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At least 109 records · Page 6

Identification and Control of Aircrafts using Multiple Models and Adaptive Critics

We compared two possible implementations of local linear models for control: one approach is based on a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the dynamics followed by a set of linear models operating at each cluster. Therefore the gating function is hard (a single local model will represent the regional dynamics). This simplifies the controller design since there is a one to one mapping between controllers and local models. The second approach uses a soft gate using a probabilistic framework based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (also called a dynamic mixture of experts). In this approach several models may be active at a given time, we can expect a smaller number of models, but the controller design is more involved, with potentially better noise rejection characteristics. Our experiments showed that the SOM provides overall best performance in high SNRs, but the performance degrades faster than with the GMM for the same noise conditions. The SOM approach required about an order of magnitude more models than the GMM, so in terms of implementation cost, the GMM is preferable. The design of the SOM is straight forward, while the design of the GMM controllers, although still reasonable, is more involved and needs more care in the selection of the parameters. Either one of these locally linear approaches outperform global nonlinear controllers based on neural networks, such as the time delay neural network (TDNN). Therefore, in essence the local model approach warrants practical implementations. In order to call the attention of the control community for this design methodology we extended successfully the multiple model approach to PID controllers (still today the most widely used control scheme in the industry), and wrote a paper on this subject. The echo state network (ESN) is a recurrent neural network with the special characteristics that only the output parameters are trained. The recurrent connections are preset according to the problem domain and are fixed. In a nutshell, the states of the reservoir of recurrent processing elements implement a projection space, where the desired response is optimally projected. This architecture trades training efficiency by a large increase in the dimension of the recurrent layer. However, the power of the recurrent neural networks can be brought to bear on practical difficult problems. Our goal was to implement an adaptive critic architecture implementing Bellman s approach to optimal control. However, we could only characterize the ESN performance as a critic in value function evaluation, which is just one of the pieces of the overall adaptive critic controller. The results were very convincing, and the simplicity of the implementation was unparalleled.

Principe, Jose C.↗

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for CFD Calculations: Theory and Implementation

Simulation codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation resulting in numerical error. Some examples include, numerical methods utilizing grids and finite-dimensional basis functions, particle methods using a finite number of particles. These same simulation codes also often contain sources of uncertainty, for example, uncertain parameters and fields associated with the imposition of initial and boundary data,uncertain physical model parameters such as chemical reaction rates, mixture model parameters, material property parameters, etc.

CFD↗

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Behavior of Low-Amplitude Power System Point-on-Wave Measurements

The power grid is undergoing massive changes to ensure resiliency and reliability in a more decentralized world. Distributed energy resources are becoming a prominent source of generation, potentially leading to a lack of centralized generation sources. Due to these new behaviors and system topologies, it is important to install measurement devices that are 1) accurate and 2) self-aware of their measurement quality. In this paper, a residential-scale microgrid is used to generate voltage and current waveforms, captured by Verivolt and National Instruments measurement equipment. A least-squares approach is used to separate the “clean” signals from the noise. Finally, Gaussian mixture modeling is used to approximate noise distributions, and it is shown these higher-order distribution estimates are a better fit to voltage and current noise profiles than single-mode Gaussian estimates.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Swing of the Pendulum: The Chemodynamics of the Local Stellar Halo Indicate Contributions from Several Radial Merger Events

We find that the chemical abundances and dynamics of APOGEE and GALAH stars in the local stellar halo are inconsistent with a scenario in which the inner halo is primarily composed of debris from a single massive, ancient merger event, as has been proposed to explain the Gaia-Enceladus/Gaia Sausage (GSE) structure. The data contain trends of chemical composition with energy that are opposite to expectations for a single massive, ancient merger event, and multiple chemical evolution paths with distinct dynamics are present. We use a Bayesian Gaussian mixture model regression algorithm to characterize the local stellar halo, and find that the data are fit best by a model with four components. We interpret these components as the Virgo Radial Merger (VRM), Cronus, Nereus, and Thamnos; however, Nereus and Thamnos likely represent more than one accretion event because the chemical abundance distributions of their member stars contain many peaks. Although the Cronus and Thamnos components have different dynamics, their chemical abundances suggest they may be related. We show that the distinct low- and high-α halo populations from Nissen & Schuster are explained by VRM and Cronus stars, as well as some in situ stars. Because the local stellar halo contains multiple substructures, different popular methods of selecting GSE stars will actually select different mixtures of these substructures, which may change the apparent chemodynamic properties of the selected stars. We also find that the Splash stars in the Solar region are shifted to higher v $\phi$ and slightly lower [Fe/H] than previously reported.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disaggregating Customer-Level Behind-the-Meter PV Generation Using Smart Meter Data and Solar Exemplars

Customer-level rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. In most cases, PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), and only the net demand is recorded. Therefore, the native demand and PV generation are unknown to utilities. Separating native demand and solar generation from net demand is critical for improving grid-edge observability. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for disaggregating customer-level BTM PV generation using low-resolution but widely available hourly smart meter data. The proposed approach exploits the strong correlation between monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands and the high similarity among PV generation profiles. First, a joint probability density function (PDF) of monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands is constructed for customers without PVs, using Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM). Deviation from the constructed PDF is utilized to probabilistically assess the monthly solar generation of customers with PVs. Then, to identify hourly BTM solar generation for these customers, their estimated monthly solar generation is decomposed into an hourly timescale; to do this, we have proposed a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based technique that utilizes hourly typical solar exemplars. Leveraging the strong monthly native demand correlation and high PV generation similarity enhances our approach's robustness against the volatility of customers’ hourly load and enables highly-accurate disaggregation. Furthermore, the proposed approach has been verified using real native demand and PV generation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

G-Mapper: Learning a Cover in the Mapper Construction

The Mapper algorithm is a visualization technique in topological data analysis (TDA) that outputs a graph reflecting the structure of a given dataset. However, the Mapper algorithm requires tuning several parameters in order to generate a “nice” Mapper graph. This paper focuses on selecting the cover parameter. We present an algorithm that optimizes the cover of a Mapper graph by splitting a cover repeatedly according to a statistical test for normality. Our algorithm is based on G-means clustering, which searches for the optimal number of clusters in 𝑘-means by iteratively applying the Anderson–Darling test. Our splitting procedure employs a Gaussian mixture model to carefully choose the cover according to the distribution of the given data. In conclusion, experiments for synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our algorithm generates covers so that the Mapper graphs retain the essence of the datasets, while also running significantly faster than a previous iterative method.

G-means clustering↗

Estimating Higher-Order Moments Using Symmetric Tensor Decomposition

In this paper, we consider the problem of decomposing higher-order moment tensors, i.e., the sum of symmetric outer products of data vectors. Such a decomposition can be used to estimate the means in a Gaussian mixture model and for other applications in machine learning. The dth-order empirical moment tensor of a set of p observations of n variables is a symmetric d-way tensor. Our goal is to nd a low-rank tensor approximation comprising r $\ll$ p symmetric outer products. The challenge is that forming the empirical moment tensor costs O(pn d ) operations and O(n d ) storage, which may be prohibitively expensive; additionally, the algorithm to compute the low-rank approximation costs O(n d ) per iteration. Our contribution is avoiding formation of the moment tensor, computing the low-rank tensor approximation of the moment tensor implicitly using O(pnr) operations per iteration and no extra memory. This advance opens the door to more applications of higher-order moments since they can now be efficiently computed. We present numerical evidence of the computational savings and show an example of estimating the means for higher-order moments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of lithology: Vegetation mixes in multispectral images

Discrimination and identification of lithologies from multispectral images is discussed. Rock/soil identification can be facilitated by removing the component of the signal in the images that is contributed by the vegetation. Mixing models were developed to predict the spectra of combinations of pure end members, and those models were refined using laboratory measurements of real mixtures. Models in use include a simple linear (checkerboard) mix, granular mixing, semi-transparent coatings, and combinations of the above. The use of interactive computer techniques that allow quick comparison of the spectrum of a pixel stack (in a multiband set) with laboratory spectra is discussed.

Adams, J. B.↗

Overview of Predictive Simulation Capability Development for Crater Evolution and Ejecta in Continuum/Rarefied Flows

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial plume surface interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element is focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In this paper, an overview and brief status on one area of capability development through this GCD PSI project, capturing the effects of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets, is presented with respect to capability enhancements, predictive tool maturation, and validation of the Loci/GGFS tool against PSI data in Martian and Lunar environments. Axisymmetric modeling, overset mesh/moving mesh, and multiple-species mixture modeling capabilities are verified against Loci/CHEM, and a demonstration of the capabilities is presented for the Apollo Lunar Module.

Andrew Weaver↗

Numerical schemes for a multi-species BGK model with velocity-dependent collision frequency

Here, we consider a kinetic description of multi-species gas mixture modeled with Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK) collision operators, in which the collision frequency varies not only in time and space but also with the microscopic velocity. In this model, the Maxwellians typically used in standard BGK operators are replaced by a generalization of such target functions, which are defined by a variational procedure. In this paper we present a numerical method for simulating this model, which uses an Implicit-Explicit (IMEX) scheme to minimize a certain potential function, mimicking the Lagrange functional that appears in the theoretical derivation. We show that theoretical properties such as conservation of mass, total momentum and total energy as well as positivity of the distribution functions are preserved by the numerical method, and illustrate its usefulness and effectiveness with numerical examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAXS Assistant: Automated SAXS analysis for structural discovery in biologics and polymeric nanoparticles

Small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful technique for assessing macromolecular structure. High-throughput SAXS is limited by the time-consuming and, at times, subjective nature of SAXS data interpretation. Here, we present SAXS Assistant, a Python-based script that streamlines SAXS data analysis to extract features for machine learning (ML) and key structural parameters, including the Guinier radius of gyration (R g ), pair distance distribution function (PDDF)-derived R g , maximum particle dimension (D max ), and Kratky plots. The script builds upon BioXTAS RAW and validates reliability via Guinier/PDDF R g agreement, an important indicator of well-measured data sets. For assistance in D max estimation, a multilayer perceptron regressor was trained with 1940 data files from the Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank. The model achieved a test set performance R 2 = 0.90 and mean absolute error = 11.7 Å. Training exclusively with experimental data translates analyses from researchers, including experts in the field, to the ML model, which helps assess D max estimations from PDDF. Gaussian mixture model clustering was implemented to classify profiles into structural classes based on entries in the Small Angle Scattering Biological Data Bank. Users may therefore assess the similarity between experimental samples and known biomolecular shapes within the mapped repository entries. This probabilistic clustering aids in quantifying information from Kratky and generating shape-descriptive features. SAXS Assistant accelerates SAXS data analysis through enforced quality control, ML-ready outputs, and flags for low-confidence results. In addition to providing the ability to analyze large data sets at high throughput, this tool is versatile and may serve researchers in both biological and synthetic polymer research fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hanford low-activity waste glass composition-temperature-melt viscosity relationships

This study developed a model for predicting viscosity of alkali-alumino-borosilicate glass melts as functions of composition and temperature. The model is based on a total of 3935 viscosity-temperature data from 574 glasses with viscosity values ranging from 2.53 to 7260 Poise (P) in the temperature range of 900–1260°C. Several different model forms were surveyed, including those based on Arrhenius, Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann, Avramov-Milchev, and Mauro-Yue-Ellison-Gupta-Allen. For each of these models, combinations of the temperature-independent parameters were fitted to composition. It was found that generally fitting more than one temperature-independent parameter as functions of composition resulted in overfitting. The Avramov-Milchev-based model was found to best represent the Hanford low-activity waste glass melt viscosity data based on model fit and validation statistics. A 21-term partial quadratic mixture model was recommended for use. This model predicts melt viscosity with a root-mean square error of .1736 ln(P), which is similar to the error in viscosity measurements from replicate glass analyses of .1383 ln(P). Viscosity was found to be most increased by SiO 2 > Al 2 O 3 > ZrO 2 > SnO 2 and most decreased by Li 2 O > Na 2 O > B 2 O 3 > CaO > K 2 O > MgO, at temperatures from 900 to 1260°C.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Particle Filtering for Model-Based Anomaly Detection in Sensor Networks

A novel technique has been developed for anomaly detection of rocket engine test stand (RETS) data. The objective was to develop a system that postprocesses a csv file containing the sensor readings and activities (time-series) from a rocket engine test, and detects any anomalies that might have occurred during the test. The output consists of the names of the sensors that show anomalous behavior, and the start and end time of each anomaly. In order to reduce the involvement of domain experts significantly, several data-driven approaches have been proposed where models are automatically acquired from the data, thus bypassing the cost and effort of building system models. Many supervised learning methods can efficiently learn operational and fault models, given large amounts of both nominal and fault data. However, for domains such as RETS data, the amount of anomalous data that is actually available is relatively small, making most supervised learning methods rather ineffective, and in general met with limited success in anomaly detection. The fundamental problem with existing approaches is that they assume that the data are iid, i.e., independent and identically distributed, which is violated in typical RETS data. None of these techniques naturally exploit the temporal information inherent in time series data from the sensor networks. There are correlations among the sensor readings, not only at the same time, but also across time. However, these approaches have not explicitly identified and exploited such correlations. Given these limitations of model-free methods, there has been renewed interest in model-based methods, specifically graphical methods that explicitly reason temporally. The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) in a Linear Dynamic System approach assumes that the multi-dimensional test data is a mixture of multi-variate Gaussians, and fits a given number of Gaussian clusters with the help of the wellknown Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters thus learned are used for calculating the joint distribution of the observations. However, this GMM assumption is essentially an approximation and signals the potential viability of non-parametric density estimators. This is the key idea underlying the new approach.

Solano, Wanda↗

Comments on the SURFplus reactive burn model

The SURFplus reactive burn model is intended for heterogeneous solid HE that produce an excess amount of carbon. It utilizes a fast hotspot reaction (SURF model) plus a second slow reaction for the energy release from carbon clustering. The fast reaction dominates shock initiation, though the fast rate parameters are slightly affected by the late energy release from the slow reaction. The slow reaction has a significant affect on propagating detonation waves. Propagating detonation waves are characterized by the curvature effect; i.e., detonation speed $D_n$ as function of the local front curvature κ. The $D_n(κ)$ curves have a qualitative different shape. This results from the sensitivity of the slope of the $D_n(κ)$ curve to the reaction-zone width up to the sonic point, and the sonic point moving as κ increases from the end of the slow reaction to the neighborhood of the end of the fast reaction. For PBX 9502, the steep slope for small curvature is determined by the slow reaction, while the lower slope for larger curvature is determined by the fast reaction rate in the high detonation pressure regime. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In section 2 we review the assumptions of the Shaw and Johnson carbon cluster model used by the SURFplus model for the slow reaction. Section 3 describes in detail the mixture model for a partly burned HE. The form of the slow rate used by the SURFplus model is described in section 4. We conclude with a brief discussion of applying a burn model with 2 rates to either a metalized or a composite PBX.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Important changes in microwave scattering properties of young snow-covered sea ice as indicated from dielectric modelling

Winter measurements of the properties of young snow-covered fast ice are input into a mixture model to calculate the complex dielectric constant. Large changes in the electromagnetic properties of the medium occur over the 46 day period of measurements. This early evolution of the surface is shown to have an important impact upon predicted radar backscattering properties at GHz frequencies. This has consequences for the unambiguous identification of young ice forms from synthetic aperture or side-looking airborne radar images.

Drinkwater, M. R.↗

effect of ambient pressure on the behavior of single-component fuels in a gasoline multi-hole injector

The injection characteristics of neat ethanol and pure isooctane are studied under different ambient pressure and temperature conditions. Injection underflash-boiling conditions can enhance liquid atomization and evaporation, providing the possibility of improvement in the fuel/air mixing. These superheated conditions often introduce phenomena that are not taken into account in the standard modeling of sprays for engine applications. The present work proposes a numerical investigation of the behavior of Engine Combustion Network's 8-hole spray-G injector, starting at the subcooled nominal condition and reducing the ambient pressure at constant low temperature to reach the flare flash-boiling condition. To initialize the properties of the injected fuel, the flow in the nozzle is simulated with a Eulerian approach, handling the two phases with a mixture model and the phase change, due to cavitation and flash boiling, with the Homogenous Relaxation Model. A map of the mixture's kinematic and thermal behavior is obtained at the interface between the injector and the chamber to initialize the Lagrangian simulations. A literature-based vaporization model is implemented to obtain the proper description of the characteristic features of a multi-hole spray under super-heated conditions, like plume-plume interaction. The numerical representation of the spray is validated in terms of penetration and radial spreading on DBI images, reproducing the light attenuation profiles caused by the presence of the liquid spray. Simulations show that coupled nozzle flow and spray calculations capture the spray morphology and shape better compared to calculations performed without considering the nozzle flow simulation details, especially under flare flash conditions.

Nocivelli, Lorenzo↗