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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Urinary arsenic profiles and the risks of cancer mortality: A population-based 20-year follow-up study in arseniasis-endemic areas in Taiwan

Few studies investigated the association between chronic arsenic exposure and the mortality of cancers by estimating individual urinary arsenic methylation profiles. Therefore, we compared with the general population in Taiwan to calculate the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in arseniasis-endemic area of Taiwan from 1996 to 2010 and evaluated the dose-response relationships between environmental arsenic exposure indices or urinary arsenic profiles and the mortality of cause-specific cancer. A cohort of 1563 residents was conducted and collected their urine sample and information regarding arsenic exposure from a questionnaire. All-cause death was identified using the National Death Registry of Taiwan. Urinary arsenic profiles were measured using high performance liquid chromatography–hydride generator–atomic absorption spectrometry. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the mortality risks. In results, 193 all-site cancer deaths, and 29, 71, 43 deaths respectively for liver, lung and bladder cancers were ascertained. The SMRs were significantly high in arseniasis-endemic areas for liver, lung, and bladder cancers. People with high urinary InAs% or low DMA% or low secondary methylation index (SMI) were the most likely to suffer bladder cancer after adjusting other risk factors. Even stopping exposure to arsenic from the artesian well water, the mortality rates of the residents were higher than general population. Finally, urinary InAs%, DMA% and SMI could be the potential biomarkers to predict the mortality risk of bladder cancer. -- Highlights: ► The SMRs were significantly high in arseniasis-endemic areas for liver, lung, and bladder cancers. ► People with high urinary InAs% were the most likely to suffer bladder cancer. ► People with low DMA% or low SMI were the most likely to suffer bladder cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Geometric and Dosimetric Approach to Determine Probability of Late Cardiac Mortality in Left Tangential Breast Irradiation: Comparison Between Wedged Beams and Field-in-Field Technique

Purpose: To evaluate the probability of late cardiac mortality resulting from left breast irradiation planned with tangential fields and to compare this probability between the wedged beam and field-in-field (FIF) techniques and to investigate whether some geometric/dosimetric indicators can be determined to estimate the cardiac mortality probability before treatment begins. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, differential dose-volume histograms were calculated for the wedged beam and FIF plans, and the corresponding cardiac mortality probabilities were determined using the relative seriality model. As a comparative index of the dose distribution uniformity, the planning target volume (PTV) percentages involved in 97-103% of prescribed dose were determined for the two techniques. Three geometric parameters were measured for each patient: the maximal length, indicates how much the heart contours were displaced toward the PTV, the angle subtended at the center of the computed tomography slice by the PTV contour, and the thorax width/thickness ratio. Results: Evaluating the differential dose-volume histograms showed that the gain in uniformity between the two techniques was about 1.5. With the FIF technique, the mean dose sparing for the heart, the left anterior descending coronary artery, and the lung was 15% (2.5 Gy vs. 2.2 Gy), 21% (11.3 Gy vs. 9.0 Gy), and 42% (8.0 Gy vs. 4.6 Gy) respectively, compared with the wedged beam technique. Also, the cardiac mortality probability decreased by 40% (from 0.9% to 0.5%). Three geometric parameters, the maximal length, angle subtended at the center of the computed tomography slice by the PTV contour, and thorax width/thickness ratio, were the determining factors (p = .06 for FIF, and p = .10 for wedged beam) for evaluating the cardiac mortality probability. Conclusion: The FIF technique seemed to yield a lower cardiac mortality probability than the conventional wedged beam technique. However, although our study demonstrated that FIF technique improved the dose coverage of the PTV, the restricted number of patients enrolled and the short follow-up did not allow us to evaluate and compare the breast cancer survival rates of the patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.

black spruce↗
DOE OSTI2022

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort

Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

6-minute walk test↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2016

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

mortality↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integration of a Frost Mortality Scheme Into the Demographic Vegetation Model FATES

Frost is damaging to plants when air temperature drops below their tolerance threshold. The set of mechanisms used by cold-tolerant plants to withstand freezing is called “hardening” and typically take place in autumn to protect against winter damage. The recent incorporation of a hardening scheme in the demographic vegetation model FATES opens up the possibility to investigate frost mortality to vegetation. Previously, the hardening scheme was used to improve hydraulic processes in cold-tolerant plants. In this study, we expand upon the existing hardening scheme by implementing hardiness-dependent frost mortality into CLM5.0-FATES to study the impacts of frost on vegetation in temperate and boreal sites from 1950 to 2015. Our results show that the original freezing mortality approach of FATES, where each plant type had a fixed freezing tolerance threshold—an approach common to many other dynamic vegetation models, was restricted to predicting plant type distribution. The main results emerging from the new scheme are a high autumn and spring frost mortality, especially at colder sites, and increasing mid-winter frost mortality due to global warming, especially at warmer sites. We demonstrate that the new frost scheme is a major step forward in dynamically representing vegetation in ESMs by for the first time including a level of frost tolerance that is responding to the environment and includes some level of cost (implicitly) and benefit. By linking hardening and frost mortality in a land surface model, we open new ways to explore the impact of frost events in the context of global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Taxon-specific microbial growth and mortality patterns reveal distinct temporal population responses to rewetting in a California grassland soil

Abstract Microbial activity increases after rewetting dry soil, resulting in a pulse of carbon mineralization and nutrient availability. The biogeochemical responses to wet-up are reasonably well understood and known to be microbially mediated. Yet, the population level dynamics, and the resulting changes in microbial community patterns, are not well understood as ecological phenomena. Here, we used sequencing of 16S rRNA genes coupled with heavy water (H218O) DNA quantitative stable isotope probing to estimate population-specific rates of growth and mortality in response to a simulated wet-up event in a California annual grassland soil. Bacterial growth and mortality responded rapidly to wet-up, within 3 h, and continued throughout the 168 h incubation, with patterns of sequential growth observed at the phylum level. Of the 37 phyla detected in the prewet community, growth was found in 18 phyla while mortality was measured in 26 phyla. Rapid growth and mortality rates were measurable within 3 h of wet-up but had contrasting characteristics; growth at 3 h was dominated by select taxa within the Proteobacteria and Firmicutes, whereas mortality was taxonomically widespread. Furthermore, across the community, mortality exhibited density-independence, consistent with the indiscriminate shock resulting from dry-down and wet-up, whereas growth was density-dependent, consistent with control by competition or predation. Total aggregated growth across the community was highly correlated with total soil CO2 production. Together, these results illustrate how previously “invisible” population responses can translate quantitatively to emergent observations of ecosystem-scale biogeochemistry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduction in total and major cause-specific mortality from tobacco smoking cessation: a pooled analysis of 16 population-based cohort studies in Asia

Little is known about the time course of mortality reduction following smoking cessation in Asians who have smoking behaviours distinct from their Western counterparts. We evaluated the level of reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and lung cancer mortality by years since quitting smoking, in Asia. Using Cox regression, we analysed individual participant data (n = 709 151) from 16 prospective cohorts conducted in China, Japan, Korea/Singapore, and India/Bangladesh, separately by cohorts. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 108 287 deaths were ascertained—35 658 from CVD and 7546 from lung cancer. Among Asian men, a dose-response relationship of risk reduction in deaths from all causes, CVD and lung cancer was observed with an increase in years after smoking cessation. Compared with never smokers, however, all-cause and CVD mortality among former smokers remained elevated 10–14 years after quitting [multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25 (1.13–1.37) and 1.20 (1.02–1.41), respectively]. Lung cancer mortality stayed almost 2-fold higher than among never smokers 15–19 years after smoking cessation [1.97 (1.41–2.73)], particularly among former heavy smokers [2.62 (1.71–4.00)]. Women who quitted for ≥5 years retained a significantly elevated mortality from all causes, CVD and lung cancer. Overall patterns of the cessation-mortality associations were similar across countries. Our findings suggest that adverse effects of tobacco smoking persist for an extended time period, even for more than two decades, which is beyond the time windows defined in current clinical guidelines for risk assessment of lung cancer and CVD.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mortality predispositions of conifers across Western USA

Conifer mortality rates are increasing in North America, but the physiological mechanisms underlying this trend are still not well understood. We examined tree-ring based growth rates, stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios (d13C and d18O, respectively) of dying and surviving conifers at eight old-growth forest sites across a strong moisture gradient in the western USA to retrospectively investigate mortality predispositions. Compared to surviving trees, lower growth of dying trees was detected at least one decade prior to mortality at seven of the eight sites. Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) increased over time in both surviving and dying trees, with a weaker increase in dying trees at five of the eight sites. The relationship between iWUE and d18O was much stronger and steeper for surviving trees, suggesting an important hydraulic role in mortality. Carbon starvation was a strong correlate of conifer mortality based on a conceptual model incorporating growth, d13C, and d18O. Our results provide a direct link of mortality to growth constraints in western USA conifers.

Wang, Wenzhi↗
DOE OSTI2018

Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought: Belowground hydraulic failure during drought

From 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species’ diverse mortality patterns using post-drought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modeling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were not consistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of growing season whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance), and shallower rooting depths, were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.

carbon gain↗
DOE OSTI2016

Historical Trends in PM 2.5 -Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere

Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 -related premature mortality (PM 2.5 -mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM 2.5 -mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM 2.5 -mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM 2.5 -mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM 2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits, i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions. However, reductions in emissions of NH 3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NO x emission controls.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Grand Canyon Ecological Forecasting: Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor and Model Juniper Woodland Mortality in Grand Canyon National Park

Significant die-offs of the drought tolerant species Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) and one-seeded juniper (Juniperus monosperma) have been observed throughout central and northern Arizona, including Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP). As climate models project rising temperatures and continuous drought, land managers are concerned for the future of juniper in and around GCNP. This project incorporated data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and ocular samples of the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) in a random forest model to identify patterns between characteristics of the landscape and locations of juniper woodland mortality and to model areas subject to vulnerability. This study found no significant correlation between ocularly sampled juniper tree mortality and remotely sensed environmental variables used thus, accurately modeling mortality vulnerability in the future was not feasible. The ocular sampling, however, allows the partners at the GCNP’s Science & Resource Management Division to better understand areas of juniper tree woodland mortality and the relative amount of mortality in the park. Additionally, the areas of juniper tree mortality found in this project provide the partners with guidance for future field sampling.

Scarlet Jackson↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗