expansion of the universe. In doing so, they analyze exabyte-scale datasets, some of the largest in all of science, and face many challenges in subsequent data analysis. These challenges are shared between the two disciplines, but we focus on particle physics to highlight one specific domain. In particle physics, the standard method for estimating parameters involves performing Monte Carlo (MC) integration as a function of both parameters of interest and nuisance parameters using an expensive simulator, counting the number of observed collision events (i.i.d. samples) from an experiment in the corresponding integration domains, and forming a Poisson likelihood function. This likelihood function is then used in a Frequentist manner to construct a maximum likelihood point estimate (MLE) and confidence set for the parameters. To sufficiently populate the high-dimensional integration domains, simulators consume billions of CPU-hours annually and produce hundreds of petabytes of intermediate output data. Several techniques have been developed to: optimize definitions of the integration domains so as to be maximally sensitive to a particular subset of parameters, efficiently estimate the integrals, and build robust surrogate models by interpolating between integral evaluations at different parameter points. One can view this whole endeavor as classical Simulation-Based Inference (SBI).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Sensitive Parameters of the New Energy Vehicles in China

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government has put effort into decarbonizing the transportation sector. Consequently, China elaborated a new energy vehicle strategy promoting the production of electric vehicles and expanding into hydrogen (H2) vehicle technologies including fuel cell electric vehicles and H2 internal combustion engine vehicles. The Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) projects the market penetration as well as energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China up to 2050. By integrating the Monte Carlo simulation, this study tests the robustness of TEAM and investigates the key parameters that will shape passenger vehicle sales and emissions in the future. The results show that fuel cell cost, H2 price, and battery cost are the most sensitive parameters for H2 vehicle technologies.

Saafi, Mohamed Ali↗

NASA NTRS1985

A new world survey expression for cosmic ray vertical intensity vs. depth in standard rock

The cosmic ray data on vertical intensity versus depth below 10 to the 5th power g sq cm is fitted to a 5 parameter empirical formula to give an analytical expression for interpretation of muon fluxes in underground measurements. This expression updates earlier published results and complements the more precise curves obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo techniques in which the fit is made to an energy spectrum at the top of the atmosphere. The expression is valid in the transitional region where neutrino induced muons begin to be important, as well as at great depths where this component becomes dominant.

Crouch, M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Numerical Studies of Properties of Confined Helium

We carry out state of the art simulations of properties of confined liquid helium near the superfluid transition to a degree of accuracy which allows to make predictions for the outcome of fundamental physics experiments in microgravity. First we report our results for the finite-size scaling behavior of heat capacity of superfluids for cubic and parallel-plate geometry. This allows us to study the crossover from zero and two dimensions to three dimensions. Our calculated scaling functions are in good agreement with recently measured specific heat scaling functions for the above mentioned geometries. We also present our results of a quantum simulation of submonolayer of molecular hydrogen deposited on an ideal graphite substrate using path-integral quantum Monte Carlo simulation. We find that the monolayer phase diagram is rich and very similar to that of helium monolayer. We are able to uncover the main features of the complex monolayer phase diagram, such as the commensurate solid phases and the commensurate to incommensurate transition, in agreement with the experiments and to find some features which are missing from the experimental analysis.

Manousakis, Efstratios↗

NASA NTRS2012

Low Average Sidelobe Slot Array Antennas for Radiometer Applications

In radiometer applications, it is required to design antennas that meet low average sidelobe levels and low average return loss over a specified frequency bandwidth. It is a challenge to meet such specifications over a frequency range when one uses resonant elements such as waveguide feed slots. In addition to their inherent narrow frequency band performance, the problem is exacerbated due to modeling errors and manufacturing tolerances. There was a need to develop a design methodology to solve the problem. An iterative design procedure was developed by starting with an array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, waveguide dimensions, etc. The array was designed using Elliott s technique with appropriate values of the total slot conductance in each radiating waveguide, and the total resistance in each feed waveguide. Subsequently, the array performance was analyzed by the full wave method of moments solution to the pertinent integral equations. Monte Carlo simulations were also carried out to account for amplitude and phase errors introduced for the aperture distribution due to modeling errors as well as manufacturing tolerances. If the design margins for the average sidelobe level and the average return loss were not adequate, array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, and waveguide dimensions were varied in subsequent iterations. Once the design margins were found to be adequate, the iteration was stopped and a good design was achieved. A symmetric array architecture was found to meet the design specification with adequate margin. The specifications were near 40 dB for angular regions beyond 30 degrees from broadside. Separable Taylor distribution with nbar=4 and 35 dB sidelobe specification was chosen for each principal plane. A non-separable distribution obtained by the genetic algorithm was found to have similar characteristics. The element spacing was obtained to provide the required beamwidth and close to a null in the E-plane end-fire direction. Because of the alternating slot offsets, grating lobes called butterfly lobes are produced in non-principal planes close to the H-plane. An attempt to reduce the influence of such grating lobes resulted in a symmetric design.

Rengarajan, Sembiam↗

NASA NTRS1998

Monte Carlo Simulations of Background Spectra in Integral Imager Detectors

Predictions of the expected gamma-ray backgrounds in the ISGRI (CdTe) and PiCsIT (Csl) detectors on INTEGRAL due to cosmic-ray interactions and the diffuse gamma-ray background have been made using a coupled set of Monte Carlo radiation transport codes (HETC, FLUKA, EGS4, and MORSE) and a detailed, 3-D mass model of the spacecraft and detector assemblies. The simulations include both the prompt background component from induced hadronic and electromagnetic cascades and the delayed component due to emissions from induced radioactivity. Background spectra have been obtained with and without the use of active (BGO) shielding and charged particle rejection to evaluate the effectiveness of anticoincidence counting on background rejection.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction and uncertainty quantification of shale well performance using multifidelity Monte Carlo

Uncertainty quantification is an integral component of reservoir management, especially considering the inherent uncertainty in subsurface systems. While a standard practice to estimate the uncertainty, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intense when the sampling population comprises high-fidelity simulations. Alternatively, the Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) simulation overcomes this computational intensity by integrating low- and high-fidelity simulations. Our goal is to minimize the number of expensive high-fidelity simulations while maintaining accuracy and using numerous fast and cheap low-fidelity simulations to efficiently sample to input parameter space of interest. We selected gas production from unconventional wells to demonstrate the potential speedups and accuracy of the MFMC approach. The model fidelity usually determines the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. While the high-fidelity model is more accurate, the low-fidelity model is more efficient. Our high-fidelity simulation includes reservoir simulations of a hydraulically fractured well. On the other hand, our low-fidelity model comprises the parallel-plate flow model. We used differential programming to efficiently solve the 1D flow model, where automatic differentiation is used to efficiently compute the gradients. We matched the production profile of high-fidelity simulations with our low-fidelity simulations. Then, we used a support vector regression to map the high- and low-fidelity input parameters. The mapping function is essential to tune the low-dimensional parameter space of the low-fidelity model to the high-dimensional parameter space of the high-fidelity model. We found that we can use a combination of 9 high fidelity and 10,000 low fidelity simulations to efficiently and accurately simulate pressure management. This method is at least two orders of magnitude faster than only using high-fidelity simulations. Finally, from a broader perspective, MFMC could efficiently estimate the uncertainty of various systems and models, integrating low- and high-fidelity models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Monte Carlo MP2-F12 for Noncovalent Interactions: The C 60 Dimer

A scalable stochastic algorithm is presented that can evaluate explicitly correlated (F12) second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) energies of weak, noncovalent, intermolecular interactions. It first transforms the formulas of the MP2 and F12 energy differences into a short sum of high-dimensional integrals of Green’s functions in real space and imaginary time. Furthermore, these integrals are then evaluated by the Monte Carlo method augmented by parallel execution, redundant-walker convergence acceleration, direct-sampling autocorrelation elimination, and control-variate error reduction. By sharing electron-pair walkers across the supermolecule and its subsystems spanned by the joint basis set, the statistical uncertainty is reduced by one to 2 orders of magnitude in the MP2 binding energy corrected for the basis-set incompleteness and superposition errors. The method predicts the MP2-F12/aug-cc-pVDZ binding energy of 19.1 ± 4.0 kcal mol –1 for the C 60 dimer at the center distance of 9.748 Å.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimized Lie–Trotter–Suzuki decompositions for two and three non-commuting terms

Lie–Trotter–Suzuki decompositions are an efficient way to approximate operator exponentials exp ( t H ) when H is a sum of n (non-commuting) terms which, individually, can be exponentiated easily. They are employed in time-evolution algorithms for tensor network states, digital quantum simulation protocols, path integral methods like quantum Monte Carlo, and splitting methods for symplectic integrators in classical Hamiltonian systems. Here, we provide optimized decompositions up to order t 6 . The leading error term is expanded in nested commutators (Hall bases) and we minimize the 1-norm of the coefficients. For n = 2 terms, several of the optima we find are close to those in McLachlan (1995). Generally, our results substantially improve over unoptimized decompositions by Forest, Ruth, Yoshida, and Suzuki. We explain why these decompositions are sufficient to efficiently simulate any one- or two-dimensional lattice model with finite-range interactions. This follows by solving a partitioning problem for the interaction graph.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2008

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗

NASA NTRS1971

Computational investigations of low-discrepancy point sets

The quasi-Monte Carlo method of integration offers an attractive solution to the problem of evaluating integrals in a large number of dimensions; however, the associated error bounds are difficult to obtain theoretically. Since these bounds are associated with the L2 discrepancy of the set of points used in the integration. Numerical calculations of the L2 discrepancy for several types of quasi-Monte Carlo formulae are presented.

Warnock, T. T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

ITS Version 6.7: The Integrated TIGER Series of Coupled Electron/Photon Monte Carlo Transport Codes User's Manual

ITS is a powerful software package permitting state-of-the-art Monte Carlo solution of linear time-independent coupled electron/photon radiation transport problems, with or without the presence of macroscopic electric and magnetic fields of arbitrary spatial dependence. Our goal has been to simultaneously maximize operational simplicity and physical accuracy. Through a set of preprocessor directives, the user selects one of the many ITS codes. The ease with which the make system is applied combines with an input scheme based on order-independent descriptive keywords that makes maximum use of defaults and internal error checking to provide experimentalists and theorists alike with a method for the routine but rigorous solution of sophisticated radiation transport problems. Physical rigor is provided by employing accurate cross sections, sampling distributions, and physical models for describing the production and transport of the electron/photon cascade from 1.0 GeV down to 1.0 keV. The availability of source code permits the more sophisticated user to tailor the codes to specific applications and to extend the capabilities of the codes to more complex applications. Version 6, the latest version of ITS, contains (1) improvements to the ITS 5.0 codes, and (2) conversion to Fortran 95. The general user friendliness of the software has been enhanced through memory allocation to reduce the need for users to modify and recompile the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stable Solid Molecular Hydrogen above 900 K from a Machine-Learned Potential Trained with Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo

Here, we survey the phase diagram of high-pressure molecular hydrogen with path integral molecular dynamics using a machine-learned interatomic potential trained with quantum Monte Carlo forces and energies. Besides the HCP and C2/c–24 phases, we find two new stable phases both with molecular centers in the Fmmm–4 structure, separated by a molecular orientation transition with temperature. The high temperature isotropic Fmmm–4 phase has a reentrant melting line with a maximum at higher temperature (1450 K at 150 GPa) than previously estimated and crosses the liquid-liquid transition line around 1200 K and 200 GPa.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of the Integrated Medical Model Predictions to Real World ISS and STS Observations

The Human Research Program funded the development of the integrated medical model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo methodology to integrate space flight and ground medical data to assess the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compare IMM output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions.

validation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of Monte Carlo Reference Equilibrium Core Solutions for Pebble Bed Reactors Using Shift in kugelpy

This report describes how to produce reference solutions for the equilibrium core search of pebble bed reactors using the pyrates Python library. The pyrates library uses the kugelpy methodology to perform running-in calculations to reach an equilibrium core. This approach relies on full-core Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations and the shifting of fuel pebble inventory through the reactor to simulate pebble movement in the core from one step to the next of a running-in scenario. In addition to the use of Serpent for the Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations, as part of this work, updates for the use of the Shift Monte Carlo code were integrated into the official pyrates GitHub repository. Comparisons of running-in simulations for a generic pebble bed reactor produced by using pyrates with Serpent and Shift are shown. Although consistent trends are shown between the use of the two Monte Carlo codes, the limiting factor in either calculation is the computation time due to the need to perform several hundred full-core neutron transport calculations before an equilibrium core is reached.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of Monte Carlo Reference Equilibrium Core Solutions for Pebble Bed Reactors Using Shift in kugelpy

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adsorbate Partition Functions via Phase Space Integration: Quantifying the Effect of Translational Anharmonicity on Thermodynamic Properties

A new method for computing anharmonic thermophysical properties for adsorbates on metal surfaces is presented. Classical Monte Carlo phase space integration is performed to calculate the partition function for the motion of a hydrogen atom on Cu(111). Here, a minima-preserving neural network potential energy surface is used within the integration routine. Two different sampling schema for generating the training data are presented, and two different density functionals are used. The results are benchmarked against direct state counting results by using discrete variable representation. The phase space integration results are in excellent quantitative agreement with the benchmark results. Additionally, both the discrete variable representation and the phase space integration results confirm that the motion of H on Cu(111) is highly anharmonic. The results were applied to calculate the free energy of dissociative adsorption of H 2 and the resulting Langmuir isotherms at 400, 800, and 1200 K in a partial pressure range of 0–1 bar. It shows that the anharmonic effects lead to significantly higher predicted surface site fractions of hydrogen.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗