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DOE OSTI2025

Phase diagram of a bilayer superconductor under an in-plane magnetic field

We study a double layer superconductor in the presence of a parallel magnetic field Bby obtaining self-consistent solutions of the Bogoliubov-de Gennes equations, and also using the Pakrovsky- Talapov model for the free energy expressed in terms of the relative phase, namely the difference in the phases of the superconducting order parameters in the two layers. We find that with increasing B, a continuous transition occurs from the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) state, where the relative phase is constant, into a state which contains stripes of the BCS state separated by localized vortices in the relative phase. This state is predicted to manifest through oscillations in the amplitude of the superconducting gap and an alternating pattern of supercurrents. With increasing B, the BCS stripe state continuously evolves into the Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov state with linearly varying relative phase and a constant gap amplitude. Furthermore, these predictions apply to superconductivity in bilayer transition-metal-dichalcogenide systems with Ising spin-orbit coupling, and ought to be testable in a recently studied experimental system.

2-dimensional systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stability analysis of a one-dimensional multiphysics model of a molten salt fast reactor

Reactor designs with a fast neutron spectrum have recently moved into the research focus for possible Generation IV reactor concepts - a representative of which is the molten salt fast reactor (MSFR). In order to assess the safety and reliability of this reactor concept, it is necessary to obtain knowledge of the system behaviour. An important part of this research concerns the dynamical stability of the MSFR. Research regarding the MSFR stability so far has either been using linearized models for stability criteria or only been examining certain transients at fixed parameter values. This work delivers a comprehensive stability analysis for a non-linearized MSFR model, and a wide range of values for all relevant parameters. For this purpose, a one-dimensional MSFR model was set up, taking neutron kinetics and thermal hydraulics in the form of a system of differential equations into account. The stability of this model was investigated by means of the numerical tool MATCONT, which was used to monitor the evolution of a so-called fixed-point solution, here referring to the steady state at operating conditions of the system, while system parameters got varied. The MATCONT analyses showed no loss of stability for any of the considered parameter variations and no solutions that might co-exist in parallel with the steady-state fixed-point solution. Therefore these results indicate a stable fixed point to which all solution transients converge, making the considered MSFR model insusceptible to deviations from the equilibrium. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributionally Robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process with Moment-Based Ambiguity

In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust partially observable Markov decision process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations can be inferred using side information at the end of each period after an action being taken. We build an ambiguity set of the joint distribution using bounded moments via conic constraints and seek an optimal policy to maximize the worst-case (minimum) reward for any distribution in the set. We show that the value function of DR-POMDP is piecewise linear convex with respect to the belief state and propose a heuristic search value iteration method for obtaining lower and upper bounds of the value function. We conduct numerical studies and demonstrate the computational performance of our approach via testing instances of a dynamic epidemic control problem. Our results show that DR-POMDP can produce more robust policies under misspecified distributions of transition-observation probabilities as compared to POMDP but has less costly solutions than robust POMDP. The DR-POMDP policies are also insensitive to varying parameter in the ambiguity set and to noise added to the true transition-observation probability values obtained at the end of each decision period.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Velocity Dependence of Rate‐And‐State Friction in Granular Fault Gouge and Implications for Slow‐Slip Events

Abstract The standard rate‐and‐state friction (RSF) has extensively captured frictional behaviors, but it fails to explain the velocity dependence of frictional stability transition and widespread slow‐slip events (SSEs) in experiments and nature adequately. An alternative microphysical Chen‐Niemeijer‐Spiers (CNS) model can well describe the velocity dependence of frictional behaviors of granular gouges. Using the original CNS model, standard RSF parameters can be quantified microphysically. However, some micro‐parameters are not easy to estimate quantitatively, making it difficult to extrapolate to natural and experimental conditions. Here, we simplify the microphysically‐derived RSF parameters including direct effect a , evolution effect b , and critical slip distance D c , as well as equivalent values ( a eq , b eq , and D eq ). The simplified friction parameters directly illustrate their velocity dependence, namely the essentially constant a , a eq , and D c , negatively velocity‐dependent b and b eq , as well as varying D eq for different laws. They are roughly consistent with experimental results in various fault gouges. A modified CNS model is further derived from the original CNS model, establishing a direct link between the standard RSF and CNS models. The modified CNS model exhibits virtually identical frictional behaviors to the original CNS, but differs from the standard RSF at large velocity perturbations. Moreover, the linearized stability analysis indicates that the critical stiffness for the modified CNS model is velocity‐dependent. Compared with the standard RSF, the modified CNS model not only explains the velocity dependence of frictional stability transition, but also exhibits a more gradual transition for SSEs with a broader range of stiffness ratios.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strategies for microgrid operation under real-world conditions

Microgrids are an increasingly relevant technology for integrating renewable energy sources into electricity systems. Based on a microgrid implementation in California, in this study we investigate microgrid operation under real-world conditions. These conditions have not yet been considered in combination and encompass energy charges, demand charges, export limits, as well as uncertainty about future electricity demand and generation in the microgrid. Under these conditions, we evaluate the performance of two frequently applied groups of strategies for microgrid operation. The first group is composed of proactive strategies that optimize decisions based on forecasts of future electricity generation and demand. The second group includes reactive strategies that make operational decisions based exclusively on the current state of the microgrid. We evaluate the performance of the strategies under varying operational parameters, forecast accuracies, and microgrid configurations—well beyond our Californian showcase. Our results confirm the expectation that proactive strategies outperform reactive ones in the majority of settings. Yet, reactive strategies can perform better under short control intervals or under moderate prediction errors of PV generation or demand. Furthermore, the interplay between real-world conditions and operational strategies reveals several additional insights for research on microgrid operation. First, we find that demand charges and export limits decisively affect microgrid performance. Second, the impact of forecast errors is highly non-linear and non-monotonous. Third, escalating negative interactions between forecast errors and demand charges make proactive strategies benefit from longer control intervals. This result is contrary to existing best practice, which promotes short control intervals to minimize the impact of uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parameter inference from event ensembles and the top-quark mass

One of the key tasks of any particle collider is measurement. In practice, this is often done by fitting data to a simulation, which depends on many parameters. Sometimes, when the effects of varying different parameters are highly correlated, a large ensemble of data may be needed to resolve parameter-space degeneracies. An important example is measuring the top-quark mass, where other physical and unphysical parameters in the simulation must be profiled when fitting the top-quark mass parameter. We compare four different methodologies for top-quark mass measurement: a classical histogram fit similar to one commonly used in experiment augmented by soft-drop jet grooming; a 2D profile likelihood fit with a nuisance parameter; a machine-learning method called DCTR; and a linear regression approach, either using a least-squares fit or with a dense linearly-activated neural network. Despite the fact that individual events are totally uncorrelated, we find that the linear regression methods work most effectively when we input an ensemble of events sorted by mass, rather than training them on individual events. Although all methods provide robust extraction of the top-quark mass parameter, the linear network does marginally best and is remarkably simple. For the top study, we conclude that the Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty on current extractions of the top-quark mass from LHC data can be reduced significantly (by perhaps a factor of 2) using networks trained on sorted event ensembles. More generally, machine learning from ensembles for parameter estimation has broad potential for collider physics measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Reentrance in Frustrated Magnets: The Case of the Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 Pyrochlore

Reentrance, the return of a system from an ordered phase to a previously encountered less-ordered one as a controlled parameter is continuously varied, is a recurring theme found in disparate physical systems, yet its microscopic cause is often not investigated thoroughly. Here, through detailed characterization and theoretical modeling, we uncover the microscopic mechanism behind reentrance in the strongly frustrated pyrochlore antiferromagnet Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 . We use single crystal heat capacity measurements to expose that Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 exhibits multiple instances of reentrance in its magnetic field B vs temperature T phase diagram for magnetic fields along three cubic high symmetry directions. Through classical Monte Carlo simulations, mean field theory, and classical linear spin-wave expansions, we argue that the origins of the multiple occurrences of reentrance observed in Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 are linked to soft modes. These soft modes arise from phase competition and enhance thermal fluctuations that entropically stabilize a specific ordered phase, resulting in an increased transition temperature for certain field values and thus the reentrant behavior. Our work represents a detailed examination into the mechanisms responsible for reentrance in a frustrated magnet and may serve as a template for the interpretation of reentrant phenomena in other physical systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

FIRED (Fire Events Delineation): An Open, Flexible Algorithm and Database of US Fire Events Derived from the MODIS Burned Area Product (2001–2019)

Harnessing the fire data revolution, i.e., the abundance of information from satellites, government records, social media, and human health sources, now requires complex and challenging data integration approaches. Defining fire events is key to that effort. In order to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire, or the classic fire regime concept, we need to critically define fire events from remote sensing data. Events, fundamentally a geographic concept with delineated spatial and temporal boundaries around a specific phenomenon that is homogenous in some property, are key to understanding fire regimes and more importantly how they are changing. Here, we describe Fire Events Delineation (FIRED), an event-delineation algorithm, that has been used to derive fire events (N = 51,871) from the MODIS MCD64 burned area product for the coterminous US (CONUS) from January 2001 to May 2019. The optimized spatial and temporal parameters to cluster burned area pixels into events were an 11-day window and a 5-pixel (2315 m) distance, when optimized against 13,741 wildfire perimeters in the CONUS from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity record. The linear relationship between the size of individual FIRED and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) events for the CONUS was strong (R2 = 0.92 for all events). Importantly, this algorithm is open-source and flexible, allowing the end user to modify the spatio-temporal threshold or even the underlying algorithm approach as they see fit. We expect the optimized criteria to vary across regions, based on regional distributions of fire event size and rate of spread. We describe the derived metrics provided in a new national database and how they can be used to better understand US fire regimes. The open, flexible FIRED algorithm could be utilized to derive events in any satellite product. We hope that this open science effort will help catalyze a community-driven, data-integration effort (termed OneFire) to build a more complete picture of fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity study of hydrogen Soret transport in yttrium Hydride-Based nuclear fuel

Yttrium hydride is an excellent solid neutron moderator material for high temperature nuclear reactor applications due to its high hydrogen density and exceptional hydride stability at high temperatures. Despite these attractive characteristics, the details of how hydrogen behaves within yttrium hydride while temperature gradients exist are still not well understood. The evolution of the hydrogen composition profile resulting from a temperature gradient requires knowledge of hydrogen’s heat of transport, a critical parameter that has not yet been measured for this material. In this work, we perform hydride redistribution, hydrogen dissociation, and hydrogen leakage calculations while varying the Soret heat of transport of hydrogen in yttrium hydride to elucidate the sensitivity of hydride stability under temperature gradients to this parameter. This study analyzes hydride stability of a hypothetical uranium-yttrium hydride nuclear fuel design during operation of a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear reactor. Assuming U-YH x could be fabricated in a physically stabilized manner, this fuel system can likely maintain hydride stability while operating at very high power densities and temperatures. We find that even though the hydrogen dissociation pressure in the gas gap does vary by several percent as the heat of transport temperature parameter is varied, the hydrogen content in the U-YH x fuel meat is relatively insensitive to this parameter over the course of a high burnup fuel cycle; this is due to yttrium hydride’s excellent hydrogen retention under the high temperature conditions considered here. Here, this suggests that hydride stability analyses are insensitive to the value of the Soret heat of transport in U-YH x under steady state liquid metal-cooled reactor conditions. However, the susceptibility to internal gas overpressurization-induced stress-rupture of the cladding during a high temperature transient is more sensitive to this parameter due to the non-linear dependence of hydrogen gas dissociation pressure vs. composition and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Analysis of Offshore Wind-Farm-Induced Drag Effects on Coastal Upwelling Dynamics

Wind farms extract momentum from the atmospheric flow, generating wind-speed deficits both within the plant, and extending downstream. When located offshore, these deficits modulate air-sea coupling, potentially impacting coastal upwelling in sensitive regions. We investigate impacts of wind farms on coastal upwelling using kilometre-scale, three-way-coupled simulations with the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport system for the US West Coast. Wind-farm effects are represented by a generalised turbine drag formulation, an idealised, height-dependent body force whose magnitude is systematically varied. This approach isolates the leading-order fluid-dynamical response in a realistic coastal configuration. The atmospheric adjustment exhibits an approximately linear relation between drag force and wind-speed deficit, with wakes that expand downstream and increase in magnitude as drag increases. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea-surface-temperature anomalies reveals the emergence of a canonical dipole pattern under strong drag forcing. Subsurface diagnostics show consistent shoaling of the mixed layer and suppressed upward velocities in areas near wind-farm region, accompanied by compensating enhancements of shoaling closer to the coast. These results identify turbine drag as a control parameter in assessing interactions between wind-farm wake and coastal upwelling and provide scaling relationships for understanding offshore wind-farm effects on the coastal circulation dynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of isotope mass and transport for H-mode access in tritium containing plasmas at JET with ITER-like wall

The required heating power, $P_{\mathrm{LH}}$, to access the high confinement regime (H-mode) in tritium containing plasmas is investigated in JET with ITER-like wall at a toroidal magnetic field of $B_t = 1.8$ T and a plasma current of $I_p = 1.7$ MA. $P_{\mathrm{LH}}$, also referred to as the L-H power threshold, is determined in plasmas of pure tritium as well as mixtures of hydrogen with tritium (H-T) and mixtures of deuterium with tritium (D-T), and is compared to the L-H power threshold in plasmas of pure hydrogen and pure deuterium. It is found that, for otherwise constant parameters, $P_{\mathrm{LH}}$ is not the same in plasmas with the same effective isotope mass, $A_{\mathrm{eff}}$, when they differ in their isotope composition. Thus, $A_{\mathrm{eff}}$ is not sufficient to describe the isotope effect of $P_{\mathrm{LH}}$ in a consistent manner for all considered isotopes and isotope mixtures. The electron temperature profiles measured at the L-H transition in the outer half of the radius are very similar for all isotopes and isotope mixtures, despite the fact that the L-H power threshold varies by a factor of about six. This finding, together with the observation of an offset linear relation between the L-H power threshold, $P_{\mathrm{LH}}$, and an effective heat diffusivity, $\chi_{\mathrm{eff}}$, indicates that the composition-dependent heat transport in the low confinement mode (L-mode) determines, how much power is needed to reach the necessary electron temperatures at the edge, and hence $P_{\mathrm{LH}}$.

tritium plasmas↗

DOE OSTI2024

Linear Correlations of Gibbs Free Energy of REE Phosphates (Monazite, Xenotime, and Rhabdophane) and Internally Consistent Binary Mixing Properties

Rare Earth Elements (REE) phosphates (monazite, xenotime, and rhabdophane) are critical REE-bearing minerals typically formed in hydrothermal and magmatic ore deposits. The thermodynamic properties of those REE minerals are crucial to understanding the solubility, speciation, and transport of REE complexes. However, the standard-state Gibbs free energy of formation (∆G°f) values reported for these minerals in the literature vary by up to 25 kJ mol−1. Here, we present linear free energy relationships that allow the evaluation and estimation of the ∆G°f values at 25 °C and 1 bar for the three minerals from the ionic radius (rREE3+) and the non-solvation Gibbs free energy contribution to the REE3+ aqua ion (∆G°n, REE3+): ∆G°f,monazite − 399.71 rREE3+ = 1.0059 ∆G°n,REE3+ − 2522.51; ∆G°f,xenotime − 344.08 rREE3+ = 0.9909 ∆G°n,REE3+ − 2451.53; and ∆G°f,rhabdophane − 416.17 rREE3+ = 1.0067 ∆G°n, REE3+ − 2688.86. Moreover, based on the new dataset derived for REE end-members, we re-fitted the binary Margules parameter (W) from previous theoretical calculations into linear correlations: W + 0.00204 ∆G°’n,monazite = 39.3549 ∆V + 0.0641; W + 0.00255 ∆G°’n,xenotime = 25.4885 ∆V − 0.0062. The internally consistent thermodynamic properties of these REE phosphates are incorporated into the computer program Supcrtbl, which is available online at Zhu’s research website.

Pan, Ruiguang (ORCID:0000000324896545)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗

DOE OSTI2025

WEST L-mode record long pulses guided by predictions using Integrated Modeling

A new record was set on the WEST Tokamak, designed to operate long duration plasmas in a tungsten (W) environment, with an injected energy of 1.15 GJ and a plasma duration 364s. Scenario development was supported by integrated modeling using the High Fidelity Plasma Simulator (HFPS), the European IMAS-coupled version of JETTO/JINTRAC, which integrates physics-driven modules into a unified framework. In particular, a reduced model for Lower-Hybrid heating and Current-Drive (LHCD) and the quasi-linear turbulent transport model TGLF are crucial for long pulses predictions up to the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS). Using this workflow, a 100 s reference discharge was modeled and plasma kinetic profiles and loop voltage were quantitatively well matched. In preparation for the recent long duration experiments, non-inductive current-drive actuators (I P , n e , P LHCD ) were varied to determine the operational domain going towards fully non-inductive discharges. In particular, decreasing the plasma current is shown to ease the access to such conditions, with a careful monitoring of (n e , P LHCD ) to avoid machine limitations. In addition, post-prediction experiments conducted within the investigated parameter range validated the predicted dependencies and were shown to be in quantitative agreement. Exploratory work on the use of ECCD for MHD stability purpose is also introduced.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transport in Stochastic Media with Random Chord Length Distributions

Thermal radiation transport computations in binary Markovian random mixtures rely almost exclusively on the Levermore-Pomraning (LP) model which is obtained by applying a heuristic closure to the ensemble averaged random medium transport equation. The validity of this model has been extensively tested by comparing numerical results over a broad parameter range (material types and mixing parameters) against benchmark solutions in planar geometry. The conditions under which the LP-model provides useful results and when it breaks down are now well established, but work to date has been largely restricted to homogeneous mixing statistics, i.e., the mean chord lengths of both materials are taken to be spatially constant. In recent work, this limitation was relaxed by allowing the mean chord lengths and, in a consistent fashion, the volume fractions in the LP-model to vary spatially and in a follow-up investigation benchmark solutions were obtained by ensemble averaging results over material realizations sampled from a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). Numerical experiments in rod geometry with specifically linear and quadratic spatial dependence of chord lengths showed that the material averaged radiation intensities vary nonmonotonically with depth into the medium, in stark contrast to solutions obtained assuming uniform chord lengths. Moreover, depending on the local optical thickness and strength of scattering, the LP-model results showed locally more nuanced deviations from the benchmark solutions than was the case with constant chord lengths. These limited numerical investigations highlight the nontrivial qualitative and quantitative consequences of nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, in particular that closure approximations may not be uniformly valid or invalid over the problem domain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Coupled Hydraulic Fracturing Simulators Using Laboratory-Scale Experiments

In this work, we aim to verify the predictions of the numerical simulators, which are used for designing field-scale hydraulic stimulation experiments. Although a strong theoretical understanding of this process has been gained over the past few decades, numerical predictions of fracture propagation in low-permeability rocks still remains a challenge. Against this background, we performed controlled laboratory-scale hydraulic fracturing experiments in granite samples, which not only provides high-quality experimental data but also a well-characterized experimental set-up. Using the experimental pressure responses and the final fracture sizes as benchmark, we compared the numerical predictions of two coupled hydraulic fracturing simulators—CSMP and GEOS. Both the simulators reproduced the experimental pressure behavior by implementing the physics of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) and lubrication theory within a reasonable degree of accuracy. The simulation results indicate that even in the very low-porosity (1–2 %) and low-permeability (10 -18 m 2 - 10 -19 m 2 ) crystalline rocks, which are usually the target of EGS, fluid-loss into the matrix and unsaturated flow impacts the formation breakdown pressure and the post-breakdown pressure trends. Therefore, underestimation of such parameters in numerical modeling can lead to significant underestimation of breakdown pressure. The simulation results also indicate the importance of implementing wellbore solvers for considering the effect of system compressibility and pressure drop due to friction in the injection line. The varying injection rate as a result of decompression at the instant of fracture initiation affects the fracture size, while the entry friction at the connection between the well and the initial notch may cause an increase in the measured breakdown pressure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗