Externally pressurized gas-lubricated journal bearings with herringbone grooves - Load capacity and stability analysis
Eccentricity analysis to predict load capacity and stability
Fleming, D. P.↗
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Inferring the scrape-off layer heat flux width in a divertor with a low degree of axisymmetry
Plasma facing components (PFCs) in the next generation of tokamak devices will operate in challenging environments, with heat loads predicted to exceed 10 MWm -2 . The magnitude of these heat loads is set by the width of the channel, the ‘scrape-off layer’ (SOL), into which heat is exhausted, and can be characterised by an e-folding length scale for the decay of heat flux across the channel. It is expected this channel will narrow as tokamaks move towards reactor relevant conditions. Understanding the processes involved in setting the SOL heat flux width is imperative to be able to predict the heat loads PFCs must handle in future devices. Measurements of the SOL width are performed on the high-field spherical tokamak, ST40, using a newly commissioned infrared thermography system. With its high on-axis toroidal magnetic field (≥1.5 T) ST40 is uniquely positioned to investigate the influence of toroidal field on the heat flux width in spherical tokamaks, whilst also extending measurements of the SOL width in spherical tokamaks to increased poloidal field (≥0.3 T). Due to the divertor on ST40 having a low degree of axisymmetry, it is necessary for a set of radial measurements of the heat flux to be taken across the divertor, made possible using an automated toolchain that fully incorporates its 3D geometry. These radial profiles are combined with the magnetic geometry of the plasma to infer the width of the SOL, with both Eich and double exponential profiles of heat flux observed. A reduction in the heat flux is observed toroidally across part of the divertor, along with increased heat loads observed locally around the edges of the tiles. Future work in characterising the impact of tile misalignment and uncertainties in the reconstructed divertor magnetic geometry is required in order to further understand the observed heat flux patterns, as are additional investigations into the role potentially being played by an inhomogeneous sheath electric field.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Evaluation of a cost-effective loads approach
A shock spectra/impedance method for loads prediction is used to estimate member loads for the Viking Orbiter, a 7800-lb interplanetary spacecraft that has been designed using transient loads analysis techniques. The transient loads analysis approach leads to a lightweight structure but requires complex and costly analyses. To reduce complexity and cost a shock spectra/impedance method is currently being used to design the Mariner Jupiter Saturn spacecraft. This method has the advantage of using low-cost in-house loads analysis techniques and typically results in more conservative structural loads. The method is evaluated by comparing the increase in Viking member loads to the loads obtained by the transient loads analysis approach. An estimate of the weight penalty incurred by using this method is presented. The paper also compares the calculated flight loads from the transient loads analyses and the shock spectra/impedance method to measured flight data.
Garba, J. A.↗
Evaluation of a cost-effective loads approach
A shock spectra/impedance method for loads predictions is used to estimate member loads for the Viking Orbiter, a 7800-lb interplanetary spacecraft that has been designed using transient loads analysis techniques. The transient loads analysis approach leads to a lightweight structure but requires complex and costly analyses. To reduce complexity and cost, a shock spectra/impedance method is currently being used to design the Mariner Jupiter Saturn spacecraft. This method has the advantage of using low-cost in-house loads analysis techniques and typically results in more conservative structural loads. The method is evaluated by comparing the increase in Viking member loads to the loads obtained by the transient loads analysis approach. An estimate of the weight penalty incurred by using this method is presented. The paper also compares the calculated flight loads from the transient loads analyses and the shock spectra/impedance method to measured flight data.
Garba, J. A.↗
A survey of load methodologies for shuttle orbiter payloads
Loads methods currently being used to design shuttle orbiter payloads are summarized. Methods used for the design of payloads launched by expendable launch vehicles are described in historical perspective. Experiences gained from expendable launch vehicle payloads are used to develop methodologies for the space shuttle orbiter payloads. The objectives for the development of a new methodology for the shuttle payloads are to reduce the cost and schedule for the payload load analysis by decoupling the payload analysis from the launch vehicle to the maximum extent possible. Methods are described for payload member load estimation or obtaining upper bounds for dynamic loads, as well as load prediction or calculating actual transient member load time histories.
Chen, J. C.↗
A survey of load methodologies for shuttle orbiter payloads
Loads methods currently being used to design planetary spacecraft to be launched on the shuttle orbiter are summarized. Experiences gained from expendable launch vehicle payloads are used to develop methodologies for the space shuttle orbiter payloads. The objectives for the development of a new methodology for the shuttle payloads are to reduce the cost and schedule for the payload load analysis by decoupling the payload analysis from the launch vehicle to the maximum extent possible. Methods are described for payload member load estimation or obtaining upper bounds for dynamic loads, as well as load prediction or calculating actual transient member load time histories.
Chen, J. C.↗
Analysis and Evaluation of NASA's MK40B Six-Component Task Balance
The MK40B balance is NASA's newest balance of Task design. Its load range was optimized for use in the NASA Ames 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel. The balance was calibrated in 2019 in Calspan's Automatic Balance Calibration System. The data analysis was performed at the Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. First, bi-directional characteristics of the six gage outputs of the balance were assessed by applying a semi-empirical test to the calibration data. These tests indicated that four of the six gages have bi-directional characteristics. Therefore, the use of absolute value terms in the regression models of the calibration data is justified. Then, the machine calibration data was analyzed using both the Non-Iterative and the Iterative Method. Analysis results for the two methods were compared using the percent contributions, the calibration load residuals, the primary sensitivities, and the principle linear terms. These results confirmed that the two methods describe bi-directional characteristics of the balance gages correctly. In addition, it was concluded that the load prediction accuracies of the two methods are the same for all practical purposes.
wind tunnel balance↗
Controlled impact demonstration airframe bending bridges
The calibration of the KRASH and DYCAST models for transport aircraft is discussed. The FAA uses computer analysis techniques to predict the response of controlled impact demonstration (CID) during impact. The moment bridges can provide a direct correlation between the predictive loads or moments that the models will predict and what was experienced during the actual impact. Another goal is to examine structural failure mechanisms and correlate with analytical predictions. The bending bridges did achieve their goals and objectives. The data traces do provide some insight with respect to airframe loads and structural response. They demonstrate quite clearly what's happening to the airframe. A direct quantification of metal airframe loads was measured by the moment bridges. The measured moments can be correlated with the KRASH and DYCAST computer models. The bending bridge data support airframe failure mechanisms analysis and provide residual airframe strength estimation. It did not appear as if any of the bending bridges on the airframe exceeded limit loads. (The observed airframe fracture was due to the fuselage encounter with the tomahawk which tore out the keel beam.) The airframe bridges can be used to estimate the impact conditions and those estimates are correlating with some of the other data measurements. Structural response, frequency and structural damping are readily measured by the moment bridges.
Soltis, S. J.↗
A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data
Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.
Li, Han↗
Acoustics technologies for STOVL aircraft
State-of-the-art acoustic fatigue technologies that are relevant to supersonic Short Takeoff/Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft are investigated. Data and methods assessments of acoustic fatigue technologies for acoustic load predictions and stress response predictions are evaluated. Subsonic and supersonic jet noise generation mechanisms, axisymmetric and two-dimensional nozzles, and noise suppression methods are discussed. STOVL far field noise during hover, near field noise, and internal cockpit noise levels are predicted. Stress response prediction methods for acoustic, thermal, and maneuvering loads are addressed and the need for structural analysis methods with all three types of loads applied simultaneously is assessed.
Groen, David S.↗
Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas
Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
OC7 Project Phase II: Code Comparison and Experimental Validation of Hydroelastic Effects and Member-Level Loads in Floating Structures
This paper presents results from Phase II of the OC7 project, focusing on hydroelastic modeling and member-level load prediction for a flexible floating offshore structure. Numerical predictions from 11 academic and industrial partners are validated against experimental measurements obtained from a 1:70-scale test of the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. A comprehensive set of verification and validation cases is examined. The results demonstrate that hydrodynamic added mass has a significant impact on predicted elastic natural frequencies. Under regular wave excitation, the numerical models reproduce platform motions and mooring line tensions with good accuracy. Member-level loads are also predicted with reasonable accuracy. Some discrepancies are observed for potential-flow models not accounting for higher-order effects associated with the instantaneous wetted surface.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Q3 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment
This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q3: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis. • Benchmark between two first wall heat flux mapping methods, identify importance of various heat flux sources and physics impact of using fully coupled CESOL vs post-analysis evaluation. 2. Generate medium fidelity parametrized CAD. • Generate parametrized CAD components for the CAT example case via either user-defined modules called within the geometry generation or by defeatured/parametrized CAD, including DCLL blanket matched to divertor boundary and magnets. Define materials, labels, and boundary conditions for passing the mesh to CFD tools. 3. Demonstrate multiphysics magnet analysis. • Demonstrate magnet analysis workflow called from the FREDA workflow, and 4. Demonstrate nuclear analysis. • Add model to OpenFOAM and/or other codes possibly including Diablo to account for tritium diffusion in solids.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Q2 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment
This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q2: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis: $\circ$ Run CESOL with BOUT++/Hermes-3 and immersed boundary condition to directly map to wall: • Run BOUT++/Hermes-3 through the IPS workflow to find radial particle and energy diffusivities to match either the Eich or the physics-based scaling of the SOL heat flux width, and • Expand source of first wall heat flux to include charged particles, neutrals, and radiation from the core+edge. 2. Generate medium fidelity parametrized CAD: $\circ$ Develop the TRACER tool to read an existing CAD, regenerate the geometry based on vertex location and connectivity information, define vertex translation and parameters needed for scaling the CAD, and $\circ$ Utilize the FreeGS code to determine CAT PF coil placement, including minimizing the number of coils, coil current, and electromechanical stresses. 3. Utilize plasma loading for engineering analysis: $\circ$ Couple the plasma loading to input for OpenFOAM and demonstrate initial test of thermal analysis of CAT first wall loading with typical DCLL blanket component cooling boundary conditions. 4. Demonstrate nuclear analysis: $\circ$ Apply initial analysis of tritium transport in DCLL blanket by evaluating spatially resolved tritium generation rates, tritium diffusion and convection.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Q1 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment
This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q1: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis: $/circ$ Initially run CESOL with SOLPS and map heat flux using simple HEAT method: ▪ Generate SOLPS grid for CAT reference case, ▪ Implement and apply ‘lower’ fidelity method of using HEAT-like analytic method to map SOLPS heat flux from charged particles to first wall, and ▪ Provide initial heat flux + neutron loading for further engineering analysis. 2. Demonstrate multiphysics magnet analysis: $/circ$ Demonstrate validation of the Elmer workflow by comparing induced stresses due to EM forces generated by TF coils using multiple codes.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Externally pressurized gas-lubricated journal bearings with herringbone grooves - Load capacity and stability analysis.
A small eccentricity analysis was performed to predict load capacity and stability. Numerical results were obtained for a range of feeding parameter, pressure ratio, groove length and orifice recess volume for compressibility numbers from 0 to 50. These results were obtained from a digital computer program. Results showed that the addition of herringbone grooving to an externally pressurized bearing increases stability, but reduces load capacity at low compressibility numbers. A fully-grooved bearing is more stable than a partially-grooved bearing. Orifice recesses reduce stability, especially at high compressibility numbers.
Fleming, D. P.↗
Buckling of imperfect, anisotropic, ring-stiffened cylinders under combined loads
The objectives of this study is to develop an analysis to predict loads of ring-stiffened anisotropic cylinders subject to axial compression, torsion and internal pressure. This structure is modeled as a branched shell. A nonlinear axisymmetric prebuckling equilibrium state is assumed which is amenable to exact solution within each branch. Axisymmetric geometric imperfections are included. Buckling displacements are represented by a Fourier series in the circumferential coordinate and the finite element method in the axial coordinate. Application of Trefftz criterion to the second variation of the total potential energy leads to a nonlinear eigenvalue problem for the buckling load and mode. Results are presented for both unstiffened and ring-stiffened cylinders in the form of buckling interaction diagrams. Imperfections can cause an unexpected buckling mode in the ring web which would not occur for the perfect structure, and pressurization diminishes the benefit of adding rings to the unstiffened shell to increase the buckling load. The implementation of the analysis methodology into a structural sizing algorithm is discussed.
Ley, Robert P.↗
Loads Due to Controls at Transonic and Low Supersonic Speeds
Some results of recent experimental investigations at supersonic and transonic speeds are presented to show the present status in the estimation of load distributions on controls and adjacent wing surfaces resulting from the deflection of flap controls and spoiler controls. The results indicate that the development of methods for predicting loads associated with controls has not kept pace with the acquisition of experimental data. At low supersonic speeds sweeping the hinge line induces strong three-dimensional-flow characteristics which cannot be treated by the simplified methods previously developed for controls without sweep. At transonic speeds the estimation of loads associated with controls must usually be dependent upon experimental information inasmuch as the latest attempts to predict chordwise and spanwise loadings have met with only limited success.
West, F. E, Jr↗