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At least 109 records · Page 6

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Grid Impact Analysis of Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

This paper presents a grid impact analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. In this work, heavy-duty EVs have battery capacities high enough to provide a range of 250-500 miles on a single charge, such as long-haul trucks. Heavy-duty EVs will require extremely fast charging rates to reduce charging time and will induce very high charging loads (at the multiple-megawatt scale) if several vehicles charge at the same time. Therefore, analysis is needed to understand the impact of charging station loads on the electric power grid and set the baseline for developing mitigation plans and necessary system upgrades. We develop a systematic procedure to analyze the potential impact of the placement of charging stations on the grid. Charging load is modeled using a DC fast-charging station model. A voltage load sensitivity matrix approach is leveraged to investigate the challenges of placing charging stations on the feeder. Given the charging load profiles and suggested charging station locations, time-series simulations are performed on various connection points on the feeder to understand the impact. The analysis is performed on both the IEEE 34-bus system and a realistic feeder from California. Initial mitigation solutions are developed based on insights from this analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DRDMannTurb: A Python package for scalable, data-driven synthetic turbulence

Synthetic turbulence models (STMs) are used in wind engineering to generate realistic flow fields and are employed as inputs to industrial wind simulations. Examples include prescribing inlet conditions in large eddy simulations that model loads on wind turbines and tall buildings. We are interested in STMs capable of generating fluctuations based on prescribed second-moment statistics since such models can simulate environmental conditions that closely resemble on-site observations. To this end, the widely used Mann model (see Mann, 1994, 1998) is the inspiration for DRDMannTurb. The Mann model is described by three physical parameters: a magnitude parameter influencing the global variance of the wind field and corresponding to the Kolmogorov constant multiplied by the rate of viscous dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy to the two-thirds, αϵ 2/3 , a turbulence length scale parameter L, and a nondimensional parameter Γ related to the lifetime of the eddies. A number of studies, as well as international standards (e.g., those by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)), include recommended values for these three parameters with the goal of standardizing wind simulations according to observed energy spectra. Yet, having only three parameters, the Mann model faces limitations in accurately representing the diversity of observable spectra. This Python package enables users to extend the Mann model and more accurately fit field measurements through flexible neural network models of the eddy lifetime function. Following Keith et al. (2021), we refer to this class of models as Deep Rapid Distortion (DRD) models. DRDMannTurb also includes a general module implementing an efficient method for synthetic turbulence generation based on a domain decomposition technique. This technique is also described in Keith et al. (2021).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Heliostat Consortium: Gap Analysis on State of the Art in Wind Load Design

Wind loads are a major driver of heliostat cost. Standardized methods and tools are needed for a more detailed understanding of the static and dynamic loads of a heliostat design. This will enable cost reduction of wind-dependent heliostats to avoid unnecessarily conservative heliostat designs and increase field efficiency and reliability to reduce the risk of component failures due to high-wind events. Gaps related to wind load include lack of site characterization for wind measurements, insufficient critical load cases for heliostat design, insufficient understanding of turbulence impacts on heliostat tracking error, lack of knowledge on wind load under various heliostat array configurations, and underexplored heliostat field wind-load reduction and operating strategies. Recommended pathway forward is to develop wind load and site characterization guidelines for heliostat design and develop heliostat field wind-load models with optical performance impacts.

aerodynamics↗

Modeling and Energy Analysis of Refrigeration Systems in Supermarkets: A Case Study

Refrigeration systems are the single largest consumer of electricity in supermarkets, accounting for approximately 40–60% of total store electricity use. As supermarkets face increasing pressures to improve efficiency and reduce operational costs, understanding the energy performance of refrigeration systems in supermarkets has become essential. In this paper, we investigate the energy performance and patterns of the refrigeration system using field measurements in one supermarket. The compressor coefficient of performance (COP) averaged 4.5 during nighttime steady-state operation, providing a practical efficiency benchmark. We develop simple physical-based load models for the display cases in the supermarket, where the refrigeration system uses R404A. The results show the display case models achieve a good agreement with measured data, validating its utility for energy estimation during unoccupied hours. Finally, the analysis reveals several challenges of data collection systems for refrigeration systems in the supermarket industry as well.

Chen, Yimin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000338181655)↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

From Chills to Thrills: Revolutionizing Energy Efficiency and Load Flexibility in Supermarket Refrigeration

Open-vertical medium-temperature refrigerated display cases comprise nearly 50% of total case lineups in a typical supermarket, with more than 80% of their cooling load attributed to infiltration of warm and moist air from the surrounding space. The infiltration takes place across the air curtain system of the display case. While the air curtain acts as a thermal shield and as a cooling mechanism to maintain product temperature, it also entrains large amounts of heat and moisture from the adjacent space. Additionally, from food safety and quality standpoints, these fixtures are vulnerable to electric outages and traditionally cannot participate in load flexibility events. This paper describes key features of an innovative design of a self-contained, water-cooled, medium-temperature, open-vertical display case. The novel concept will eliminate the inefficient air curtain system and incorporate a hybrid radiant and low-airflow convective cooling design with a thermal-energy-storage-coupled heat exchanger integrated into the refrigeration circuit. The focus of this paper is on evaluating the thermal performance of the novel hybrid design in maintaining target product temperature. It presents thermal performance findings from thermo-fluid system modeling and robust state-of-the-art laboratory experiments used to validate those models. Load flexibility attributes from thermal energy storage are not discussed. A controlled-environment chamber at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was leveraged to validate the thermal performance of the novel technology. Final results from bench-scale experiments indicate the proposed design maintained mean product temperatures within food safety guidelines.

commercial refrigeration↗

From Chills to Thrills: Revolutionizing Energy Efficiency and Load Flexibility in Supermarket Refrigeration: Preprint

Open-vertical medium-temperature refrigerated display cases comprise nearly 50% of total case lineups in a typical supermarket, with more than 80% of their cooling load attributed to infiltration of warm and moist air from the surrounding space. The infiltration takes place across the air curtain system of the display case. While the air curtain acts as a thermal shield and as a cooling mechanism to maintain product temperature, it also entrains large amounts of heat and moisture from the adjacent space. Additionally, from food safety and quality standpoints, these fixtures are vulnerable to electric outages and traditionally cannot participate in load flexibility events. This paper describes key features of an innovative design of a self-contained, water-cooled, medium-temperature, open-vertical display case. The novel concept will eliminate the inefficient air curtain system and incorporate a hybrid radiant and low-airflow convective cooling design with a thermal-energy-storage-coupled heat exchanger integrated into the refrigeration circuit. The focus of this paper is on evaluating the thermal performance of the novel hybrid design in maintaining target product temperature. It presents thermal performance findings from thermo-fluid system modeling and robust state-of-the-art laboratory experiments used to validate those models. Load flexibility attributes from thermal energy storage are not discussed. A controlled-environment chamber at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was leveraged to validate the thermal performance of the novel technology. Final results from bench-scale experiments indicate the proposed design maintained mean product temperatures within food safety guidelines.

commercial refrigeration↗

Grid Interactive Micro-Distributed Refrigerated Display Case

Open-vertical medium-temperature refrigerated display cases comprise nearly 50% of total case lineups in a typical supermarket, with more than 80% of their cooling load attributed to infiltration of warm and moist air from the surrounding space. The infiltration takes place across the air curtain system of the display case. While the air curtain acts as a thermal shield and as a cooling mechanism to maintain product temperature, it also entrains large amounts of heat and moisture from the adjacent space. Additionally, from food safety and quality standpoints, these fixtures are vulnerable to electric outages and traditionally cannot participate in load flexibility events. This paper describes key features of an innovative design of a self-contained, water-cooled, medium-temperature, open-vertical display case. The novel concept will eliminate the inefficient air curtain system and incorporate a hybrid radiant and low-airflow convective cooling design with a thermal-energy-storage-coupled heat exchanger integrated into the refrigeration circuit. The focus of this paper is on evaluating the thermal performance of the novel hybrid design in maintaining target product temperature. It presents thermal performance findings from thermo-fluid system modeling and robust state-of-the-art laboratory experiments used to validate those models. Load flexibility attributes from thermal energy storage are not discussed. A controlled-environment chamber at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was leveraged to validate the thermal performance of the novel technology. Final results from bench-scale experiments indicate the proposed design maintained mean product temperatures within food safety guidelines.

commercial refrigeration↗

Speed Variation Based Power Regulation Concept for Dynamic Wireless Charging

On-road wireless charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in-motion could potentially reduce range anxiety or battery size with wide-spread deployment. The planning and implementation of such systems are greatly complicated due to their susceptibility to load variation inherent to traffic flow. Here, this paper proposes a method for derisking the potential for traffic slowdowns by compensating for reduced vehicle speed and investigates how implementation may affect system performance. A load modeling case study is presented at 200kW for a mile of high-speed roadway employing speed-based power regulation with results indicating average power usage and maximum car hosting capability can be reduced by 20% and increased by 30% respectively. An 85kHz power electronics model is developed based on designs and prototypes for an 11kW, 190m airgap static system and a 200kW dynamic wireless track. The simulation is validated in the 11kW experimental prototype and modified for 200kW operation to compare with simulated performance. Sensitivity studies are performed in MATLAB/Simulink to evaluate how parameters influence system performance and confirm the capability to reduce output power and maintain efficiency at 11 and 200kW. The static 11kW experimental system operates at 93.6% efficiency and multiple options exist to reduce power while maintaining efficiency greater than 90%. The capability to dynamically modify power output from WPT coils, in an experimentally validated simulation, enables techniques to significantly mitigate load variability due to reductions in vehicle speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A hybrid architecture for volt-var control in active distribution grids

Modern active distribution grids are characterized by the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). The proper coordination and scheduling of a large numbers of these small-scale and spatially distributed DERs is necessary, and warrants the use of novel distributed approaches. In this paper, we propose a hybrid volt-var control architecture for the distribution grid, which leverages existing centralized and local approaches to planning, decision making, and control, and augments it with distributed optimization and distributed control for DER management. First, we propose a convex model to describe the power physics of distribution grids of meshed topology and unbalanced structure, based on current injection and McCormick Envelopes. Second, we employ the distributed proximal atomic coordination (PAC) algorithm to coordinate DERs to provide voltage support. We implement volt-var optimization by optimally coordinating DERs including PV smart inverters and demand response. We present results using the IEEE-34 bus network, using real data from a distribution feeder in Hawaii, to model load and PV generation. Different levels of DER penetration and objective functions are simulated. Finally, our results show the need for the coordination of DERs to improve voltage profiles, even in networks with existing voltage control devices. Further, we show the need for flexible reactive power capabilities to achieve desired grid performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Semi-Supervised Disaggregation of Load Profiles at Transmission Buses with Significant Behind-the-Meter Solar Generations

It is of imperative interests for regional transmission organizations (RTOs) to effectively extract daily load profiles at transmission buses, which remains a gap in existing technology paradigm. This digest proposes an explicit yet efficient linear estimator, to disaggregate metered load profiles at buses with significant behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations in a data driven manner. The proposed estimator is based on utility zonal load profiles and proxy solar irradiance profiles, which in reality is the aggregated waveform at each transmission bus and equivalent to the mix of summed load profiles minus actual BTM solar generation. To overcome technical challenges in the lack of “ground truth” and validate the performance of supervised learning algorithms, we propose semi-supervised mechanisms with parameter tuning, and leverage the unique characteristics of zero-crossing points in BTM solar peaking behaviors.

machine leaning, behind-the-meter, power grid anal↗

Optimal Power Flow in DC Networks with Robust Feasibility and Stability Guarantees

With high penetrations of renewable generation and variable loads, there is significant uncertainty associated with power flows in DC networks such that stability and operational constraint satisfaction are of concern. Most existing DC network optimal power flow (DN-OPF) formulations assume exact knowledge of loading conditions and do not provide stability guarantees. Here, in contrast, this paper studies a DN-OPF formulation which considers both stability and operational constraint satisfaction under uncertainty. The need to account for a range of uncertainty realizations in this paper's robust optimization formulation results in a challenging semi-infinite program (SIP). The proposed solution algorithm reformulates this SIP into a computationally tractable problem by constructing a tight convex inner approximation of the stability set using sufficient conditions for the existence of a feasible and stable power flow solution. Optimal generator set-points are obtained by optimizing over the proposed convex stability set. The validity and effectiveness of the propose algorithm is demonstrated through various DC networks adapted from IEEE test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗