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NASA NTRS2020

Relative Importance of Greenhouse Gases, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, and Black Carbon Aerosol for South Asian Monsoon Rainfall Changes

The contribution of individual aerosol species and greenhouse gases to precipitation changes during the South Asian summer monsoon is uncertain. Mechanisms driving responses to anthropogenic forcings need further characterization. We use an atmosphere‐only climate model to simulate the fast response of the summer monsoon to different anthropogenic aerosol types and to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Without normalization, sulfate is the largest driver of precipitation change between 1850 and 2000, followed by black carbon and greenhouse gases. Normalized by radiative forcing, the most effective driver is black carbon. The precipitation and moisture budget responses to combinations of aerosol species perturbed together scale as a linear superposition of their individual responses. We use both a circulation‐based and moisture budget‐based argument to identify mechanisms of aerosol and greenhouse gas induced changes to precipitation, and find that in all cases the dynamic contribution is the dominant driver to precipitation change in the monsoon region.

climate↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Convective Transport and Evolution of Clouds and aerosols in the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

The existence of a persistent layer in the lowermost stratosphere in the Asian Monsoon region is well-known and has been observed by satellites and also in situ by balloon-borne sensors. This aerosol layer has been observed to persist every year by both SAGE sensors and by CALIOP, between the tropopause and the lower boundary of the Junge stratospheric sulfate layer. But how does this layer form and why? Apparently, aerosols are lofted by convection form the Indian and Asian continents, into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) area in the middle of a persistent anticyclone associate with the Asian summer monsoon. But some mysteries remain. The top of this aerosol layer is well above the altitude of maximum convective outflow, so why is the top of the aerosol layer so high? Are the aerosols coming from China or from India? And finally, is there an observable impact of these aerosol on thin cirrus distributions in the UT/LS? We explore the interesting difference in altitude between the ATAL layer and the convective cloud top height, using observations from CALIOP and from SAGE. In the process of doing this we examine the accuracy of both CALIOP and SAGE cloud/aerosol discrimination, and the impact of various averaging lengths. We compare the apparent "observational tropopause" with observations from COSMIC, CALIOP (clouds), and with modeled interpolation from MERRA-2. We also compare CALIOP and CloudSat daytime cloud top heights for convective clouds with the vertical aerosol distribution, and evaluate convection in this region as represented by MERRA-2. Finally, and maybe most importantly we compare convective cloud top heights and temperatures with diurnal variability during the most recent years by using observations from the geostationary Himawari satellite. How representative are the twice-daily A-Train observations, when compared to the natural diurnal variability of convection? The goal is to establish the origins of these UT/LS aerosols, whether these aerosol distributions can be completely explained by convective transport, and to evaluate convective lofting of aerosol by models. Ultimately, the convective lofting of aerosols as modeled is needed to explain the Asian Monsoon aerosol distributions. The observations contribute much-needed information to enhance the model accuracy.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation models (GCMs) could improve predictability of observed future precipitation changes. The aims here are (1) to assess the role of aerosols in India's monsoon precipitation and (2) to determine the roles of local and regional emissions. For (1), we study the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project experiments. We find that the precipitation response to changes in black carbon is highly uncertain with a large intermodel spread due in part to model differences in simulating changes in cloud vertical profiles. Effects from sulfate are clearer; increased sulfate reduces Indian precipitation, a consistency through all of the models studied here. For (2), we study bespoke simulations, with reduced Chinese and/or Indian emissions in three GCMs. A significant increase in precipitation (up to ∼20 %) is found only when both countries' sulfur emissions are regulated, which has been driven in large part by dynamic shifts in the location of convective regions in India. These changes have the potential to restore a portion of the precipitation losses induced by sulfate forcing over the last few decades.

Indian monsoons↗
NASA NTRS1981

Structure and dynamics of monsoon depressions: The Monex depression (July 1979)

The mechanisms for the formation and movement of monsoon depressions are discussed. The east-west oriented monsoon throughs which move north and south and appear over the Bay of Bengal and move northwest over India are examined. The mechanisms of formation and movement are summarized: (1) monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal are caused either by amplification of westward propagating weak disturbances or by downward propagation of the internal jet instability of the easterly jet; (2) the barotropic instability of the low level flow over the Bay of Bengal is conductive to the growth of weak disturbances; (3) the CISK is the primary driving mechanism for the rapid growth for a preexisting weak perturbation; and (4) once the disturbance has attained adequate amplitude in the lower levels, the low level moisture convergence and latent heat condensation is utilized more efficiently for the development of a vertically coupled deep disturbance which along with upper level easterlies contribute to the westward propagation of the disturbance.

Shukla, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Global aspects of monsoons

Recent developments are studied in three areas of monsoon research: (1) global aspects of the monsoon onset, (2) the orographic influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the summer monsoon circulations, and (3) tropical 40 to 50 day oscillations. Reference was made only to those studies that are primarily based on FGGE Level IIIb data. A brief summary is given.

Murakami, T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Analysis of remote measurements of tropospheric carbon monoxide concentrations made during the 1979 Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX)

Mixing ratios of tropospheric CO as measured by an aircraft-mounted radiometer over Saudi Arabia, the Arabian Sea, and northern India during May and June 1979 are reported. During early May, exceptionally high CO levels were detected over Saudi Arabia, and strong horizontal gradients in CO mixing ratios were seen to develop over a period of several days. Over the Arabian Sea, mixing ratios of the order of 150 parts per billion by volume were observed before the monsoon onset, and a pronounced decrease in CO was detected toward the equator. Subsequent measurements after the monsoon had become established revealed a consistent decrease in CO mixing ratio across this region. Analysis of aircraft dropsonde data and constant pressure daily streamline charts lend strong support to the hypothesis that this reduction is associated with the influx of CO-poor Southern Hemisphere air in the monsoon southwesterlies.

Doherty, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evidence for eddy formation in the eastern Arabian Sea during the northeast monsoon

The seasonal formation of a large (500-800 km diameter) anticyclonic eddy in the upper 300-400 m of the eastern Arabian Sea during the northest monsoon period (December-April) is indicated fom hydrographic and satellite altimetry sea level observations, as well as from numerical model experiments. The center of the eddy circulation is approximately 10 deg N, 70 deg E, just to the west of the north-south Laccadive Island chain. In this paper the eddy is called the Laccadive High (LH). In some ways it is like a mirrorlike counterpart to the Great Whirl that develops during the southwest monsoon of the Somali coast (western Arabian Sea). The LH occurs at the same latitude but on the opposite side of the basin during the reversed monsoon. It is different from the Great Whirl, however, in its formation process, its intensity, and its decay. The hydrographic data obtained from surveys all during a single season give sufficiently close station spacing to allow reasonable contouring of the geopotential surfaces and of the properties within and around the LH region with minimum time aliasing. The Geostat altimeter record extends over 4 years, during which the seasonal variability of the LH indicates a dynamic relief of approximately 15-20 cm, which is in good agreement with the hydrographics observations. The altimetry time series also suggests a westward translation of the LH by January with a subsequent dissipation in midbasin. The model used is a wind-forced three-layer primitive equation model which depicts a LH agreement with the timing, position, and amplitude of both the hydrographic and altimetric measurements. The numerical simulation includes a passive tracer located in the Western Bay of Bengal; the western advection of the tracer around the south coasts of Sri Lanka and India in December and January is consistent with the appearance of low-salinity water observed to extend into the Arabian Sea during this period. The modeling studies suggest that both local and remote forcing are important in formation of the LH.

Bruce, John G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons

The predictability of the 1997 and 1998 south Asian summer monsoon winds is examined from an ensemble of 10 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture, The simulations are started in September 1996 so that they have lost all memory of the atmospheric initial conditions for the periods of interest. The model simulations show that the 1998 monsoon is considerably more predictable than the 1997 monsoon. During May and June of 1998 the predictability of the low-level wind anomalies is largely associated with a local response to anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability increases late in the season (July and August) as a result of the strengthening of the anomalous Walker circulation and the associated development of easterly low level wind anomalies that extend westward across India and the Arabian Sea. During these months the model is also the most skillful with the observations showing a similar late-season westward extension of the easterly CD wind anomalies. The model shows little predictability or skill in the low level winds over southeast Asia during, 1997. Predictable wind anomalies do occur over the western Indian Ocean and Indonesia, however, over the Indian Ocean they are a response to SST anomalies that were wind driven and they show no skill. The reduced predictability in the low level winds during 1997 appears to be the result of a weaker (compared with 1998) simulated anomalous Walker circulation, while the reduced skill is associated with pronounced intraseasonal activity that is not well captured by the model. Remarkably, the model does produce an ensemble mean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) response that is approximately in phase with (though weaker than) the observed MJ0 anomalies. This is consistent with the idea that SST coupling may play an important role in the MJO.

Schubert, Siegfred D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data fiom the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo- China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the lowlevel temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation.

Wang, Yansen↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Misnomer of East Asia Summer Monsoon

The terminology East Asian summer monsoon is used to refer to the heavy rainfall in southeast China including the Yangtze River Valley starting in May and ending in August (e.g., Chen and Chang 1980, Tao and Chen 1987, Ding 1992, Chang et al. 2000a.) This rainfall region is associated with the Mei-Yu front, which extends to Japan and its neighborhood and is called Baiu there. The Mei-Yu front becomes prominent in May and has a slow northward movement. From May to July the elongated rain belt moves from the southeast coast of China to the Yangtze River Valley. The rain belt extends north-east-ward to south of Japan in May and later covers Korea also. The purpose of this note is to point out that the terminology of East Asian summer monsoon is a misnomer to refer to the portion of this rainbelt residing over East Asia, in the sense that it is not a monsoon.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗
NASA NTRS2006

Asian Summer Monsoon Anomalies Induced by Aerosol Direct Forcing: The Role of the Tibetan Plateau

In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the premonsoon season of March April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an elevated heat pump , the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comments on "The "Elevated Heat Pump" Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: "Grounded" in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper Nigam and Bollasina [2010, hereafter NB] claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Km 2006). We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from a lack of understanding and an out-of-context interpretation of the hypothesis. It was argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May as evidences against the EHP hypothesis. They cannot be more wrong in that argument. First, Lau and Kim [2006, hereafter, LKO6] never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are non-local in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. Third, the correlation maps shown in NB, including the increased convection over the Bay of Bengal is not the response to EHP but rather represents the large-scale circulation that provides the build-up of the aerosols, before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no wash-out by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Mesoscale Analysis of Column-Integrated Aerosol Properties in Northern India During the TIGERZ 2008 Pre-Monsoon Period and a Comparison to MODIS Retrievals

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of the northern Indian subcontinent produces anthropogenic pollution from urban, industrial and rural combustion sources nearly continuously and is affected by convection-induced winds driving desert and alluvial dust into the atmosphere during the premonsoon period. Within the IGP, the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) project initiated the TIGERZ measurement campaign in May 2008 with an intensive operational period from May 1 to June 23, 2008. Mesoscale spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD, tau) measurements at 500mn was assessed at sites around Kanpur, India, with averages ranging from 0.31 to 0.89 for spatial variability study (SVS) deployments. Sites located downwind from the city of Kanpur indicated slightly higher average aerosol optical depth (delta Tau(sub 500)=0.03-0.09). In addition, SVS AOD area-averages were compared to the long-tenn Kanpur AERONET site data: Four SVS area-averages were within +/- 1 cr of the climatological mean of the Kanpur site, while one SVS was within 2sigma below climatology. For a SVS case using AERONET inversions, the 440-870mn Angstrom exponent of approximately 0.38, the 440-870mn absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) of 1.15-1.53, and the sphericity parameter near zero suggested the occurrence of large, strongly absorbing, non-spherical aerosols over Kanpur (e.g., mixed black carbon and dust) as well as stronger absorption downwind of Kanpur. Furthermore, the 3km and lOkm Terra and Aqua MODIS C005 aerosol retrieval algorithms at tau(sub 550) were compared to the TIGERZ data set. Although MODIS retrievals at higher quality levels were comparable to the MODIS retrieval uncertainty, the total number of MODIS matchups (N) were reduced with subsequent quality levels (N=25, QA>=0; N=9,QA>=l; N=6, QA>=2; N=1, QA=3) over Kanpur during the premonsoon primarily due to the semi-bright surface, complex aerosol mixture and cloud-contaminated pixels. The TIGERZ 2008 data set provided a unique opportunity to measure the spatial and temporal variations of aerosol loading in the IGP. The strong aerosol absorption derived from ground-based sun/sky radiometer measurements suggested the presence of a predominately black carbon and dust mixture during the pre-monsoon period. Consistent with the elevated heat-pump hypothesis, these absorbing aerosols found across Kanpur and the greater IGP region during the pre-monsoon period likely induced regional atmospheric warming, which lead to a more rapid advance of the southwest Asian monsoon and above normal precipitation over northern India in June 2008.

Giles, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Lau, K. M.↗