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Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Eastern Pacific Hurricanes on the Southwest US Wildfire Environment

Abstract While some previous studies examined the contribution of Eastern Pacific (EP) hurricanes toward precipitation in the arid Southwest US (SWUS), their potential to influence wildfires in that region has not been explored. Here we show, using observations and simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), that recurving EP hurricanes modulate the wildfire environment in the SWUS by increasing precipitation and soil moisture, and reducing the vapor pressure deficit. This is especially the case during late season months of September–October when the likelihood of storms to recurve and make landfall increases. Further, analysis of burnt area observations reveals that for the months of September–October, recurving EP hurricanes may significantly reduce the prevalence of wildfires in the SWUS. Finally, E3SM simulations indicate that late season EP hurricanes have been on the decline, with important implications for wildfires in the SWUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning feature analysis illuminates disparity between E3SM climate models and observed climate change

In September of 2020, Arctic sea ice extent was the second-lowest on record. State of the art climate prediction uses Earth system models (ESMs), driven by systems of differential equations representing the laws of physics. Previously, these models have tended to underestimate Arctic sea ice loss. The issue is grave because accurate modeling is critical for economic, ecological, and geopolitical planning. We use machine learning techniques, including random forest regression and Gini importance, to show that the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) relies too heavily on just one of the ten chosen climatological quantities to predict September sea ice averages. Furthermore, E3SM gives too much importance to six of those quantities when compared to observed data. Finally, identifying the features that climate models incorrectly rely on should allow climatologists to improve prediction accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hourly water-carbon interactions modulate decadal water-use efficiency trends inferred from ecosystem-scale measurements

Plant stomatal conductance regulates photosynthesis and transpiration. This physiological link affects ecosystem responses to microclimate and harmonizes carbon, energy, and water exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. The relationship between water losses via transpiration and carbon gains via photosynthesis can be quantified by plant water-use efficiency (WUE). While leaf- and ecosystem-scale observations both suggest rising WUE in recent decades, WUE trends inferred from the ecosystem scale are much larger than those inferred from the leaf scale or implied by theory. The unexpectedly large ecosystem-scale WUE trends complicate interpretation of ecophysiological responses to changing environmental conditions. Here, we analyze ecosystem-scale WUE inferred from 40 FLUXNET sites, each with at least 10 years of measurements. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that observed ecosystem-scale WUE trends are more sensitive to hourly weather conditions than longer-term changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide or vapor pressure deficit. Our analysis shows that Earth System Models participating in CMIP6 did not capture the observed WUE sensitivity to inter-site variability and microclimatic conditions. Collectively, our findings suggest that ecosystem-scale WUE trends reflect water-carbon interactions across multiple temporal scales, and disentangling factors contributing to emergent ecosystem responses is needed to infer ecophysiological relationships and model structures from observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Ice Nucleating Particles Over the Southern Ocean Using Simultaneous Aircraft and Ship Observations

Abstract Supercooled liquid clouds are ubiquitous over the Southern Ocean (SO), even to temperatures below −20°C, and comprise a large fraction of the marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Earth system models and reanalysis products have struggled to reproduce the observed cloud phase distribution and occurrence of cloud ice in the region. Recent simulations found the microphysical representation of ice nucleation and growth has a large impact on these properties, however, measurements of SO ice nucleating particles (INPs) to validate simulations are sparse. This study presents measurements of INPs from simultaneous aircraft and ship campaigns conducted over the SO in austral summer 2018, which include the first in situ observations in and above cloud in the region. Our results confirm recent observations that INP concentrations are uniformly lower than measurements made in the late 1960s. While INP concentrations below and above cloud are similar, higher ice nucleation efficiency above cloud supports model simulations that the dominant INP composition varies with height. Model parameterizations based solely on aerosol properties capture the mean relationship between INP concentration and temperature but not the observed variability, which is likely related to the only modest correlations observed between INPs and environmental or aerosol metrics. Including wind speed in addition to activation temperature in a marine INP parameterization reduces bias but does not explain the large range of observed INP concentrations. Direct and indirect inference of marine INP size suggests MBL INPs, at least during Austral summer, are dominated by particles with diameters smaller than 500 nm.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Biomass burning aerosols in most climate models are too absorbing

Uncertainty in the representation of biomass burning (BB) aerosol composition and optical properties in climate models contributes to a range in modeled aerosol effects on incoming solar radiation. Depending on the model, the top-of-the-atmosphere BB aerosol effect can range from cooling to warming. By relating aerosol absorption relative to extinction and carbonaceous aerosol composition from 12 observational datasets to nine state-of-the-art Earth system models/chemical transport models, we identify varying degrees of overestimation in BB aerosol absorptivity by these models. Modifications to BB aerosol refractive index, size, and mixing state improve the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) agreement with observations, leading to a global change in BB direct radiative effect of -0.07 W m -2 , and regional changes of -2 W m -2 (Africa) and -0.5 W m -2 (South America/Temperate). Our findings suggest that current modeled BB contributes less to warming than previously thought, largely due to treatments of aerosol mixing state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Baseline for Global Weather and Climate Simulations at 1 km Resolution

In an attempt to advance the understanding of the Earth's weather and climate by representing deep convection explicitly, we present a global, four-month simulation (November 2018 to February 2019) with ECMWF's hydrostatic Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at an average grid spacing of 1.4 km. The impact of explicitly simulating deep convection on the atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed by comparing the 1.4 km simulation to the equivalent well-tested and calibrated global simulations at 9 km grid spacing with and without parametrized deep convection. The explicit simulation of deep convection at 1.4 km results in a realistic large-scale circulation, better representation of convective storm activity, and stronger convective gravity wave activity when compared to the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection. Comparison of the 1.4 km simulation to the 9 km simulation without parametrized deep convection shows that switching off deep convection parametrization at a too coarse resolution (i.e., 9 km) generates too strong convective gravity waves. Based on the limited statistics available, improvements to the Madden-Julian Oscillation or tropical precipitation are not observed at 1.4 km, suggesting that other Earth system model components and/or their interaction are important for an accurate representation of these processes and may well need adjusting at deep convection resolving resolutions. Overall, the good agreement of the 1.4 km simulation with the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection is remarkable, despite one of the most fundamental parametrizations being turned off at 1.4 km resolution and despite no adjustments being made to the remaining parametrizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PCMDI Metrics Package

The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is used to provide "quick-look" objective comparisons of Earth System Models (ESMs) with one another and available observations. The PMP provides a diverse suite of analysis utilities each of which produce summary statistics that gauge the consistency between climate model simulations and available observations. The primary application of the PMP is to evaluate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It can also be used to provide objective performance summaries during the model development process as well as selected research purposes.

Ullrich, PaulA [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗

Assessing Tropical Pacific-induced Predictability of Southern California Precipitation Using a Novel Multi-input Multi-output Autoencoder

We construct a novel Multi-Input Multi-Output Autoencoder-decoder (MIMO-AE) to capture the non-linear relationship of Southern California precipitation and tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature. The MIMO-AE is trained on both monthly TP-SST and SC-PRECIP anomalies simultaneously. The co-variability of the two fields in the MIMO-AE shared nonlinear latent space can be condensed into an index, termed the MIMO-AE index. We use a transfer learning approach to train a MIMO-AE on the combined dataset of 100 years of output from a historical simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model version 1 and a segment of observational data. We further use Long Short-Term Memory networks to assess sub-seasonal predictability of SC-PRECIP using the MIMO-AE index. We find that the MIMO-AE index provides enhanced predictability of SC-PRECIP for a lead-time of up-to four months as compared to Niño 3.4 index and the El Niño Southern Oscillation Longitudinal Index.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SCILLA Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS) airborne data

The Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS) provides measurements of bulk aerosol size distributions, which are crucial for studying aerosol-cloud interactions. The instrument sampled through two different inlets: an isokinetic inlet and a counter-flow virtual impactor (CVI) inlet. Data were collected to help improve climate and earth systems models, characterize atmospheric conditions, and validate satellite observations and climate simulations.

Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer↗

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial‐climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH 4 fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH 4 processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial‐functional group‐based CH 4 module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH 4 fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH 4 production—and CH 4 concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant‐mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH 4 transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH 4 substrate and CH 4 production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH 4 fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high‐carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deforestation reshapes land-surface energy-flux partitioning

Land-use and land-cover change significantly modify local land-surface characteristics and water/energy exchanges, which can lead to atmospheric circulation and regional climate changes. In particular, deforestation accounts for a large portion of global land-use changes, which transforms forests into other land cover types, such as croplands and grazing lands. Many previous efforts have focused on observing and modeling land–atmosphere–water/energy fluxes to investigate land–atmosphere coupling induced by deforestation. However, interpreting land–atmosphere–water/energy-flux responses to deforestation is often complicated by the concurrent impacts from shifts in land-surface properties versus background atmospheric forcings. In this study, we used 29 paired FLUXNET sites, to improve understanding of how deforested land surfaces drive changes in surface-energy-flux partitioning. Each paired sites included an intact forested and non-forested site that had similar background climate. We employed transfer entropy, a method based on information theory, to diagnose directional controls between coupling variables, and identify nonlinear cause–effect relationships. Transfer entropy is a powerful tool to detective causal relationships in nonlinear and asynchronous systems. The paired eddy covariance flux measurements showed consistent and strong information flows from vegetation activity (gross primary productivity (GPP)) and physical climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, air temperature) to evaporative fraction (EF) over both non-forested and forested land surfaces. More importantly, the information transfers from radiation, precipitation, and GPP to EF were significantly reduced at non-forested sites, compared to forested sites. We then applied these observationally constrained metrics as benchmarks to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). ELM predicted vegetation controls on EF relatively well, but underpredicted climate factors on EF, indicating model deficiencies in describing the relationships between atmospheric state and surface fluxes. Moreover, changes in controls on surface energy flux partitioning due to deforestation were not detected in the model. We highlight the need for benchmarking model simulated surface-energy fluxes and the corresponding causal relationships against those of observations, to improve our understanding of model predictability on how deforestation reshapes land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of sea ice leads on sea salt aerosols and atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic

Abstract. The processes contributing to Arctic cold-season (November–April) sea salt aerosols (SSAs) remain uncertain. Observations from coastal Alaska suggest that emissions from open leads in sea ice, which are not included in climate models, may play a dominant role. Their Arctic-wide significance has not yet been quantified. Here, we create an emission parameterization of SSAs from leads by combining satellite data of lead area (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) product) and a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to quantify pan-Arctic SSA emissions from leads during the cold season from 2002 to 2008 and to predict their impacts on atmospheric chemistry, evaluating the results of our simulated SSAs against in situ observations. The AMSR-E product detects large leads with certainty (> 3 km in size), and, hence, our study is limited to quantifying emissions from large leads. Lead emissions vary seasonally and interannually. Simulated total monthly SSA emissions increase by 1.1 %–1.8 % (≥60° N latitude) and 5.6 %–7.5 % (≥75° N) for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. SSA concentrations primarily increase at the location of leads, where standard model concentrations are low. GEOS-Chem overestimates SSA concentrations at Arctic sites compared to ground observations, even when lead emissions are not included, suggesting underestimation of SSA sinks and/or uncertainties in SSA emissions from blowing snow and the open ocean. Multi-year monthly mean surface bromine atom (Br) concentrations increase by 2.8 %–8.8 % due to SSAs from leads for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. Changes in ozone concentrations are negligible. While leads contribute < 10 % to Arctic-wide SSA emissions in the years 2002–2008, these emissions occur in regions of low background aerosol concentrations. Leads may increase in frequency under future climate change, which could increase SSA emissions from leads.

Emme, Erin J. (ORCID:0000000268406352)↗

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗