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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning assisted prediction of the Young’s modulus of compositionally complex alloys

We identify compositionally complex alloys (CCAs) that offer exceptional mechanical properties for elevated temperature applications by employing machine learning (ML) in conjunction with rapid synthesis and testing of alloys for validation to accelerate alloy design. The advantages of this approach are scalability, rapidity, and reasonably accurate predictions. ML tools were implemented to predict Young’s modulus of refractory-based CCAs by employing different ML models. Our results, in conjunction with experimental validation, suggest that average valence electron concentration, the difference in atomic radius, a geometrical parameter λ and melting temperature of the alloys are the key features that determine the Young’s modulus of CCAs and refractory-based CCAs. The Gradient Boosting model provided the best predictive capabilities (mean absolute error of 6.15 GPa) among the models studied. Our approach integrates high-quality validation data from experiments, literature data for training machine-learning models, and feature selection based on physical insights. It opens a new avenue to optimize the desired materials property for different engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vickers hardness prediction from machine learning methods

Abstract The search for new superhard materials is of great interest for extreme industrial applications. However, the theoretical prediction of hardness is still a challenge for the scientific community, given the difficulty of modeling plastic behavior of solids. Different hardness models have been proposed over the years. Still, they are either too complicated to use, inaccurate when extrapolating to a wide variety of solids or require coding knowledge. In this investigation, we built a successful machine learning model that implements Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) to predict hardness and uses the mechanical properties of a solid (bulk modulus, shear modulus, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio) as input variables. The model was trained with an experimental Vickers hardness database of 143 materials, assuring various kinds of compounds. The input properties were calculated from the theoretical elastic tensor. The Materials Project’s database was explored to search for new superhard materials, and our results are in good agreement with the experimental data available. Other alternative models to compute hardness from mechanical properties are also discussed in this work. Our results are available in a free-access easy to use online application to be further used in future studies of new materials at www.hardnesscalculator.com .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Predicting Multipactor Susceptibility in Planar RF Structures

Multipactor discharge is a persistent challenge in high-power microwave (HPM) and accelerator systems, where secondary electron avalanches can cause heating, vacuum degradation, and failure. This work presents the first supervised machine learning (ML) framework for multipactor prediction, trained on high-fidelity 3D Particle-in-Cell (PIC) simulation data in planar geometries. The model maps operational, geometric, and material-dependent secondary electron yield (SEY) parameters to the time-averaged electron growth rate, enabling rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts. Among the models evaluated, tree-based ensemble methods such as Random Forest and Extra Trees demonstrate superior generalization to unseen materials compared to neural networks such as multilayer perceptron (MLP). Performance metrics, including Intersection over Union (IoU), Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM), and Pearson correlation, show close agreement with simulation benchmarks. Principal Component Analysis attributes generalization limits to material feature-space disjointedness.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

DOE STTR Phase I Final Report Report: Machine-learning Based Prediction of Thermal Limits for Conjugated Organic Materials

The SCANN-DT Phase I STTR project led by NLM Photonics and partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) sought to apply machine learning techniques based on graph neural networks (GNNs) towards the prediction of decomposition temperatures (Td) of organic semiconductors, based on prior work on bond dissociation energy (BDE) prediction as implemented in NREL’s ALFABET prediction tool. Using a curated set of experimental decomposition energies, the project examined GNN-based, classical quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) based on DFT calculations, and combinations of both methods to predict Td. While the best MAEs in Td achieved were near 40°C, below project targets, the project led to improvements in the ALFABET model, improvements in cloud-based implementations of NWChem software, and a substantial dataset of calculations on medium-sized conjugated organic molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applications of Machine Learning to Predicting Core-collapse Supernova Explosion Outcomes

Most existing criteria derived from progenitor properties of core-collapse supernovae are not very accurate in predicting explosion outcomes. We present a novel look at identifying the explosion outcome of core-collapse supernovae using a machine-learning approach. Informed by a sample of 100 2D axisymmetric supernova simulations evolved with F ornax , we train and evaluate a random forest classifier as an explosion predictor. Furthermore, we examine physics-based feature sets including the compactness parameter, the Ertl condition, and a newly developed set that characterizes the silicon/oxygen interface. With over 1500 supernovae progenitors from 9-27 M ⊙ , we additionally train an autoencoder to extract physics-agnostic features directly from the progenitor density profiles. We find that the density profiles alone contain meaningful information regarding their explodability. Both the silicon/oxygen and autoencoder features predict the explosion outcome with ≈90% accuracy. In anticipation of much larger multidimensional simulation sets, we identify future directions in which machine-learning applications will be useful beyond the explosion outcome prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Study on the Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Adsorption Energies for Ring and Chain Species on Metal Catalyst Surfaces

Computation of adsorption and transition state energies for a large number of surface intermediates for numerous active site models pose significant computational overhead in computational screening of catalysts. Machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to predict part of these energies. To predict the energies, ML models need to be fed appropriate metal and species descriptors. For complex surface chemistries, the structures of the intermediate species can vary greatly. In this paper, working with the hydrodeoxygenation of succinic acid on six different metal surfaces, we have studied the effect of linear and non-linear ML models used along with pen-and-paper based species descriptors and two categories of metal descriptors on two different categories of intermediate species: chain and ring. More specifically, our computations include the prediction of chain species when trained on only chain species and also when trained on both chain and ring species. Similar computations were performed for predictions of ring species. In each case, results of linear ML models were compared with kernel based non-linear models. Our results indicate that ring species data does not improve the prediction of chain species. Similarly, chain species data does not improve the prediction of ring species. The use of non-linear ML models, however, did help to minimize the prediction errors compared to the linear models. Furthermore, the study also shows that electronic or adsorption energy based metal descriptors along with bond count based species fingerprints can achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.2 eV for complex chain molecules when used with an appropriate machine learning model.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using soil library hyperspectral reflectance and machine learning to predict soil organic carbon: Assessing potential of airborne and spaceborne optical soil sensing

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key variable to determine soil functioning, ecosystem services, and global carbon cycles. Spectroscopy, particularly optical hyperspectral reflectance coupled with machine learning, can provide rapid, efficient, and cost-effective quantification of SOC. However, how to exploit soil hyperspectral reflectance to predict SOC concentration, and the potential performance of airborne and satellite data for predicting surface SOC at large scales remain relatively underknown. Here, this study utilized a continental-scale soil laboratory spectral library (37,540 full-pedon 350–2500 nm reflectance spectra with SOC concentration of 0–780 g·kg –1 across the US) to thoroughly evaluate seven machine learning algorithms including Partial-Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Ridge, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) along with four preprocessed spectra, i.e. original, vector normalization, continuum removal, and first-order derivative, to quantify SOC concentration. Furthermore, by using the coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere radiative transfer model, we simulated twelve airborne and spaceborne hyper/multi-spectral remote sensing data from surface bare soil laboratory spectra to evaluate their potential for estimating SOC concentration of surface bare soils. Results show that LSTM achieved best predictive performance of quantifying SOC concentration for the whole data sets (R 2 = 0.96, RMSE = 30.81 g·kg –1 ), mineral soils (SOC ≤ 120 g·kg –1 , R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 10.60 g·kg –1 ), and organic soils (SOC > 120 g·kg –1 , R 2 = 0.78, RMSE = 62.31 g·kg –1 ). Spectral data preprocessing, particularly the first-order derivative, improved the performance of PLSR, RF, Ridge, KNN, and ANN, but not LSTM or CNN. We found that the SOC models of mineral and organic soils should be distinguished given their distinct spectral signatures. Finally, we identified that the shortwave infrared is vital for airborne and spaceborne hyperspectral sensors to monitor surface SOC. This study highlights the high accuracy of LSTM with hyperspectral/multispectral data to mitigate a certain level of noise (soil moisture <0.4 m 3 ·m –3 , green leaf area < 0.3 m 2 ·m –2 , plant residue <0.4 m 2 ·m –2 ) for quantifying surface SOC concentration. Forthcoming satellite hyperspectral missions like Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) have a high potential for future global soil carbon monitoring, while high-resolution satellite multispectral fusion data can be an alternative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning based prediction of airflow maldistribution in air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers

Flow maldistribution is a common challenge in heat exchanger (HX) design and particularly important for air-to-refrigerant geometries where capacity losses can approach 65%. This has a major impact on central air conditioning systems, as compact duct design motivates the use of A-type HXs which are known to be affected by airflow maldistribution. Because velocity profiles are difficult to predict, components are often oversized leading to increased material cost, system footprint, and refrigerant charge. Several studies detail airflow maldistribution for individual HXs and packages, but findings cannot always be extrapolated to new designs. In this work, a machine learning (ML) based flow profile prediction framework is developed and applied to two common package configurations: (i) A-type and (ii) U-type HXs, across a broad range of HX geometries and flow rates. Porous media CFD simulations are validated against independent data for both package types as well as comprehensive in house measurements for a finless geometry with shape optimized non-round tubes, which validates the framework for new heat transfer surfaces. The ML models are trained on the porous media CFD simulations, predicting volumetric flow rate (VFR) within 1.1% and 1.9% with maximum relative L 2 norm errors of 0.48 and 0.65, respectively, while also delivering 10 5 speed up factor compared to full porous media CFD. HX level simulations show an up to 9% reduction in heat transfer from flow maldistribution, with greater losses occurring at smaller half apex angles. This framework enables rapid and highly accurate prediction of airflow maldistribution induced capacity degradation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed machine learning to predict solvatochromic parameters of designer solvents with case studies in CO 2 and lignin dissolution

The polarity of solvents plays a critical role in various research applications, particularly in their solubilities. Polarity is conveniently characterized by the Kamlet-Taft parameters that is, the hydrogen bonding acidity (α), the basicity (β), and the polarizability (π*). Obtaining Kamlet-Taft parameters is very important for designer solvents, namely ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs). However, given the unlimited theoretical number of combinations of ionic pairs in ILs and hydrogen-bond donor/acceptor pairs in DESs, experimental determination of their Kamlet-Taft parameters is impractical. To address this, the present study developed two different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict Kamlet-Taft parameters for designer solvents using quantum chemically derived input features. The ML models developed in the present study showed accurate predictions with high R 2 and low RMSE values. Further, in the context of present interest in the circular bioeconomy, the relationship between the basicities and acidities of designer solvents and their ability to dissolve lignin and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is discussed. Our method thus guides the design of effective solvents with optimal Kamlet-Taft parameter values dissolving and converting biomass and CO 2 into valuable chemicals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Machine Learning to Predict Cloud Turbulent Entrainment–Mixing Processes

Different turbulent entrainment–mixing mechanisms between clouds and environment are essential to cloud–related processes; however, accurate representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models still poses a challenge. This study exploits the use of machine learning (ML) to address this challenge. Four ML (Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGB], eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression) are examined and compared. It is found that LGB performs best, and thus is selected to understand the impact of entrainment–mixing on microphysics using simulation data from Explicit Mixing Parcel Model. Compared with traditional parameterizations, the trained LGB provides more accurate microphysical properties (number concentration and cloud droplet spectral dispersion). The partial dependences of predicted microphysics on features exhibit a strong alignment with physical mechanisms and expectations, as determined by the interpreting method, thus overcoming the limitations of the “black box” scheme. The underlying mechanisms are that the smaller number concentration and larger spectral dispersion correspond to more inhomogeneous entrainment–mixing. Specifically, number concentration after entrainment–mixing is positively correlated with adiabatic number concentration and liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, and inversely correlated with adiabatic volume mean radius. Spectral dispersion after entrainment–mixing is negatively correlated with liquid water content affected by entrainment–mixing, turbulent dissipation rate and relative humidity of entrained air. Sensitivity analysis further suggests that number concentration is mainly determined by cloud microphysical properties whereas spectral dispersion is influenced by both cloud microphysical properties and environmental variables. The results indicate that the LGB scheme has the potential to enhance the representation of entrainment–mixing in weather/climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗