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At least 109 records · Page 6

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗

A Finite-Time Ensemble Method for Mixed Layer Model Comparison

Here, this work evaluates the fidelity of various upper-ocean turbulence parameterizations subject to realistic monsoon forcing and presents a finite-time ensemble vector (EV) method to better manage the design and numerical principles of these parameterizations. The EV method emphasizes the dynamics of a turbulence closure multimodel ensemble and is applied to evaluate 10 different ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) parameterizations within a single-column (SC) model against two boundary layer large-eddy simulations (LES). Both LES include realistic surface forcing, but one includes wind-driven shear turbulence only, while the other includes additional Stokes forcing through the wave-average equations that generate Langmuir turbulence. The finite-time EV framework focuses on what constitutes the local behavior of the mixed layer dynamical system and isolates the forcing and ocean state conditions where turbulence parameterizations most disagree. Identifying disagreement provides the potential to evaluate SC models comparatively against the LES. Observations collected during the 2018 monsoon onset in the Bay of Bengal provide a case study to evaluate models under realistic and variable forcing conditions. The case study results highlight two regimes where models disagree 1) during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and 2) under strong diurnal forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models

Abstract The overall performance of the simulated seasonal precipitation response to local terrestrial forcings, namely vegetation abundance and soil moisture, in the Sahel among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) Earth System Models (ESMs) is systematically investigated and compared with its observational counterpart using a multivariate statistical method. The observed seasonal precipitation response is evaluated against a large ensemble of observational, reanalysis, and satellite data sets to provide quantification of uncertainties. The behaviour of models with and without a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) component is also explored, along with the mechanisms responsible for terrestrial feedback on rainfall. In general, the CMIP5 models can reasonably capture the seasonal evolution of Sahel precipitation and soil moisture, albeit with wet biases during the pre‐monsoon period and dry biases during the peak monsoon period. The non‐DGVM ESMs simulate comparable leaf area indices (LAIs) with observations, while DGVM‐enabled ESMs simulate too much year‐round LAI. The variance of precipitation that is attributed to oceanic forcings in CMIP5 is comparable with observations; however, the variance of precipitation that is attributed to terrestrial forcings is smaller in CMIP5 models than observed, especially for non‐DGVM ESMs. CMIP5 models, especially those without DGVMs, undervalue precipitation's observed response strength to soil moisture anomalies. In both observations and CMIP5 models, none of the atmospheric variables show significant responses to direct vegetation forcing, except for the response in transpiration. Although vegetation has minimal direct effect on the atmospheric state, it can affect the atmosphere by modifying soil moisture and transpiration rate indirectly, which helps explain the more realistic simulation of rainfall in DGVM‐enabled ESMs than non‐DGVM ESMs. Coupling of an ESM to a DGVM is critical in generating reasonable land–atmosphere feedback and examining future ecological and climatic changes over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sediment transport and morphodynamic changes due to upstream variation and sea level rise on the Western Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.

Climate change↗

Seasonal variation of the surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea: a Lagrangian perspective

Previous studies on cross-shelf exchange, predominantly adopted an Eulerian perspective, struggled to identify water sources and pathways. Using a high-resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and Lagrangian particle tracking, this study systematically investigates the seasonal variation and dynamics of surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) from a Lagrangian perspective. Based on daily released 30-day drifter trajectories we identify the key pathways, source regions for surface cross-shelf exchange, revealing pronounced seasonal variability. Results show the surface cross-shelf exchange generally following monsoon-driven Ekman transport. However, local dynamics, especially topographic modulation, can outweigh the expected Ekman-driven transport, producing surface exchange patterns opposite to that predicted from the prevailing winds. Topographic effects vary across different scales. In the coastal waters of western Guangdong during winter, despite downwelling-favorable winds, the modulation of alongshore currents by island topography induces an eastward pressure gradient. This gradient, through geostrophic balance, drives offshore flows opposite to wind-driven Ekman onshore transport. Furthermore, the eastern widened shelf exhibits a distinct seasonal variation of cross-shelf exchange, with strong offshore transport (opposite to the direction of Ekman transport) in winter and exceedingly weak exchange in summer. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms reveals that this winter offshore transport is primarily attributed to geostrophic flows driven by surface pressure gradient that is jointly modulated by the Kuroshio intrusion and local widened shelf topography, and enhanced by cumulative submesoscale processes. In summer, a persistent and strong along-isobath jet acts as a dynamic barrier, effectively suppressing the exchange. These findings highlight the important role of topography in regulating surface material transport, and have important implications for predicting the advection and dispersion of plankton or oil spills over the continental shelf influenced by monsoon.

Hao, Dongliang↗

Numerical Errors in Ice Microphysics Parameterizations and their Effects on Simulated Regional Climate

The major characteristics of ice microphysics in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) bulk-type cloud microphysics originate from the diagnosed ice number concentration, which is a function of the cloud-ice mixing ratio. In this study, we correct numerical errors in ice microphysics processes of the WDM6, in which the cloud-ice shape is assumed as single bullets and examine the impact on regional climate simulations. Here, by rederiving the relationships between cloud microphysics characteristics, including the one linking the cloud-ice mixing ratio and number concentration, we remove numerical errors intrinsic to the description of cloud-ice characteristics in the original WDM6 microphysics scheme. The revised WDM6 is tested using a WRF framework for regional climate simulations over the East Asian region. We find that our correction to the WDM6 improves the model’s performance in capturing the observed distribution of the monsoon rain band. A reduction in cloud ice is significant in the revised WDM6, which strengthens the Western North Pacific High. By conducting the additional sensitivity experiment in which the characteristics of cloud-ice shape are revised as the one for the column type, our study also finds out that the impacts of the existing numerical errors on the simulated monsoon is as large as the ones of the changes in cloud-ice shape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intra-annual variations of regional total column ozone, aerosol optical depth, and water vapor from ground-based, satellite-based and model-based observations

The Microtops II ozonometer has been deployed to continuously measure the total column ozone (TCO), pre-cipitable water content (PWC) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at Atigre village (16.74° N, 74.37° E, 604 m above sea level, masl) located on the southeastern slope of Indian western Ghats. The Microtops II ozonometer measurements during the period from September 2017 to June 2018 were analyzed along with the retrieved products of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellites and also the ERA-interim reanalysis model. We found that the TCO (or PWC) data from the OMI (or MODIS) and the ERA reanalysis model data products are in good agreement. The mea-surements showed strong seasonal variability such that TCO was lowest in the winter season but increased in the summer season, and both PWC and AOT were lowest in the post-monsoon season and increased in the summer season. In continuous ERA-interim reanalysis TCO observations, we found the three types of periodicities in the daily mean TCO as well as PWC (i) The weekly (7 days), (ii) quasi-biweekly (14 to 16 days), (iii) Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) (30–60 days) oscillations. These oscillations depend on the periodic weather changes in the troposphere. We also observe that the average day to day variability in daily mean TCO observations in the observational period is about 1.4%, 1.1%, 2.62% in the Microtops II ozonometer, ERA-interim reanalysis, and OMI data respectively. We found the positive correlation between daily mean AOT and PWC in all seasons (except monsoon), which is maximum in the winter season, showing the hygroscopic nature of aerosols. The sources of water vapor and aerosol at our location are also studied using back-trajectory analysis.

Nade, Dada R.↗

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and below the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone dominated, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. Importantly, we interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections

Accurate representation and projection of water fluxes are vital, particularly in monsoon regions where seasonal variability and changes significantly impact water resources, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and the economy. This study uses both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to investigate the present-day representation of key water flux components (including precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, and moisture advection) over the Afro-Asian region during the summer monsoon (JJAS). We also examine future changes under two emission scenarios and assess the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes while identifying sources of projection uncertainty. Our results show that both models reasonably capture the present-day characteristics of water flux components, although with noticeable biases. Across most regions, we find that CMIP6 models demonstrate slight improvements over CMIP5 in the representation of these components. In a warmer future, a robust intensification of JJAS precipitation (exceeding 0.25 mm/day) is projected across the Afro-Asian region. This increase is largely driven by the vertical thermodynamic term associated with increasing temperature. We find that model uncertainty is the primary source of uncertainty in water flux projections, accounting for over 50 % of the total variance.

Climate change↗

Convergent Hydraulic Redistribution and Groundwater Access Supported Facilitative Dependency Between Trees and Grasses in a Semi‐Arid Environment

Abstract Hydraulic redistribution is the transport of water from wet to dry soil layers, upward or downward, through plant roots. Often in savanna and woodland ecosystems, deep‐rooted trees, and shallow‐rooted grasses coexist. The degree to which these different species compete for or share soil‐water derived from precipitation or groundwater, as well as how these interactions are altered by hydraulic redistribution, is unknown. We use a multilayer canopy model and field observations to examine how the presence of deep, but tree‐root accessible, groundwater impacts seasonal patterns of hydraulic redistribution, and interaction between coexisting vegetation species in a semiarid riparian woodland (US‐CMW). Based on the simulation, trees absorb moisture at the water table (∼10 m depth) and release it in the shallow soil depth (0–3 m) during the dry pre‐monsoon season. We observed the occurrence of a new convergent hydraulic redistribution pattern during the monsoon season, where moisture is transported from both the near‐surface (0–0.5 m) and the water table to intermediate soil layers (1–5 m) through tree roots. We found that hydraulic redistribution demonstrates a growth facilitation effect at this site, supporting 49% of growing season tree transpiration and 14% of the grass transpiration. Compared to a similarly structured upland savanna without accessible groundwater, the riparian site shows an increased amount of hydraulically redistributed water and more facilitative water use between coexisting grasses and trees. These results shed light on the linkage between accessible groundwater and the role of hydraulic redistribution on the interaction between deep‐rooted and shallow‐rooted vegetation.

Lee, E.↗

Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the WAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Cross-Shelf Exchange by the Eddies Associated With Plume Front

Broadened width of high chlorophyll concentration band with wavy structures, patches, and filaments are often observed along the western coastal next to the Pearl River Estuary over the northern South China Sea shelf during the transition period from winter to summer monsoon. Whereas, there is no such wide band in other seasons. By using a high-resolution numerical model, we reveal that the complex structure and wider band of high coastal chlorophyll concentration results from the smaller scale eddies (about 20–50 km in diameter) associated with buoyant plume-induced salinity front and density fronts, which are roughly along the 30 and 50 m isobaths, respectively. Two trains of eddies are formed along the fronts by the baroclinic instability triggered by frequently alternating winds over the fronts during the period of monsoon transition. The influences of these two trains of eddies are extended in the cross-shelf direction by their interactions, and they can temporally enhance the cross-shelf flow and material exchange. In conclusion, they serve as an efficient pathway to link the inner shelf toward the continental slope.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

700,000 years of tropical Andean glaciation

Our understanding of the climatic teleconnections that drove ice-age cycles has been limited by a paucity of well-dated tropical records of glaciation that span several glacial–interglacial intervals. Glacial deposits offer discrete snapshots of glacier extent but cannot provide the continuous records required for detailed interhemispheric comparisons. By contrast, lakes located within glaciated catchments can provide continuous archives of upstream glacial activity, but few such records extend beyond the last glacial cycle. Here a piston core from Lake Junín in the uppermost Amazon basin provides the first, to our knowledge, continuous, independently dated archive of tropical glaciation spanning 700,000 years. We find that tropical glaciers tracked changes in global ice volume and followed a clear approximately 100,000-year periodicity. An enhancement in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers relative to global ice volume occurred between 200,000 and 400,000 years ago, during sustained intervals of regionally elevated hydrologic balance that modified the regular approximately 23,000-year pacing of monsoon-driven precipitation. Millennial-scale variations in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers during the last glacial cycle were driven by variations in regional monsoon strength that were linked to temperature perturbations in Greenland ice cores; these interhemispheric connections may have existed during previous glacial cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly due to a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability. While climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here, we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favors the dipolar precipitation trend during 1951-2020. Additionally, the phase transition of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium or high emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared to the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift into a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift of precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft observations in a tropical supercluster over the equatorial Indian Ocean during MISO-BOB field campaign

The Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BOB) field campaign was conducted in the Indian Ocean during the 2018 and 2019 summer monsoon seasons. WC-130J aircraft of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the US Air Force participated in the campaign in June 2018. The dropsonde observations across a tropical supercluster showed zonal wind variations in association with the structure of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). Within the supercluster, easterlies (westerlies) were observed in the upper (lower) troposphere; this transformation occurred just below the 0° C level. The cold pool had an easterly component throughout, and it was coldest (by 2.5° C) at the center of the supercluster, deepest (~ 1000 m) at its rear/western end, and shallowest (~ 300 m) at the front/eastern end. The level of free convection (LFC) at the front end was at 897 m altitude. At the eastern flank of the supercluster, zonal convergence in the lower troposphere occurred between 500-1500 m levels above the surface between the westerlies within the supercluster and opposing ambient easterlies. Thus, the uplifting of conditionally unstable air parcels above LFC to the east of the supercluster was likely to occur due to this convergence rather than the cold pool influence. Conversely, the western flank of the supercluster had low-level zonal divergence. These observations support the notion of ‘self-similarity’ among the mesoscale convective systems and large-scale waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anthropogenic sulfate-climate interactions suppress dust activity over East Asia

Observational evidences indicate a significant decline in dust storm frequencies over the East Asian arid-semiarid region during recent decades, which creates a strong contrast with a great increase in sulfate emissions over monsoonal Asia. However, the causes for decline of dust activities are still controversial. Through conducting a set of idealized sensitivity experiments of regional aerosol perturbations, here we show that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over monsoonal Asia remarkably suppress the regional dust activities over East Asia. Southward shift of Asian westerly jet stream induced by sulfate aerosols results in increasing precipitation and weakening surface wind speeds over the arid-semiarid region, thereby suppressing local dust emission fluxes. Further, the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations indicate that anthropogenic aerosols partly drive the recent weakening in regional dust activities and that future change of regional dust activities will likely depend on emissions scenarios of Asian anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗