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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing Neural Network Based Models for Simulating Dynamical Systems

Dynamical systems see widespread use in natural sciences like physics, biology, and chemistry, as well as engineering disciplines such as circuit analysis, computational fluid dynamics, and control. For simple systems, the differential equations governing the dynamics can be derived by applying fundamental physical laws. However, for more complex systems, this approach becomes exceedingly difficult. Data-driven modeling is an alternative paradigm that seeks to learn an approximation of the dynamics of a system using observations of the true system. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in applying data-driven modeling techniques to solve a wide range of problems in physics and engineering. Here this article provides a survey of the different ways to construct models of dynamical systems using neural networks. In addition to the basic overview, we review the related literature and outline the most significant challenges from numerical simulations that this modeling paradigm must overcome. Based on the reviewed literature and identified challenges, we provide a discussion on promising research areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Analysis of the Effect of Vehicle Platooning on the Optimal Control of a Heavy Duty Engine Thermal System

One promising method for reducing fuel consumption and emissions, particularly in heavy duty trucks, is platooning. As the distance between vehicles decreases, the following vehicles will experience less aerodynamic drag on the front of the vehicle. However, reducing the velocity of the air contacting the front of the vehicle could have adverse effects on the temperature of the engine. To compensate for this effect, the energy consumption of the engine cooling system might increase, ultimately limiting the overall improvements obtained with platooning. Understanding the coupling between drag reduction and engine cooling load requirement is key for successfully implementing platooning strategies. Additionally, in a Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) environment, where information of the future engine load becomes available, the operation of the cooling system can be optimized in order to achieve the maximum fuel consumption reduction. In this paper, a control-oriented physics-based model for the engine cooling loop of a Volvo engine is developed and validated against road data. Starting from the validated model, an optimal control problem for the coolant system is formulated considering the tradeoff between the tracking of the engine temperature setpoint and the corresponding fuel consumption under different trailing distances. To compare the coolant system performance, Dynamic Programming (DP) is used to determine the global optimal solution for the coolant system actuator. The coupling between optimal cooling system operation and reduction in ram air are evaluated by comparing the results obtained from the DP under different platooning conditions against the unrestricted scenario. In addition, the paper analyzes the changes in the tradeoff between fuel consumption and setpoint tracking for different vehicle distances. This analysis will provide useful insight on the sensitivity of the coolant system controller calibration to the platoon distance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart Contract Architectures and Templates for Blockchain-based Energy Markets (V.1.0)

Within the field of Transactive Energy Systems (TES), there is an active need for tools that can support and accelerate the development of these new grid solutions. Among the many tools available, blockchain stands out as a viable instrument that can help researchers develop decentralized, autonomous, and tamper-resistant grid applications. In this work, we explore the use of smart contracts (SCs), a subset of blockchain technology, and analyze their applicability to facilitating the implementation of TES solutions. In particular, we focus on presenting areas of opportunity and potential drawbacks, along with use cases that can benefit from this technology building upon previous research developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and other research organizations. This work builds upon the fundamentals of TES and smart contract technology to develop a series of software templates that can be used by industry to build TES-oriented grid solutions. These templates are intended to be platform agnostic and take into consideration the unique properties of SCs and distributed ledger storage mechanisms to ensure actual code implementations remain aware of the limitations of the technology. The proposed templates have the potential to enable software architects to mix and match components to satisfy their application requirements, thereby reducing the number of resources required to implement blockchain-based solutions. These templates are divided into two main components—data and behavioral models. The data models are intended to help software engineers represent the underlying grid objects along with their properties in a ledger-based storage system. The behavioral models are used to describe the processes and actions that actors within a system must perform to achieve a given outcome such as registering an asset, placing a bid, and performing bid clearances. These two components are documented in a Unified Modeling Language (UML) format and are intended for use in SC-based implementations, with special behavioral considerations to account for the asynchronous properties of the underlying ledger and the typical execution model of smart contracts. Finally, future research ideas and potential extensions to this work are discussed. In particular, known limitations and potential improvements of the developed product are identified and expected to be addressed in future revisions of the template model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entanglement engineering of optomechanical systems by reinforcement learning

Entanglement is fundamental to quantum information science and technology, yet controlling and manipulating entanglement—so-called entanglement engineering—for arbitrary quantum systems remains a formidable challenge. There are two difficulties: the fragility of quantum entanglement and its experimental characterization. We develop a model-free deep reinforcement-learning (RL) approach to entanglement engineering, in which feedback control together with weak continuous measurement and partial state observation is exploited to generate and maintain desired entanglement. We employ quantum optomechanical systems with linear or nonlinear photon–phonon interactions to demonstrate the workings of our machine-learning-based entanglement engineering protocol. In particular, the RL agent sequentially interacts with one or multiple parallel quantum optomechanical environments, collects trajectories, and updates the policy to maximize the accumulated reward to create and stabilize quantum entanglement over an arbitrary amount of time. The machine-learning-based model-free control principle is applicable to the entanglement engineering of experimental quantum systems in general.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Non-Intrusive Inference Reduced Order Model for Fluids Using Deep Multistep Neural Network

In this effort we propose a data-driven learning framework for reduced order modeling of fluid dynamics. Designing accurate and efficient reduced order models for nonlinear fluid dynamic problems is challenging for many practical engineering applications. Classical projection-based model reduction methods generate reduced systems by projecting full-order differential operators into low-dimensional subspaces. However, these techniques usually lead to severe instabilities in the presence of highly nonlinear dynamics, which dramatically deteriorates the accuracy of the reduced-order models. In contrast, our new framework exploits linear multistep networks, based on implicit Adams–Moulton schemes, to construct the reduced system. The advantage is that the method optimally approximates the full order model in the low-dimensional space with a given supervised learning task. Moreover, our approach is non-intrusive, such that it can be applied to other complex nonlinear dynamical systems with sophisticated legacy codes. We demonstrate the performance of our method through the numerical simulation of a two-dimensional flow past a circular cylinder with Reynolds number Re = 100. The results reveal that the new data-driven model is significantly more accurate than standard projection-based approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Co-Optimized Machine Learned Manifolds for Modeling Chemically Reacting Flows

Chemically reacting flows play a key role in a wide range of engineered systems, from chemical and polymer processing to combustion-based energy conversion technologies. Simulations of these flows involve solving a coupled set of partial differential equations for mass, momentum, energy, and all relevant chemical species in the system. Chemical reaction pathways may be extremely complex and involve hundreds or more intermediate species, with reactions that occur over timescales varying by several orders of magnitude - presenting a significant numerical stiffness challenge. The combination of these factors makes simulation of chemically reacting flows vastly more expensive than nonreactive simulations, and often makes direct solution of the governing equations intractable. It is necessary to apply lower-fidelity models in place of the detailed governing equations in order to reduce computational cost to enable reacting flow simulation tools to be used in the engineering design process. Many of the models employed for this purpose are based on reducing the dimension of the thermochemical state, motivated by the observation that the observed thermochemical states in a system lie on a low-dimensional manifold in thermochemical state space. This behavior occurs due to the fast equilibration of certain reactive and transport processes, and physics-based manifold models rely on idealized assumptions about the balance of timescales and the way in which chemistry and transport are coupled. In this work, we apply a novel method for data-driven manifold-based modeling that can leverage data from high-fidelity reacting flow simulations to improve model accuracy in cases where the physics-based modeling assumptions break down. The approach is designed to be broadly applicable across chemically reacting flow systems but is applied here to turbulent combustion modeling.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing data-based modeling with low life cycle GHG emissions algae biofuels for engine optimization

Aquatic microalgae are a highly promising feedstock for the production of biocrude and tailored biofuels, with distinct advantages over traditional terrestrial crops, such as reduced land use and avoidance of food production competition. However, unlocking their full potential requires the development of biofuels with low life cycle greenhouse emissions biofuels, such as algae biofuels, which can significantly reduce the environmental impact of the transportation systems without requiring a complete overhaul of existing engine technology. In this study, we employ cutting-edge data-based AI modeling techniques to optimize the performance of heavy-duty engines, with a focus on transitioning towards biofuels with low life cycle greenhouse emissions biofuels. Our methodology offers significant advantages over traditional sweep testing, enabling efficient and accurate optimization of engine performance with minimal time and resources consumption. Our findings demonstrate the potential of utilizing this approach, with up to 55% NOx emissions reductions and up to 2% reduction in fuel consumption compared to the baseline optimized point. Moving forward, we plan to utilize a 30% blend of algae biofuels with diesel fuel, with the ultimate goal of achieving up to 60% lifecycle GHG emissions. Lastly, we plan to compare the results with 100% renewable biodiesel to add an additional dimension of investigating the impact of fuel chemistry on engine optimization. Overall, this study underscores the vital importance of biofuels for reducing the carbon footprint of the transportation sector and supporting a sustainable future. By harnessing the power of data-based AI modeling with low life cycle greenhouse emissions biofuels, we can accelerate the adoption of more environmentally friendly transportation systems and reduce their impact on the planet. Our findings contribute to this transition and offer insights for developing efficient and effective strategies for addressing global climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a reactor system prognosis model with physics-guided machine learning

Autonomous control systems provide recommendations to help operators in decision-making during plant operations ranging from normal operation to accident management. An important step of autonomous control is prognosis. In nuclear engineering domain, prognosis is the process of predicting future conditions of a system or equipment based on present signs and symptoms of a fault. The prognosis model allows predicting future reactor states for possible candidate control strategies so that the outcomes can be evaluated to determine the best control strategy. The prognosis model requires representing direct relationships between the symptoms and the predictions. In nuclear engineering, computational simulations are approximate representations of the operation of the real system. However, prognosis with computational simulations requires high computation power and time due to possible large number of scenarios. Necessary computation resources can be reduced with machine learning (ML) approach for fast predictions by building a surrogate function using the simulation data. A critical issue is, ML models are ignorant of physical knowledge, and these models approximate statistical relationships between the system variables. This ignorance can produce results that are inconsistent with physical laws, even if an optimal result is achieved from a mathematical point of view. Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) is an approach to tackle this issue. Here, this work formulates and illustrates a framework to guide development and assessment of the ML-based prognosis model for autonomous control systems. The development of the prognosis model considers the training of a ML model which consists of optimizing many aspects of the ML approach. The assessment of the prognosis model considers training data limitations and uncertainties of the ML approach. Prognosis models with standalone ML and PGML are developed and assessed on the loss-of-flow scenario of Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The results indicate that PGML based prognosis model has the best performance compared to other prognosis models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Turbulence radiation coupling in boundary layers of heavy-duty diesel engines

The lack of accurate submodels for in-cylinder radiation and heat transfer has been identified as a key shortcoming in developing truly predictive, physics-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that can be used to develop combustion systems for advanced high-efficiency, low-emissions engines. Recent measurements of wall layers in engines show discrepancies of up to 100% with respect to standard CFD boundary-layer models. And recent analysis of in-cylinder radiation based on the most recent spectral property databases and high-fidelity radiative transfer equation (RTE) solvers has shown that at operating pressures and exhaust-gas recirculation levels typical of modern heavy-duty compression-ignition engines, radiative emission can be as high as 40% of the wall heat losses, that molecular gas radiation (mainly CO2 and H2O) can be more important than soot radiation, and that a significant fraction of the emitted radiation can be reabsorbed before reaching the walls. That is, radiation not only contributes to heat losses, but also changes the in-cylinder temperature distribution, which in turn affects combustion and emissions. The goal of this research is to develop models that explicitly account for the potentially strong coupling between radiative and turbulent boundary layer heat transfer. For example, for optically thick conditions, a simple diffusion model might be formulated in terms of an absorption-coefficient-dependent turbulent Prandtl number.

Sircar, Arpan↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Review and Qualitative Analysis of Micro-Combined Heat and Power Modeling Approaches

Concurrent production of electrical and thermal energy from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) device is an attractive tool to address the growing energy needs of the planet. Micro CHP (µCHP) systems can reduce a building’s primary energy consumption, reduce carbon footprint, and enhance resiliency. Modeling of the µCHP helps understand the system from multiple perspectives and helps discover errors earlier, improves impact analysis and simulation of system solutions for ease of integration with the building. Consequently, there is a need for analysis of the impact of µCHP modeling approach on its reliability and flexibility. The primary objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the art models in the µCHP space with a focus towards internal combustion engine as the primary mover (PM) and limit the study to system modeling, calibration, and validation methodologies. Based on the analysis, recommendations for further model considerations and refinements are presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multilayered Network Models for Security: Enhancing System Security Engineering with Orchestration

Security engineering approaches can often focus on a particular domain—physical security, cyber security, or personnel security, for example. Yet, security systems engineering consistently faces challenges requiring socio-technical solutions to address evolving and dynamic complexity. While some drivers of this complexity stem from complex risk environments, innovative adversaries, and disruptive technologies, other drivers are endogenous and emerge from the interactions across security engineering approaches. In response, INCOSE's Systems Security Working Group identified the need to better coordinate “disparate security solutions [that] operate independently” as one of eleven key concepts in their IS21 FuSE Security Roadmap. From this perspective, this need for “security orchestration” aligns with the perspective that security is a property that emerges from interactions within complex systems. Current efforts at Sandia National Laboratories are developing a systems security engineering approach that describes high consequence facility (HCF) security as a multidomain set of interacting layers. The result is a multilayered network (MLN)-based approach that captures the interactions between infrastructure, physical components, digital components, and humans in nuclear security systems. This article will summarize the MLN-based approach to HCF security and describe two preliminary results demonstrating potential benefits from incorporating interactions across disparate security solutions. Here, leveraging the logical structure of networks, this MLN model-based approach provides an example of how security orchestration provides enhanced systems security engineering solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Toward A High-Performance Emulation Platform for Brain-Inspired Intelligent Systems Exploring Dataflow-Based Execution Model and Beyond

Brain-inspired computing is a novel computing technology based on neural morphological engineering, which draws lessons from methods of human brain information processing and storage. Combining with the high-performance computing (HPC) platform, they constitute the foundation of general artificial intelligence. However, current brain HPC platforms generally suffer from slow speed, poor scalability, and high energy consumption, which severely restrain its potential and circumscribe the development of general artificial intelligence. The dataflow model was first proposed in the 1970s, providing a novel idea for the development of HPC. In addition, the dataflow model shares similar information processing mechanisms with human's neural system, which makes dataflow models naturally suit the emulation of brain-inspired computing. Based on the contemporary progress of the dataflow model, the Codelet model was proposed. Through a fine-grained asynchronous program execution and resource allocation, the Codelet model successfully realized the distributed computing on the heterogeneous system, effectively improved the computing power and speed, and open up a new path to overcome the shortcomings of the existing high-performance computing technology. We propose a dataflow-based emulation platform, aiming at providing high-performance computing technology support for general brain-inspired intelligent system, as well as using characteristics of dataflow models to fully explore the potential of brain-inspired intelligence. As an example, we will select a convolutional neural network (LeNet5) that already has a spectacular user base to initially verify the superiority and feasibility of our proposal.

brain-inspired intelligent system↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Modeling of Full Converter Adjustable-speed Pumped Storage Hydropower (FC AS-PSH)

Full converter adjustable-speed pumped storage hydropower (FC AS-PSH) technology, as one of advanced-PSH technology, is developed from wind turbine technology. By making the synchronous machine connect to the grid through a full-size converter, FC AS-PSH has a wider adjustment range of speed and a better reactive power control capability compared with a doubly-fed asynchronous generator AS-PSH technology. When it plays as an energy backup in the power system, FC AS-PSH can provide a much faster response than conventional-PSH (C-PSH) which makes this technology provide better ancillary service for a high renewable penetrated system. In this paper, the dynamic modeling of FC AS-PSH is fully studied. We develop a detailed model of this technology in the IEEE 14-bus system based on GE Positive Sequence Load Flow (PSLF) platform. Especially, the first governor model is developed based on the Engineer’s Program Control Language (EPCL) user-defined model in this platform. All operation modes are validated and studied under a system contingency. Besides, comparison cases between FC AS-PSH and C-PSH are studied to show advantages providing from FC AS-PSH when it works with renewable energy.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electronic structure factors and the importance of adsorbate effects in chemisorption on surface alloys

The chemisorption energy is an integral aspect of surface chemistry, central to numerous fields such as catalysis, corrosion, and nanotechnology. Electronic-structure-based methods such as the Newns-Anderson model are therefore of great importance in guiding the engineering of material surfaces with optimal properties. However, existing methods are inadequate for interpreting complex, multi-metallic systems. Herein, we introduce a physics-based chemisorption model for alloyed transition metal surfaces employing primarily metal d-band properties that accounts for perturbations in both the substrate and adsorbate electronic states upon interaction. Importantly, we show that adsorbate-induced changes in the adsorption site interact with its chemical environment leading to a second-order response in chemisorption energy with the d-filling of the neighboring atoms. We demonstrate the robustness of the model on a wide range of transition metal alloys with O, N, CH, and Li adsorbates yielding a mean absolute error of 0.13 eV versus density functional theory reference chemisorption energies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗