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At least 109 records · Page 6

Gaussian membership functions are most adequate in representing uncertainty in measurements

In rare situations, like fundamental physics, we perform experiments without knowing what their results will be. In the majority of real-life measurement situations, we more or less know beforehand what kind of results we will get. Of course, this is not the precise knowledge of the type 'the result will be between alpha - beta and alpha + beta,' because in this case, we would not need any measurements at all. This is usually a knowledge that is best represented in uncertain terms, like 'perhaps (or 'most likely', etc.) the measured value x is between alpha - beta and alpha + beta.' Traditional statistical methods neglect this additional knowledge and process only the measurement results. So it is desirable to be able to process this uncertain knowledge as well. A natural way to process it is by using fuzzy logic. But, there is a problem; we can use different membership functions to represent the same uncertain statements, and different functions lead to different results. What membership function do we choose? In the present paper, we show that under some reasonable assumptions, Gaussian functions mu(x) = exp(-beta(x(exp 2))) are the most adequate choice of the membership functions for representing uncertainty in measurements. This representation was efficiently used in testing jet engines to airplanes and spaceships.

Kreinovich, V.↗

Real-time Identification and Control of Satellite Signal Impairments Solution and Application of the Stratonovich Equation Part 1. Theoretical Development

As satellite communications systems become both more complex and reliant with respect to their operating environment, it has become imperative to be able to identify, during real-time operation, the onset of one or more impairments to the quality of overall communications system integrity. One of the most important aspects to monitor of a satellite link operating within the Earth's atmosphere is the signal fading due to the occurrence of rain and/or phase scintillations. This, of course, must be done in the presence of the associated measurement uncertainty or potentially faulty measurement equipment such as in the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) experiment. In the present work, an approach originally suggested in 1991, and apparently still considered iconoclastic, will be significantly developed and applied to the satellite communications link on which the deleterious composite signal fade is the result of one or many component fade mechanisms. Through the measurement (with the attendant uncertainty or 'error' in the measurement) of such a composite fading satellite signal, it is desired to extract the level of each of the individual fading mechanisms so they can be appropriately mitigated before they impact the overall performance of the communications network. Rather than employing simple-minded deterministic filtering to the real-time fading, the present approach is built around all the models and/or descriptions used to describe the individual fade components, including their dynamic evolution. The latter is usually given by a first-order Langevin equation. This circumstance allows the description of the associated temporal transition probability densities of each of the component processes. By using this description, along with the real-time measurements of the composite fade (along with the measurement errors), one can obtain statistical estimates of the levels of each of the component fading mechanisms as well as their predicted values into the future. This is all accomplished by the use of the well-known Stratonovich integro-differential equation that results from the model of the measured signal fade that is also tailored to adaptively adjust the values of the parameters used in the statistical models of the individual fade mechanisms. Three examples of increasing complexity are addressed and solved for the iterative determination of fade component levels from the measured composite signal fade in the presence of measurement error and, in the last case, with uncertainty in the model parameters.

Countermeasure↗

Bottom-up and Top-Down Uncertainty Quantification for Measurements

Several recent papers address improved uncertainty quantification (UQ) for measurements used in nuclear safeguards. This paper reviews progress and presents new results for bottom-up (first principles) and top-down (empirical) UQ for safeguards, where the main quantitative measure of uncertainty is the total measurement error standard deviation (SD), which includes both random and systematic error components. The five main UQ topics addressed here include: (1) impact of making data-driven choices in SD estimation; (2) use of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for both bottom-up and top-down UQ; (3) computational calibration; (4) revisions to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM), and (5) critique of a recently-suggested “Unified Theory of Measurement Errors and Uncertainties.”

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Application of in-flight thrust determination uncertainty

A numerical example is given of a previously proposed methodology for the evaluation of in-flight thrust measurement uncertainty, using data extracted from a performance report comparing two different missile prototypes under a variety of flight conditions. Attention is given to the data for the AGM-68B Air Launched Cruise Missile, which is powered by the F107 dual-spool, mixed flow turbofan engine. Assessments are made of the definition of the measurement process, instrumentation error estimation, the propagation of errors to thrust calculation, mathematical model errors, the in-flight thrust error component, and correction to standard conditions. It is concluded that in-flight thrust measurement uncertainty limits can be evaluated from measurement system error analysis results and test data for the missile evaluation process presently described.

Adams, G. R.↗

Simulating the Benesov Bolide Flowfield and Spectrum at Altitudes of 47 and 57 km

This paper develops a computational fluid dynamics capability for simulating the radiative emission from a meteor shock-layer and wake to an external observer. The developed capability includes the impact of radiation and ablation on the meteor flowfield, where coupled radiation accounts for the impact of radiation on the flowfield energy equations and coupled ablation accounts for the injection of ablation species from the meteoroid surface into the ow. This capability includes updated flowfield chemistry and nonequilibrium radiation models, which are compiled from the literature. To provide a level of validation for this capability, the Benesov spectral measurements are considered. Although the meteoroid was likely fragmented at the 47 and 57 km altitudes considered, and the measurement uncertainty is roughly ±50%, these measurements represent the best available spectral measurements for a relatively large (meter-class) bolide. To determine the equivalent meteoroid diameter to simulate, the continuum component of the spectrum in the 570 to 610 nm range is considered. This range is dominated by air emission from the high pressure and temperature shock-layer in front of the meteoroid, which is simulated with a relatively small uncertainty (because of the abundance of relevant shock tube measurements) and sensitive to the equivalent meteoroid diameter. This allows an equivalent diameter between 0.62 to 0.9 m to be determined, based on comparisons between measurements and simulations in the 570 to 610 nm range. The range of equivalent diameters is due to the various meteoroid geometries considered, where increasing the bluntness decreases the required diameter. Applying these diameters to simulations at 47 and 57 km results in simulated spectra that compare within 30% of the measured values, considering the wavelength integrated values between 400 and 650 nm. This agreement is well within the estimated measurement uncertainty of ±50%. All major spectral features are captured by the simulations. This agreement provides a level of validation for the developed model that has not been previously available.

Luminous efficiency↗

Exploring Oxidation in the Remote Free Troposphere: Insights From Atmospheric Tomography (ATom)

Earth's atmosphere oxidizes the greenhouse gas methane and other gases, thus determining their lifetimes and oxidation products. Much of this oxidation occurs in the remote, relatively clean free troposphere above the planetary boundary layer, where the oxidation chemistry is thought to be much simpler and better understood than it is in urban regions or forests. The NASA airborne Atmospheric Tomography study (ATom) was designed to produce cross sections of the detailed atmospheric composition in the remote atmosphere over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during four seasons. As part of the extensive ATom data set, measurements of the atmosphere's primary oxidant, hydroxyl (OH), and hydroperoxyl (HO2) are compared to a photochemical box model to test the oxidation chemistry. Generally, observed and modeled median OH and HO2 agree to within combined uncertainties at the 2σ confidence level, which is ~±40%. For some seasons, this agreement is within ~±20% below 6-km altitude. While this test finds no significant differences, OH observations increasingly exceeded modeled values at altitudes above 8 km, becoming ~35% greater, which is near the combined uncertainties. Measurement uncertainty and possible unknown measurement errors complicate tests for unknown chemistry or incorrect reaction rate coefficients that would substantially affect the OH and HO2 abundances. Future analysis of detailed comparisons may yield additional discrepancies that are masked in the median values.

atmosphere's primary oxidant, hydroxyl (OH), and h↗

Analysis of FRAM Measurements to Establish Methodology Uncertainty

Qualification measurements were performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on a variety of measurement standards. These measurements will be used to qualify the Fixed-Energy, Response Function Analysis with Multiple Efficiency (FRAM) code with a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector for use at ORNL. Measured items include uranium isotopic standards, U 3 O 8 line sources, and a uranium tetrafluoride source. The 235 U enrichment was estimated using the FRAM isotopic analysis software for each source and compared with the declared isotopic values.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Analysis of ISOCS Measurements to Establish Methodology Uncertainty

Qualification measurements were performed at the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on a variety of measurement standards. These measurements will be used to qualify the In-Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS) measurement method with a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector for use at ORNL. Measured items include uranium isotopic standards, filter papers coated with uranium oxide (U 3 O 8 ), U 3 O 8 line sources, and a uranium tetrafluoride (UF 4 ) source. The 235 U mass was estimated using the ISOCS calibration software for each source and compared with the declared isotope mass value.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Validation of Temperature Measurements from the Airborne Raman Ozone Temperature and Aerosol Lidar During SOLVE

The Airborne Raman Ozone, Temperature and Aerosol Lidar (AROTEL) participated in the recent Sage III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) by providing profiles of aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), ozone and temperature with high vertical and horizontal resolution. Temperatures were derived from just above the aircraft to approximately 60 kilometers geometric altitude with a reported vertical resolution of between 0.5 and 1.5 km. The horizontal footprint varied from 4 to 70 km. This paper explores the measurement uncertainties associated with the temperature retrievals and makes comparisons with independent, coincident, measurements of temperature. Measurement uncertainties range from 0.1 K to approximately 4 K depending on altitude and integration time. Comparisons between AROTEL and balloon sonde temperatures retrieved under clear sky conditions using both Rayleigh and Raman scattered data showed AROTEL approximately 1 K colder than sonde values. Comparisons between AROTEL and the Meteorological Measurement System (MMS) on NASA's ER-2 show AROTEL being from 2-3 K colder for altitudes ranging from 14 to 18 km. Temperature comparisons between AROTEL and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's model showed differences of approximately 1 K below approximately 25 km and a very strong cold bias of approximately 12 K at altitudes between 30 and 35 km.

Burris, John↗

Planar Doppler Velocimetry for Large-Scale Wind Tunnel Testing

Recently, Planar Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) has been shown by several laboratories to offer an attractive means for measuring three-dimensional velocity vectors everywhere in a light sheet placed in a flow. Unlike other optical means of measuring flow velocities, PDV is particularly attractive for use in large wind tunnels where distances to the sample region may be several meters, because it does not require the spatial resolution and tracking of individual scattering particles or the alignment of crossed beams at large distances. To date, demonstrations of PDV have been made either in low speed flows without quantitative comparison to other measurements, or in supersonic flows where the Doppler shift is large and its measurement is relatively insensitive to instrumental errors. Moreover, most reported applications have relied on the use of continuous-wave lasers, which limit the measurement to time-averaged velocity fields. This work summarizes the results of two previous studies of PDV in which the use of pulsed lasers to obtain instantaneous velocity vector fields is evaluated. The objective has been to quantitatively define and demonstrate PDV capabilities for applications in large-scale wind tunnels that are intended primarily for the production testing of subsonic aircraft. For such applications, the adequate resolution of low-speed flow fields requires accurate measurements of small Doppler shifts that are obtained at distances of several meters from the sample region. The use of pulsed lasers provides the unique capability to obtain not only time-averaged fields, but also their statistical fluctuation amplitudes and the spatial excursions of unsteady flow regions such as wakes and separations. To accomplish the objectives indicated, the PDV measurement process is first modeled and its performance evaluated computationally. The noise sources considered include those related to the optical and electronic properties of Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) arrays and to speckle effects associated with coherent illumination from pulsed lasers. The signal noise estimates are incorporated into the PDV signal analysis process and combined with computed scattering signals using a Mie scattering theory for polydisperse smoke particles. The relevant parameters incorporate a range of practical aerodynamic test conditions and facility sizes. The results define the optimum instrument configurations, show that the expected signal levels from a practical PDV system are sufficiently large to allow its useful application in large facilities, and show that the expected velocity measurement uncertainties are small compared to the mean velocities of interest for most subsonic, large-scale wind tunnel testing. Experimental studies using several experimental bench-top setups are then described that validate the physics of the PDV model and to calibrate its computed results. The validated model allows estimates of the uncertainties of PDV measurements and a complete definition of the PDV capabilities to be made with sufficient confidence to decide the viability of PDV for large-scale wind tunnel applications.

McKenzie, Robert L.↗

3D Material Response Analysis of PICA Pyrolysis Experiments

Primarily interested in improving ablation modeling for use in inverse reconstruction of flight environments on ablative heat shields. Ablation model is essentially a component of the heat flux sensor, so model uncertainties lead to measurement uncertainties. Non-equilibrium processes have been known to be significant in low density ablators for a long time, but increased accuracy requirements of the reconstruction process necessitates incorporating this physical effect. Attempting to develop a pyrolysis model for implementation in material response based on the PICA data produced by Bessire and Minton. Pyrolysis gas species molar yields as a function of temperature and heating rate. Several problems encountered while trying to fit Arrhenius models to the data led to further investigation of the experimental setup.

Oliver, Brandon A.↗

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗

Atmospheric Entry Heat Flux Sensor Calibration and Flight Data Analysis

- Recent NASA missions have included total heat flux sensors (THFS) embedded in the thermal protection system (TPS) to measure the combined convective and radiative heating during atmospheric entry. These measurements are key to fundamental entry science and mission design. - The THFSs for the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite on the Mars 2020 entry vehicle and the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) technology demonstration mission were passively cooled Schmidt–Boelter gauges. - As presented at IPPW 2021, THFS calibration is notoriously difficult and includes several sources of measurement uncertainty [1]. - Recent work has been conducted to understand and quantify the measurement uncertainty in the MEDLI2 and LOFTID Schmidt-Boelter THFSs.

R. A. Miller↗

Study of a Proposed fissionTPC Measurement of 233 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) Cross Section Ratio

A review of the available 233 U( n, f )/ 235 U( n, f ) cross section ratio data compared to the ENDF evaluation in the fast neutron energy range, 0.1–20 MeV, shows that discrepancies exist between some of the various measurements and the evaluation. The discrepancies vary and a function of incident neutron energy and range between 1–5%. In this document we review two potential options for performing new measurements of the cross section ratio to potentially resolve these discrepancies. The two options are compared and contrasted in terms of measurement accuracy and cost. The first option would utilize the fissionTPC, which was designed specifically to achieve measurement uncertainties of better than 1% to resolve a similar data–evaluation discrepancy in the 239 Pu( n, f ) cross section. While this would seem to be an ideal option in this case also, there are challenges. The fissionTPC is a complex instrument and the cost of maintenance and operations are significant. Furthermore, some of the fissionTPC equipment is nearing the end of its useful life which presents a risk to completion of a measurement campaign. The second option is to use a dual-fission chamber, which is the more traditional approach to these types of measurements. The cost is estimated to be about half that of a fissionTPC measurement, while the much simpler design of the detector reduces overall risk. The trade-off is the measurement uncertainty, which would be on order of 1–3% with a careful measurement and analysis. This uncertainty however may not be good enough to fully resolve the discrepancies. The objective of a new measurement would be the improvement in the ENDF evaluation with the end goal of improving the accuracy of models and simulations at the end of the nuclear data pipeline. An understanding of the sensitivity of these models to the data uncertainties would help guide the choice of measurement techniques.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using Reliability to Meet Z540.3's 2 percent Rule

NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) undertook implementation of ANSI/NCSL Z540.3-2006 in October 2008. Early in the implementation, KSC identified that the largest cost driver of Z540.3 implementation is measurement uncertainty analyses for legacy calibration processes. NASA, like other organizations, has a significant inventory of measuring and test equipment (MTE) that have documented calibration procedures without documented measurement uncertainties. This paper provides background information to support the rationale for using high in-tolerance reliability as evidence of compliance to the 2% probability of false acceptance (PFA) quality metric of ANSI/NCSL Z540.3-2006 allowing use of qualifying legacy processes. NASA is adopting this as policy and is recommending NCSL International consider this as a method of compliance to Z540.3. Topics covered include compliance issues, using end-of-period reliability (EOPR) to estimate test point uncertainty, reliability data influences within the PFA model, the validity of EOPR data, and an appendix covering "observed" versus "true" EOPR.

Mimbs, Scott M.↗

Development and status of data quality assurance program at NASA Langley research center: Toward national standards

As part of a continuing effort to re-engineer the wind tunnel testing process, a comprehensive data quality assurance program is being established at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The ultimate goal of the program is routing provision of tunnel-to-tunnel reproducibility with total uncertainty levels acceptable for test and evaluation of civilian transports. The operational elements for reaching such levels of reproducibility are: (1) statistical control, which provides long term measurement uncertainty predictability and a base for continuous improvement, (2) measurement uncertainty prediction, which provides test designs that can meet data quality expectations with the system's predictable variation, and (3) national standards, which provide a means for resolving tunnel-to-tunnel differences. The paper presents the LaRC design for the program and discusses the process of implementation.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗

Preliminary investigation of an uncertainty budget for uranium isotope ratio analysis using a liquid sampling—atmospheric pressure glow discharge—orbitrap mass spectrometer system

The liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) ionization source has proven to be an effective analysis tool for making uranium isotope ratio measurements when coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometers, such as the Orbitrap. While previous studies have shown the capabilities of the LS-APGD for isotope ratio determination, a systematic evaluation of the measurement uncertainty of the technique has not been conducted. To this end, the International Standards Organizations (ISO) guidelines to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM analysis) have been applied to generate an uncertainty budget. For this work, a preliminary assessment derived from the GUM analysis was performed. The uncertainty in the instrument blank determination has been identified as a primary factor contributing to measurement uncertainty for the LS-APGD-Orbitrap method. These findings for the specific test case of uranium isotopic analysis will be invaluable in applications across the breadth of isotope ratio mass spectrometry performed on this unique instrumental platform.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗